Long commutes : Sustainable ?

[DaveinOlyWA]

well we dont have a choice here. the end of affordable gas will not destroy mankind but it will force us to make major changes in how we live and those changes WILL NOT be fatal. they will not be welcomed that is for sure. change never is. but we will survive.

 

[Coffee_Slurry]

i hate to say it, but until gas hits $5 a gallon and people start selling their cars and getting jobs closer to their home, etc. we will not do anything at the community level to work towards any long term solution.

Gas at $5 won't cause many to move. I'm paying $3.59, and an extra $1.50 a gallon won't nearly cover the additional property tax of moving alone, let alone the more expensive houses near work centers. It also wouldn't put a dent in our "lifestyle", which seems to be the crux of all these "face reality" arguments. For someone who cares only about their own standard of living, and not about the environment, it's just cost.

Gas would have to get to around $10 to $15 to $20 to make the mere cost of fuel a motivator to move to a more expensive place.

$5 gas.. been there, done that, and look how much changed?

 

[evnow]

Gas at $5 won't cause many to move. I'm paying $3.59, and an extra $1.50 a gallon won't nearly cover the additional property tax of moving alone, let alone the more expensive houses near work centers. It also wouldn't put a dent in our "lifestyle", which seems to be the crux of all these "face reality" arguments. For someone who cares only about their own standard of living, and not about the environment, it's just cost.

Gas would have to get to around $10 to $15 to $20 to make the mere cost of fuel a motivator to move to a more expensive place.

$5 gas.. been there, done that, and look how much changed?

Even though in real terms the $ amount is small - there will be a big psychological impact. Last time the gas hit $4 I started driving less.

People at the edges will get affected first - esp. when they realize the price is here to stay - and is not because of some nefarious speculators who will be prosecuted and then the price will be happily back to "normal".

Then the new home constructions in far off places will get affected. Now people only consider the waste of time during commute - they will start looking at the cost.

When the rationing starts, we would have hit the big lifestyle changes. Peak oil will not suddenly change lifestyles overnight - but it will. BTW, the prices will not hit $15 in real terms. Severe rationing will take the toll much before that.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Gas at $5 won't cause many to move. I'm paying $3.59, and an extra $1.50 a gallon won't nearly cover the additional property tax of moving alone, let alone the more expensive houses near work centers. It also wouldn't put a dent in our "lifestyle", which seems to be the crux of all these "face reality" arguments. For someone who cares only about their own standard of living, and not about the environment, it's just cost.

Gas would have to get to around $10 to $15 to $20 to make the mere cost of fuel a motivator to move to a more expensive place.

$5 gas.. been there, done that, and look how much changed?

its great you have the extra money to spend. i think you will find yourself in the minority when gas hits $5 a gallon.

moving or changing jobs will the be last resort. carpooling, public transportation and changing vehicles will all be part of options tried first.

let me ask you? what would gas have to be before you would invest in a vehicle that would be used for commuting only?

because i know a lot of people who drive something now that gets crap for mileage for no other reason because they can afford to. these are the same people who seriously considered parking those 15 mpg vehicle and "picking up something for commuting purposes" when gas was $4 a gallon. a lot did and most bitched about spending extra money "for nothing" when gas went back down.

my Father in law has a pickup. well he needs it. he has a boat, camper, etc. but he also drives it everyday as his transportation. well, when we got the Zenn, we dumped our 1989 corolla and he gladly took it to do his daily driving and continued until gas hit $2 a gallon and he determined "it wasnt worth fixing". it did need work and he would have had to spend at least $500 to keep it running.

now, he is back to driving his pickup daily. but when he is back to $50-60 a week in gas or more like he was before, he will be back to getting another car again and he wont be alone.

so ya, some will change their commute, but most will find other options

 

[Smidge204]

$5 gas.. been there, done that, and look how much changed?

Been there for how long? Right about the time people start feeling the pinch and get serious about reducing usage, the price drops again.

I would argue that the cost of fossil fuels need to be artificially high - especially imported fuels (petroleum) - to spur action. I'd say tax it to force gasoline to at least $5/gallon and use the revenue to fund sustainable alternatives.

And I would argue that if we get to the point where rationing becomes necessary, it's already too late.
=Smidge=

 

[Coffee_Slurry]

its great you have the extra money to spend. i think you will find yourself in the minority when gas hits $5 a gallon.

I don't know what you pay for gas, but it's $3.59 at the Shell down the street, and it has been $4.50 to $5.00 before. I am seriously puzzled by this "when gas hits $5" talk -- We've ALREADY done that. It caused some additional "fuel surcharges" from UPS and Fedex, and more expensive jet flights. It was not a game-changer, and did not cause the suburbs to evacuate.

You are seriously overestimating the impact of $5/gal fuel. I feel like I'm the only one that remembers it. (Like when our California fuel was priced in liters, and speed limits were marked in km/hr as well as mph.)

let me ask you? what would gas have to be before you would invest in a vehicle that would be used for commuting only?

Um, $3? I have a commuting motorcycle that gets 60mpg. $5 gas impacted me not at all. Starbucks raising the cost of an espresso shot had more material impact on my lifestyle. I'm buying a Leaf, right? That's just me. Yesterday I parked next to a first-gen Hummer, complete with intake snorkle.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Groundloop; what are you exactly? do you need to have everything spelled out for you? have you been out of the country or something?

do you think your own little life is how it is for everyone? do you think you will "ride it out" no matter what the rest of your neighbors has to go thru? do you really feel that insulated from this? are you really THAT rich?

do you honestly think our 4 month stint at $4 a gallon is enough to conclude that we would just "accept it" and go on?

 

[Jimmydreams]

I would argue that the cost of fossil fuels need to be artificially high - especially imported fuels (petroleum) - to spur action. I'd say tax it to force gasoline to at least $5/gallon and use the revenue to fund sustainable alternatives.

And I would argue that if we get to the point where rationing becomes necessary, it's already too late.
=Smidge=

Nah....just turn off about 40% of the "war machine money spigot" and there's MORE than enough money to fund sustainable alternatives.

It'll never happen, but I can dream, can't I?

 

[Coffee_Slurry]

Groundloop; what are you exactly? do you need to have everything spelled out for you? have you been out of the country or something?

I'll ignore this part, since this an otherwise interesting discussion.

do you think your own little life is how it is for everyone? do you think you will "ride it out" no matter what the rest of your neighbors has to go thru? do you really feel that insulated from this? are you really THAT rich?

Nope. There is plenty of economic diversity, but that doesn't mean that affordable housing will open up downtown.
My neighbors will also ride it out, as they already have.

Do you have any idea what it costs to live "downtown" where no car is required or a 3-mile commute is possible? Do you think $5/gal gas, year after year, comes within spitting distance of the cost of a $700k condo?

Or to fit it into your discussion style: "Am I the ONLY one with a pocket calculator?!"

Let me break it down: If you have a 25mile commute, from those "unsustainable" suburbs, and drive a used Prius, what are you spending on gas at $5/gal? I'll call it $5/day, or $100/month maybe $150 if you drive something wasteful. That's just NOTHING in terms of a housing change to the city center, or a lifestyle change. Show me your math that shows the suburbs collapsing at $5/gal so I can see where we're diverging.

do you honestly think our 4 month stint at $4 a gallon is enough to conclude that we would just "accept it" and go on?

Yup, more or less.

Smaller changes would be made, but it's not going to re-architect entire city structures and decimate the suburbs, which is what this thread was pushing.

It's clear we don't agree on the magnitude of impact that "$5/gal" gas would have.

I don't know what you pay for gas in OlyWA, but here in San Diego, $3.25 to $3.50, with the nearest station being $3.49 this morning. If you think another $1.50 will break the back of the working class, and they'll downsize their 3br 2ba to an apartment closer to work, you are out of touch.

 

[Adrian]

Just for context, it might be worth checking gas prices in other parts of the world, like Europe. In may countries there, gas is about $8/gallon. In most cases incomes are lower than the US and taxes are higher. There is more public transportation, and fewer and smaller cars on the average. But on the whole, no earth-shattering differences from the US. I too believe we'll need gas prices over $10 before any significant changes take place.

Then again it depends on your definition of "significant".

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

i think you are doing a great job of helping to promote alternative options, but i also truly believe that $5 gas will erode everyone's extra cash including yours.

the cost of gas is only the very beginning. wait until fresh produce goes up 150%. your grocery bill is up 25% along with the doubling of your gas bill.

it will add up and faster than you think. to be honest with ya. i think we have the same mindset and are simply looking at the same problem from two different angles. "we" are both prepared and positioned well to ride out a storm but unfortunately i think a "safe port" in this storm will not be as easy to find as we might think

 

[evnow]

Just for context, it might be worth checking gas prices in other parts of the world, like Europe. In may countries there, gas is about $8/gallon. In most cases incomes are lower than the US and taxes are higher. There is more public transportation, and fewer and smaller cars on the average. But on the whole, no earth-shattering differences from the US. I too believe we'll need gas prices over $10 before any significant changes take place.

In Europe a significatly more % travel using public transport. Not to speak of Amsterdam, for eg., where everyone (it seems) commutes by cycle.

They also spend a lot of public money on public transport.

Both these would be earth-shattering in the US.

 

[Coffee_Slurry]

Look at the title of this thread, and the invective from earlier posts. Nobody is arguing against "expensive gas will erode everyone's extra cash", a given, so I'm not following you in that direction.

And none of the ancillary expense increases (groceries, produce, shipments, travel) will be changed one bit by moving out of the suburbs. The Prius driver spending $75 today would spend what, $100 $120 at $5/gallon. He's not going to pack up and move out of his ranch house over it, regardless of how much discretionary cash gets pinched.

The most impacted will be those whose own business becomes unprofitable with expensive fuel (construction, deliveries, mobile services). Again, no impact on the 'suburbs' or long commutes.

If anything, extreme gas prices will RAISE the disparity between city-center and suburb housing costs, making it less likely that those would like to move closer actually can. Gas will be cheaper than relocating at $5/gal, and long commutes are certainly sustainable for those so inclined.

"The US appears to have peaked at an annual 8,100 miles by car per capita, and Japan is holding steady at 2,500 miles."
http://www.miller-mccune.com/environment/a-road-less-traveled-26524/

 

[AndyH]

With respect, Adrian, which of those fuels will help make my diesel car go?

A: Natural Gas, see Pickens Plan: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pickens_Plan Also Biomethane or anything that has enough Carbon (trash) in it to allow for the use of Fisher-Tropsch for conversion to diesel

Right, Adrian - the car could be converted. But speaking as a district rep for the PP, the NG portion of the plan is not about 'converting' anything - and it's not about using NG in anything smaller than a class-8 truck (semi). As has already been pointed out earlier, legal conversions have their own challenges.

Stop for a minute and look at the NG process from well to wheels. Much of that mythical 200 years of NG is based on fracking - and part of the fracking fluid is #2 diesel. Take a long view - how sustainable is NG? And what does that 200 years become when many of the class-8 trucks are running NG?

Yes - the Pickens Plan suggests that we use NG only as a bridge fuel - to offset some imported oil today so we can redirect that money to developing a new transportation infrastructure. I have zero confidence that we as a nation will use that opportunity. I expect as a group that "we'll" take the path of least resistance and simply use NG to take some price pressure off oil and give us a few more years of cheaper fuel.

In the end, it'll still take a crisis to get the country to wake up. And since the minority with the real power don't worry about $6 or $10 gallon gas, it could get ugly for the majority of Americans before things start to change.

 

[TomT]

Nope, people can buy a house for half or a third of what it costs in the city and they will continue to do so. The savings will pay for a hundred lifetimes worth of gas at almost any projected price...
And if they bought years ago, the discrepancy is even bigger. To the vast majority, that greatly outweighs the negatives and will continue to for decades. And that doesn't even take in to account the quality of life issues which are almost always better further out...

Then the new home constructions in far off places will get affected. Now people only consider the waste of time during commute - they will start looking at the cost.

 

[Adrian]

With respect, Adrian, which of those fuels will help make my diesel car go?

A: Natural Gas, see Pickens Plan: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pickens_Plan Also Biomethane or anything that has enough Carbon (trash) in it to allow for the use of Fisher-Tropsch for conversion to diesel

Right, Adrian - the car could be converted. But speaking as a district rep for the PP, the NG portion of the plan is not about 'converting' anything - and it's not about using NG in anything smaller than a class-8 truck (semi). As has already been pointed out earlier, legal conversions have their own challenges.
Agreed. Even the cars could use a fumigation based cng-diesel blend at low actual equipment cost. As far as the legal challenges, yes, the EPA and CARB would have to become more concerned about cleaner air than their own bureaucracies. I'd like to think that would eventually happen, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Stop for a minute and look at the NG process from well to wheels. Much of that mythical 200 years of NG is based on fracking - and part of the fracking fluid is #2 diesel. Take a long view - how sustainable is NG? And what does that 200 years become when many of the class-8 trucks are running NG?
True, it's not ideal, but it's better than what we have now. I'm assuming you must see this shift as positive overall otherwise you would not be a PP plan district rep? Add bio-methane at a local level and transform coal to diesel via Fisher-Tropsch and it gets even better.

Yes - the Pickens Plan suggests that we use NG only as a bridge fuel - to offset some imported oil today so we can redirect that money to developing a new transportation infrastructure. I have zero confidence that we as a nation will use that opportunity. I expect as a group that "we'll" take the path of least resistance and simply use NG to take some price pressure off oil and give us a few more years of cheaper fuel.

In the end, it'll still take a crisis to get the country to wake up. And since the minority with the real power don't worry about $6 or $10 gallon gas, it could get ugly for the majority of Americans before things start to change.

Agreed, $6 at a minimum sustained, with peaks up to $10 should cause enough pain that the general public will start making personal changes and demand accountability from elected official that so far (8 past presidents) have done little to nothing.

The John Stewart clip I posted earlier in this thread sums it up nicely.

 

[evnow]

Nope, people can buy a house for half or a third of what it costs in the city and they will continue to do so.

People are not as spreadsheet based as you would think (unlike businesses).

 

[Adrian]

Nope, people can buy a house for half or a third of what it costs in the city and they will continue to do so. The savings will pay for a hundred lifetimes worth of gas at almost any projected price...
And if they bought years ago, the discrepancy is even bigger. To the vast majority, that greatly outweighs the negatives and will continue to for decades.

Then the new home constructions in far off places will get affected. Now people only consider the waste of time during commute - they will start looking at the cost.

The there's the cost of education for one's children (if you have them). Most public schools in the city aren't very good judging by API scores. Private ones can cost thousands per month. One can find good public schools a little ways out of the city. So: houses at 1/2 the cost and no additional cost of private education costing at least $2,000 per month for 2 kids vs. the city residence with insane real estate cost and crappy public schools. Hmmm....I'll take the longer commute and drive cng and electric.

 

[evnow]

Agreed, $6 at a minimum sustained, with peaks up to $10 should cause enough pain that the general public will start making personal changes and demand accountability from elected official that so far (8 past presidents) have done little to nothing.

That won't happen (without govt intervention). We will have sever recession if the price goes up fast.

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/911469--oil-to-revisit-triple-digit-prices-next-year-rubin

 

[AndyH]

Adrian,

My personal 'center of mass' for being part of the Pickens Plan is wind turbines. The plan is to use wind to offset the NG used to generate electricity so the NG can be used as a bridge fuel in class-8 long-haul trucks. The only way the bridge fuel will work is if we use the cash not spent on oil to work on the post-bridge plan. I don't see any signs of the post-bridge plan. And the NG portion of the Pickens Plan is still stuck in the Senate.

We can synthesize liquid fuels, but we don't have anywhere near the capacity to make a dent in our fuel needs. So no, F-T isn't "the" answer. There are no magic bullets for this problem - and the clock's ticking. Yes - we CAN fix the entire problem. But WILL we?

Education and traditional cities... Check out the increasing rates of home-schooling for an overall assessment of public schools. It's time we wrap our minds around the fact that we're no longer in either an agrarian or industrial age - we're in the information age. And that means that we don't have to move to cities and don't have to commute. In most parts of the US we don't have to live in houses attached to gas lines, water lines, sewer lines, or power poles either - but look at how many people choose to do that by default. We're not going to change anything until we stop being lemmings and start breaking old habits.