Western USA drought worst in modern era

[LTLFTcomposite]

Funny I recall learning that economics is how scarce resources are allocated to unlimited wants. This is the first I've heard of it involving unlimited anything.

Then again that was before the days of $70k minimum wage paid in dogecoins, so I'm no doubt behind in the enlightenment department.

 

[AndyH]

Funny I recall learning that economics is how scarce resources are allocated to unlimited wants. This is the first I've heard of it involving unlimited anything.

Then again that was before the days of $70k minimum wage paid in dogecoins, so I'm no doubt behind in the enlightenment department.

I remember learning that Columbus was courageous for daring to attempt to sail to India on a flat Earth, and that 'Indians' in the Americas were tiny roving warrior bands that lived from the environment but didn't drastically change it. No worries - stuff happens.

Q: How does it differ from environmental economics?
Environmental economics is a subdiscipline of economics, so it's applying standard economic thinking to the environment. Mainstream economics, I think, is focused largely on markets and while it recognizes that there are externalities, they are external—they're out there. Ecological economics tries to study everything outside the market as well as everything inside the market and bring the two together.

Conventional economics doesn't really recognize the importance of scale—the fact that we live on a finite planet, or that the economy, as a subsystem, cannot grow indefinitely into this larger, containing system. There are some biophysical limits there. The mainstream view doesn’t recognize those limits or thinks that technology can solve any resource constraint problems. It’s not that we can't continue to improve the human situation. But we have to recognize that the environment creates certain limits and constraints on that, and we can define a safe operating space within which we can do the best we can.

ROBERT COSTANZA
Gund Professor of Ecological Economics, and Director of the Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont

http://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/what-ecological-economics

Edit... This hits to the core.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Se55CCdfaOA[/youtube]

Another edit... As does this. Lester Brown on the two cultures - one represented by the natural sciences and one represented by economics.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DO2xl39nBAA[/youtube]

 

[AndyH]

http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/researc...eadlines-but-other-states-face-water-woes-too

With all the attention focused on California’s water woes, an observer might conclude that the Golden State’s drought is the exception. It isn’t. Forty states expect to see water shortages in at least some areas in the next decade, according to a government watchdog agency.

In a 2013 survey by the Government Accountability Office (GAO), state water managers from around the country said they expect freshwater shortages to continue into the next decade, even under what they described as “average” conditions. If those conditions change—whether because of rapid population growth, unusually low snowfall or rainfall, or accelerated economic growth—the situation could worsen.

 

[edatoakrun]

I expect it may be tricky to manage reservoir levels to retain generation capacity during demand peaks in a late-summer 2015 heat wave:

California, expecting the lowest hydroelectric generation in a decade, will lean on solar and natural gas-fired power to get through spring and summer months when demand typically peaks.

Hydropower capacity will probably drop to the “extreme” low of 4,628 megawatts during this summer’s peak season, down 40 percent from 2014 levels, the state grid manager California Independent System Operator Inc. said on Tuesday. The ISO is scheduled to release its final summer forecasts within the next couple of weeks...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-15/california-turning-to-solar-amid-decade-low-hydropower" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

CA reservoir capacity has already fallen from ~66% to 62%, in just the last few weeks:

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/reservoirs/RES" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[AndyH]

Yeah Ed. This has come up in other conversations as well and has been highlighted as a concern by the three primary 80%+ renewable energy plans (TIR, Reinventing Fire, Solutions Project). Bottom line: Hydro was a reliable resource on the old Earth because we had a stable system, enough data, and could somewhat reliably extrapolate into the future. Hydro's not a reliable resource on Eaarth as we don't have a stable system or enough data.

But hey - if we figure this out, we'll get an additional 3 difficulty points from the Russian judge. :lol:

 

[edatoakrun]

Drought Triggers Need for Installation of Emergency Salinity Barrier on Delta Channel

Temporary Barrier Would Deter Saltwater and Protect Delta Water Quality

NEWS FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
April 15, 2015

SACRAMENTO -- Faced with potentially insufficient water supplies to repel salinity in the Sacramento- San Joaquin Delta, the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), in consultation with federal and state water and wildlife agencies, is moving to install an emergency, temporary rock barrier across a Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta channel.

DWR seeks to install a single emergency salinity barrier across West False River in May, to be removed six months later in November. State and federal water and wildlife officials, working as a Real-Time Drought Operations Management Team, have determined that the barrier would help deter the tidal push of saltwater from San Francisco Bay into the central Delta...

Keeping saltwater from the central Delta is a priority, as a large portion of the state’s freshwater supplies travel through this part of the Delta. The barrier would help prevent saltwater contamination of water supplies used by people who live in the Delta; Contra Costa, Alameda, and Santa Clara counties; and the 25 million people who rely on the Delta-based federal and state water projects for at least some of their supplies.

Typically when saltwater threatens to encroach deeper into the Delta, water project operators try to repel it either by slowing the pumping of water from the Delta or increasing the amount of water flowing into the Delta from upstream reservoirs.

In this fourth year of drought, Delta pumping by the state and federal water projects is already negligible. It takes three to five days for fresh water released from Lake Oroville or Shasta Lake to reach the Delta. An emergency barrier would provide an additional tool to help limit salinity intrusion prior to arrival of fresh water from upstream reservoirs...

http://ca.gov/drought/topstory/top-story-31.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This temporary emergency measure is another intended to keep the current water diversion system on life-support until California can build a replacement.

There is widespread agreement that the current system of using existing natural and artificial Delta channels to transfer water from north-to-south is doomed, with only the future changes in precipitation patterns, and the rates of sea level rise and ground level subsistence, variables in accurately predicting the eventual time-of-death.

The current replacement plan was significantly altered last week, when it was reported that the major environmental benefits claimed by proponents could not be substantiated:

Delta tunnels: Major changes to environmental restoration could endanger Brown's water plan

Gov. Jerry Brown has billed his $25 billion plan to build two massive tunnels under the Delta as a way to not just make it easier to move water from north to south, but also increase the reliability of water supplies and bring back salmon and other endangered species.

But now the Brown administration is proposing a major and politically risky change: dropping a 50-year guarantee to restore the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta's environment. A centerpiece of the project, the environmental plan included $8 billion to preserve 100,000 acres of wetlands and dozens of other restoration efforts.

The dramatic course correction, whose details have not yet been made public, comes after biologists at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and other federal agencies told the state they won't issue permits for the environmental plan. The reasons, the biologists say, is that the state cannot prove it will restore salmon, smelt, sturgeon and other wildlife struggling for survival in the Delta.

Losing the guarantee of 50 years of environmental restoration would create a substantial political problem for one of Brown's signature projects.

First, it would be easier for environmentalists and other opponents to describe the twin-tunnels plan as little more than a water grab by Southern California...

http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_27895910/delta-tunnels-major-changes-environmental-restoration-could-endanger" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Which is an accurate description, of course.

If you want a quick read on the big picture, see the story below:

The Drought Isn’t California’s Only Water Problem

Whether you live in or out of California, you are probably looking for something, anything, just one dang thing that will help you understand this impossibly complicated drought.

You’re not going to find it. No Central Valley almond, Los Angeles swimming pool, Palm Springs golf course, Fresno lawn, Nestle water bottle, Napa wine, Humboldt pot farm, or Merced River salmon is going to satisfy your craving for a culprit. Instead, allow me to divert your attention to the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, a massive estuary to the east of the San Francisco Bay that is the heart of a story that will at least explain why you’ll never get a satisfying explanation.

Actually, it’s not about the Delta, exactly; the real story is 200 feet below it, where the governor of the Golden State wants to dig huge tunnels that will make it easier for southern California to get northern California’s water.

Officially known as Conservation Measure 1 of the Bay Delta Conservation Plan—but commonly known as the Delta Tunnels—the idea is to dig two 35-mile tunnels, each 40 feet in diameter and capable of pumping 67,000 gallons of water per second from the Sacramento River to the California Aqueduct. The tunnels are supposed to fix the plumbing that delivers water to two-thirds of the state: every coastal city from San Francisco to San Diego, and millions of farms along the way. The plan is controversial, and has been in talks for a decade. If approved, the tunnels would take about ten years and an estimated $25 billion dollars to build...

http://www.wired.com/2015/04/drought-isnt-californias-water-problem/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[AndyH]

Continued over-pumping of ground water guarantees that seawater will seep in to back-fill any aquifers if there's any underground access at all.

http://phys.org/news/2014-12-geophysicist-saltwater-threat-california-aquifers.html


The CA media appears to be just as blind as in the rest of the nation. The "real story" isn't the tunnels - it's climate change...which is really about water, first and foremost...

 

[mbender]

Delta tunnels: Major changes to environmental restoration could endanger Brown's water plan

[...]

http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_27895910/delta-tunnels-major-changes-environmental-restoration-could-endanger" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Which is an accurate description, of course.

The plan is controversial, and has been in talks for a decade. If approved, the tunnels would take about ten years and an estimated $25 billion dollars to build...

http://www.wired.com/2015/04/drought-isnt-californias-water-problem/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Thanks for the heads-up on this, edatoakrun. Although not "global", the tunnels would be an environmental and fiscal disaster nonetheless, and are especially opposed around here. I hope this is the beginning of the end to Mr. Brown's fancies. I don't know why he is so for them in the first place, given his liberal and environmental leanings. It might have to do with the powerful Ag lobby, or (worse) wanting a water-related legacy of his own, to match (or undo?) his papa's... :-\

FYI, one of the more focused groups dedicated to fighting the tunnels is Restore the Delta (.org).

 

[AndyH]

LOS ANGELES (AP) — An Orange County appeals court ruled Monday that San Juan Capistrano's tiered water rates are unconstitutional, potentially dealing a blow to agencies statewide that have used the pricing structure to encourage water conservation.

The 3-0 ruling by the 4th District Court of Appeal upholds a Superior Court judge's decision that found that charging bigger water users incrementally higher rates violates a voter-approved law that prohibits government agencies from charging more than the cost of a service.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/04/20/california-drought-water-_n_7105202.html

 

[edatoakrun]

A friend of mine blogs for the Redding RS, and this post summarizes a recent SF Chron (paywall) story:

According to some smart guys at Stanford who have been studying California’s drought for the last four years, this could be the “new normal.”

One of those guys is Noah Diffenbaugh, who said, “California is in a new climate. And that’s a climate where droughts have already become much more likely, and will continue to be so in the coming years.”...

Diffenbaugh said, “No matter how you look at it, global warming is occurring, and this is increasing the risk of extreme events. We have to deal with the reality that we are in a new climate.”...

“’We’re not saying California will become a desert,’ he said. ‘We just say the risk of drought in future years is increasing.

“’And though I don’t study economics or policy, I do know this: We are in a different climate than we were when our current infrastructure for water was built. And decisions on how to handle our water need to be made on the current climate, not the old climate.’”...

http://dcraig.blogs.redding.com/2015/04/californias-drought-could-be-permanent/?_ga=1.41660133.678563319.1429275478" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

A SJ Mercury News editorial came out against T-T, but (IMO) fails to produce a credible alternative, and so refuses to face the present and future reality:

Jerry Brown needs new water strategy -- no tunnels

California needs Gov. Jerry Brown's leadership to deal with the worst drought in state history.

The state has to reset its water priorities to match both current and worst-case long-term needs. But Brown can't make that happen as long as he clings to his $25 billion, twin-tunnel proposal to carry Delta water south...

http://www.mercurynews.com/opinion/ci_27936281/mercury-news-editorial" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And speaking of the inability to face reality, it was perhaps inevitable that California would eventually call on the expertise of one of its great fictional leaders...

Actor William Shatner Proposes Water Pipeline From Northwest To Save California

http://ijpr.org/post/actor-william-shatner-proposes-water-pipeline-northwest-save-california" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Actually, I do expect some sort of PNW water import proposal to come into play, as soon as a drought as severe as (or worse than) the present one persists for five or ten years.

Opposition from California's neighbors to the north may fade, when the proposition is re-stated as:

Look, do you want to send millions of acre feet of water to Southern California, or do you want millions of Southern Californians to move up to Washington and Oregon?

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

There was a blurb on the news this morning about "water shaming" that mentioned how offenders in LA can be subject to "up to" a $500 fine. 7300 warning letters have gone out, but only 10 fines assessed... and who knows if any of those were collected, or if it's like red light cameras where people can raise a litany of bullshit defenses and get out of it.

http://www.today.com/news/drought-shaming-california-water-vigilantes-snitch-their-neigbors-t15896" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It was the same thing here in FL a few years back when things started to get tight, nobody took it seriously. At least here water shortages are short-lived; it will be interesting to see what happens out west if this keeps up and the situation becomes critical.

 

[GRA]

It's amazing how things repeat themselves. Moving water from the PNW? Suggested in '76-'77. Moving water around the delta? Peripheral Canal in '76-'77, pushed by Jerry Brown, and rejected by voters; now the Peripheral Tunnel. (I do think he's trying to build on his father's legacy, although why he should feel the need, I don't know). Water shaming? Ditto, the newspapers and especially the TV stations will be all over that, judging by past experience. In about 2 or 3 months I expect news reports about crazy 'water ladies' who leave their hoses running 24/7 so that their lawns turn into swamps, their neighbors foundations are undermined, and there's a constant flow of water running into the sewers, finally having to be certified mentally incompetent by a court and flow restrictors installed, to go along with the usual stories about people parking their cars on their lawns to wash them, closures of do-it-yourself car washes (to be sure, since the last time around, many car washes have installed recycling systems and/or solar water heaters), and similar. It's all so familiar.

 

[WetEV]

It's starting to look at lot more like El Nino.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And again, speculation that this will end California's drought.

http://blogs.mprnews.org/updraft/2015/04/can-long-anticipated-super-el-nino-save-california/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[Nubo]

...along with the usual stories about people parking their cars on their lawns to wash them...

Nothing wrong with that, in and of itself is there? In fact I plan to do this soon as my car is filthy. I wash it maybe 4 times a year and each wash probably takes less water than a shower; but no sense letting it run to the sewer. I don't water the front yard at all so the occasional few gallons does go a long way towards keeping the rather hardy Gazanias alive. I replaced the grass with them several years ago.

 

[edatoakrun]

The situation is bad:

California Rainy Season Ending; January-April rain in San Francisco Lowest on Record

By: Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on April 30, 2015

The fourth consecutive severely dry California rainy season is drawing to a close. Rain-bearing low pressure systems typically stop bringing heavy rains to the state by mid-April, as the jet stream shifts to the north in its usual springtime migration. With almost no rain in the forecast for the next seven days, and the 16-day GFS model forecast showing mostly light rains affecting the northern portion of the state 8 - 16 days from now, California has likely seen over 95% of the precipitation that it’s going to get this anemic rainy season. What little precipitation did fall this winter came mainly in the form of rain, thanks to record-warm ocean temperatures off of the coast. This resulted in snow falling only at very high elevations, keeping the critical Sierra snowpack--which provides one-third of the state's water--at record low levels. According to the California Department of Water Resources, snow depths in the Sierras are the lowest on record for this time of year, only 2% of average, and the Southern Sierras have no snow at all--nearly three months earlier than usual. California's eight largest reservoirs are 30% - 83% below their historical average, and the portion of the state covered by the highest level of drought--"Exceptional"--was at 47% this week. The area covered by "Exceptional" drought peaked at a record 58% during the summer of 2014, and this mark may well fall during the summer of 2015...

And could get even worse, in the near term:

The long-range forecast: hot, dry, and more intense drought
The latest 3-month outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, private forecasting firm WSI, and Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society all call for above-average chances of hotter than usual weather in California though July, and the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for drought to persist or intensify over California. This should be no surprise, given that ocean temperatures along the coast of California are at record or near-record levels for this time of year, and will be slow to change. These record warm ocean temperatures will drive hotter weather and more intense drought this summer than otherwise would occur, and this summer's fire season will likely be severe...

Next year?

Next winter, California has a decent chance of getting a better rainy season, if the current El Niño event manages to intensify into a strong one (an event predicted by several of our better El Niño models.) Still, the Sierras need 1.7 - 2.9 times more precipitation than a usual rainy season brings to bust the drought; some portions of the state need even more than that...

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2969" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[Weatherman]

Strange quote:

"These record warm ocean temperatures will drive hotter weather and more intense drought this summer than otherwise would occur..."

I guess whoever wrote this doesn't realize that nearly all of California gets about zero rainfall during the dry season. Can't get much more "intense" than zero, which is normal.


If anything, warmer water temperatures would enhance the summer monsoon by providing higher humidity and more moisture to the air. Mountain and desert areas of California will likely get more rainfall this summer than they would in a normal year. More rain and more cloud cover would mean less hot daytime highs, although nighttime lows would be warmer with the higher humidity.

Southern California coastal and coastal valley areas may even get in on the act. It will, probably, be a warm and humid summer for Los Angeles, down to San Diego. Might even get a dissipating tropical storm or two funneled into the area in September and October.

 

[WetEV]

If anything, warmer water temperatures would enhance the summer monsoon by providing higher humidity and more moisture to the air. Mountain and desert areas of California will likely get more rainfall this summer than they would in a normal year. More rain and more cloud cover would mean less hot daytime highs, although nighttime lows would be warmer with the higher humidity.

It might be interesting to check your predictions at the end of summer... Want to provide a short list of locations to check?

 

[edatoakrun]

="Weatherman" Strange quote:

"These record warm ocean temperatures will drive hotter weather and more intense drought this summer than otherwise would occur..."

I guess whoever wrote this doesn't realize that nearly all of California gets about zero rainfall during the dry season. Can't get much more "intense" than zero, which is normal.

Too hard for you to click the link?

About Jeff Masters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

What part of relationship of higher temperatures to drought do you not understand?

="Weatherman" ...If anything, warmer water temperatures would enhance the summer monsoon by providing higher humidity and more moisture to the air...

The Summer monsoon occurs when the wind direction shifts from the predominant direction (from the west) in a seasonal reversal, transporting moisture from the warm waters of the gulfs of California and Mexico, so higher water temperatures off California's west coast have little direct effect on precipitation during the monsoon:

...Pulses of low level moisture are transported primarily from the Gulf of California and eastern Pacific. The Gulf of California, a narrow body of water surrounded by mountains, is particularly important for low-level moisture transport into Arizona and Sonora. Upper level moisture is also transported into the region, mainly from the Gulf of Mexico by easterly winds aloft...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Monsoon" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Why are there thunderstorms in California in July?

...the seasonal reversal of large-scale wind patterns associated with the North American Monsoon. This reversal occurs every summer, and is typically associated with occasional convective activity (often in the form of thunderstorms) over mountain and interior regions of the Southwest. Occasionally, this pattern can expand northward and westward to include California in the region of deep southeasterly flow around the characteristic mid-atmospheric high pressure area centered near the Four Corners region...

http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/1631" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The Monsoon has seemed to be more active and reach farther north into California in recent years, as California's climate has changed, and while it did start several very large forest fires As far North as Shasta County last Summer, it had little effect in relieving the drought.

Major lightning outbreak/fire weather event likely in California, part of very active summer monsoon in 2014

http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/tag/california-monsoon" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I support everyone's right to chose their own name on MNL, but if you post as "Weatherman", you might want to learn a little bit more about the weather...

 

[Weatherman]

I support everyone's right to chose their own name on MNL, but if you post as "Weatherman", you might want to learn a little bit more about the weather...

I know quite a bit about weather, having a Master of Science degree in the subject and fifteen years of professional weather forecasting experience. I'm, also, a California native, and lived in the state for the first twenty-one years of my life.


There's a misunderstanding that hot=dry. That's not the case, as anyone living in a tropical climate can attest to.

Also, the source of moisture for the southwest summer monsoon is the Gulf of California, but also the broad area of tropical Pacific off the Mexican coast where many hurricanes form each year. Warmer water in the tropical Pacific, all other things being equal, means more moisture available for the southwest summer monsoon. It also increases the probability that one of those tropical cyclones will make it's way north into Southern California during September or October.

With the exception of monsoon thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts, and the, occasional, dissipating tropical storm, California is almost always bone dry during the dry season. Anyone who has spent even a couple of years out there knows this. If anything, the next six months will be wetter, more humid, cooler during the day and warmer at night than is "normal". But often, people who write the articles on the California drought can't find an effective way to say the next few months will be wetter than normal even though the drought will continue.

 

[Weatherman]

If anything, warmer water temperatures would enhance the summer monsoon by providing higher humidity and more moisture to the air. Mountain and desert areas of California will likely get more rainfall this summer than they would in a normal year. More rain and more cloud cover would mean less hot daytime highs, although nighttime lows would be warmer with the higher humidity.

It might be interesting to check your predictions at the end of summer... Want to provide a short list of locations to check?

Coastal areas? San Diego and Los Angeles

Mountains? Big Bear, Mammoth Lakes, South Lake Tahoe

If you want to pick a location out in the desert: Palmdale, Needles, Bishop