"The solar energy business is booming" or not

[QueenBee]

A bump in the road for solar is an increasingly high rate of defective panels:
NY Times: "Solar Industry Anxious Over Defective Panels"
It appears that cost-cutting by Chinese manufacturers is leading to substandard materials and that these defective components are used by panel makers in the US and other countries. But the problems may not become apparent for several years after installation.

That stinks. They generally come with great warranties, but who knows how good some of these companies are about honoring them.

How does one know if the manufacturers warranty is backed by an insurance company? I thought that's what they all did so that if they went out of business the warranty would still be valid but I can't find any info with regards to that and CSI.

“We need to start naming names,” -- Yes, this BS about not naming who is cutting corners is lame. All it would take is for one company's name to get out as having poor panels and they'd be gone with a warning to everyone else that if they cut corners their future is bleak.

I don't know what the early failure rates of panels/microinverters is but I'm a bit surprised that I've not yet any issues considering one in 58 panels is 1.7%.

 

[GRA]

A bump in the road for solar is an increasingly high rate of defective panels:
NY Times: "Solar Industry Anxious Over Defective Panels"
It appears that cost-cutting by Chinese manufacturers is leading to substandard materials and that these defective components are used by panel makers in the US and other countries. But the problems may not become apparent for several years after installation.

That stinks. They generally come with great warranties, but who knows how good some of these companies are about honoring them.

Figured it was just a matter of time before this would start happening, as the excessive production capacity makes companies increasingly desperate for business. Early panels had failures because people didn't know any better, but as the industry matured in the early '90s warranties increased from 5 years up to typically 10-12, as manufacturing was still relatively small scale and quality control high, and then to 20-25 years this decade. But then the influx of Chinese panels began, and cost-cutting was bound to start. Definitely, it's time to start naming names.

Here's some reports on module failure modes:

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/pdfs/pvmrw2011_28_csi_sample.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.nrel.gov/ce/ipvmqa_task_force/pdfs/10-ipvmqaf_degraaff_sunpower.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

We didn't have this kind of data when I was selling modules twenty years ago, so we had to make much more generic statements about lifetimes.

 

[cwerdna]

Siemens Exits Solar Industry, Suffers $1 Billion In Losses:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/williampentland/2013/06/20/siemens-exits-solar-industry-suffers-1-billion-in-losses/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[ERG4ALL]

What many people fail to realize is the "payback" for solar PV is still attractive from an opportunity cost basis. Forget all the subsidies. If you have some money and have a choice of a no-risk investment, you can put it in a bank with FDIC insurance, or you can purchase solar panels for your home at $4.00/watt. Modern panels carry warrantees of 20 years or more. And, you would be lucky to get a CD paying 2% interest.

In our case we have 34 Sharp 235W panels with Enphase inverters. They were installed over three years ago and have not had one bit of trouble with any of them. These generate on average 15.8 mWh per year. The system's peak generation is 6,754W (the system has been designed to flat-line between 10:45AM to 2:00PM on sunny days). Assuming the ramp up and ramp down are the same slope (they appear to be, judge for yourself https://enlighten.enphaseenergy.com/public/systems/xpWw4801) we then have 61% of the energy generated during peak TOU rates and 39% on off-peak. The utility in Phoenix charges $.26 for peak and $.06 for off-peak.

This equates to $2,506 per year for on-peak and $370 per year for off-peak for a total of $2,876. Dividing that by the rating of the system (8,000W without flat lining, i.e. total maximum panel output) yields about $0.36 per watt per year. Multiply that by an expected life of 20 years and you get $7.19 per watt. Currently, turn-key installations can be had for $4.00 per watt. In comparing that with the bank investment on an annual basis, you return would be 9% ($0.36/$4.00). Also, it is highly unlikely that the utility's rates will ever go down and probably will increase which makes the return even greater.

Of course, living in AZ helps so anyone in other climates will have to check the weather service to see the percentage of sunny days. Where we have our system, we average 275 sunny days per year.

One last thought is that some will point out that the average length of ownership of a house I read somewhere is like seven years. If you're very transient, maybe solar would not pay you back before you move. However, some of that investment may be gained back in the selling price of the house once the net present value of that opportunity stream of payments is pointed out to any prospective buyer.

So I don't know if the solar (i.e. PV) is booming or not, but we are very satisfied with our purchase and it would make sense today even without subsidies.

 

[QueenBee]

What many people fail to realize is the "payback" for solar PV is still attractive from an opportunity cost basis. Forget all the subsidies. If you have some money and have a choice of a no-risk investment, you can put it in a bank with FDIC insurance, or you can purchase solar panels for your home at $4.00/watt. Modern panels carry warrantees of 20 years or more. And, you would be lucky to get a CD paying 2% interest.

In our case we have 34 Sharp 235W panels with Enphase inverters. They were installed over three years ago and have not had one bit of trouble with any of them. These generate on average 15.8 mWh per year. The system's peak generation is 6,754W (the system has been designed to flat-line between 10:45AM to 2:00PM on sunny days). Assuming the ramp up and ramp down are the same slope (they appear to be, judge for yourself https://enlighten.enphaseenergy.com/public/systems/xpWw4801) we then have 61% of the energy generated during peak TOU rates and 39% on off-peak. The utility in Phoenix charges $.26 for peak and $.06 for off-peak.

This equates to $2,506 per year for on-peak and $370 per year for off-peak for a total of $2,876. Dividing that by the rating of the system (8,000W without flat lining, i.e. total maximum panel output) yields about $0.36 per watt per year. Multiply that by an expected life of 20 years and you get $7.19 per watt. Currently, turn-key installations can be had for $4.00 per watt. In comparing that with the bank investment on an annual basis, you return would be 9% ($0.36/$4.00). Also, it is highly unlikely that the utility's rates will ever go down and probably will increase which makes the return even greater.

Of course, living in AZ helps so anyone in other climates will have to check the weather service to see the percentage of sunny days. Where we have our system, we average 275 sunny days per year.

One last thought is that some will point out that the average length of ownership of a house I read somewhere is like seven years. If you're very transient, maybe solar would not pay you back before you move. However, some of that investment may be gained back in the selling price of the house once the net present value of that opportunity stream of payments is pointed out to any prospective buyer.

So I don't know if the solar (i.e. PV) is booming or not, but we are very satisfied with our purchase and it would make sense today even without subsidies.

You and your sunny days without trees and crazy TOU rates! I've got a 1.75 times larger system (although only 40% of it is facing south) but I'm only expecting 75% of the generation you are getting.

The biggest risk in my mind of installing a solar system with or without a subsidies is if you'll own the house long enough to break even + whatever rate of return you need to make it a worthwhile investment but as you mention if you make it close enough to this time period hopefully the home will be more valuable.

How many years did you figure it would take to break even? With the conditions you've got it would be insane not to install solar!

 

[dgpcolorado]

NY Times article: "On Rooftops, a Rival for Utilities". Describes push back from some utilities wrt net metering, particularly in California since it has generous net metering subsidies (having to do with time of day values for the electricity produced, as opposed to wholesale). Discusses the issue of paying for utility infrastructure.

This issue has come up with my rural electricity co-op, which is very friendly to renewable energy, in contrast to most co-ops in my area. Is it fair to have non-renewable customers subsidize those of us with net metering accounts? The co-op has been raising the service charge (paid by all customers, for the purpose of paying for utility infrastructure). I don't have a problem with that because it seems fair.

 

[jerdy]

http://www.businessweek.com/article...k-point-of-our-solar-panel-investment-in-half

So what does this [buying a Volt] do to our solar panel payback? It cuts it nearly in half to around six years. How so? Three-quarters of our driving is powered by electricity. Even with the addition of the Volt, which we charge every night, we still don’t have an electric bill.

Ugh, it's a full time job fighting the fallacy that installing PV saves you gas.

And we’ve cut down on our gasoline expenditures as a direct result of both the car and the solar panel system, saving around $200 per month that we used to spend.

That quote makes me cringe so much. In case it's not obvious installing solar pv has no impact and is NOT causing the direct result of how much someone spends on gasoline. It's 100% wrong to say that buying their Volt caused the solar payback to go down to six years.

Obviously I'm sold on the benefits of solar and EVs but outside of tiered rates, TOU, and increasing your usage so that you don't go negative on your net meter annually the combination of solar PV and EVs do not have an impact on the cost to operate or the ROI of either on their own.

You pay $3.50 a gallon
40 miles a day
20 miles to the gallon average.
2 gallons a day = $7.00
6*365 = $2,555 a year in fuel cost.

If you had an electric car and took that $2,555 and invested it in solar panels
Getting 4 miles/kwh You would need to produce 10kwh a day to supply your fuel.
10kw / 5 number of solar hours per day your area gets per day = 2
2 / .75 adjust for real world inefficiencies = 2.6kw is the system size you would need.
$3.71 dollars a watt installed is what I just paid for my system. = $9,646
$9,646 / $2,555 = 3.77 years to recoup your cost of going solar/electric
After 4 years your solar costs are recouped and your fuel is free.


Fom PV Watts

Station Identification
City: Fort Worth
State: Texas
Latitude: 32.83° N
Longitude: 97.05° W
Elevation: 164 m
PV System Specifications
DC Rating: 2.6 kW
DC to AC Derate Factor: 0.770
AC Rating: 2.0 kW
Array Type: Fixed Tilt
Array Tilt: 32.8°
Array Azimuth: 180.0°
Energy Specifications
Cost of Electricity: 11.0 ¢/kWh

Results

Month Solar Radiation
(kWh/m 2/day) AC Energy
(kWh) Energy Value
($)
1 4.32 260 28.60
2 4.77 259 28.49
3 5.50 321 35.31
4 5.98 332 36.52
5 6.02 340 37.40
6 6.26 331 36.41
7 6.39 343 37.73
8 6.31 339 37.29
9 5.83 307 33.77
10 5.56 315 34.65
11 4.43 255 28.05
12 4.10 247 27.17


Year 5.46 3649 401.39

 

[QueenBee]

$9,646 / $2,555 = 3.77 years to recoup your cost of going solar/electric
After 4 years your solar costs are recouped and your fuel is free.

Nope sorry that logic just is not correct. The $2,555 has nothing to do with installing grid tie solar. You will save that $2,555 per year because you bought an electric car and you will save that much if you have solar or you don't have solar.

The break even point on solar has nothing to do with how much money you are saving by driving an electric car.

The correct equation you should have used is $9,646*.7/3649/.11. Using the numbers you presented assuming the only rebates available for installing solar is the 30% federal credit. So using your numbers the break even point of installing solar is more than 16 years, not including the opportunity cost of the money and the cost of electricity going up.

As I said I'm in full support of electric cars and solar considering I have a LEAF and 100% of of my power usage is covered by a 14kw array but please reconsider your logic with regards to ROI and break even calculations.