Future Decision for Leaf Owner (to invest or not)

[racerkit]

Let say you are into the 10 or 11th year driving the Leaf with 150,000 mile on the leaf. The cars has been great, saving you $24K in gas (assuming $4/gal at 25MPG). All other maintenance cost has been minimum, and expect so going forward. Now the battery capacity is degraded to 60%. Replacing the 24KWh battery will make the car whole again. The question is at what cost of the battery replacement will current Leaf owners make the decision to keep the Leaf or Junk it?

a) $5000 (I'd definitely invest, another $20K+ in gas saving for the next 10yrs)
b) $10,000 (It's more difficult decision depending on one's financial situation)
c) $15,000 (It depends on other competitive cars/ available at that time)
d) $20,000 (Probably not, but I will still keep the Leaf with only 50Mile range capacity)

What would you do?

 

[yoyofella]

I wouldn't change the pack.

I think we all fully expect the EVs on sale 10+ years from now to have a much longer range. Unless the replacement pack can approach the range of EVs on sale at that time, it'll be a hard choice to keep driving such a limited range vehicle.

However, if I have a teenager of driving age around that time, I'll definitely keep the car and let the teenager drive it. I see the 50 mile range as a "feature". Much harder for someone to get into trouble in a car that only goes 40~50 miles!

 

[TomT]

The technology of both the batteries AND the vehicle itself will have changed so much in 10 or 11 years, I'd not spend much to update it and would likely just replace it.

Let say you are into the 10 or 11th year driving the Leaf with 150,000 mile on the leaf. The cars has been great, saving you $24K in gas (assuming $4/gal at 25MPG). All other maintenance cost has been minimum, and expect so going forward. Now the battery capacity is degraded to 60%. Replacing the 24KWh battery will make the car whole again. The question is at what cost of the battery replacement will current Leaf owners make the decision to keep the Leaf or Junk it?

a) $5000 (I'd definitely invest, another $20K+ in gas saving for the next 10yrs)
b) $10,000 (It's more difficult decision depending on one's financial situation)
c) $15,000 (It depends on other competitive cars/ available at that time)
d) $20,000 (Probably not, but I will still keep the Leaf with only 50Mile range capacity)

What would you do?

 

[occ]

a) for sure. But I would also put down $10K for 200miles replacement pack....Of course, I'm hoping that 200mile replacement pack would be cheaper than $10K by 10 years. The LEAF is good enough for me/family for the next 20yrs.

 

[adric22]

I wouldn't change the pack.

I think we all fully expect the EVs on sale 10+ years from now to have a much longer range. Unless the replacement pack can approach the range of EVs on sale at that time, it'll be a hard choice to keep driving such a limited range vehicle.

However, if I have a teenager of driving age around that time, I'll definitely keep the car and let the teenager drive it. I see the 50 mile range as a "feature". Much harder for someone to get into trouble in a car that only goes 40~50 miles!

Agree 100%. My Leaf will be paid off in 6 more years. I had a 3 year lease which I'm nearly past the 1st year. So 2 more years on lease. At that point, I'll buy the car for the residual on a 5 year loan. That will cut my current car payment in half for the last 5 years. When it is paid of, the car will be 8 years old. My daughter will be getting her license around that time. So it can be her car. The limited range will be a feature to keep her close by until she is a bit older and more responsible.

I seriously doubt Nissan will give us a choice of an upgrade battery. Doesn't make good business sense for them when they could just sell you a new car. So I doubt it will be a good investment to replace the battery in a Leaf unless it costs $5,000 or less at that point.

However, we can't really predict the future. We all hope battery ranges will increase in a few years, but there is no guarantee of that. We must always consider the possibility that an affordable EV 10 years from now may have the same range as existing models.

 

[davewill]

If the reliability of the rest of the vehicle looks good, I'd certainly go to $10,000, maybe more. What I'm expecting to do is to find that third parties are reconditioning packs by that time, replacing problem cells for much less money than a new pack.

 

[Herm]

In 10 years aftermarket replacement modules will be available.. and probably "cheap", buy 48 modules and rebuild your pack in one afternoon. Return the old modules for the core charge.

Hopefully lots of manufacturers will make compatible cells so the costs come down... hopefully not EVERY single automaker chooses a different form factor.

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

I'd put money on it that what will compel us to replace these cells is not that they reach the end of their life but rather a much more energy dense version comes on the market.

 

[Yodrak]

Let say you are into the 10 or 11th year driving the Leaf with 150,000 mile on the leaf. The cars has been great, saving you $24K in gas (assuming $4/gal at 25MPG). All other maintenance cost has been minimum, and expect so going forward. Now the battery capacity is degraded to 60%. Replacing the 24KWh battery will make the car whole again. The question is at what cost of the battery replacement will current Leaf owners make the decision to keep the Leaf or Junk it?

Tell me what cars are going to be like 10 years from now, in particular what electric cars are going to be like, and I might have some idea about what I'd do with my 10-year-old Leaf in those circumstances.

Assuming that nothing changes - a very poor assumption - I'd replace the battery pack.

 

[EdmondLeaf]

I would like to be informed optimist, but there are so many things that we do not know. I am comfortable what I got, will not change anything, and drive as long as it runs and worry later when I need to.

 

[Stanton]

I would like to be informed optimist, but there are so many things that we do not know. I am comfortable what I got, will not change anything, and drive as long as it runs and worry later when I need to.

Well put!

 

[charlie1300]

If you had a 10 year old ICE with 150,000 miles and the engine blew, would you replace the engine or say, gee I got my money's worth on rhis car, time for a new ride. I think it's the same question. Unless you view the 2011Leaf as a "classic car" that is appreciating in value, most folks would get the new ride.

 

[jkirkebo]

If you had a 10 year old ICE with 150,000 miles and the engine blew, would you replace the engine or say, gee I got my money's worth on rhis car, time for a new ride. I think it's the same question. Unless you view the 2011Leaf as a "classic car" that is appreciating in value, most folks would get the new ride.

Yeah, but no point in junking it. Just sell the Leaf to someone who doesn't need more than 60% of the range. For example, to someone commuting 60 miles round trip with free EVSE access at work. It would make a great, cheap commuter car for them.

 

[ENIAC]

I seriously doubt that the OP scenario will play out as described. I suspect we'll actually be replacing individual modules in the pack over time. The new modules (8 or so years from now) will have more Wh storage capacity than our present modules. So in 10 years, if you still have your 2011 LEAF, it may actually have a bit more range than when it was new, even though most of the battery modules are original.

 

[DaveEV]

I seriously doubt that the OP scenario will play out as described. I suspect we'll actually be replacing individual modules in the pack over time. The new modules (8 or so years from now) will have more Wh storage capacity than our present modules. So in 10 years, if you still have your 2011 LEAF, it may actually have a bit more range than when it was new, even though most of the battery modules are original.

While that would be nice, in practice usable capacity of the pack is limited to the lowest performing module.

Though I did read some news a while back about a company working to build a device that would automatically draw more current from the cells with the most capacity when discharging and supply more current to the cells with the most capacity when charging.

The difficulty in building such a device is doing it cheap enough while being able to handle high levels of current.

 

[TRONZ]

I have never owned any car for ten years. I think my record is 4. But you never know with a young driver coming online is 6 years. He really likes his bright orange tuned LEAF in Grand Tourismo 5.