Gasoline May Rise Above $5 a Gallon

[dgpcolorado]

$4.06 yesterday at my corner gas station. Maybe $4.00 if I looked for the best prices. Anyone know what's been driving the big runup (ca. $.50/gal.) in the past month? I heard about a couple of refinery shutdowns, but IIRC they were out of state so don't think that would affect California. And crude prices have gone up some, but nowhere near enough to cause that big a boost.

I've been puzzled by that also. Oil prices have remained fairly constant and high in recent months. My sense is that the dip in gasoline prices that is currently unwinding was due to reduced demand not lower oil prices, and that gasoline prices are now getting back to where they "ought" to be wrt crude oil prices.

 

[KJD]

Read a great article on this subject today - Why gasoline prices remain high despite the oil boom.

According to the statistics presented by J. David Hughes at the [American Geophysical Union] session, we are now drilling 25,000 wells per year just to bring production back to the levels of the year 2000, when we were drilling only 5,000 wells per year.

Drill Baby Drill Fails -
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013-02-15/drill-baby-drill-fails-why-gasoline-prices-remain-high-despite-oil-boom" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

i think gas prices tend to drop in the colder months because so much of the NE still relies on fuel oil and it can be a big crunch to pay for both, so the oil companies gives us a bit of a "break" plus less demand makes also is part of it.

i have long since stopped correlating the price of oil or its expected supply to the price of gasoline

 

[KJD]

i have long since stopped correlating the price of oil or its expected supply to the price of gasoline

The correlation may not be a straight one to one relationship but the trends do follow each other pretty close.

http://fuelgaugereport.aaa.com/?redirectto=http://fuelgaugereport.opisnet.com/index.asp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

i have long since stopped correlating the price of oil or its expected supply to the price of gasoline

The correlation may not be a straight one to one relationship but the trends do follow each other pretty close.

http://fuelgaugereport.aaa.com/?redirectto=http://fuelgaugereport.opisnet.com/index.asp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

ahh, no it doesnt.

if you take the national average you will find that it does vaguely correlate but lets look at regional pricing and see how well it correlates.

when WA was paying $4.25 a gallon last March (highest in the nation) and everyone else was at or below $3, how did that correlate?

we were told at the time it was due to shortages (that did not materialize) because of a refinery fire (where 80% of what they manufactured went into airplanes, not cars...)

then we settled into the high 3's just long enough for CA to have supply issues so the price of our gas went up again (based on the expected shortages from CA which uses its own blend of gasoline that is used nowhere else...) back over $4.

during all this time, I am pretty sure the price of crude was rather static

 

[scottf200]

i have long since stopped correlating the price of oil or its expected supply to the price of gasoline

The correlation may not be a straight one to one relationship but the trends do follow each other pretty close.

http://fuelgaugereport.aaa.com/?redirectto=http://fuelgaugereport.opisnet.com/index.asp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I see patterns as well. A couple exceptions but patterns over a couple years worth of data.

UK - Petrol prices: Why are they rising?

 

[scottf200]

Another interesting perspective I thought by looking at other countries as global supply and demand affect us all.

I put the UK chart from the article below in my previous post so it could be visually compared to the USA gasbuddy one.

UK - Petrol prices: Why are they rising?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21547684" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[Nekota]

And to be blunt, we have no realistic chance to burn it all due to greenhouse gas concerns.

Agreed. Unfortunately, the penalty for burning coal (or oil, for that matter) lags by so long that we are likely to burn more than we should. Perhaps we have already passed that point.

[tirade on]

Perhaps? In my biased opinion we passed the point of what we should burn roughly 75 years ago. We passed the point of what we can compensate for burning about 20 years ago. Sadly, we are now past the point of being able to fully preserve our beautiful planet no matter how desperately our children and grandchildren try to undo our folly.

In my dreams, oil should cost $1000/barrel, and it should be illegal to mine coal anywhere in the world. In my far more probable nightmares, no future generation of human beings on this planet will ever have a life as easy or as pleasant as ours.

[tirade off]

Ray

I'll add in that burning natural gas isn't the answer either. With methane a 20x worse greenhouse gas than CO2 a loss rate or escape rate of 5% makes natural gas worse than coal. Now try to find figures on how much natural gas gets leaked. No spill to clean up so it's practically invisible.

 

[Viktor]

The sooner we are going to see European gas prices here in the states - the sooner we start moving in the only available for us direction of conservation and fundamental research that hopefully solve renewable energy problems. I say - put a tax on the gas and bring the price to at least 6-7$ per gallon. Make tax fluctuate to keep the price at let's say 7$ a gallon and use the money for battery research, solar panels improvements, low temperature nuclear fusion etc.

 

[dgpcolorado]

The sooner we are going to see European gas prices here in the states - the sooner we start moving in the only available for us direction of conservation and fundamental research that hopefully solve renewable energy problems. I say - put a tax on the gas and bring the price to at least 6-7$ per gallon. Make tax fluctuate to keep the price at let's say 7$ a gallon and use the money for battery research, solar panels improvements, low temperature nuclear fusion etc.

While I'd like to see that, so long as it was implemented gradually to reduce economic dislocation, good luck getting such a plan, or even a generic carbon tax, through Congress!

We as a society are too short-sighted to do something so sensible. And it makes for too easy a target for political demagogues to exploit.

 

[MrIanB]

What is gasoline??

Ian B

2011 Chili owner.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

It will be great tosee how well Estonias "all in" concept with EVs plays out. Might be just what the World needs to see to push EVs over the hump

 

[GRA]

I'll add in that burning natural gas isn't the answer either. With methane a 20x worse greenhouse gas than CO2 a loss rate or escape rate of 5% makes natural gas worse than coal. Now try to find figures on how much natural gas gets leaked. No spill to clean up so it's practically invisible.

I did read a report in the past week or so about the leakage rate in one NG drilling (fracking) area. IIRR it was around 2-3%. They were looking to see what needed to be done to reduce it, and whether that was typical or an outlier. Unfortunately I don't remember where I read it, so can't post a link.

 

[OPECsux]

Gas prices will go down slightly in the short term but will ultimately trend upwards.

First, there are no new refineries being built and in the past few years we have had refineries shut down, the reduction in refining will keep prices high.

Next is "Drill Baby Drill", this scheme will fail as the greedy oil companies don't care where the crude comes from cause other countries are willing to pay more than us for it, (thanks Federal Reserve, the money you print isn't worth the paper it's printed on).

The keystone pipeline will not help the pricing situation in the U.S. cause the oil sands will be refined in Lousiana and sold on the world market, something that is not possible now without paying excessive transportation cost. So the pipeline will really benefit the fatcats and the poor and middle class (99%) will continue to be screwed.

**** all these guys: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oil_exploration_and_production_companies" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
and drive an EV. I don't know, or care how much a gallon of gas is anymore and loving it!! Can't wait till the day EV cost is advanced enough and low enough to bankrupt them. When the technology is developed I hope that it is made available to all and not just the patent being sold the highest bidder (remember Ovanic aka Cobasys).

 

[mkjayakumar]

++million

 

[derkraut]

Gas prices will go down slightly in the short term but will ultimately trend upwards.

First, there are no new refineries being built and in the past few years we have had refineries shut down, the reduction in refining will keep prices high.

Next is "Drill Baby Drill", this scheme will fail as the greedy oil companies don't care where the crude comes from cause other countries are willing to pay more than us for it, (thanks Federal Reserve, the money you print isn't worth the paper it's printed on).

The keystone pipeline will not help the pricing situation in the U.S. cause the oil sands will be refined in Lousiana and sold on the world market, something that is not possible now without paying excessive transportation cost. So the pipeline will really benefit the fatcats and the poor and middle class (99%) will continue to be screwed.

**** all these guys: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oil_exploration_and_production_companies" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
and drive an EV. I don't know, or care how much a gallon of gas is anymore and loving it!! Can't wait till the day EV cost is advanced enough and low enough to bankrupt them. When the technology is developed I hope that it is made available to all and not just the patent being sold the highest bidder (remember Ovanic aka Cobasys).

Well.....There you go again. :lol: Of course, you are entitled to your opinion. Your statements are based upon?????

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

EVs wont bankrupt big oil. they will simply wait for the right time then come in with 3 days of profits and build a massive public charging system that we will flock to. They do have too much money to fail

 

[OPECsux]

EVs wont bankrupt big oil. they will simply wait for the right time then come in with 3 days of profits and build a massive public charging system that we will flock to. They do have too much money to fail

Or they implode crude and start selling gas at $1 a gallon. I went alittle overboard before, there is a need for petrochemicals but burning it for transport has to end.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

This thread certainly has been quiet lately. Little wonder, with gas looking like it's headed under $3 I'm wondering why I bothered with all this EV stuff :lol:

I caught a comment in passing the other day someone made on Meet the Press, nothing to back this up, I don't even recall who said it, that a budget compromise is likely to include some movement on tobacco and gas taxes. Curious if anyone else heard about this. A period of lower gas prices would be a good time politically to sneak in a tax increase.

 

[todatsu]

This thread certainly has been quiet lately. Little wonder, with gas looking like it's headed under $3 I'm wondering why I bothered with all this EV stuff :lol:

My thoughts exactly !

I'm not envious that gas has dropped about 50 cents in the last few weeks, that will stimulate the overall economy.

What I do lose sleep over is the cost of electricity going up. It is such a bargain right now. More and more people are driving EVs, and just like Microsoft Windows attracts viruses, so as EVs become widespread there will be big incentives to raise the cost of our "juice."

When I tell people the electricity cost per mile, they are not surprised, but rather, they do not believe it could be right. Things too good to be true, they don't seem to last.

:?