Why not? You just assert that 4,000 cars are cancellations, which means you actually think that fewer than 10% of Model S customers want a 40kWh battery, standard suspension or a red car? It might surprise you, but red tends to be a rather popular color (5th most popular overall).
If I was conservatively estimating demand, I'd guess that 6-8% of customers would want the 40kWh battery
(TMC user poll was 6%), and 15% of the remaining customers would want the standard suspension. According to Forbes 10% of North American cars sold are red (5. Red - Top 10 Most Popular Car Colors - Forbes).
Under those assumptions that would leave us with ~3,200 customers of your remaining 10.5k who want options not yet manufactured. That leaves 2,100 which are potential cancellations, which is ~16% of your 13,500 cars. Tesla has reported a 5-10% cancellation rate, so that's not a massive increase. But we have reports from Zextraterrestrial (and others) that production right now is actually closer to 480 cars per week. During the last conference call Elon stated that production would be HIGHER than 400 cars per week by the end of 2012 in order to start trimming the wait list and meet demand, and we have info which indicates that Tesla has reached that goal.
The extra 80 cars per week delivers ~1000 cars in your 13 weeks, which pushes potential cancellations down to ~1,100 which is ~8%, or right in the range that Tesla has reported. Again, there is no reason to believe that we have an exceptionally high number of cancellations. There might be, but there is no evidence, and it's very much at odds with the real data we have on increasing demand.
