GM developing 200 mile, $30k EV??

[DanCar]

http://www.transportation.anl.gov/pdfs/TA/57.pdf

23.5% of the cost is for dealers. Wow, Tesla is making out very well. Thanks for the link.

 

[GRA]

http://www.transportation.anl.gov/pdfs/TA/57.pdf

23.5% of the cost is for dealers. Wow, Tesla is making out very well. Thanks for the link.

It doesn't all go to the dealers. Another version of the Vyas et al chart I have breaks it down as 20% distribution, 3.5 % advertising.

 

[smkettner]

http://www.transportation.anl.gov/pdfs/TA/57.pdf

23.5% of the cost is for dealers. Wow, Tesla is making out very well. Thanks for the link.

Not necessarily. Tesla has costs also that would otherwise be the dealer burden.

 

[LEAFfan]

Ok, let's get real here. The OP who started this thread needs to change the title. For those of you that didn't read the original article, that was the title. BUT, when you read the article, it says GM is going to price it about the same as the Volt. The Volt is not $30K! And remember, these prices are before any incentives which may or may not be available at a later date.

 

[edatoakrun]

http://www.transportation.anl.gov/pdfs/TA/57.pdf

23.5% of the cost is for dealers. Wow, Tesla is making out very well. Thanks for the link.

Tesla's business model is far more interesting than it's cars, IMO.

If Elon Musk can do to the car business, what Sam Walton did to retail sales, he will have produced a significant change in the American economy.

The result being, huge profits for Tesla (and any other manufactures who can dump their own dealerships) slightly lower car prices for consumers, and tens of thousands of employees of the current inefficient dealership auto distribution system out of work, or employed at much lower wages.

Back on topic, I think the "200 mile, $30k EV" ($30 k before incentives, and 200 miles of practical range at freeway speeds) be available from a number of manufactures by ~2023, but both Tesla's and GM's for getting there in the next few years are probably hype.

IMO, much significant will be when the first manufacturer can produce the "120 mile, $30k DC capable EV" ($30 k before incentives, and 120 miles of practical range at freeway speeds) and sell it profitably in large numbers.

I'd say Nissan is the odds-on favorite to be that BEV manufacturer, when that happens, by ~2017.

 

[SanDust]

Don't see how that is relevant.

The further the EV goes the more credits you get. The more credits you get the more Tundras and Silverados you can sell.

No, you don't. Manufacturing costs only make up about 50% of the MSRP of a car. For a breakdown, see http://www.transportation.anl.gov/pdfs/TA/57.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

You need to do a little work understanding costs. You're treating ex post facto averages as fixed costs. This is obviously untrue. Adding $500 to a vehicle's interior doesn't change your ad rate just as advertising more doesn't change your cost of manufacturing the vehicle.

 

[SanDust]

Tesla's business model is far more interesting than it's cars, IMO.
...
Back on topic, I think the "200 mile, $30k EV" ($30 k before incentives, and 200 miles of practical range at freeway speeds) be available from a number of manufactures by ~2023, but both Tesla's and GM's for getting there in the next few years are probably hype.

IMO, much significant will be when the first manufacturer can produce the "120 mile, $30k DC capable EV" ($30 k before incentives, and 120 miles of practical range at freeway speeds) and sell it profitably in large numbers.

I'd say Nissan is the odds-on favorite to be that BEV manufacturer, when that happens, by ~2017.

I have trouble seeing how the Tesla model scales.

Agree that Tesla won't have a 200 mile EV for $30K anytime soon. Hard to see how Tesla makes any car for $30K much less an EV with a 200 mile range. Doesn't have the scale. GM has the scale but it's hard to see how it can make a 200 mile EV for $30K either. My guess, as mentioned above, is that if GM brings to market a 200 mile EV that EV will come at a higher price point.

Agree that a 120 mile range EV for $30K would be more practical. Not sure if it would sell better than a higher performance model with more range though. I think that's the question. My guess is that GM and Nissan will get there at about the same time. Which one is technically first will depend on all kinds of factors. Could be either. For GM timing may be determined by the availability of the new platform. For Nissan the timing may be determined by progress on the battery front (personally I would not buy any EV that didn't have a TMS).

 

[DanCar]

... "200 mile, $30k EV" ($30 k before incentives, and 200 miles of practical range at freeway speeds) ...snip..., but both Tesla's and GM's for getting there in the next few years are probably hype.

Tesla hasn't said that. What Elon Musk has said is a 200 mile range car for under $40K by 2016/2017. Tesla may have also said a $30K, but without range or date qualifier. The $30K will probably be 160 mile "Tesla" range and late 2017 at the earliest. So 4 years away.
Link about Tesla range: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_S" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[TRONZ]

This is entirely about nervous Institutional Investors. A lot of VERY big money is asking GM a question they thought they would never get asked; "Is GM going to remain America's top car company?". Powerful people are starting to shrug. GM was on top globally until 2007 and now Tesla has swept in from the flanks and running wild through THE future car sector GM can't even find on a corporate map. Nissan is in it and playing it right, but this is about America's top car company and Tesla's vertical launch into the market. Hedge funds are stark raving mad at how "industry" (GM/XOM) advised them to short TSLA and go long on a made up "put-a-plug-on-a-hybrid-and-call-it-an-EV" strategy. Epic Fail! These people DO NOT lose money well, missed the ground floor on TSLA and now having some very choice words with company insiders. Basically; "You were wrong!!! Why should we stick with GM?!?"

When a company suddenly starts spraying out this much foam (vaporware), there must be a heck of a fire going on somewhere.

 

[Boomer23]

Ok, let's get real here. The OP who started this thread needs to change the title. For those of you that didn't read the original article, that was the title. BUT, when you read the article, it says GM is going to price it about the same as the Volt. The Volt is not $30K! And remember, these prices are before any incentives which may or may not be available at a later date.

I added two (2) question marks to the thread title, going the article title one better.

 

[Berlino]

Tesla hasn't said that. What Elon Musk has said is a 200 mile range car for under $40K by 2016/2017. Tesla may have also said a $30K, but without range statement.

It's understandable that there can be confusion at times between official Tesla Press releases, Elon Musk tweets, and Musk's off-the-cuff remarks.

iirc, Elon once stated at a presentation in Norway that Tesla was to release an adapter allowing their vehicles to use CHAdeMO stations, but has there been any official news about it since?

 

[GRA]

Don't see how that is relevant.

The further the EV goes the more credits you get. The more credits you get the more Tundras and Silverados you can sell.

No, you don't. Manufacturing costs only make up about 50% of the MSRP of a car. For a breakdown, see http://www.transportation.anl.gov/pdfs/TA/57.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

You need to do a little work understanding costs. You're treating ex post facto averages as fixed costs. This is obviously untrue. Adding $500 to a vehicle's interior doesn't change your ad rate just as advertising more doesn't change your cost of manufacturing the vehicle.

Obviously, these are averages. But AFAIA, all the main companies are buying battery cells but assembling the packs themselves, so they are incurring the assembly and installation costs (plus post-assembly testing?), plus they're paying the markup from their suppliers who have included their own costs, transportation costs etc. And since the battery cells plus the packs are the single most expensive component of the car, it's clear that any increase in pack cost will have an out-sized effect on MSRP. It may not be double, but it's going to be a very large increment.

 

[GRA]

Back on topic, I think the "200 mile, $30k EV" ($30 k before incentives, and 200 miles of practical range at freeway speeds) be available from a number of manufactures by ~2023, but both Tesla's and GM's for getting there in the next few years are probably hype.

IMO, much significant will be when the first manufacturer can produce the "120 mile, $30k DC capable EV" ($30 k before incentives, and 120 miles of practical range at freeway speeds) and sell it profitably in large numbers.

I'd say Nissan is the odds-on favorite to be that BEV manufacturer, when that happens, by ~2017.

The thing is, as they currently exist a '200 mile' range BEV is a '120 miles of practical range at freeway speeds' car. Or even less, late in life in less than ideal conditions.

 

[LEAFfan]

Ok, let's get real here. The OP who started this thread needs to change the title. For those of you that didn't read the original article, that was the title. BUT, when you read the article, it says GM is going to price it about the same as the Volt. The Volt is not $30K! And remember, these prices are before any incentives which may or may not be available at a later date.

I added two (2) question marks to the thread title, going the article title one better.

LOL, that doesn't help much. How about changing the $30k to $35k which would be much more realistic and what the article said. Isn't the Volt now around $35k-36k after the $5k reduction?

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Near as I can tell 4 mi/kwh is an immutable barrier of EVs. Tesla did what they did in part by making a fairly large car. It will be interesting to see if they or anyone else, including GM, can scale down the size at all to meet this goal... or maybe EVs wind up being larger cars, which would be something of a delicious irony.

 

[smkettner]

Near as I can tell 4 mi/kwh is an immutable barrier of EVs.

Here is the design sketch for GM:

200 / 4 = 50 kWh usable battery capacity.

The rest would be off the shelf production.

 

[SanDust]

Obviously, these are averages. But AFAIA, all the main companies are buying battery cells but assembling the packs themselves, so they are incurring the assembly and installation costs (plus post-assembly testing?), plus they're paying the markup from their suppliers who have included their own costs, transportation costs etc. And since the battery cells plus the packs are the single most expensive component of the car, it's clear that any increase in pack cost will have an out-sized effect on MSRP. It may not be double, but it's going to be a very large increment.

The point being what? Of course a larger battery pack will increase the cost of manufacturing the car. That doesn't mean, however, that doubling the pack cost will also double all other costs. In fact the other costs won't change much if at all. If the steering column costs $50 for a car with a 20 kWh pack it's going to cost $50 for a car with a 40 kWh pack. The costs are simply unrelated.

This is so obvious I don't understand why anyone would question it. It likewise should be obvious that if you can sell a first generation BEV that goes 80 miles for $28K that you can build and sell a second generation BEV that goes 100 miles for $30K or one that goes 200 miles for $40K. The difference between a BEV that goes 80 miles and one that goes 100 miles is a mere 5 kWh. With cell costs dropping 8% a year in three years the larger pack of the next generation should be cheaper than the original smaller pack.

 

[Volt3939]

... BUT, when you read the article, it says GM is going to price it about the same as the Volt. The Volt is not $30K! And remember, these prices are before any incentives which may or may not be available at a later date.

That is the plan though, 5K off already, ($35K) 5K to go, by '15 (or '16?). Certainly before or same time as any new offering. That is before incentives also.

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

If GM made a car, slightly larger than the Volt, with the EV range of a Leaf, and the range extending ICE, I could get by with it being my only car. The Volt's current EV range is less than I need, but it's a drag to have to find a public station when traveling, especially with no L3 here.

 

[KJD]

According to Yahoo auto page the volt is starting at $39,145 http://autos.yahoo.com/chevrolet/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

At 38 miles EV range that is just OVER 1,000 MSRP per mile of range.

200 mile range at 30,000 MSRP is just marketing BS. Nothing new here.