Future battery replacement

[gsleaf]

Does anyone know what the chance is of being able to replace the Leaf battery 8-10 years down the road?

How about if you had purchased a Toyota Rav4 EV when it came out would it be possible to replace the batteries for it today? That might give me some indication of the possibility of replacing the Leaf batteries in the future.

 

[cwerdna]

I'm sure there's a possibility. The big questions are the cost for parts and labor, how many modules need to be replaced (all or just weak ones?) and whether there's a supply of used modules that would work together w/the existing modules.

 

[IBELEAF]

While I wonder about this as well, but just a wild guess that in 8-10 years Leaf will most likely be very outdated and not worth much, so investing $$$ in battery replacement might not be beneficial.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

While I wonder about this as well, but just a wild guess that in 8-10 years Leaf will most likely be very outdated and not worth much, so investing $$$ in battery replacement might not be beneficial.

no more or less than any other 10 year old car. remember, a new battery is exactly that, a new battery. what we can hope for is technology improves to the point where we can reduce the size of the modules, double them so charging would be the same but larger capacity, longer range.

if a new pack could be had for $5,000 it would go a long way towards refreshing an "old" car.

 

[LKK]

One thing folk often forget to consider is an electric drivetrain is massively more reliable than your typically ICE vehicle. So 8 years from now a simple battery replacement may be all you need to go for another 8 years, or more years of use. I'm betting by then batteries will have a lot more capacity, charge faster and cost a lot less.

 

[aqn]

One thing folk often forget to consider is an electric drivetrain is massively more reliable than your typically ICE vehicle.

That's more or less what I've been telling people. But while I'd love to believe that 100%, I have not seen any data to confirm that. I don't know if an EV is that much more predisposed to longevity, mechanically speaking.

Granted, an ICE leads a pretty harsh life: crazy explosions, crazy temperatures, etc. and the EV's drivetrain, certainly the LEAF's, has fewer moving components and a mechanically simpler support system (less cooling need, no emission control equipment, no high pressure system for a liquid fuel, etc.). However, whether a vehicle has an ICE or an electric motor, it's still a matter of moving a 3000+ lbs mass from rest and accelerating it up to and maintaining a high speed. Given that the work is equal, I don't see how the wear and tear on drivetrain components would be any less. The wear and stress would have to be near equivalent on tires, wheel bearings, drive shafts, differential, gear(s) and bearings, motor/engine bearings, etc.

 

[Randy]

You can't really make a comparison to the RAV4EV and 10 years-later-battery-availability because there was a lawsuit/settlement between Chevron and Panasonic/Toyota that made the RAV4EV batteries unavailable after the cars were sold...

 

[Nubo]

Does anyone know what the chance is of being able to replace the Leaf battery 8-10 years down the road?

How about if you had purchased a Toyota Rav4 EV when it came out would it be possible to replace the batteries for it today? That might give me some indication of the possibility of replacing the Leaf batteries in the future.

My guess is that the chance will be pretty good. The Smyrna, TN plant is set to go online this year, with a capacity many times that of the Oppama plant, and they will be making... LEAF type batteries.

It would seem that Nissan has a roadmap where the LEAF-style modules will be the foundation for their future additional electric models. Why re-invent the wheel? Think of the modules like LEGOs.

I'd hope for the future modules to have higher capacity but likely backwards-compatible with the existing fleet of Nissan electric vehicles.

Unless, of course, a new, obviously superior, disruptive battery chemistry comes along that can't be made backwards-compatible.

 

[LakeLeaf]

Does anyone know what the chance is of being able to replace the Leaf battery 8-10 years down the road?

It's an interesting question - but one that I don't think we can really answer.

Will the exact batteries in the 2011 Leaf be available in 2021? Probably - but it's unclear if they will be available from Nissan or just from Ebay.

Will battery improvements by Nissan be interchangeable with current technology? And if so, for how long? If you look at computers - memory, cpu's, drives, motherboards, etc. seem to keep evolving despite my desire to add today's memory density to yesterday's computer.

It's a rather innocent question, but it's interesting to speculate about how the technology will evolve. Will just today's battery technology be usable in today's cars, or is there the possibility that tomorrow's battery technology will be usable in today's cars. Of course the Ebay thing can be today's battery technology in today's car, only buying it well into tomorrow.

For the historians in the crowd - it will be interesting to track individual features of the Leaf and see how quickly the change over time. It would be fascinating to listen to everyone's projections about what features of the first Leaf/EV will evolve most quickly, and which will be around unchanged for the longest.

 

[surfingslovak]

You can't really make a comparison to the RAV4EV and 10 years-later-battery-availability because there was a lawsuit/settlement between Chevron and Panasonic/Toyota that made the RAV4EV batteries unavailable after the cars were sold...

Yes, but despite this unique situation and the very limited number of RAV4 EVs on the road, their owners persevered and found a way. I wouldn't be worried about the Leaf at all. There will be many of them in the wild, and if Nissan does not take care of these owners, someone else will. It's virtually guaranteed, especially if we hit 100K is sales with vehicles based essentially on the same generation of technology. And that won't take very long, you will see

150,000 of these (miles) were done on the original pack and 50,000 are on the replacement pack that was installed two years ago.
The car is performing great. It is a real work horse. I have not been to the dealer, or performed any service on it, since the battery pack was replaced.

http://www.evnut.com/rav_owner_200k.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[coqui]

There's someone on this forum (I don't remember who) that has a Nissan Pathfinder with several hundred thousand miles on it. That's an example of an ICE car with a lot of reliability.

While my warranty stops at 8 yr./100,000 mi., wouldn't Nissan get a LOT of "mileage" out of their first EV lasting as long? (sorry - no pun intended lol).

Most people trade or sell a vehicle way before 10 years (or when monthly mechanical repairs start to be greater than the monthly payment)...but that's an ICE vehicle. I sure think that the Leaf has the potential to last longer, so, I hope that there's an equal (or better) battery replacement available when degradation makes replacement imperative.

 

[lpickup]

I sure think that the Leaf has the potential to last longer, so, I hope that there's an equal (or better) battery replacement available when degradation makes replacement imperative.

That will certainly be an interesting thing. If we drive our LEAFs to the point where the range reaches our threshold for not being useful at all (for me that would go all the way down to about 40-50 miles I think) and we've gotten used to that range, how awesome will it feel to suddenly have double that range again!

 

[gsleaf]

Yes, but despite this unique situation and the very limited number of RAV4 EVs on the road, their owners persevered and found a way. I wouldn't be worried about the Leaf at all. There will be many of them in the wild, and if Nissan does not take care of these owners, someone else will. It's virtually guaranteed, especially if we hit 100K is sales with vehicles based essentially on the same generation of technology. And that won't take very long, you will see

150,000 of these (miles) were done on the original pack and 50,000 are on the replacement pack that was installed two years ago.
The car is performing great. It is a real work horse. I have not been to the dealer, or performed any service on it, since the battery pack was replaced.

http://www.evnut.com/rav_owner_200k.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

That's awesome! I figure if in today's world of very limited battery choice you can replace them for the Rav4, then you'll be very likely to be able to replace your Leaf's batter pack when the time comes.

 

[TomT]

Assuming, of course, that the crappy paint and interior haven't completely imploded by then! :lol:

While my warranty stops at 8 yr./100,000 mi., wouldn't Nissan get a LOT of "mileage" out of their first EV lasting as long? (sorry - no pun intended lol

 

[EricH]

TMost people trade or sell a vehicle way before 10 years (or when monthly mechanical repairs start to be greater than the monthly payment)...but that's an ICE vehicle. I sure think that the Leaf has the potential to last longer, so, I hope that there's an equal (or better) battery replacement available when degradation makes replacement imperative.

Another issue downstream, is that most ICE vehicles trade as used based on overall condition and mileage - period.
Battery EV's can be charged/used in different ways (say 5 years/50,000 miles at 100% charge with 2 "turtles"/month wears the battery pack more than the same time/mileage at 80% charge with zero turtles -- or Nissan wouldn't program the car for 80% charges). Since there's no way I can take a stranger at his word ("I never charged it to 100%, or did 5 QC's in one day - honest!"), I'd want a 3rd-party battery diagnostic performed before I could estimate the remaining life in the battery pack. So would any dealer before taking a Leaf as trade-in, no?

 

[electricfuture]

Trying to apply ICE mentality to an EV just doesn’t work. In my experience the technology with the least moving parts is usually quieter and has much less wear with the resulting minimal part failure. The Leaf has basically 2 moving parts: a spinning rotor in the electric motor that does not touch anything and a 1 gear transmission.

How can anyone possibly compare an EV’s simplicity to the hundreds of parts, many moving and rubbing against each other, in extreme temperatures of combustion, high temperature and pressure fluids and gases with a myriad of electronic and mechanical controls in the transmission and motor in an ICE?
Electric motors are extremely reliable with the reputation of lasting 100 years – as in motors in New York building elevators and hydroelectric dams. At 100,000 miles I know I can blow the dust out of the windings and it will be as efficient as when it was new. Electric motors don’t degrade over time and use like ICEs.

So what can wear out besides batteries? Shocks, struts, brakes and tires – that’s about it. You can always re-paint the car and replace the interior – I already put leather in mine. So with a new higher range lower cost battery pack (they are coming sooner than you think) the car would be better than new 10 years from now!

I had a Volvo for 25 years and by upgrading the radio, replacing shocks and struts it felt like a new car. Even with engine re-work that would not be necessary with the Leaf, the Volvo was very inexpensive to own considering original price and all maintenance work costs.

10 years from now you may be able to remove the cab and put an entirely new design on the "skate" where the batteries reside. How about that for an aftermarket mod!

 

[lpickup]

So what can wear out besides batteries? Shocks, struts, brakes and tires – that’s about it.

Oh believe me, I can think of plenty more things not specifically related to the drivetrain that could fail: power window switches/motors/regulators; AC compressor; coolant pump(s); wheel bearings; power steering components; headlight assemblies that seem to crap out after many years; how about the inverter and charger which are specific to EVs? There's already been some early fails of those components.

I do agree that the EV is far simpler. But if I look back at my gas vehicles' repair records I estimate that between 40-50% of the wear out items are NOT unique to gas vehicles. It WILL be cheaper, but not by a drastic amount.

 

[edatoakrun]

...Since there's no way I can take a stranger at his word ("I never charged it to 100%, or did 5 QC's in one day - honest!"), I'd want a 3rd-party battery diagnostic performed before I could estimate the remaining life in the battery pack. So would any dealer before taking a Leaf as trade-in, no?

I've never traded a car into a dealer, and don't understand why anyone would.

In terms of a private party sale, which is how I'd expect to sell my LEAF, the Battery verification process, should only require a test drive.

I doubt the buyer will care about the history of QC or turtle events, just the current battery condition.

So, I'd expect, after the price and all other terms are agreed on, an extended test drive, rather than an inspection, might become customary, if no accurate monitor of (IE, Phil's LEAFSCAN) battery capacity is available.

I'd choose the a section of 80 mph freeway nearby, and in 30-some minutes, it would be apparent to the buyer, whether my statements of available battery capacity, were truthful.

Of course, if there was a QC at the VLBW end of the drive, it would be far more convenient, for the buyer.

 

[etrans]

This is an important question. Aside from normal wear items (shocks, etc.) I would expect the far simpler drivetrain to hold up very well. Most new ICE cars are capable of 200K+ miles, the Leaf would probably need a new battery pack at 100,000. We are hoping that by then it will be cheaper and higher capacity so restoring the car to better than new. Does anyone know how complicated it is to change out the entire battery? Was it engineered to be relatively easy or is it so integrated into the car that it becomes a major rebuild?

 

[cwerdna]

I've never traded a car into a dealer, and don't understand why anyone would.

In terms of a private party sale, which is how I'd expect to sell my LEAF, the Battery verification process, should only require a test drive.

It's because it can be a pain in the butt and time consuming to sell a car. You have to spend a bunch of time responding to ads, meeting for test drives (sometimes w/people who are very bad drivers), etc. and then it takes time to finalize the transaction. For some, there are also personal safety issues, which is understandable.

For one of my friends who I recently got into a new '11 Prius, her old car (an old Accord) was worth very little and she was busy. She really didn't have the time and and as a single woman, she was concerned about her safety. The Toyota dealer offered very little (~$700 or $750). I had her take it to Honda dealer next door and they offered her $1500, so she went for it.

There also can be guilt issues if you're selling a problematic car.

I've sold 3 myself, but the last one was relatively painless w/my Z being sold to a Nissan dealer. I didn't trade in. I sold it to them. I was short on time due to an upcoming move (would cost me $1000 to ship it enclosed w/a shipper I trusted and used before) and getting few responses. I took it to a used car dealership that responded to my CL ad and then to 2 Nissan dealers.

In some states (not CA), trading in saves on sales tax on a new car. See http://www.edmunds.com/car-buying/what-fees-should-you-pay.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.