It's going to be close for me. I'm going to be at 60k in the summer of the 4th year of ownership. And that's where I had predicted I'd be eligible based on time alone (first bar loss this summer; second next summer; third the summer of the 4th year). Unless I'm underestimating how quickly bar loss will happen from now on, I may have to pull some shenanigans of my own to make sure it happens or I'll end up loosing out on the warranty by just a couple of months, which would totally suck.