Is electric really better?

[Herm]

I'm not sure buying renewable energy credits is the same as buying wind. Help me out please?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ifornia-supports-wind-projects-in-canada.html

Thanks for the link, it is a travesty that you consumers pay for "green credits" and dont actually take delivery of any power. Its good paying $0.50 per kwh, it really teaches you to conserve.

 

[aqn]

I'd like to see a CO2 comparison, a gallon of gas burned in the average American car vs. CO2 emmisions from power plants, equal to producing an electric charge that will propel the car as far as an average gallon of gas.

A while back, I did some research. It wasn't rigorous in that I only included transmission loss of electricity. I did not include exploration/discovery/extraction/transportation/refining CO2 generation of coal or oil. What I found was:

LEAF: 0.34 lbs of CO2 per mile
Prius: 0.39 lbs
Average U.S. passenger vehicle (in 2008): 0.95 lbs

I believe these numbers are not far off. They're certainly within an order of magnitude some figures claimed by other research.

Let's talk about cost:

The cost per gallon equivalent of an electric charge in America, on average, is about $1.50 [...]

Where are you getting your costs? If you are going to do a comparison do it correctly. At 20,000 miles per year, the cost to operate a LEAF is 20,000/80miles/charge(at highway speed of 55 mph) X $1.50 = Annual cost of $375.00

Now gas at 30 mpg [...]

Note that the "average" U.S. passenger vehicle only gets 22.6 mpg.

 

[aqn]

Exactly! All it does is raise the cost of power for LADWP customers... The plant (as with all plants) will continue to operate until it is no longer economically feasible regardless of who it is selling its power to...

Wait - so this shiny new LEAF in my garage doesn't do anything but raise the cost of driving for me since my old Subaru continues to be driven on San Diego streets? After all - it will operate (as will all our old gas-burners) until it's no longer economically feasible...

That is true. However, also consider this: there is a good chance that whoever buys your car is upgrading from an older, "dirtier" car. (I claim that it's rare that someone would buy a car that is older/in worse shape/not as nice as their current car.) That being the case, that person is now putting out less emission than before. Ditto that person's old car: it probably goes to someone replacing an even dirtier car. And so on. The car of the person at the end of that chain would go to the junk heap, of course.

So, while it's true that a new LEAF is responsible for lots of CO2 in its manufacturing, the car(s) that it helps replace get progressively cleaner. At least, that's what I tell myself.

 

[ERG4ALL]

The cost per gallon equivalent of an electric charge in America, on average, is about $1.50

Our old PT Cruiser got about 20 mpg for a cost of about $3.86. To go 20 miles with the LEAF is about 5 kWh at even $0.10/kWh would be $0.50 not $1.50. If the $1.50 includes some other costs other than what the utility is charging I would point out that the cost of the gasoline ought to include a hefty portion of our defense budget.

 

[aqn]

The cost per gallon equivalent of an electric charge in America, on average, is about $1.50

Our old PT Cruiser got about 20 mpg for a cost of about $3.86. To go 20 miles with the LEAF is about 5 kWh at even $0.10/kWh would be $0.50 not $1.50.

The phrasing of the original sentence is unfortunate, but I believe it was referring to an 100% charge: "an electric charge", a LEAF "tankful".

In my case, my 3.84 mi/kWh and $0.052/kWh works out to $1.02 per 75-mile "tankful".

 

[AndyH]

I'm not sure buying renewable energy credits is the same as buying wind. Help me out please?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ifornia-supports-wind-projects-in-canada.html

Thanks for the link, it is a travesty that you consumers pay for "green credits" and dont actually take delivery of any power. Its good paying $0.50 per kwh, it really teaches you to conserve.

While this is a west-coast-centric group, I'm not part of the 'you consumers' group of which you speak.

Frankly, I'd MUCH rather pay a bit more for clean power...wait - I AM!

How much does that 'cheap' coal cost West Virginians again? And those of us living down-wind of coal plants? But some think-tank somewhere must have 'proven' that sulfur dioxide and mercury are 'plant food' and good for us, right? :lol:

http://www.kens5.com/news/local/Coa...S-foresee-clean-energy-sources-124243819.html

A coal-fired power plant that has supplied electricity to San Antonio since the 1970s will be the first in Texas to close its doors.
"Today is the beginning of an effort to become the new energy economy city," Mayor Julian Castro said as he announced the Deely Coal Power Plant will be retired by 2018 and will be replaced with clean energy sources.
"There's no magic bullet, but solar has to be a part of it," said Doyle Beneby, CEO of City Public Service.

 

[dznit]

(Note: My Leaf runs off of West Texas wind!)

While filling up my ICE car, I was thinking about how much more this
gasoline fill-up was costing me v/s driving my Leaf.

ICE:
* Fill-up: 14.026 gal @ $3.599/gal = $50.48
* Traveled: 288.3 miles
* MPG: 288.3/14.026 = 20.55MPG
* $ per Mile = $50.48/288.3 = $0.175 per mile

Leaf:
* 4 miles per KwHr
* $0.12 per KwHr
* (For 288.3 miles) KwHr used = 288.3 / 4 = 72.075 KwHr
* 72.075 KwHr x $0.12 = $8.649
* $ per Mile = $8.649 / 288.3 = $0.03 per mile

Result:
Leaf would save ($0.175 - $0.03) = $0.145 per mile
- OR -
288.3 miles x $0.145/mile = $41.80

i.e. Filling up the ICE cost me $41.80 more than driving the same
distance in a Leaf.

P.S.
For $3.00 & $4.00 per gallon & 288.3 miles traveled:
* $3.00/gal : Leaf would save ~$33.50 per fill-up
* $4.00/gal : Leaf would save ~$47.50 per fill-up

Conclusion:
Your Gasoline & Electricity costs and your MPG may be different.
Run your numbers & see. Leaf should lower your energy cost to drive
a car. Go wind! Go solar!

 

[Herm]

How much does that 'cheap' coal cost West Virginians again? And those of us living down-wind of coal plants? But some think-tank somewhere must have 'proven' that sulfur dioxide and mercury are 'plant food' and good for us, right? :lol:

Coal plants can be nasty, the ashes are radioactive environmental nightmares.. probably far worse than nuclear waste due to the volume. I wonder what India and China do with their coal ashes?

I used to fish on a river by a coal plant.. very nice fishing but I would not eat those fish for anything (but scientists said it was ok).. after 50 years the river mud turned a distinctive black-as-ink color. You dont see a lot of stuff coming out of the plant but you know something must get past the scrubbers.

 

[Bassman]

Yes, everyone will get a different savings driving the LEAF over an ICE. The point of my reply was that the previous poster did a comparison that indicated only a $320.00 savings per year for driving a LEAF for 20,000 miles a year versus an ICE, which is not even close (about 1/10th the typical savings or less, if the average mpg in the US is 22.6mpg as was stated), and indicated that at that minimal savings, it would take 30 years to pay for the $10,000 to $20,000 differential cost of the LEAF over a Honda Civic ICE car.

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

The number I'm very curious about is how much the average household would save driving EV's rather than ICE's and how much $$ that would free up in the economy overall... A bigger figure than any tax cut being floated, I'm sure!

For us it will be about $2k in our first year, and that's including an upcharge for electricity from 100% renewable sources (0% nuclear, 0% mass hydro and of course 0% coal/Oil).

EV's make renewbles affordable and could help turn our economy around!
G

 

[Yodrak]

That is exactly what utilities do, yes. It's required of electric utilities to provide their product at the lowest possible cost consistent with standards for safety and reliability of service. Subject to overriding laws of the US government, of their state governments, and the rulings of their utility commisions that may specifically require them to do otherwise, generally for reasons associated with the public good. Any utility that does not provide the cheapest power possible under the circumstances is going to have big problems with its commission.

Short-sighted. Your "realism" would have every utility continue to buy the cheapest power available regardless of source...

No, not at all. Many (most?) of the exceptions to the basic tenent of keeping the cost of electricity as low as possible are aimed directly at getting rid of dirty plants and encouraging cleaner plants and renewable sources. Things like the environmental protection laws that make it uneconomical to keep dirty plants in service, which I mentioned already, and laws requiring that a certain percentage of energy come from renewable sources.

lengthening the lifespan of dirty plants.

 

[Herm]

The number I'm very curious about is how much the average household would save driving EV's rather than ICE's and how much $$ that would free up in the economy overall... A bigger figure than any tax cut being floated, I'm sure!

You also need to take into account tear and wear on the battery.. and that depends on how deep you cycle it.

I suspect that if you only cycle the battery 6 bars, and you only charge to 80% then you will completely spend your battery by the time the car is ready for the junkyard, in about 15 years or more.. but if you cycle the battery nearly 100% every day then expect about 1500 cycles. If you only get 73 miles with a 100% cycle then that works out to 109k miles before your battery is spent. How much will it cost to rebuild a Nissan battery?, perhaps $12k.. if you get 138 miles with a 100% cycle then you would get 207k miles before needing a rebuild. Numbers all over the place. Assume an ice/transmission will last 150k miles and will need an oil change every 8k miles, assume a BEV will have brakes that will last twice as long as a conventional car.

 

[Yodrak]

True. But a utility cannot make that decision except on the basis of cost. Cost of service is the bottom line with all state utility commission except to the extent that the commission, or state law, imposes additional requirements that force the utility to spend more. But, if the utility itself wanted to switch from coal to some other fuel that would raise the cost of electricity to the consumer, the commission would tell it 'no you can't raise the price to the consumer, your stockholders will have to pay the cost differential.'

if all utilities decide that they don't want to purchase coal-fired electricity, that plant will be out of business...

I can't back this up with math, but I suspect that natural gas is better from a climate standpoint than coal, for two reasons:
- a steam cycle coal plant is roughly just as efficient whether burning coal or natural gas, but a gas-fired combined cycle plant can be much more efficient than a steam plant.
- coal is essentially carbon, the combustion products are essentially CO2. Natural gas is essentially methane, CH4. The combustion products are some CO2 and a lot of water.

On the other hand, methane is a much worse greenhouse gas than CO2, so any natural gas that escapes between the well and being burned reduces the benefit.

or will have to convert to natural gas, which probably isn't any better from a climate standpoint,

Agreed, although modern coal plants and those older coal plants that have been retrofitted with modern cleanup systems are pretty clean.

but is a lot better in terms of other pollutants like mercury.

Exactly. But to the extent that new environmental regulations make it increasingly expensive to retrofit older plants, making them uneconomic to operate, the time frame can be speeded up. The question is, how much are regulators willing to force up the price of electricity by driving up the cost of producing it? There is conflict here - the utility regulators want to keep the price to the consumer down, environmental regulators want to clean up the air and reduce global warming despite the cost.

Of course it is going to take decades to make this change. So, will it make an immediate difference? Of course not. Will it influence the building of new power plants and utilization of current ones? To some degree, but likely slowly over time.

 

[DaveEV]

How much will it cost to rebuild a Nissan battery?, perhaps $12k..

Should be half that by the time one needs a replacement - Tesla will sell you a 53 kWh replacement battery for $12k (prepaid) today.

 

[davewill]

That is exactly what utilities do, yes. It's required of electric utilities to provide their product at the lowest possible cost consistent with standards for safety and reliability of service. Subject to overriding laws of the US government, of their state governments...

Which is exactly what we're discussing.

 

[AndyH]

The number I'm very curious about is how much the average household would save driving EV's rather than ICE's and how much $$ that would free up in the economy overall... A bigger figure than any tax cut being floated, I'm sure!

You also need to take into account tear and wear on the battery.. and that depends on how deep you cycle it.

I suspect that if you only cycle the battery 6 bars, and you only charge to 80% then you will completely spend your battery by the time the car is ready for the junkyard, in about 15 years or more.. but if you cycle the battery nearly 100% every day then expect about 1500 cycles. If you only get 73 miles with a 100% cycle then that works out to 109k miles before your battery is spent. How much will it cost to rebuild a Nissan battery?, perhaps $12k.. if you get 138 miles with a 100% cycle then you would get 207k miles before needing a rebuild. Numbers all over the place. Assume an ice/transmission will last 150k miles and will need an oil change every 8k miles, assume a BEV will have brakes that will last twice as long as a conventional car.

But without details from Nissan/AESC we absolutely cannot answer this question. I expect at least 2000 full cycles from the battery. Five days per week of a complete 100% consumer cycle means we have more than 7 years before we hit ~80% capacity. The battery doesn't need to be rebuilt at that point if the range is still sufficient. (3000 cycles, five days per week, 52 weeks per year provides 11.5 years to 80%...)[edit - 80% ultimate -- about 100% 'consumer.]

And it appears that current battery tech - cells being shipped today - provide between 2000 (LiFePO4) and 3000 (LiMnCo) (I expect the current AESC cells to be between these two, and likely closer to the 3000 cycle mark).
Here's a look at current-tech cells from Dow/Kokam:
http://www.corvus-energy.com/pdf/lithium_power_energy_systems_for_the_next_generation_of_vessels.pdf

As for ICE life, that's really variable as well. Many Americans start to worry when their odometer hits 100,000 miles - and using typical el-cheapo lubricants can make that a self-fulfilling prophecy. But - those that use higher quality lubricants should expect a much longer life. The average Euro oil change interval has been 10K miles for many years (and lifetime fill transmission lubricants have been fielded since at least 1988). Products have been available in the US that allow annual or 25,000 mile engine oil change intervals since the early 1970s. I've just gone over the two year mark for my current oil change (though change filters annually). I really wish the car would die, but compression is still within serviceable tolerances and fuel economy/emissions are still better than new with 399,400 miles. The body will fall apart before the engine or drivetrain fail.

Either way, the numbers will be different for everyone depending on driving and servicing habits, and personal choice.

 

[Herm]

But without details from Nissan/AESC we absolutely cannot answer this question. I expect at least 2000 full cycles from the battery. Five days per week of a complete 100% consumer cycle means we have more than 7 years before we hit ~80% capacity. The battery doesn't need to be rebuilt at that point if the range is still sufficient. (3000 cycles, five days per week, 52 weeks per year provides 11.5 years to 80%...)

Those NMC cells from Kokam look very interesting with their 3000 100% DOD cycle life, that beats Toshibas lithuym titanate at a high DOD usage.

You have any links on lithium manganese spinel cycle life?.. from what I have seen life is 1000-1500 cycles.

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

The number I'm very curious about is how much the average household would save driving EV's rather than ICE's and how much $$ that would free up in the economy overall... A bigger figure than any tax cut being floated, I'm sure!

You also need to take into account tear and wear on the battery.. and that depends on how deep you cycle it.

I suspect that if you only cycle the battery 6 bars, and you only charge to 80% then you will completely spend your battery by the time the car is ready for the junkyard, in about 15 years or more.. but if you cycle the battery nearly 100% every day then expect about 1500 cycles. If you only get 73 miles with a 100% cycle then that works out to 109k miles before your battery is spent. How much will it cost to rebuild a Nissan battery?, perhaps $12k.. if you get 138 miles with a 100% cycle then you would get 207k miles before needing a rebuild. Numbers all over the place. Assume an ice/transmission will last 150k miles and will need an oil change every 8k miles, assume a BEV will have brakes that will last twice as long as a conventional car.

certainly worth including all factors. however, I do think what will drive battery replacement will be advances in battery capacity, not batteries burning out.

How much will it cost to rebuild a Nissan battery?, perhaps $12k..

Should be half that by the time one needs a replacement - Tesla will sell you a 53 kWh replacement battery for $12k (prepaid) today.

very good point!

g

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I will go out on a limb and guess that replacement cost for current technology will under $3,000 for pack replacement and much more than half with opt for something more expensive.

Nissan has already stated that higher capacity batteries will be available in next 3-4 years.

Should we sticky this sou all can razz me for my crazy prediction?

 

[Stoaty]

True. But a utility cannot make that decision except on the basis of cost. Cost of service is the bottom line with all state utility commission except to the extent that the commission, or state law, imposes additional requirements that force the utility to spend more.

That is why I am so pleased that California has increased the Renewable Portfolio Standard to 33% for 2020. If other states follow suit, those coal plants are going to fall on hard times. The externalities associated with coal would make it uneconomic if the utility had to bear the cost.