Nissan Gears Up for US LEAF Production by Doubling Workforce

[jkirkebo]

Whatever better battery shows up in 2015 will only make the car cheaper and lighter, but it won't have a longer range.

Only if they don't want repeat sales. An owner of a three year old Leaf will want something more than just a cheaper Leaf to upgrade to the new model. If they don't offer more, the Leaf owner will either just keep the old Leaf or upgrade to a Tesla. Neither is in Nissans interest.

I suspect a larger battery will be offered. The new chemistry should allow for 44kWh of capacity (86% increase in energy density). They should offer a premium 44kWh version and a cheap 22kWh version with half the cells (4s per modules, half the modules of the 2s2p type). This would entice existing owners to upgrade, and used Leafs will be available to those who can't afford a new 22kWh version. A win-win situation.

I would certainly upgrade to a 44kWh version, even at a cost of $5k-$8k more than todays 24kWh Leaf.

 

[davewill]

And if we follow that same model, the price of the Prius was never dropped over the years. It became a nicer vehicle with more features, but the actual price point was never lowered. I suspect the same will happen with the Leaf, at least for a number of years... To a significant extent, government rebates will also dictate the price point...

Yes, I expect LEAF to become more upscale and keep it's price range and for a new budget EV to take the lower price point after rebates are gone.

 

[SanDust]

Of course it would depend on how automated the line is, but a labor force of 1300 for both the Leaf production line and the battery plant is probably consistent with maybe 45K units a year.

What, don't you have an outlet in your house?

I had a lot of outlets, but the Leaf requires a 240V outlet. I had to spend $2500 to upgrade service to 200A before getting the EVSE. The infrastructure for even home charging is expensive, not at all like finding an outlet for consumer electronics.

 

[thankyouOB]

Where are they going to find 150 to 200 thousand customers to sell these to a year. I am not seeing this happening until the charging infrastructure is totally in place. I hope I am wrong.

According to a Nissan rep I spoke with in September, the plan for the Smyrna plant was to produce 150,000 LEAFs a year and export 75,000. Whether that's still the case, I don't know.

I have my doubts as to whether Nissan can sell 75,000 LEAFs a year here unless they do a really good marketing/education campaign or gas prices get really high.

since half the inventory is for exports, it is easy to see where the demand for the Smyrna-built cars is going to be; where the gas prices are already approaching $10 a gallon--Europe.

 

[Smidge204]

What, don't you have an outlet in your house?

I had a lot of outlets, but the Leaf requires a 240V outlet. I had to spend $2500 to upgrade service to 200A before getting the EVSE.

No it doesn't. The LEAF will charge just fine on a standard 15A wall socket, albeit at roughly half the rate of a 240V supply. Whether or not you "had" to have a 240V connection is a function of your driving habits and needs.
=Smidge=

 

[garsh]

...Only because I think they'll end up selling in similar numbers, because they are both "secondary vehicles". When Nissan comes out with an electric car with a 300 mile range, then I think a much more sizable chunk of the population will consider getting one as an "only" or "primary" vehicle.

Like many folks here, my LEAF is my primary vehicle: the one that gets the most use and miles, by a wide margin. My ICE car is my secondary or backup vehicle.

I'm calling my Leaf "secondary", but only in the sense that I would never own one as my only vehicle. I will definitely be putting more miles on it than on my other car.

 

[TonyWilliams]

I would certainly upgrade to a 44kWh version, even at a cost of $5k-$8k more than todays 24kWh Leaf.

I would, too, but I just don't see it in the next few years. They have data that says everybody drive 30-40 miles, and presumably won't have much trouble selling those cars for years (should oil keep going up).

Longer range stuff will have a nice, cheap gas burning Volt type arrangement.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

keep in mind the England Plant will go online in mid 2013 with another 50,000 capacity. Nissan is all in!

 

[smkettner]

Of course it would depend on how automated the line is, but a labor force of 1300 for both the Leaf production line and the battery plant is probably consistent with maybe 45K units a year.

What, don't you have an outlet in your house?

I had a lot of outlets, but the Leaf requires a 240V outlet. I had to spend $2500 to upgrade service to 200A before getting the EVSE. The infrastructure for even home charging is expensive, not at all like finding an outlet for consumer electronics.

Not all homes need upgrade. Mine had a 240v circuit as required by local city building code.
I hope you did not feel obligated to use AV or other oversize 40 amp EVSE.

 

[Nubo]

Of course it would depend on how automated the line is, but a labor force of 1300 for both the Leaf production line and the battery plant is probably consistent with maybe 45K units a year.

What, don't you have an outlet in your house?

I had a lot of outlets, but the Leaf requires a 240V outlet. I had to spend $2500 to upgrade service to 200A before getting the EVSE. The infrastructure for even home charging is expensive, not at all like finding an outlet for consumer electronics.

I've been charging since December on the included 120V portable EVSE. Truth be told, I could probably "live happily ever after" with that arrangement, but still working on getting a 240 hooked up for a few reasons,

- convenience of being able to leave the Nissan unit in the car
- ability to limit charging to night time.
- the occasional instance where faster charging might enable a longer evening trip, etc...
- 240V charging is significantly more efficient

 

[adric22]

- convenience of being able to leave the Nissan unit in the car
- ability to limit charging to night time.
- the occasional instance where faster charging might enable a longer evening trip, etc...
- 240V charging is significantly more efficient

Believe it or not, your first concern was a big one for me. Despite the fact that I have almost never used it, I like knowing the little EVSE is in the car with me wherever I go. It is a big pain to take it out and put it back in the car every day.

We used the included L1 for about 2 weeks when we first got the car. The biggest problem was when my wife would drive it to work (40 miles) it would take the rest of the evening and night to recharge it back to 100%. That meant evening trips weren't really possible.

 

[evnow]

I would certainly upgrade to a 44kWh version, even at a cost of $5k-$8k more than todays 24kWh Leaf.

I would, too, but I just don't see it in the next few years. They have data that says everybody drive 30-40 miles, and presumably won't have much trouble selling those cars for years (should oil keep going up).

Longer range stuff will have a nice, cheap gas burning Volt type arrangement.

I vote for jkirkebo's idea. It makes a lot of sense to offer a cheaper 100 mile Leaf and a costlier 200 mile Leaf. They may also bring out a PHEV version of Leaf, if LEAF as a brand becomes as popular as Prius. Then you want to spin off all kinds of vehicles and reuse the LEAF brand name.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

on power panels; in many cases if your house is older, an upgrade might be needed. if its newer, it is not. around here (remember i was in the moving stage within 3 months after getting my Leaf) every house less than 20 years old had a TON of extra capacity. many are built for a central HVAC system but few have it allowing several additional circuits to be added.

in every house we looked at except for a handful built in the 60's or so, there was 200 amp panel and most were barely half full. for older houses there were some pretty shady setups.

as far as charging and moving the EVSE around. i carried it with me on a half dozen camping trips, etc and it served its purpose, but i also did Phil's EVSE mod and it is my ONLY source of charging. so, 97% of the time, it sits in the garage. around here, i always rely on public charging if i need to make a longer trip and those options are growing by leaps and bounds every day...

too bad we just cant get those QC's that were mapped out for us over 6 months ago started

 

[SanDust]

No it doesn't. The LEAF will charge just fine on a standard 15A wall socket, albeit at roughly half the rate of a 240V supply. Whether or not you "had" to have a 240V connection is a function of your driving habits and needs.

You can dig post holes with a spoon but most people don't find it convenient. Nissan doesn't think trickle charging provides a good ownership experience and I agree with them.

 

[scottf200]

They may also bring out a PHEV [plug-in hybrid electric vehicle] version of Leaf, if LEAF as a brand becomes as popular as Prius.

:shock:

 

[Smidge204]

No it doesn't. The LEAF will charge just fine on a standard 15A wall socket, albeit at roughly half the rate of a 240V supply. Whether or not you "had" to have a 240V connection is a function of your driving habits and needs.

You can dig post holes with a spoon but most people don't find it convenient. Nissan doesn't think trickle charging provides a good ownership experience and I agree with them.

Your subjective opinion that the 120V charging option is too slow does not change the fact that 120V is possible, and so your original comment that the LEAF requires a 240V connection is still objectively false. Neener neener.
=Smidge=

 

[adric22]

Your subjective opinion that the 120V charging option is too slow does not change the fact that 120V is possible, and so your original comment that the LEAF requires a 240V connection is still objectively false. Neener neener.

I would agree. Considering some of us folks here drove home-made EVs before the Leaf ever came out, we were quite used to half of the range and very slow charging. Even though I'm glad I have the 240V EVSE, I could most certainly keep driving my leaf using only 120V charging. It would just be less convenient.

 

[Herm]

Nissan has to lower prices to match the Fed $7500 tax credit.. that $30k is the effective cost of the Leaf until they do a drastic remodel. I believe they will lower the cost to match that as the credit expires.. and then as the costs fall further they will start increasing range and luxury much like the Prius has done.

 

[garsh]

Your subjective opinion that the 120V charging option is too slow does not change the fact that 120V is possible

I would agree. Considering some of us folks here drove home-made EVs before the Leaf ever came out, we were quite used to half of the range and very slow charging.

That's fine. I'm also planning to forgo installing an L2 charger in my home. But realize that we are the exception - most people will not be willing to make these kinds of adjustments to their lives. That's why I think Leaf sales are going to remain fairly low until some changes are made.

I also like jkirkebo's idea. A 200-mile Leaf would allow me to use it in several additional situations. I was considering getting a Model S for the additional range, but I need a new car NOW, and the low-end S isn't going to be available for a while yet.

 

[Nubo]

Your subjective opinion that the 120V charging option is too slow does not change the fact that 120V is possible

I would agree. Considering some of us folks here drove home-made EVs before the Leaf ever came out, we were quite used to half of the range and very slow charging.

That's fine. I'm also planning to forgo installing an L2 charger in my home. But realize that we are the exception - most people will not be willing to make these kinds of adjustments to their lives. That's why I think Leaf sales are going to remain fairly low until some changes are made.

I also like jkirkebo's idea. A 200-mile Leaf would allow me to use it in several additional situations. I was considering getting a Model S for the additional range, but I need a new car NOW, and the low-end S isn't going to be available for a while yet.

Not sure, I saw some fairly radical changes in terms of changes that people were suddenly willing to make in the late 70's thanks to the oil shortages. They started driving small Hondas instead of big Chevys -- something they wouldn't have considered previously. Then cheap gas came back for awhile and we all started driving trucks. So the question about what people will accept really boils down to 2 things
- capability of the EV
- price of gasoline

One is improving, the other getting worse. Somewhere in the future there is an intersection.