Leaf Sales Demand

[Caracalover]

The sales numbers will continue to be insignificant in the overall 13-14 million or so that will be sold next year.

The automobile market is so super segmented that no individual model makes up a significant portion of the overall SAAR. Even the #1 selling Camry only makes up 2% of the 13M - 14M SAAR. However, the LEAF is outselling 15 other MY2011 vehicles presently. It's in no risk of getting killed any time soon.

Yeah, but the Camry has sold 251K units in the US to date. The top selling vehicle (not car) in the US is the Ford F-Series truck almost 469K sales YTD.

Also, to put Leaf sales in some other context, look at sales of monstrosity class (full-sized) SUVs from GM at http://media.gm.com/content/dam/Media/gmcom/investor/2011/DeliveriesOct2011.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; like the Yukon, Tahoe, Suburban, and Escalade.

All of these are vehicles that are available in all markets(Unlike the Leaf or Volt), and many of them are sold as fleet replacement vehicles, so it is not an apple to apple statistic by any stretch. Rental car companies are now asking for as many Leaf's as they can get, they just can't get them yet.

Not sure why you feel any of these stats are relevant, they aren't.

 

[cwerdna]

All of these are vehicles that are available in all markets(Unlike the Leaf or Volt), and many of them are sold as fleet replacement vehicles, so it is not an apple to apple statistic by any stretch. Rental car companies are now asking for as many Leaf's as they can get, they just can't get them yet.

Not sure why you feel any of these stats are relevant, they aren't.

I agree, they're not an apples to apples comparison but they do put in context current Volt and Leaf sales vs. the inertia that the rest of the market has since I suspect a fair % of folks here haven't looked at auto sales stats in detail.

Part of why I pointed out monstrosity class SUVs (I see an insane # of them running around, driven solo or w/minimal cargo and passengers where I live) is that there seem to be a # of folks who willingly (and foolishly, IMHO) buy such vehicles when there's no actual need. They either don't care about gas prices (or they do but just complain instead of buying a more efficient vehicle), dependence on foreign oil, global warming, etc. or all of the above. I can't see many of those people buying an EV. "Light trucks" (includes SUVs, minivans, most "crossovers", pickups) made up ~50.5% of US auto sales YTD.

I believe many Leaf early adopters have skewed perceptions. As I've posted before, (partly since I've owned my Prius for close to 6 years now) I've heard enough FUD, misinformation, etc. about hybrids from all sorts of people ranging from people who don't know much about cars and to enthusiasts. Then there are polls like one cited at http://www.npr.org/2011/11/22/142593572/automakers-set-to-steer-customers-to-hybrids" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Nearly half of consumers say they'll never consider buying a hybrid, according to a recent survey by Kelley Blue Book. Moody says the main reason is price — hybrids cost thousands more than comparable gasoline-powered models.

OR
http://www.green.autoblog.com/2011/05/31/gallup-poll-shows-57-of-americans-wont-buy-an-electric-vehicle/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

A recent USA Today-Gallup poll shows that 57 percent of American drivers won't buy an electric vehicle (EV) – no matter how much a gallon of gas costs

For context, Prius has been in sale in the US since late 2000. Insight, IIRC came a bit earlier. One can look at US sales stats of hybrids and EVs at http://www.hybridcars.com/news/october-2011-dashboard-hybrids-have-best-sales-march-31926.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. So, even after almost 11 years, we still have all this FUD, people trying to poo-poo hybrids based on factors like "payback" and hybrids are still a niche.

People have been and continue to unfairly compare hybrids like the midsize Prius to cheap compact or smaller econoboxes (lacking many features) and conclude that it's not worth it. Even though Train's figures are a bit inflated since he omits the current Federal tax credit, the upfront numbers of the Leaf will no doubt be put through the same comparisons.

Can you imagine how much FUD and misinformation is floating around about EVs? Even if they can get past some of that, many (or their spouses) just flat out won't be willing to pay for a range limited car nor be willing to put up w/the charge times (even if these aren't an actual problem for them). Then there's the justified fear of high battery replacement cost w/no warranty for capacity loss.

Apartment dwellers definitely are a market that is pretty well shut out, for now. Even if I somehow had decent charging at a complex I lived at, what if I need to move and my workplace provides none? That means either ditching the EV, limiting myself to apartments w/charging or units where one can run a L1 cord out from a balcony.

With this bad economy, one might lose a job and have to work somewhere where the Leaf's range is insufficient. Does it make sense to be limited by a car's range? This can be another factor in dissuading a buyer. I'm in this boat w/me not knowing where my future work will be since I left my job last year.

 

[padamson1]

Most people need a "do-it-all" vehicle. A car they can take take on long weekend trip, run errands, go to work, and not be counting down the miles to a dead stop. Practicality. For most buyers, an electric car like the LEAF is not practical. At $36,000, it becomes a luxury. It's just not convenient enough.

Here's where I think ZipCar provides a paradigm shift (especially when combined with a LEAF). We dropped two ICE cars and replaced them with a LEAF. We kept our Hybrid SUV b/c we have 2 driving teenagers and needed one more car (and that seemed like the best for weather emergencies). When we need a Pick-up truck I go online, reserve a Pick-up, my wife drives me over to the ZipCar spot, and I drive a pick-up for $8/hr (gas included). When we need to go on a long trip we reserve a Prius and we get a decent weekend rate (and the first tank is paid for). If we need a minivan for a trip, we'll reserve one for the trip. whenever we need an extra car I reserve one and get the type I need for that tack. Yup, it takes some advance planning to pick up the car, but we are saving beaucoup dollars and we get the exact car we need, when we need it. So far we're averaging 3-4 rentals a month at a small fraction of what we'd pay fr a third car. Once our kids are in college when can knock things down to just the LEAF.

As long as ZipCar stays in business the LEAF will work great for us because when we need a distance car, big car, or truck we can get what we want on demand. Of course this only works in metropolitan areas that ZipCars serves, but it definitely works for us.

 

[adric22]

Every time I read some survey where the author tries to convince there is no demand by throwing out some number such as "57% of US drivers say they won't consider an electric car," I have to laugh. I've read various numbers but they all hover around a slight majority of people who would not consider an EV. What makes me laugh is that 57% also translates into 43% that would consider an EV. When you consider how many millions of people that is, that number is huge! If 43% of Americans were driving EVs in 10 years, that would be considered a phenomenal success beyond any reasonable expectation. Yet the news media spins the number like it is a bad thing, yet if it actually came true nearly half of all cars on the road would be EV.

I have certainly had my share of arguments with people who do not understand EVs. I've heard all of the FUD. Everything from coal pollution to not wanting to wait 8 hours to charge. Some of that FUD will probably never go away. Some idiot wrote some article years ago saying that a Hummer polluted less than a Prius and even though it has been proven wrong many times, I still have people spewing that nonsense at me and believe it with all of their hearts.

However, I think when it comes to the larger aspects of the FUD such as charging times and range, I firmly believe these issues will disappear as more people become exposed to the technology, see them driving down the road, know friends and family who own them, and actually do some research themselves. I also suspect future generations of EVs will have longer ranges and faster charging times, which will also help with the problem.

The other thing is that car manufacturers need to produce vehicles that people actually want. Take the 1st generation Prius and Insight. The Insight was 2 seater and silly looking (but yes, I owned one) and the Prius was boxy and bland looking. When the Prius was redesigned in 2004 to add some better styling, it sold much better. Of course a lot of people still think the prius is an ugly car. A lot of people say the same about the Leaf, but I've also had plenty of people say they think it is cute. Point is, manufacturers need to build some really attractive EVs if they want them to sell really well.

I'm pretty much convinced that Nissan is the only company out there that really wants the EV to sell well. They have invested so much and need the sales. Ford and GM will be happy if their EV offerings don't sell very well.

 

[TomT]

Yes, I am one of those that still thinks the Prius is homely... I think the Leaf (and Volt) is much better looking but still not what most would call beautiful... Part of the problem may be that form follows function and to make a truly aerodynamic and lightweight form that can carry at least four people comfortably, we have to compromise those elements that make a vehicle beautiful to many.

When the Prius was redesigned in 2004 to add some better styling, it sold much better. Of course a lot of people still think the prius is an ugly car. A lot of people say the same about the Leaf, but I've also had plenty of people say they think it is cute.

 

[charlestonleafer]

I think a big mistake that is very commonly made, is looking at the sticker price. It is impossible in the U.S. to pay Sticker price for a LEAF right now because of the tax incentives. Even if you didn't make enough to have the tax liability for the $7500, you could just lease, and problem solved. So forget about $36k as that number simply doesn't matter. A 2012 Nissan Leaf SV is $27,700 and that's with no state incentives.

 

[adric22]

I think a big mistake that is very commonly made, is looking at the sticker price. It is impossible in the U.S. to pay Sticker price for a LEAF right now because of the tax incentives. Even if you didn't make enough to have the tax liability for the $7500, you could just lease, and problem solved. So forget about $36k as that number simply doesn't matter. A 2012 Nissan Leaf SV is $27,700 and that's with no state incentives.

Very true. But what torques me more than that is when all of these people complain that the car is ridiculously expensive and nobody can afford it. That drives me nuts. I always have to ask those people, "Have you looked at the cars on the street lately?" I mean all of those big SUVs driving around cost a lot more than the Leaf. There doesn't seem to be any shortage of people who can afford those. Then when you factor in the cost of ownership the Leaf comes out way ahead.

 

[klapauzius]

Then when you factor in the cost of ownership the Leaf comes out way ahead.

I think many people ignore that gas prices over the next 10 years will go way up, while battery replacement for the car will be very likely much cheaper than today. I somewhere heard that the automakers consider $8/gallon the turning point, where electric cars will become attractive to the mainstream.
Given the current pace, $8/gallon will become a reality within that time frame.

 

[LEAFfan]

At almost $40,000, people are going to walk away and buy a Versa instead. Most people need a "do-it-all" vehicle. A car they can take take on long weekend trip, run errands, go to work, and not be counting down the miles to a dead stop.
it will make no sense for the average car buyer to spend $15,000 more for a car that has 1/4 the range and takes a minimum of 8 hours to charge.

First of all Train, it's obvious you have NO clue about the LEAF and are just spouting FUD since you work for BIG OIL. People don't have to buy, but can lease and receive the full $7500 tax credit off the lease. If they choose to buy and can get the tax credit, that makes the car around $28K for both ways, NOT even close to $40K as you lied in your post.
Yep! That's exactly what it is for me, a do-it-all vehicle! Soon, there will be QCs along the freeways/Interstates, and those 'rare' extended trips will be fun to take! I need to rest, use the restroom, eat, etc. after an hour and a half of driving, so this will be great for me! By the time all those things are done, my LEAF will be ready to go (under 30 mins!).
LOL, a minimum of 8 hours to charge? Why don't you ask every LEAF owner if they have EVER charged their LEAF for 8 hours? Once again, you have no clue about the LEAF. The average charge time is no more than TWO hours! Even with the 120V, the ave. time is only 3-4 hours, not 8. And for me, I do most of my charging now in less than 30 mins (QCing is great)! When the 'ordinary' car buyer sees that they can charge in less than 30 mins., and use the LEAF as their Primary car, they will be buying LEAFs so fast it will make your head spin. So if you enjoy putting down the LEAF and being a troll, at least please get your facts straight.

 

[sproqitman]

I think a big mistake that is very commonly made, is looking at the sticker price. It is impossible in the U.S. to pay Sticker price for a LEAF right now because of the tax incentives. Even if you didn't make enough to have the tax liability for the $7500, you could just lease, and problem solved. So forget about $36k as that number simply doesn't matter. A 2012 Nissan Leaf SV is $27,700 and that's with no state incentives.

...Then when you factor in the cost of ownership the Leaf comes out way ahead.

No one does this, but you really need to look at 5-year cost of ownership and not sticker price. Edmunds.com has an online calculator:

True Cost to Own

Allows you to calculate 5-year TCO for various makes and models of vehicle. Once you factor in gasoline, taxes, and maintenance, the Leaf starts to look pretty good especially when you compare it to a comparably-sized (and equipped) car.

 

[evnow]

That's well understood. The real question is how many "early adopters, electric vehicle enthusiasts and other techies" are there ?

How many will there be if you can only get 4 gallons of gasoline a week under national emergency rationing?.. it could happen if trouble erupts in Iran. You could make a hefty profit reselling your weekly ration.

Well, if we have such an emergancy there will be a lot of other changes (and a great depression as well). It won't happen if there is "trouble in Iran". I can see that happen if the House of Saud falls.

Anyway, coming back to the question - given the current price & limitations, how many Leafs will get sold, if the supply is widely available nationwide.

My guess is 4K-5K per month. I don't think Nissan can sell 150K that they plan to make in Smyrna, until the early adopters come onboard.

It is possible to have a slight dip in the sales before early adopters start buying - like the hockey stick.

 

[mossyleaf]

I wanted to chime in on the demand question from One Dealers perspective. Demand in SD is rising because the cars are actually on the road, visible, and real. This will and is driving the next wave of buyers to me well beyond the early adopters. The challenge we are facing and other's much more so than myself is the production being spread so far and wide making monthly ordering extremely limited (7 units) or so will mean for the 6-700 Leafs on the ground in SD by this year's end probably won't hit 1k by the end of next year thus keeping the demand through the roof.

 

[evnow]

..making monthly ordering extremely limited (7 units) or so will ..

That is very small indeed. Looks like Nissan isn't making 4K per month, they had planned. New states (and countries) coming onboard means a lot of Leafs will get diverted to them.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

maybe i am just sooo biased i am not thinking clearly but see Nissan having no problems at all selling 150,000 Leafs a year in the US for years to come.

we as early adopters think that the rest of the country is not ready and can we blame them? when Pittsburghs nearest L2 charger is 500 miles away, i can see it being a bit difficult to sell an EV.

but Mossy said it best. for every Leaf that does get on the road. that will catch the interest of 100 people. 15 will seriously consider the option and 1-3 will buy.

Right now, Nissan is seeding the country starting with the areas that are EV friendly. i think we are a long way from market saturation especially in the intial launch areas and the reason why is...

well, lets put this discussion on hold and take it back up about the Middle of June which should be just about the time gas crosses $4 a gallon again

people talk about how expensive the Leaf is but at the same time i know families now paying $300 a month for gas and happy to do it because its not the $500 a month they were paying in July. its not gonna take much of me saying i have spent less than $500 FOR A YEARS worth of electricity for some brain cells to start sweating in their heads.

keep in mind, every year gas cycles upwards. usually bumps a quarter a year. now i just got gas in the Prius yesterday at $3.579. if the pattern sticks gas should drop down to around $3.30-3.35...at least i hope so.

gas prices

11/2010 $3.119
11/2009 $ 2.899

for Summer

5/2011 $3.98.9 (we did have gas over $4 but lucky enough that was during a 14 day period where i did not have to fillup and this at Costco which is cheapest in town for me0

6/2010 $3.199

6/2009 $2.759 (remember we were just starting to rebound from the recession. gas was actually less that $2 a gallon 6 months before that.

now, i think that if not for the financial failures we suffered late 2008. we would be over $4 in gas instead of the mid 3's.

gas is out. EV is the future. every day, more and more people are realizing that making EVs work is becoming less of an option and more of a requirement for survival

 

[tps]

However, I think when it comes to the larger aspects of the FUD such as charging times and range, I firmly believe these issues will disappear as more people become exposed to the technology, see them driving down the road, know friends and family who own them, and actually do some research themselves.

Seeing the LEAFs on the road and in friends and neighbors driveways is certainly one of the things which will turn the tide. (That's got a way to go here in PA, where I've never seen a LEAF in the wild, except when I rented the Hertz NYC LEAF for a couple days back in July.) Beside this, I think the other big thing required for acceptance by the public-at-large is the ability to buy a LEAF off the lot. We're starting to see the beginning of this (well, maybe not me at this point; I can't even order one yet here in PA), but I think it will take getting production at Smyrna up to speed before buying a LEAF off-the-lot becomes the norm.

 

[Train]

First of all Train, it's obvious you have NO clue about the LEAF and are just spouting FUD since you work for BIG OIL. People don't have to buy, but can lease and receive the full $7500 tax credit off the lease. If they choose to buy and can get the tax credit, that makes the car around $28K for both ways, NOT even close to $40K as you lied in your post.
Yep! That's exactly what it is for me, a do-it-all vehicle! Soon, there will be QCs along the freeways/Interstates, and those 'rare' extended trips will be fun to take! I need to rest, use the restroom, eat, etc. after an hour and a half of driving, so this will be great for me! By the time all those things are done, my LEAF will be ready to go (under 30 mins!).
LOL, a minimum of 8 hours to charge? Why don't you ask every LEAF owner if they have EVER charged their LEAF for 8 hours? Once again, you have no clue about the LEAF. The average charge time is no more than TWO hours! Even with the 120V, the ave. time is only 3-4 hours, not 8. And for me, I do most of my charging now in less than 30 mins (QCing is great)! When the 'ordinary' car buyer sees that they can charge in less than 30 mins., and use the LEAF as their Primary car, they will be buying LEAFs so fast it will make your head spin. So if you enjoy putting down the LEAF and being a troll, at least please get your facts straight.

How is giving my opinion "putting down the Leaf?"

LOL. I work for big oil? That's news to me. You called me a liar and then state I work for big oil when you would have absolutely no knowledge of where I work and what I do. Do you work for "Big Electricity?"

How is it everytime someone says anything remotely critical of EV's or the LEAF, it's always FUD? I say it has a range of about 75 miles (which the EPA confirms) and that's FUD? That's a fact. If you drive it 70 mph, it may be less. If you drive 45 mph, it will be more. If I said a car has poor mileage because it gets 14 mpg, is that FUD?

And that price you stated, of $28,000 is a lease. Not everyone will qualify nor want to lease (although I'd recommend it if you can). If they prefer to purchase, it will be around $36,000 (SV $800 less, SL$1250 more), +tax (anywhere from $1600-$3600 or so), plus destination $850, plus 220V hookup and charge station $2000, and any other options such as floor mats, splash guards, etc. Even if someone qualifies for the full $7500 tax credit (which all won't), it still ends up at around $34,000. Maybe a dealer discount of $1000 and it's $33,000. CA and other states offer rebates so it might drop to $31,000 or so IF they qualify for the FULL tax credit.

And when they are finally installed, how is it going to take just a half hour to charge if there are 3 people in front of you waiting to charge? Look what's already happening at charge station parking spaces. And there's what, only a three, perhaps four thousand LEAFS in CA?

The average charge time is no more than TWO hours! Even with the 120V, the ave. time is only 3-4 hours, not 8.

Average charge time is 3-4 hours with 120V? 2 hours at 220V? Yeah, if you drive only 15-20 miles a day. The Nissan site itself states that it will take around 7 hours with 220V and about 20 hours with 120V from a depleted battery.

You're responding with emotion. Perhaps taking this less personally might help.

 

[Train]

Practical? Is finding a gas station on a cold rainy night practical? I had range anxiety in my Silverado the other day as I started up the mountain road I usually use my Leaf for - no gas staions on that road, and no ability to regenerate going downhill with an ICE. I made it home with a low fuel warning, something I don't see often when I drive electric. There are still many places a gas powered vehicle is also not practical, and I would dare to say that around schools is one of them. Why should we allow it?

What does a cold rainy night have to do with anything? Because you failed to fill up the truck doesn't make it less practical. What's more practical, a 400 mile range or 75-100? What's more practical, taking five minutes to full up a tank and having another 400 miles, or trying to find a plug somewhere to charge and take hours? What's more practical, a handful of charge stations in very few locations or tens of thousands of gas stations? That's what the average car buyer is going to be thinking about.

An electric car like the Leaf is not only practical, it is for many situations the only practical car available.

What "many" situations?

The convience of the Leaf is wonderful. What could be easier than a car with no smog checks or oil changes?

An oil change is $30 every 5000 miles. How much is anyone's time worth waiting for a car to charge for hours because you need 20 extra miles to get home? How convenient is the Leaf to take on a trip of 100 miles? 50 miles and back? How convenient is it to charge when you live in an apt, have to park on the street, own one car?

Even a 40 mile one way trip needs planning. Are there charge stations on my route? How fast can I go to get the range I need? How convenient is it to keep the heat or A/C off just to get a few more miles to make it home?

Now let us talk about fuel issues. Don't talk on a cell phone while you are filling up your ICE, you could catch fire.

OK...

Don't get back in your car and rub your feet on the luxurious carpet or the static spark might light you up when you disconnect the fuel hose.

I guess perhaps if you take the hose inside the car. Otherwise, why would you disconnect the fuel hose?

After I plug in my Leaf, I can go to sleep in my nice warm bed, safe that it will charge while I am at home. I can talk on the phone and rub my feet in the carpet without fear.

You really think people fear explosions regarding talking on the phone and rubbing feet on the carpet?

You seem to accept these impractical, inconvenient issues with an ICE, but I do not.

No, I'm giving my opinion that for the current stickered price of the vehicle for the limited range that you get, the average car buyer will find it impractical and inconvenient. I'm thinking the average car buyer doesn't think about cell phones and car fires while fueling.

I am very grateful to not have them in my life much any more. When I can I will convert my Silverado to electric, or buy a truck that was built to run on electricity. Wish I had the option in years past, perhaps in the future I will.

Maybe someday you will.

I have to say that for reliable, an electric vehicle has any ICE beat. No starter to malfunction, no belts to break, no repairs of gaskets or oil leaks or a myriad of things that disable ICE vehicles on the steep uphills. This will be evident to all soon enough, and the market share that Nissan is building will pay off in the long term.

Most cars today run 120,000 miles before anything like that begins to occur. At 120,000 miles, I would say that Leaf battery will not be giving you near the mileage it is now. How much is that going to cost if you decide to replace it? The Leaf is too new to know what will go wrong (if anything). I disagree with your comment about market share as EV's will continue to be niche vehicles for now and in the near future.

Add to that I don't have to swipe my credit card every week to fuel it up (I drive about 350 miles a week, 9000 since I bought it in March). The Nissan Leaf is a very thrifty, convenient, and practical way to get around town. Anyone that says different doesn't know what they are saying.

No, but you have to add in the cost of your monthly payments unless someone gave you that Leaf.

I'm merely giving my opinion as to why I believe the Leaf will be a slow seller, especially in the upcoming months.

 

[smkettner]

The Nissan site itself states that it will take around 7 hours with 220V and about 20 hours with 120V from a depleted battery.

From low battery warning to 100% takes mine 5 hours max to charge. That is after about 85 miles driven.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

...I'm merely giving my opinion as to why I believe the Leaf will be a slow seller, especially in the upcoming months.

hey it does not work for you. i get it. but fact of the matter is you are cherry picking scenarios to make your point fit. i can do that too but why bother?

the Leaf IS NOT SUPPOSED TO FIT EVERYONE'S NEEDS

so that means yes, if we try hard enough, we can find reasons to not buy one. its a personal decision based on individual needs and capabilities.

ok? better now?


"personally" i think you are wrong...very wrong. i personally think the 60% of households that require 2+ cars will seriously think about it. and the estimated 3-5% EV market penetration projected by half a dozen overpaid entities whose job it is to predict that kind of stuff will be more than Nissan can build for several years.

but hey!! its just what i think. either you will be right or i will be right or we will both be partially right. but i am saying, i think it will be 3+ years before we see extra Leafs sitting on the lots. right now, its like an average of 6 days or so on dealer lots. i am guessing it will be mid 2014 before time on the lot exceeds say 10-14 days.

 

[klapauzius]

I think Trains has made valid points, coming from an age, where oil seemed unlimited and
global warming was not seen as a problem.

If you have to do long commutes, and have no money to buy 2 cars and have to park on the street, yes the LEAF is not practical...for now.

But, if just every tenth gas station in your neighborhood had a quickcharger, even street parking without overnight charging would not be a problem.

Many apartment buildings have covered parking, and it would be easy to put in L2 charging there.
And most people have commutes <100 miles round trip.
(Makes you wonder, at ~ 20 cents/mile it would cost you $20 to get to work every day for 100 mile commute....pretty dumb to have pay for getting paid)



So to how many people does the above description really fit?