"The solar energy business is booming" or not

[RegGuheert]

While you are sitting on the fence I'll be patiently waiting for the delivery of my 37 panels between 1:00 and 5:00 today

It's past 5:00PM. Did you get them?

 

[DaveEV]

While you are sitting on the fence I'll be patiently waiting for the delivery of my 37 panels between 1:00 and 5:00 today

It's past 5:00PM. Did you get them?

I suspect he's busy inspecting his new toys.

 

[QueenBee]

While you are sitting on the fence I'll be patiently waiting for the delivery of my 37 panels between 1:00 and 5:00 today

It's past 5:00PM. Did you get them?

I suspect he's busy inspecting his new toys.

Yep, came although the first driver forgot the rails but Conway had a driver on its way already by the time I had got a hold of them.

First day was a bust. I just had the roof reroofed so they had to loosen all the rails/etc. on the existing 21 panels We spent mid afternoon playing with those and thought that we had them decently leveled but after putting on two panels we immediately realized we had not done a good enough of job so we spent the rest of the day meticulously releveling all the panels. My goal for today is to get all the new attachment points in and the rails on while I have helpers around. Lofty goal but this would mean that over the weekend I could get all the wiring, grounding, bolts, and microinverters in place so on Monday it's just a matter of getting the panels on the roof, connecting to the microinverter, and bolting them down.

Here's what 58 panels look like

 

[Herm]

So you can re-roof even with a previous panel installation.. I guess its a full reinstall with new holes drilled on the roof.

 

[smkettner]

I look forward to the day when the panels ARE the roof system.
I realize there is some form of this today but I am talking mainstream when we can avoid the cost of the initial roof and apply that money to installing the panel roof system only.

I am talking about a system where you are reroofing and all major surfaces are replaced with overlapping solar panels and trimmed out with blanks that match. Since you are already spending 10k or 20k on a reroof that money basically goes to the full roof panel system. Add inverter etc and away we go to flattening the peak day energy demand.

Weight is less of an issue on the structure as the dual system is eliminated. New home builders would be having the solar company put on the "roof" instead of traditional roofers. This would go a long way to make it cost effective... eliminating the traditional roof.

Just saying if solar install companies could get into the reroof business it would be a huge leap for their business.

 

[theaveng]

I've seen shingles that are also photovoltaic cells.

 

[GRA]

What country has rapidly expanded PV production in a WWII-sized effort and therefore has more companies to settle out? (do we need a drum roll?) A 5% loss of the world's largest number of manufacturers will only look 'bad' if we focus on the losses and ignore the large number of stronger companies that are still pushing out record numbers of panels...

+1

I'll put it another way. The fact that several solar-related business are failing is NOT evidence that the solar energy business is not booming. Evidence for or against solar energy booming is found in revenue and sales numbers.

The simple fact is that solar energy has reached a tipping point where the perceived value proposition of the products (whether real or not, but I think it is real) is sufficiently higher than the incumbent products that the customer base is now growing very rapidly. Many first movers in this space will now discover that their business model which included high margins and revenues from repairs and replacements of failed products is not attractive when compared with new technologies which offer lower costs and lower maintenance. The technology is advancing quickly.

I can tell you that this trend will not stop anytime soon. The technologies which are coming to market today will drastically slash manufacturing costs, will greatly increase reliability, will improve the feature set and will significantly increase the amount of electricity produced in a given area. The result will be that many (most?) of the companies which we consider to be the leaders today will be forced to either rapidly enhance their products through development or acquisition or they will not survive.

Simply put, solar energy will continue to be a cutthroat business and it will continue to be a minefield for investors to navigate. There are great rewards to be had in this market, but the risks will continue to be high.

Cheap, renewable energy is a must-have for our society and the companies who deliver the technology that provides it will experience continued growth (or failure) for decades to come.

FWIW, this story was in yesterday's S.F. Chronicle Business section:

Renewables suffer investment plunge

Clean energy investment slid 22 percent to its lowest level in four years, as nations pared subsidies for technologies from wind turbines to solar power and financing in China and Brazil stalled. The $40.6 billion invested in the industry in the first three months of this year was lower than any quarter since 2009 and compares with $52 billion in the same period last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The decline indicates the pressure on wind and solar power manufacturers, which are suffering from a plunge in prices due to increased competition and excess production capacity. Photovoltaic modules in March were down 81 percent below the 2008 levels. Investment in renewables, energy efficiency and energy-smart technologies fell 54 percent in the U.S. to $4.5 billion and by 15 percent in China to $8.8 billion. Europe saw a 25 percent drop to $13.4 billion, with investment in Spain alone falling 96 percent compared with last year.

 

[RegGuheert]

FWIW, this story was in yesterday's S.F. Chronicle Business section:

Renewables suffer investment plunge

Clean energy investment slid 22 percent to its lowest level in four years, as nations pared subsidies for technologies from wind turbines to solar power and financing in China and Brazil stalled. The $40.6 billion invested in the industry in the first three months of this year was lower than any quarter since 2009 and compares with $52 billion in the same period last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The decline indicates the pressure on wind and solar power manufacturers, which are suffering from a plunge in prices due to increased competition and excess production capacity. Photovoltaic modules in March were down 81 percent below the 2008 levels. Investment in renewables, energy efficiency and energy-smart technologies fell 54 percent in the U.S. to $4.5 billion and by 15 percent in China to $8.8 billion. Europe saw a 25 percent drop to $13.4 billion, with investment in Spain alone falling 96 percent compared with last year.

Thanks, Guy!

It's not too surprising to see a pullback when government subsidies disappear, as it looks just like a price increase to consumers. No matter, the prices will soon be below where they were with the subsidies, with manufacturers making a profit. But clearly the elimination of subsidies will shake out some of the weaker hands.

 

[DaveEV]

Here's what 58 panels look like

Looks good! What Canadian Solar panels are you using and where'd you get them from? Can you share how much shipping cost? What rails did you use? For my install from a couple years ago I used ET572-180 panels, Enphase M190 inverters and ProSolar racking. In hindsight, I should have opted for 220-230W+ panels as I'd be able to get more power on the roof with fewer inverters which would let me get more PV on the roof without having to upgrade my service panel. But the ET panels were so much cheaper than 230W panels they made more sense then.

Example: Service panel is rated at 100A which limits me to 20A of PV. Each M190 is rated at 0.8A which means I can install a total of 20 inverters without exceeding 20A. But with 180W panels, that gets me 3.24 kW of PV and only room to add 2 more inverters. Even if I used 250W panels, I'd only be at 3.74 kW of PV. If I had installed 230W panels, I could have up to 4.6 kW of PV, or nearly a 1 kW more. Even better would be using the biggest panels that are compatible with the M190, like some 250W panels. That would get me 5kW of PV. The inverters would clip a bit in the sunny months (max output would be under 4 kW AC), but I'd still get a lot more output in the non-summer months and I'm sure the utility wouldn't mind seeing a nice flat production in the middle of the day.

 

[QueenBee]

So you can re-roof even with a previous panel installation.. I guess its a full reinstall with new holes drilled on the roof.

It was not fun but figured I'd bite the bullet before installing more panels. Roof had life but didn't want to ever think about removing 57 panels so replaced it with a "lifetime" roof. We took the panels off and then loosened the rails and attachment points so old shingles could be pulled out and new shingles slide in around it. Don't recommend it all

 

[QueenBee]

Looks good! What Canadian Solar panels are you using and where'd you get them from? Can you share how much shipping cost? What rails did you use?

Originally had CS6P-230s and then got CS6P-250s this time. The all black panels are CS6M-250s for the front of the house visible from the street. I've got an account with Soligent. Their shipping is crazy. They only charged $260 for shipping 2,000 lbs on 2 pallets and a third for a pack of 250 lbs worth of 18' rails from CA to WA.

 

[Dgaetano]

US based First Solar was the second largest solar module manufacturer in 2012.

From Reuters, 4/9/2013: First Solar soars 45 percent on outlook, acquisition

"(Reuters) - First Solar shares logged their biggest ever one-day jump on Tuesday after the company said revenue and earnings for the next three years would be well above most Wall Street estimates and announced that it would acquire a new solar technology."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/09/us-firstsolar-idUSBRE9380QM20130409" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So that's a check in the "booming" column.

 

[thankyouOB]

NYT has a story tomorrow about Fiskar folding and the damage it has done to EVs and implications for government subsidies for alternative energy.

 

[walterbays]

http://www.businessweek.com/article...k-point-of-our-solar-panel-investment-in-half

So what does this [buying a Volt] do to our solar panel payback? It cuts it nearly in half to around six years. How so? Three-quarters of our driving is powered by electricity. Even with the addition of the Volt, which we charge every night, we still don’t have an electric bill.

 

[QueenBee]

http://www.businessweek.com/article...k-point-of-our-solar-panel-investment-in-half

So what does this [buying a Volt] do to our solar panel payback? It cuts it nearly in half to around six years. How so? Three-quarters of our driving is powered by electricity. Even with the addition of the Volt, which we charge every night, we still don’t have an electric bill.

Ugh, it's a full time job fighting the fallacy that installing PV saves you gas.

And we’ve cut down on our gasoline expenditures as a direct result of both the car and the solar panel system, saving around $200 per month that we used to spend.

That quote makes me cringe so much. In case it's not obvious installing solar pv has no impact and is NOT causing the direct result of how much someone spends on gasoline. It's 100% wrong to say that buying their Volt caused the solar payback to go down to six years.

Obviously I'm sold on the benefits of solar and EVs but outside of tiered rates, TOU, and increasing your usage so that you don't go negative on your net meter annually the combination of solar PV and EVs do not have an impact on the cost to operate or the ROI of either on their own.

 

[planet4ever]

Obviously I'm sold on the benefits of solar and EVs but outside of tiered rates, TOU, and increasing your usage so that you don't go negative on your net meter annually the combination of solar PV and EVs do not have an impact on the cost to operate or the ROI of either on their own.

But many people with PV + EV do have at least one of those factors at play. Certainly in the quoted case they said that "we still don’t have an electric bill," which means they were way negative before on their net meter. I don't have that factor, but I do have tiered rates, like virtually everyone in California, together with TOU, also like most people with any sense in California who have PV + EV.

Ray

 

[cwerdna]

US based First Solar was the second largest solar module manufacturer in 2012.

From Reuters, 4/9/2013: First Solar soars 45 percent on outlook, acquisition

"(Reuters) - First Solar shares logged their biggest ever one-day jump on Tuesday after the company said revenue and earnings for the next three years would be well above most Wall Street estimates and announced that it would acquire a new solar technology."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/09/us-firstsolar-idUSBRE9380QM20130409" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So that's a check in the "booming" column.

So, they're at $50.45/share. At their peak in 08, they were at over $310/share.

 

[Smidge204]

Came across this this morning:

Based on the falling costs of solar and rising electric prices, Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E), one of the largest utilities in the country that serves northern California, may not be able to compete with residential solar soon. That’s according to a recent piece at think tank, The Energy Collective by energy expert Douglas Short, President of Exas Consulting, LLC and a former Vice President at Constellation Energy.

=Smidge=

 

[QueenBee]

Obviously I'm sold on the benefits of solar and EVs but outside of tiered rates, TOU, and increasing your usage so that you don't go negative on your net meter annually the combination of solar PV and EVs do not have an impact on the cost to operate or the ROI of either on their own.

But many people with PV + EV do have at least one of those factors at play. Certainly in the quoted case they said that "we still don’t have an electric bill," which means they were way negative before on their net meter. I don't have that factor, but I do have tiered rates, like virtually everyone in California, together with TOU, also like most people with any sense in California who have PV + EV.

Ray

Agreed but the issue is TOU and tiered rates are dang complicated and it's not simple to show the direct benefit caused by the combination, and it's so varied by your specific utilities price structure and your usage. Certainly is possible to figure out but anyone I've seen who is touting the benefits of combining both PV and EV are not doing this calculation.

As for the author of that article looks like they actually get paid for their annual excess PV generation at the "price-to-compare" which appears to be about $0.06 per kwh and as of 2011 the average total cost in PA was $.132 per kwh so by combining an EV with their PV system they are saving that difference which is far from the hundreds of dollars a month claimed by not buying gas.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/10/27/141766341/the-price-of-electricity-in-your-state" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

hat is the "price to compare"?
The price to compare (PTC) is the price per kilowatt hour (kWh) your electric distribution company will charge. As you shop for electricity, ask competitive suppliers to provide you with a PTC so that you can make an apples-to-apples comparison on price for the generation portion of your bill. Be sure to ask how long the price is effective and verify if taxes or other fees are included in the PTC.

 

[Deleted member 3147]

Came across this this morning:

Based on the falling costs of solar and rising electric prices, Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E), one of the largest utilities in the country that serves northern California, may not be able to compete with residential solar soon. That’s according to a recent piece at think tank, The Energy Collective by energy expert Douglas Short, President of Exas Consulting, LLC and a former Vice President at Constellation Energy.

=Smidge=

As a PG&E rate payer who suffers through among the highest rates in the country, my heart *bleeds* for them!