LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

[evnow]

So really, why not spend the $4120 extra for (the Bolt's) 88 more miles?..

Yes, SV (and esp. SL) start looking poor value In comparison to Bolt/Model 3 - IF range is the most important feature.

I felt cramped and claustrophobic in Bolt - because the windshield is too close. Something like this is not easy to compare by looking at the dimensions.

Leaf makes sense if someone is happy with 160 miles of range - but need some extra features that are either unavailable in Bolt/Model 3 (heated steering wheel anyone ?) or too expensive.

But in general, I won't be surprised if S is the largest selling Leaf 2 trim (and SL sells just a few %).

BTW, your estimates are quite wrong. For eg. Model 3 (310) has 80 kWh battery.

PS : this is something we need to keep in mind. Marginal utility of an extra mile of range goes down as the range increases. 80 to 160 mile is very useful compared to 160 to 240. I'd not pay the same money to go from 160 to 240 compared to 80 to 160. This is obvious when you consider that the 80 miles is actually about 60 miles in winter and after just 45 miles we start seeing low battery warning. This is the reason I'd not spend $9k to go from base Model 3 to long range.

 

[jdcbomb]

I agree with the marginal utility of each unit increase in range. Huge utility gained from 80 to 160. Quickly diminishes for me when cost goes above $35,000 (which the Model 3 does instantly). This of course will vary person to person, scenario to scenario...

 

[TheJeebas]

Yeah I borrowed those Model 3 numbers from something I wrote up last week, and the extended range model3 battery numbders came out after.

I guess it just depends on your needs, the difference between 80-150 is slight to me because I already have a commuter EV and have an average commute mileage. However I understand that for those with longer commutes, getting 150 epa is important.

I had heard that the Bolt is less comfortable than the Leaf. I have yet to see for myself since they just got them around here recently.

Don't get me wrong I LOVE my Leaf, I was excited for a potentially game changing price on the new ones that would get more people into EVs, I just don't think this is it.

 

[OrientExpress]

I have seen several studies that indicate less than 10% of current EV owners find the current marginal cost of a 200+ mile EV acceptable, especially when the rest of the vehicle proposition is included in the evaluation. And of course, we all know the studies that show the average EV is driven less than 60 miles daily. For those that feel that they must have extra range and insist that the occasional long trip is worth the premium, there are certainly solutions for them.

I would think that if a vehicle takes into consideration all of the factors that make an optimum EV, the premium cost for a marginal amount of additional range is not acceptable for the majority of EV owners.

For example, a 230-mile LEAF SL is a better value at $35K than a $35K Model 3 or Bolt simply because of the additional content and features that the other doesn't offer or wants tens of thousands more for.

 

[desiv]

Leaf makes sense if someone is happy with 160 miles of range - but need some extra features that are either unavailable in Bolt/Model 3 (heated steering wheel anyone ?) or too expensive.

For me, the math is on the edge..
I "need" 120 miles. That's my round trip commute. I told my wife I'd upgrade from my current Leaf (which I charge often now) when something affordable that can get me to work AND back was available.
The Bolt can do that, although not sure I consider $40k affordable.. (Yes, I know about the $7,500 tax credit)
The new Leaf is looking at 150/160???

But.. In the winter with the heater, what is that range?
After 5 years of battery degradation, what is that range?
And this is with mostly highway speeds (63mph-ish).

When I first got my 2012 Leaf (used still 12 bars), it could do 1 way (60 miles) no problem, even with some heat (defrost) in the winter.
Now, I "might" make it from a full charge in warm weather 1 way, but that would be with a good tailwind. ;-)
Realistically for me, it's currently a 50 mile car for my commute. (There is a QC at the mid point I use daily - I'm at 10 bars)

If the new Leaf loses the same 20%(ish) over 4-5 years (and I don't know if it will), that's down to 120/130 mile range..
And in winter at 60 mph???

For my math, I'm thinking the 150/160 mile Leaf might not be the next car I am looking for... ;-(

So I'd more likely be looking at the higher range Leaf...
Or, maybe the new Leafs will cause the Bolt prices to drop a bit???? ;-)

Of course, I realize most people don't commute 120 miles a day, so the new Leaf with 150ish range sounds like a great entry point for commuters...

desiv

 

[OrientExpress]

Sounds like the new LEAF would probably do you fine if it is 160 miles.

I can understand your hesitation if your only reference is an 11 or 12 LEAF. But to be honest your basis is really outdated. The degradation was pretty much fixed in 2014, I have a 14 with mid-40s miles, and it still has the same range as when new. My average commute is 60 miles at 65+ and I still get 4.5 miles/kW or 80 miles more or less to a charge. The heater is a heat pump (may be a cold weather package in 18), and it has minimal effect on range.

I think that the 18 LEAF is something you should consider closely.

 

[evnow]

I guess it just depends on your needs, the difference between 80-150 is slight to me because I already have a commuter EV and have an average commute mileage. However I understand that for those with longer commutes, getting 150 epa is important.

Its not the commute. Its about using Leaf for almost everything we do around the town - evening shopping/kids trips or weekend trips. Those got tedious in the old Leaf in Winter.

And of course, we all know the studies that show the average EV is driven less than 60 miles daily

And another thing we know is average is a very limited statistic.

What % of a person's daily driving is satisfied with a short range EV (taking into account winter, freeways and buffer) ? EVs will get popular when they can handle 90% of the driving of significant % of population (say 75%).

 

[LeftieBiker]

Leftie,

Thanks! It didn't occur to me to look in that section.

EDIT: Looks like that graphic went away, too, or I didn't quote it correctly. BTW, I hope people are submitting their posts on this to the Web Archive.

 

[LeftieBiker]

Still no green Leaf.

SV/SL does have something that is sorta turquoise with components of green....sorta of

It looks like Nissan is calling it Jade Frost - which does seem to indicate some type of green...

My housemate's PIP is something called "Sea Mist Pearl" which is close to that color. They don't even call it "green"...

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

An under $30k, 40 kWh, S would sell well, but with QC and Cold package its more like $32k.

A 60 kWh SL at $36.2k would compete well against 3 and Bolt, and I'd wait a couple months for it. But if it's a longer wait than that, I'll have to go with the Bolt. I'm done with all this "range that you need" crap. If 60 kWh is in my price range, nothing less will do.

 

[LeftieBiker]

The SV and SL still have standard QC, right?

 

[BrockWI]

And are they all 6.6 or 6.0, the larger onboard chargers?

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

The SV and SL still have standard QC, right?

Since it's only listed as an option for the S, I'd say yes.

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

And are they all 6.6 or 6.0, the larger onboard chargers?

No mention of that, but probably 6.

 

[OrientExpress]

And of course, we all know the studies that show the average EV is driven less than 60 miles daily.

And another thing we know is average is a very limited statistic
What % of a person's daily driving is satisfied with a short range EV (taking into account winter, freeways and buffer) ? EVs will get popular when they can handle 90% of the driving of significant % of population (say 75%).

Seven years and over 250,000 LEAFs that send their activity to Nissan daily show that driving less than 60 miles is entirely accurate for the majority of World-wide drivers. I have fit that profile for over 15 years, with seven of those years in a LEAF.

The LEAF is our 90% car today, and our driving patterns had not changed from when we only had ICE cars.

If the next LEAF can do between 160 and 230 miles, it would graduate to a 95% car, but for a trip of 300 miles or more, there is no EV currently on the market that could satisfy that requirement. And to dig deeper, a real long distance vehicle must be able to go 350 miles at 80 mph and take less than 20 minutes to refuel or recharge for the next 80/350 stretch.

 

[evnow]

Seven years and over 250,000 LEAFs that send their activity to Nissan daily show that driving less than 60 miles is entirely accurate for the majority of World-wide drivers. I have fit that profile for over 15 years, with seven of those years in a LEAF.

Obviously Leaf satisfies the major needs of people who currently have it. Duh !

And to dig deeper, a real long distance vehicle must be able to go 350 miles at 80 mph and take less than 20 minutes to refuel or recharge for the next 80/350 stretch.

I used to write 3 hours traveling on freeway.

I was talking about use of average trip statistic. Should look at the distribution of daily miles travelled by the population rather than just average.

 

[OrientExpress]

OK, EVNow, you are an outlier, nothing wrong with that. And I am also talking about the average trip statistic. 60 miles or less.

https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/...nal_household_travel_survey/daily_travel.html

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Obviously more range opens up more use cases, which will be of varying interest to different audiences. I've always said there are road trips and then there are road trips. For "regional" road trips, 200 miles should suffice, eg LA to Vegas. Sure you may need to stop, but only once, not like the current LEAF where you'll be stopping five times, which is totally unacceptable. For intermediate distances, say 600-1500 miles I can't imagine doing that in anything less than a Tesla, but should be ok if the route has good SC coverage and you do a little planning. For cross-country sorts of trips, 2000+ miles I'm thinking that would be a challenge even in a Tesla, particularly if you were at all pressed for time or your route took you off the beaten path.
The real issue for regional road trips is whether you'll find any reliable available DCFC infrastructure with anything other than a Tesla. Even with the luxury of time where I am non-SC is just not something you can count on.

 

[ninja6r]

The configurator website is down. Just in case anyone wants, these are the only 2 screen shots I took trying to figure out why the SL was so much more than the SV.

https://imgur.com/gallery/2WMY3

 

[OrientExpress]

RE: LTLFTcomposite comments:

Tesla has a fair solution as long as you stay on the "big" roads, but if you get off the beaten path (which is what road trips are for IMO), Tesla sucks just as much as any other EV.

Today, I am confident that for regional road trips (for example anywhere in the SF Bay area up to Sacramento, Napa or Tahoe) a medium range EV will be just fine.

The thing is that for those less than five percent greater than 200-mile trips that fall into the long range category, does it make sense for that to be the primary decision criteria for acquiring an EV?

For that kind of distance, an EV just does not have it yet. None, nada, not even Tesla can make the grade to be able to meet the benchmark of 80 mph average speed, 350+miles range, and a 15-minute recharge.

But I do think that in the next ten years these edge cases of going on a long distance road trip without thinking about where the next charging station will be or how long the charge time will be a non-issue.

The whole range thing reminds me of the great PC race for faster personal computing to do more very complicated things. That problem solved itself in about 20 years. Solving the range issue will be done in about the same time. Modern EVs have been on the road for seven years now, give it another 10 for it to be a non-issue.

I think that it is pretty impressive that we can be even having this discussion based on reality vs. fiction, don't you?