EVs So Disruptive, Gas Cars Will Be Obsolete In 2016

[surfingslovak]

Electric Cars So Disruptive, Gas Cars Will Be Obsolete In 2016, Says Futurist

Discuss

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHUzfw24oCk[/youtube]

 

[adric22]

Lets be realistic. EVs or plug-ins will not make gas cars obsolete until they are price competitive on the MSRP (not just total cost of ownership)

 

[surfingslovak]

Lets be realistic. EVs or plug-ins will not make gas cars obsolete until they are price competitive on the MSRP (not just total cost of ownership)

Yes, but that's actually Thomsen's main argument as well. He thinks that we will reach a tipping point by 2016 or 2017, and the gasoline drivetrain will be all but obsolete once we have reached $100/kWh. Since Tesla is already in the vicinity of $200/kWh today, Thomsen believes that we have a good shot at this.

Additionally, as he says in the keynote, there are several important trends, which will amplify this development. One of them is the advent of renewable energy generation. He quotes current industry figures from Germany, and notes that while 1 kW solar generation capacity costs 800 euro, the same generation capacity in a traditional fossil power plant would cost 1,900 euro today or more than double.

Thomsen goes on further, and says, the trends we have seen in terms of urbanization, the underlying demographic shift in many developed economies, and young people moving to the cities everywhere, will further aid this development. If the headline read that nobody will want to drive a gasoline car by 2016 or 2017, then this would have been closer to what Thomsen said in his keynote speech.

 

[johnrhansen]

I bet trucks will still run on fossil fuel. Probably LNG.

 

[surfingslovak]

I bet trucks will still run on fossil fuel. Probably LNG.

Yes, agreed! For pickup trucks or utility vehicles, we could see hybridization of the drivetrain, much like what the startup VIA Motors is doing. Lars Thomsen predicts that hybrids will play an important role in the transition to full EVs, but much like plasma TVs, they too will be rendered obsolete by superior technology. And that's full EVs and quick charging.

 

[TomT]

Let's get real. That is two years away! Perhaps if you also believe in the tooth fairy... Even 2026 is likely dreaming...

Electric Cars So Disruptive, Gas Cars Will Be Obsolete In 2016, Says Futurist

 

[surfingslovak]

Let's get real. That is two years sway! Perhaps if you also believe in the tooth fairy... Even 2026 is likely dreaming...

Electric Cars So Disruptive, Gas Cars Will Be Obsolete In 2016, Says Futurist

Fair enough, Tom, but have you read anything about the debate beyond the headline?

 

[adric22]

I bet trucks will still run on fossil fuel. Probably LNG.

I doubt it. LNG has some serious issues. Since it is in liquid form it has to be at extremely low temperatures. It is nearly impossible to make a tank that can hold the stuff and keep it at low temperature. The buses and other large commercial vehicles that use LNG deal with this problem by simply allowing the stuff to boil off and there is a pressure valve that releases it into the atmosphere. So if you let an LNG vehicle sit for a few days it will be out of fuel even if you never drove it. This isn't much of a problem for a bus or something that is driven every day. But the consumer would never put up with this issue.

CNG, on the other hand, is a good alternative for pickup trucks. Better yet, a hybrid-electric pickup that runs on CNG.

 

[johnrhansen]

Lng is only good for vehicles that use lots of fuel and run most of the time. Trucks are in that category. I wasn't talking about pickups.

I bet trucks will still run on fossil fuel. Probably LNG.

I doubt it. LNG has some serious issues. Since it is in liquid form it has to be at extremely low temperatures. It is nearly impossible to make a tank that can hold the stuff and keep it at low temperature. The buses and other large commercial vehicles that use LNG deal with this problem by simply allowing the stuff to boil off and there is a pressure valve that releases it into the atmosphere. So if you let an LNG vehicle sit for a few days it will be out of fuel even if you never drove it. This isn't much of a problem for a bus or something that is driven every day. But the consumer would never put up with this issue.

CNG, on the other hand, is a good alternative for pickup trucks. Better yet, a hybrid-electric pickup that runs on CNG.

 

[apvbguy]

it's time for me to get some cheap health insurance and then feed my unicorn

 

[TomT]

Yes, I read the entire article in detail as well as the references before I made my comments...

Fair enough, Tom, but have you read anything about the debate beyond the headline?

 

[surfingslovak]

Yes, I read the entire article in detail as well as the references before I made my comments...

Fair enough, Tom, but have you read anything about the debate beyond the headline?

Oh, good to hear. Many commenters on the article Business Insider syndicated have only read the headline, and perhaps couple of lines from the story. Which part of the prognosis do you find so objectionable?

it's time for me to get some cheap health insurance and then feed my unicorn

Haha, yes, I did purchase cheap insurance earlier this month. The unicorn must be mad though, since I totally forgot about it today ;-)

 

[WetEV]

Electric Cars So Disruptive, Gas Cars Will Be Obsolete In 2016, Says Futurist

Suppose someone, for discussion say Nissan, has battery costs already down to a lot less than $100/kWh. Costs, not price.

Even if this is true, Nissan couldn't ramp up production fast enough to supply 10% of the new car demand with batteries in 2016. Electric cars are already putting strain on the battery supply chain. Tesla is currently limited in production by battery availability. Rumor has it that Nissan is also currently limited by battery availability.

Nissan has sold a total of roughly 100,000 Leafs over the past three years. World wide auto sales are about 84 million. If Nissan could sell 100,000 Leafs next year, then double sales of electrics every two years, which would require a faster ramp of of battery production as many car sales would need more range than the Leaf, it would take 19 years to get to half the market... And the last half might be harder.

Even if the technical conditions are already in place for a disruption, it will take at least a decade, and probably more like several decades for it to happen.

 

[GeekEV]

Let's get real. That is two years sway! Perhaps if you also believe in the tooth fairy... Even 2026 is likely dreaming...

Electric Cars So Disruptive, Gas Cars Will Be Obsolete In 2016, Says Futurist

Fair enough, Tom, but have you read anything about the debate beyond the headline?

Keep in mind, "obsolete" does not mean "off the roads". There are still tons of obsolete CRT televisions out there, obsolete dumb cell phones, etc. It will be a LONG time before gas cars are off the road. However, even if you take that statement to mean that the majority (51%) of new car sales will be EVs or even PHEVs by 2016 - well, I still think that's optimistic.

 

[Stoaty]

There are still tons of obsolete CRT televisions out there, obsolete dumb cell phones, etc.

I am the proud owner of both of those devices. They will pry them from my cold dead hands. :twisted:

 

[GRA]

There are still tons of obsolete CRT televisions out there, obsolete dumb cell phones, etc.

I am the proud owner of both of those devices. They will pry them from my cold dead hands. :twisted:

They won't have to pry mine from my cold dead hands, but they won't be replaced until they can no longer do the job for which I bought them, or some new job which I require of them. At the moment, my cell phone (doesn't even have a camera) just turned 6, and still has its original battery. The TV is 9 years old and still works fine (with a digital converter box). Until some technology comes along which provides an extra capability that I can't get any other way and which I consider mandatory to have, I see no compelling reason to replace these.

As for EVs making ICEs obsolete by '16, I have books containing similar claims, only they were talking about 1916. Until EVs provide (or at least are perceived to provide) some essential extra capability without any serious disadvantages at a price that most people can afford, ICEs won't be obsolete. This article is silly.