Official Tesla Model S thread

[edatoakrun]

Anyone trying to follow S sales has probably noticed the recent large divergences (nicely shown in the chart at the first link below) of S monthly sales estimates from various sources.

About those U.S. Tesla sales numbers: None of them are true

January 12, 2015 By Bertel Schmitt

Last week, InsideEVs said that Tesla sold 3,500 Model S in the U.S. in December, outselling Nissan’s best-selling Leaf. Nissan sells more of its all electric Leaf in the U.S. alone (2014: 30,200) than Tesla sells Model S world-wide (2014: ????), but then there is that ADD epidemic to reckon with. Reduced to “Mosdel S sells more than Leaf” (140 chars, you know) the report quickly did ricochet through Tesla’s premiere PR platform, Twitter. Twitter is a battleground of Tesla Longs and Shorts, yelling at each other 24/7, and even the flimsiest piece of data is used like the Rev. Jeremiah Wright treats the gospel. The problem is: Not just the perception given is wrong. InsideEVs’ Tesla number is made up, pulled straight from thin air. Or possibly worse.

Sounding a bit fishy, the InsideEVs number was put into question by a few business sites, casting faint rays of doubt upon the report. At the Daily Kanban, we have two, much bigger problems:
1.All U.S. Model S reports you can read so far are wrong.
2.Barring an external audit, we will most likely never find out who is right...

By not releasing numbers, Tesla creates much bigger nonsense. As long as Tesla does not release robust numbers, they will be made up elsewhere.

If Musk would have been in the car industry a little longer, he would know by now that the auto business runs on statistics even more than an army marches on its stomach. Professional car counters abhor the vacuum of empty data fields...

One would believe that the estimates are at least educated guesses. If so, a common pattern would emerge. It does not. In the chart above, we plotted month by month the Tesla Model S sales estimates made by two of the most respected data sources in the industry, Automotive News and Autodata. We also added the estimates rendered each month by the go-to site when it comes to data on electric vehicles, InsideEVs. As you can see, the guesses do not agree at all. Tesla’s monthly sales depend on who gives them to you. In the alleged record month of December, Autodata guessed 1,440 units, Automotive News guessed 2,200 units, InsideEVs thinks it’s more like 3,500 units. The crimes against statistics go unpunished. The only one who could debate the guesses is Tesla, and Tesla isn’t talking...

http://dailykanban.com/2015/01/u-s-tesla-sales-numbers-none-true/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

But this may change:

...He (Musk) also said that 2014 Q4 sales of the Model S were the best yet, and that Tesla was going to revise its sales reports to a more standard monthly basis...

http://gas2.org/2015/01/14/elon-musk-comes-detroit-bravado-little-bad-news/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[Zythryn]

I understand the reason they don't.
I do, however, believe that monthly sales split by county, or at least US sales and total production, would do less harm, than good.

 

[edatoakrun]

Yes, Tesla is certainly moving towards greater transparency in financial reporting.

Unless it's not...

Usual Tesla mud-wrestling comments follow the story.

On February 11, electric-car maker Tesla Motors will release its 2014 earnings and hold a conference call for financial analysts to discuss them.

If recent patterns hold, the company won't disclose a number of the important operating metrics that reveal how well it's doing.

In fact, over the last two years, Tesla has quietly stopped providing several pieces of data it routinely reported when it launched the Model S electric luxury sedan.

An article two weeks ago on the investing site SeekingAlpha notes that "Tesla is disclosing less and less information about its operations."

The article, titled "The Incredible Shrinking Tesla Disclosure," also points out that the company recently stopped providing Model S production data, a crucial indicator of its current level of operations.

Tesla is hardly alone in highlighting only information that reflects best on its operations, especially if those operations may not be going according to previously announced plans.

But at some point, investors and analysts may start to ask why the company won't say how many cars it sold in each country, how many orders it's received for its cars--or even how many cars it's built.

Lack of transparency could be a cause for nervousness, among not only those in the finance industry but among Model S owners and Tesla advocates alike.

"Every time Tesla stops disclosing a piece of information," the article concludes, "it happens because disclosing that piece of information could lead to negative interpretations of the data."...

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1096536_tesla-transparency-on-orders-sales-production-fades-do-owners-investors-care" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[thimel]

This is a question for people who have owned both a LEAF and a Tesla model S.
Is there anything other than price that is better for the LEAF than the Tesla?
Another way to phrase the question: is there anything a person upgrading from a LEAF to a Tesla might miss?

 

[pkulak]

Around view monitor and plugging in at the front of the car.

 

[garsh]

The thrill of barely making that daily commute before entering turtle mode?

 

[apvbguy]

This is a question for people who have owned both a LEAF and a Tesla model S.
Is there anything other than price that is better for the LEAF than the Tesla?
Another way to phrase the question: is there anything a person upgrading from a LEAF to a Tesla might miss?

other than the LEAF being a smaller, more nimble car, there is nothing in the LEAF that is better than the Tesla

 

[RegGuheert]

There is significantly less damage done to the environment in the manufacture and operation of a Nissan LEAF than a Tesla Model S. It uses less of virtually every material included in the two vehicles and uses less energy per mile to drive. (Exception: rare earth magnet materials.)

While some may claim that a Tesla Model S will last much longer than a Nissan LEAF due to issues with battery degradation, I will point out that in a comparison of high-mileage applications, the Tesla Model S lost 50% MORE total capacity than the LEAF after having been driven the same number of miles. In other words, even though the higher % cycling of the LEAF battery leads to a higher % cycling loss in capacity, the overall cycling loss of Ah of capacity in the LEAF is lower. OTOH, the LEAF appears to have much higher calendar losses and its lower starting capacity means that those reductions in capacity have a much larger effect on the utility of the vehicle and therefore a shorter battery life.

So, throw in a $6000 battery replacement or two for the LEAF and it *still* uses significantly fewer natural resources than the Tesla Model S.

On top of that, the LEAF is more efficient, so it uses less energy to operate than the Tesla Model S.

The bottom line is that the Nissan LEAF is more environmentally-friendly than the Tesla Model S. Perhaps Tesla will be able to produce an electric vehicle in the future that is closer to the LEAF in this regard.

 

[KJD]

So, throw in a $6000 battery replacement or two for the LEAF and it *still* uses significantly fewer natural resources than the Tesla Model S.
On top of that, the LEAF is more efficient, so it uses less energy to operate than the Tesla Model S.
The bottom line is that the Nissan LEAF is more environmentally-friendly than the Tesla Model S. Perhaps Tesla will be able to produce an electric vehicle in the future that is closer to the LEAF in this regard.

And how do I factor in the natural resources consumed all the times in the last year that my wife and I have driven the Subaru instead of the LEAF because the range was not adequate?

Don't get me wrong I really do like the LEAF but the battery gets smaller every year and that means that it stays in the garage more often than the first year I owned it.

Now if Nissan would build out a real quick charge network like Tesla, I could still use the LEAF in spite of the battery degradation.

The Tesla supercharge network truly is a great marketing tool that Nissan needs to think about.

 

[dgpcolorado]

...On top of that, the LEAF is more efficient, so it uses less energy to operate than the Tesla Model S...

This is the first thing that came to mind for me.

Since my solar output is only slightly more than needed to fuel my LEAF and run my house, switching to a Tesla would likely mean buying electricity or adding another solar panel or two (which would be very expensive for my ground mount setup). Until the Model III comes out I am trying to build a credit balance from my solar output because I expect it to use more electricity than my LEAF.

 

[edatoakrun]

There is significantly less damage done to the environment in the manufacture and operation of a Nissan LEAF than a Tesla Model S.

...The bottom line is that the Nissan LEAF is more environmentally-friendly than the Tesla Model S...

Not only a BEV like the LEAF, but any relatively fuel-efficient ICEV, ICEhybrid, or PHEV, is more "environmentally-friendly" than an S, since "There is significantly less damage done to the environment in the manufacture and operation" of these vehicles, than from a Tesla S.

 

[lorenfb]

This is a question for people who have owned both a LEAF and a Tesla model S.
Is there anything other than price that is better for the LEAF than the Tesla?
Another way to phrase the question: is there anything a person upgrading from a LEAF to a Tesla might miss?

Having to drive a 4600 lb car around and viewing a 17" laptop display!

 

[evnow]

This is a question for people who have owned both a LEAF and a Tesla model S.
Is there anything other than price that is better for the LEAF than the Tesla?
Another way to phrase the question: is there anything a person upgrading from a LEAF to a Tesla might miss?

Size.

This makes it difficult to park in tight places a.k.a. 90% of parking around here. It also make it difficult to park in my own garage - infact once parked, people won't be able to get out of the car and cross it to get to the door.

 

[Zythryn]

Reasons I prefer our Leaf (note, we have only had it two days):

Lower cost
Smaller size
Less expensive tires and repairs (if needed).
360 degree camera view
Color coded backup lines.

Reasons I prefer the Tesla:
Quiter cabin/better seals.
Range
Supercharger network that allows me to offset trips I used to take by plane.
Lovely monitor
Intuitive controls (this may just be a factor of not being used to the Leaf yet)
Navigation and Slacker verbal control.
No need to deal with a dealer, for sales, or repairs.
Cargo room when on vacation.
Performance (in my case this is pretty minor)
Charge Amperage and timer is based on location.
Elegant/simple single charge port for both standard and fast charging.


As for efficiency, yes, the Leaf is more efficient.
However, I can drive the Tesla many places I would need a longer range vehicle, and even planes. So a much higher percentage of my trips are in a very efficient electric car (100% vs 67%)

 

[sparky]

4 year old LEAF SL (#256).
Almost 2 year old Model S85.
I'm very happy with both purchases. Within 6 mos of buying the LEAF, there was no ICE car I wanted. The thought of buying any new car that would send me back to the gas pump cancelled any desire for the car.
The LEAF made me wish for a long range, do-everything BEV. With the Model S, that wish was granted.

Prefer the LEAF for quick jaunts to the hardware store, Trader Joe's parking lot & ground clearance.
Tires replaced at 30k miles. That's it.

Prefer the Tesla for every other type of driving. Most of its miles are long trips.
Prefer the acceleration and the predictable, precise and all out fun way it drives.
Prefer the approach to regen (not blended like LEAF, Toyota, etc).
Prefer the interior, storage, controls, pano roof and overall solid feel of the car.
Prefer Tesla's approach to charging; 95% of drives are within home charger; Superchargers everywhere else.
Love that it's a Calif car built by skilled workers hired during bleak economic times. Made me happy to spend the considerable $.
Love over-the-air updates; some of the features added to my car while I slept:
1) A Nav system with elevation, tied to SOC and providing continuous calc of SOC at destination.
2) The ability to use my iPhone to start the car if I lose my key.
3) Lines overlaid on the backup camera screen
4) Hill hold, iPhone calendar sync, .....

LEAF driving efficiency is 3.3 kWh/mi. Tesla is 3.0. Not that significant to me.
If my LEAF battery gets replaced at 5 years I feel that's a significant overall efficiency hit (assuming my Tesla battery lasts 10 yrs).

 

[garsh]

Prefer the approach to regen (not blended like LEAF, Toyota, etc).

I assume this refers to how the Leaf provides additional regen when the brake pedal is pressed.

I'm of two minds on this. I believe that the Tesla system is simpler and thus less prone to "interesting" issues and failure modes. But it also seems like a wasted opportunity to reclaim even more energy during heavy braking.

 

[Zythryn]

Prefer the approach to regen (not blended like LEAF, Toyota, etc).

I assume this refers to how the Leaf provides additional regen when the brake pedal is pressed.

I'm of two minds on this. I believe that the Tesla system is simpler and thus less prone to "interesting" issues and failure modes. But it also seems like a wasted opportunity to reclaim even more energy during heavy braking.

It really isn't. Think of it this way, Tesla takes all the regen that is safe to put back into the battery and does so.
Leaf takes all the regen safe to put back into the battery and splits it between the throttle and brake.
No lost potential regen.

Of course, each have also made choices about how much regen should slow a car as well.

In real life what this translates to is in the Tesla I rarely need to touch the brake pedal. About 5% of the time I want to slow.
In the Leaf, especially in heavy traffic that is more like 20-30%.

 

[garsh]

When I took a Model S for a test drive, I don't recall the off-throttle regen being any stronger than what the Leaf offers in Eco-mode. Are you saying that it is?

 

[sparky]

When I took a Model S for a test drive, I don't recall the off-throttle regen being any stronger than what the Leaf offers in Eco-mode. Are you saying that it is?

Up to 60 kW of regen for the Model S. About 30kW max for the 2011 LEAF IIRC.
I'd say the LEAF gets closer to the Tesla deceleration in B-mode but as Zythryn points out, you can one-pedal drive the Tesla. The LEAF not so much and I've found I really prefer one-pedal driving.

 

[Zythryn]

When I took a Model S for a test drive, I don't recall the off-throttle regen being any stronger than what the Leaf offers in Eco-mode. Are you saying that it is?

Definately a stronger potential.
However, if Regen was turned to low it would be a weaker regen than in the Leaf.
The regen is also tailored, in both cars, to your speed.

If your test drive is on city streets the difference is less notable.

In the Model S, if I'm doing 55 on a county road and get into the turn lane to turn off the county road, letting off the throttle is typically sufficient to slow me down enough to take the turn.