cwerdna said:
edatoakrun said:
There are many 40+ mpg highway ICEVs available today that achieve that level of fuel efficiency with innovations that used to be more or less unique to hybrids, lower rolling resistance tires, improved aerodynamics, etc. Even in “city” driving, significant efficiency gains can can be had by adding stop/start systems to non-hybrid ICEVs.
But compared to HSD based hybrids like the Prius, they get really lousy city EPA numbers (and results on CR city tests) and lousy combined/overall mileage compared to HSD hybrids. I pointed out some of these dramatic differences in my earlier post. Please chime in if you know of currently sold gasoline powered ICEVs who are anywhere close and that have comparable interior room and power.
As for start/stop systems, well, a bunch of automakers claim that it doesn't help much or at all on the EPA tests. See http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2009/12/mazda-epa-test-keeps-stop-start-out/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. The statement is interesting as the city and cold temp portions have 23 stops per http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/fe_test_schedules.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and seems to contradict what Mazda's saying. Not sure what's up with those 22 other stops. (For more info on the EPA tests, see http://priuschat.com/forums/other-cars/67235-car-driver-truth-about-epa-city-highway-mpg-estimates.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false
.
While EPA numbers are useful, they do not necessarily reflect real-world results. European vehicles mostly have stop/start, because, IIRC, their test cycle more accurately reflects fuel savings, than does the EPA city test cycle.
For example, IF I were in the market for an ICV, I would probably choose to buy a Hyundai Elantra, Chevy Cruze, or a Ford focus, cars with "comparable interior room and power" to a Prius.
Any of these cars would cost me many thousands of dollars less, and use only about 50 more gallons of gasoline a year (10,000 miles a year at about 40 MPG rather than 50 MPG- I don't drive in "city" conditions) than the Prius.
On the other hand, An EV like my LEAF saves me 200 gallons of gas a year, and about 75% of the fuel costs (and an even greater percentage of CO2 pollution) over the Prius, for about the same additional price increase.
Which brings me back to my point, that the incremental benefits of hybrids, were and are, far lower than those provided by EVs.
So the low level of current hybrid sales, do not predict future EV sales.
IMO, EVs will almost certainly replace ICEVs, hybrid and otherwise, as the largest proportion of new vehicle sales, much sooner than vehicle manufactures (and most EV advocates) now expect.
I believe the initial limiting factor in EV sales will be infrastructure development. Once fast charging is widely available, EV sales will likely be limited mostly by how rapidly manufactures are able to convert from ICEV production.
