July Plugin Sales : Leaf 395, Volt 1849, PIP 688, FFE 38

[palmermd]

I believe the possibility for 4000/month has come and gone.

He was referring to a yearly total. I suspect 500/mo or 6000/year for the near term unless there is some major change to the economy or oil supply.

 

[evnow]

I believe the possibility for 4000/month has come and gone.

He was referring to a yearly total. I suspect 500/mo or 6000/year for the near term unless there is some major change to the economy or oil supply.

No - we are talking about 4K per month.

Ofcourse, Train doesn't really have an idea what he is talking about :shock: You don't know the real deamdn until shoppers can go to a dealer, look at a dozen cars with different colors & trims, haggle over price and drive the car home that day.

 

[Reddy]

I'll be interested in seeing world sales. My guess is that Nissan is distributing more Leafs around the world as compared to the US due to the exchange rate.

Reddy

 

[evnow]

I'll be interested in seeing world sales. My guess is that Nissan is distributing more Leafs around the world as compared to the US due to the exchange rate.

We don't know the monthly breakup - but recently Nissan announced 20K worldwide sales. Given that US & Japan are about 8750 each, ROW should be about 2500.

It would be an interesting tactic if Nissan plans to sell only a few thousand in US until Smyrna plant goes live. That would enable them to sell in other countries where the margin is better.

 

[Train]

Ofcourse, Train doesn't really have an idea what he is talking about You don't know the real deamdn until shoppers can go to a dealer, look at a dozen cars with different colors & trims, haggle over price and drive the car home that day.

I already explained that in another post. Ghosn's job is going to be on the line at this time next year. It's going to be a surprise to many when reality rears its head.

Since we're in the denial stage, I guess anger follows. At some point, acceptance that there's nowhere near the market for the average customer will be a struggle for some to understand.

 

[evnow]

I already explained that in another post.

Which post ?

ps : I've a low opinion of people who claim to "know" what is going to happen in the marketplace.

 

[ENIAC]

Ghosn's job is going to be on the line at this time next year. It's going to be a surprise to many when reality rears its head.

Nissan NA November sales up 19.4% year over year. Ghosn's job is very secure. What do you base your "logic" on?

 

[Train]

Ghosn's job is very secure.

For now.

 

[cwerdna]

The 2012 price bump on the LEAF may damper spirits some as well when looking ahead. I'd say the early returns on Volt demand from this month, does make me question Nissan's ambituous expectations on the LEAF, and US production. Starting to feel like the ceiling on LEAF sales in the US is going to be in the neighbourhood of 4K.

Yes - we know that orphans (2011) aren't getting picked up as quickly as before, even with discounts (though recently I saw an orphan sold by my nearest dealer for 5K premium).

Yep, these the latest sales stats for the Leaf are a bit of downer. I really do wonder about demand once only the '12 Leaf is available. I'm personally annoyed by the 2012's forced features and significant price increase. Yes, I know he yen/dollar exchange rate is killing Japanese automakers, but most car buyers don't know that, don't care, and don't see a need to feel sympathetic/understanding.

To see sales stats like this and to see a couple dealers posting about multiple orphans available in November makes me wonder about US demand.

 

[evnow]

I'm personally annoyed by the 2012's forced features and significant price increase.

You mean CWP ? I think that should be a std - it was supposed to be a std in '11 itself but was delayed.

But, you are right - Nissan should be able to decontent some and reduce the price on SV.

 

[cwerdna]

Ghosn's job is going to be on the line at this time next year. It's going to be a surprise to many when reality rears its head.

Nissan NA November sales up 19.4% year over year. Ghosn's job is very secure. What do you base your "logic" on?

I'd say it's based upon Ghosn being such a strong proponent for this project and making HUGE investments in Japan and abroad (including taking $1.4B DOE loan). He took one hell of a gamble. If the Leaf ends up being a dud and Nissan takes a big bath on it, I think he job will be less secure. This would be just yet another excuse.

Earlier in the year, there was some industrial spying scandal (I didn't follow the details as I didn't care). Google for scandal nissan ghosn. Luckily, he wasn't forced out over that.

I'm personally annoyed by the 2012's forced features and significant price increase.

You mean CWP ? I think that should be a std - it was supposed to be a std in '11 itself but was delayed.

But, you are right - Nissan should be able to decontent some and reduce the price on SV.

Yes, CWP and battery heater (if that's not included). I live in CA. I don't need battery heating or insulation. The heated seats are potentially useful though but I normally wouldn't pay for such things (at least on an ICEV). The standard QC port on the '12 SL is still next to useless in the Bay Area (see http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=7023" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and yes, I did read Ingineer's trip to the turned off most of the time Vacaville station).

The price of the SV went up $2420 and $3530 for the SL. They forced on some features that are useless for me and one that's potentially useful. I can't remove them...

 

[wsbca]

California is your best market and most who have wanted to buy one, has one.

I may be too optimistic, but I think right now it's more like those who _knew_ they wanted to buy one have done so...but I think that there may be a second tier of purchasers in California who didn't/don't know for sure yet, but are excellent candidates once they do the math a few more times, conclude that gas is never going to get cheaper etc. Or maybe I mean there are those who knew they would buy one, and those who want to to some degree but aren't there yet. There are only just now enough visible (and barely so) LEAFs on the road to even begin to convince non-enthusiasts that the car is actually real and remotely viable. And a chunk of the convincing is not just presence on the road, but presence for a period of time. I don't know if it will really happen but based on the types of questions I am getting I think there's still significant untapped potential - some teetering on the edge of making the leap, some not that close yet but starting to understand that the car really works...it is after all a huge paradigm-shifting step for most people, but so was a Prius for the first few years. Right now the typical owner is not an average Prius owner, it's someone who was an early adopter of the Prius (or the Insight or Civic Hybrid[me]) and there are now scads of Priuses on the road in California. Of course maybe part of the problem is that if you already have a HEV you're doing pretty well (on gas, or your green self-image, or both) and you don't yet feel the urge to take the next step.

I agree that price is a problem, especially with the model year increase and the decrease in the Calif. rebate....at $20K net they should fly out the door, but at closer to $30K, not so much. What's really needed (and not just to sell LEAFs) is $5+ a gallon gas - still not enough to cover the externalities, but closer to a real price.

 

[essaunders]

I'm a potential example of a problem for Nissan. I have an order in for a 2012. But I'm still seriously considering a PiP ( that is ordered too). I really can only get one new car. The fact get a PiP only trails a leaf by 3 months and is about $1000 cheaper (based on what I ordered) makes it serious competition.
I think I'm evaluating based on value and risk. I know one major problem in my calculus is my local airport 55 miles away. They don't have certain (or any) charging now so that one use case may be swing the decision.

 

[edatoakrun]

How are the Volt buybacks (16 reported returned to GM so far, due to "fire risk") accounted for in these totals?

 

[essaunders]

-....at $20K net they should fly out the door, but at closer to $30K, not so much.

Exactly. 30k for a 70mile car is just a little steep. No matter how low the operating costs could be, initial price is still a major issue.

 

[DrInnovation]

How are the Volt buybacks (16 reported returned to GM so far, due to "fire risk") accounted for in these totals?

What is your basis for that statement? What I read was with respect to the loaner

So far, Akerson said 16 Volt owners have inquired and only two have taken the loaners.

(See http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505145_162-57335003/gm-willing-to-buy-back-volts-from-fearful-owners/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false

And I've seen that at least two of those 16 were people hoping GM would let them keep their volt and get a rental for the week. (which a 1-car family would find a great bonus).

As the ConsumerReports car with highest satisfaction (bette than Porche 911), it will be surprising if there are many looking to sell it back.
(At which points its probably a dealer demo, in the way things are counted.. or maybe NHSTA will be crashing them so they can start more media fires.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

-....at $20K net they should fly out the door, but at closer to $30K, not so much.

Exactly. 30k for a 70mile car is just a little steep. No matter how low the operating costs could be, initial price is still a major issue.

well, i paid less than that. considering the tax waiver for WA, i paid the same as i would have if i had bought a $24,300 ICE.

i think that Nissan jumped the gun with the price increase. i saw it coming but surprised it came so quickly. granted the winter package probably added to that, but half the country could probably do without it but that is not an option which is a mistake.

i think the Leaf will still sell at its higher price but i also see some going for under MSRP sooner than later

 

[SanDust]

First the Leaf outsold the Volt for a few months and the Volt is a complete failure and GM is going bankrupt (again). Now the Volt outsells the Leaf for a few months and the Leaf's price is too high and Ghosn's job is in jeopardy.

In truth the Volt is fine. GM is making piles of money except in Europe. The Leaf is still the cheapest EV you can buy. And Ghosn's job is not on the line

These are just roll out numbers from limited production. They mean nothing other than there are way more EVs on the road today than there were a year ago. Give it some time and don't over react to every sales number.

 

[evnow]

In truth the Volt is fine. GM is making piles of money except in Europe. The Leaf is still the cheapest EV you can buy. And Ghosn's job is not on the line

- Volt (market) is not fine. It is selling less than what most of us thought it would sell (the guess on gm-volt ranged 2K and above)
- Mitsu i is the cheapest EV you can "buy"
- Ghosn's job is on the line, ofcourse. But he needs to show results in 3 to 5 years. In the next year, he needs to sell every Leaf they can make - which I have little doubt they will be able to, worldwide.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

all this really hinges on gas prices. most people will not move to EVs due to cost but when gas prices spike again, more will look at it and find that cost is only one factor.

driving clean
driving quiet
driving cheap
NOT driving to the gas station

i have gone from getting gas 6-8 times a month to getting it 2-3 times a month. that is kinda nice.