Western USA drought worst in modern era

[WetEV]

Back in 1988, James Hansen predicted we would experience a temperature rise of 0.5 degrees Celsius per decade in the business-as-usual scenario.

Oh my. Science is a collection of habits and practices to avoid the all to common human failing of fooling yourself or being fooled by others. One of these habits and practices is to try to find the original source, and not completely believe what others have said about this source. Perhaps you had better first find out what James Hanson's prediction really was. Please start by finding his original graph showing all three scenarios, and posting a link to it, and explain from that graph how exactly you get 0.5 C per decade out of business-as-usual.

 

[Stoaty]

Perhaps you had better first find out what James Hanson's prediction really was. Please start by finding his original graph showing all three scenarios, and posting a link to it, and explain from that graph how exactly you get 0.5 C per decade out of business-as-usual.

In case he doesn't have the time and energy to do that, it has already been done:

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/05/08/479652/lessons-from-past-predictions-hansen-1981/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[smkettner]

We need a parallel earth as a control group.

That is what the past of the Earth gives us.

And should show temperatures have changed long before man started burning carbon.

I just get tired of hearing AGW is the only game in town.

 

[thankyouOB]

when i see a problem and 90% of scientists agree about it, i always think the best idea is to ignore the vast majority and go on my merry way.

 

[edatoakrun]

SPECIAL WEATHER/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
CAZ013>019-063-064-066>069-021800-

SPECIAL WEATHER/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
202 PM PST SAT FEB 1 2014

...A PLETHORA OF RECORDS SET IN SACRAMENTO CALIFORNIA THROUGHOUT
JANUARY 2014 DURING THIS HISTORIC DROUGHT...

JANUARY 2014 RE-WROTE THE RECORD BOOKS IN SACRAMENTO. HERE ARE
THE HIGHLIGHTS, MANY RECORDS NEVER SEEN BEFORE IN THE CAPITAL
CITY.

1. LONGEST DRY PERIOD DURING THE RAINY SEASON (NOV-MAR)
FROM DEC 7, 2013 TO JAN 29, 2014, 52 DAYS. THE OLD RECORD
WAS 44 DAYS FROM NOV 15, 1976 TO DEC 28, 1976 ( MEASURABLE RAIN)

2. THE THIRD DRIEST JAN IN HISTORY SINCE 1850 WITH 0.20 INCHES
DATING BACK TO SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION RECORDS.

3. JAN PRECIPITATION ENDED WITH 0.20 INCHES. NORMAL IS 3.97 INCHES.
THIS IS ONLY 5 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

4. JAN 2014 BROKE HIGHEST AVERAGE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WITH 66.1
DEGREES. THE OLD RECORD WAS 62.1 DEGREES SET IN 1976. AVERAGE
MONTHLY MAXIMUM ONLY 55.1 DEGREES.

5. NEW ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH FOR THE MONTH OF JAN SET ON JAN 24, 2014
OF 79 DEGREES. THE OLD RECORD WAS 74 DEGREES ON JAN 31,1976.

6. JAN 2014 BROKE THE NUMBER OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES OF
70 DEGREES OR HIGHER AT 7 DAYS. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 6 DAYS
SET IN 1976.

7. TIED THE RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
AT 70 DEGREES OR HIGHER WITH 3 DAYS IN JAN FROM JAN 23, 2014 TO
JAN 25 2014. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS JAN 29, 1976 TO JAN 31, 1976.

8. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SET ON 12 DIFFERENT DAYS IN JAN 2014

JAN 1....65 DEGREES....TIED RECORD SET IN 1887.
JAN 2....66 DEGREES....BREAKS RECORD OF 65 SET IN 1940.
JAN 3....66 DEGREES....BREAKS RECORD OF 64 SET IN 2012.
JAN 7....65 DEGREES....TIED RECORD SET IN 2012.
JAN 15...69 DEGREES....BREAKS RECORD OF 68 SET IN 2003.
JAN 16...71 DEGREES....BREAKS RECORD OF 68 SET IN 1991.
JAN 18...70 DEGREES....TIED RECORD SET IN 1976.
JAN 20...71 DEGREES....BREAKS RECORD OF 69 SET IN 1976.
JAN 23...71 DEGREES....BREAKS RECORD OF 69 SET IN 1948.
JAN 24...79 DEGREES....BREAKS RECORD OF 7O SET IN 1984.(ALL-TIME)JAN
JAN 25...74 DEGREES....BREAKS RECORD OF 71 SET IN 1899.
JAN 28...70 DEGREES....TIED RECORD SET IN 1984.

9. EVERYDAY IN JAN 2014 THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE MONTH, NORMAL HIGH RANGE IS 53 TO 57 DEGREES.
JAN 2014 WAS 57 TO 79 DEGREES.

10. FINALLY, WE ARE HOPING FOR A FABULOUS FEB 2014. ALL-TIME RECORD
FOR RAIN IN FEB IS 10.30 INCHES SET IN 1986.

HAVE A NICE WEEKEND!

SPECIAL NOTE: SACRAMENTO STATICAL DATA WAS USED DUE TO ITS
LENGTHY HISTORY FOR RECORDS DATING BACK TO 1849 FOR PRECIPITATION
AND 1877 FOR TEMPERATURES. SEVERAL OTHER LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT
INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DID BREAK RECORDS, BUT DUE TO THE
DETAILED DATA BASE FOR SACRAMENTO DETAILED INFORMATION WAS
VERIFIED.

$$
POWELL

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=LKN&wwa=all" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[WetEV]

We need a parallel earth as a control group.

That is what the past of the Earth gives us.

And should show temperatures have changed long before man started burning carbon.

I just get tired of hearing AGW is the only game in town.

Congratulations, you beat the straw man again. Next time, try the stick man, it is harder, you might learn more.

On a geologic time scale, most (not all) climate change is fairly slow. End of the last ice age, for example, was about 4C over 8000 years. We have seen 0.6C over the past 40 years, which is about as long as I've been watching the Keeling curve.

 

[smkettner]

On a geologic time scale, most (not all) climate change is fairly slow. End of the last ice age, for example, was about 4C over 8000 years. We have seen 0.6C over the past 40 years, which is about as long as I've been watching the Keeling curve.

I also struggle with geologic time scales. If you had a reading every 40 years during that 8000 it would be far more interesting. How do we know .4c in in 40 years is not within the fluctuations during that 8000 years?
Do you think it was .02 C every 40 years?

The straw man is live and well BTW

 

[DaveEV]

How about if we keep the global warming discussion in the global warming thread and keep this thread related to the current drought?

I think that most can agree that global warming is likely to have some role in the current drought, but the extent of it's effect this time around is certainly debatable.

 

[smkettner]

I keep seeing pictures of modern junk at the bottom of these dry reservoirs.
Can some of these environmentalists get down there and clean this stuff up?

 

[Stoaty]

I keep seeing pictures of modern junk at the bottom of these dry reservoirs.
Can some of these environmentalists get down there and clean this stuff up?

It is most likely that the non-environmentalists were the ones who were responsible for that stuff being there, so perhaps they should exercise some personal responsibility and clean it up.

 

[GRA]

I keep seeing pictures of modern junk at the bottom of these dry reservoirs.
Can some of these environmentalists get down there and clean this stuff up?

It is most likely that the non-environmentalists were the ones who were responsible for that stuff being there, so perhaps they should exercise some personal responsibility and clean it up.

What sort of hallucinogenic drugs are you on today, expecting that the people who dumped the stuff are going to pick it up? Every year around Earth Day in Monterey there's a beach/underwater cleanup, the latter usually around Wharf #2 (the commercial fishing boat pier). We typically need a cherry picker crane to remove some of the heavier junk that gets dumped off the wharf into 20-30 feet of water; I've personally chained washing machines, outboard motors, truck tires and axles, furniture, clothing racks, large steel plates of unknown purpose, large gate valves, assorted engines, bicycles and motorcycles, etc. Same with reservoirs where we've had dive cleanups, although the garbage tends to be smaller and lighter as there's no convenient way to drive a car to a pier over deep water in those locations. Litterers picking up their own garbage? I'll be ice skating in the infernal regions before that happens.

 

[smkettner]

Perfect plan. Wait until it rains and the lake is filled before organizing the clean up. Then we can pay for the special recovery boat, sonar locating equipment and all the personnel.

Just seems easy to round up a dump truck and a back-hoe and pluck out some of the easy stuff while the lake is gone.
Maybe a flat bed tow truck for a full vehicle recovery.

The environmentalists can lead the affair so any artifacts are left in place.

Just saying if so worried about the environment..... opportunity is right here to show off a bit.

 

[Weatherman]

Thought this might be of some interest, to give some perspective on the current drought:

http://www.thestormking.com/Weather/Sierra_Snowfall/sierra_snowfall.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[GRA]

Perfect plan. Wait until it rains and the lake is filled before organizing the clean up. Then we can pay for the special recovery boat, sonar locating equipment and all the personnel.

Just seems easy to round up a dump truck and a back-hoe and pluck out some of the easy stuff while the lake is gone.
Maybe a flat bed tow truck for a full vehicle recovery.

The environmentalists can lead the affair so any artifacts are left in place.

Just saying if so worried about the environment..... opportunity is right here to show off a bit.

What makes you think such a clean-up won't happen - it usually has in the past. Of course, part of the problem with some of the lakes is that the drought is exposing some old towns, and the archaeologists are worried that tourists are removing artifacts from the sites, or just tramping around and damaging them. One of the local newpapers, or maybe it was a TV station, had an article about this re Folsom Lake in the past month. Personally, though, I'm far less concerned about durable, non-toxic junk dumped into man-made reservoirs than I am about some of the other stuff or locations. The only time people will see most of this stuff is when there's a drought, and since it's an artificial environment anyway, it's less of an issue. Typically, the priority is toxics first, then plastics, then metal and glass, then fabrics and wood. And sometimes the junk has become habitat, so it's better to leave it in situ.

 

[AndyH]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZGsdnYqbjk[/youtube]

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

So are people conserving, or is it pretty much BAU ?

 

[GRA]

So are people conserving, or is it pretty much BAU ?

Haven't seen any info either way as yet, although there was a local TV news story about using gray water a day or two ago, and if there's no significant relief we'll see more and more of those. It's been raining off and on in the Bay Area since yesterday with more to come, so that has probably muted things. As for me, I've been peeing in a jar for the past two weeks, but my water usage in either normal or drought conditions is hardly typical, plus I remember '75-'77. :lol:

The central valley farmers who won't be getting subsidized water from the state water project are the ones who will likely start conserving in earnest first, although Silicon Valley and urban parts of eastern Alameda County also get SWP water, so they'll have issues soon if the rain stops. This describes the situation as of the SWP announcement:

http://www.mercurynews.com/science/ci_25036886/california-drought-state-water-project-will-deliver-no" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Other than that, I haven't seen anyone parking their car on their lawn while washing it yet, or similar obvious conservation efforts. I don't expect to unless mandatory rationing goes into effect.

 

[palmermd]

So are people conserving, or is it pretty much BAU ?

Haven't seen any info either way as yet, although there was a local TV news story about using gray water a day or two ago, and if there's no significant relief we'll see more and more of those. It's been raining off and on in the Bay Area since yesterday with more to come, so that has probably muted things. As for me, I've been peeing in a jar for the past two weeks, but my water usage in either normal or drought conditions is hardly typical, plus I remember '75-'77. :lol:

The central valley farmers who won't be getting subsidized water from the state water project are the ones who will likely start conserving in earnest first, although Silicon Valley and urban parts of eastern Alameda County also get SWP water, so they'll have issues soon if the rain stops. This describes the situation as of the SWP announcement:

http://www.mercurynews.com/science/ci_25036886/california-drought-state-water-project-will-deliver-no" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Other than that, I haven't seen anyone parking their car on their lawn while washing it yet, or similar obvious conservation efforts. I don't expect to unless mandatory rationing goes into effect.

Several Sacramento area water districts have mandatory restrictions and all of them have a voluntary 20% recommended restriction. Mostly voluntary because lots of homes don't have meters to enforce a strict 20% reduction. Mostly all they can do is make sure you stop watering the lawn except one day per week and don't wash cars and sidewalks and such. I have noticed a lot of dead lawns in the area, including mine.

http://www.sacbee.com/2014/01/14/6071929/sacramento-council-to-weigh-water.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[mwalsh]

So are people conserving, or is it pretty much BAU ?

I am. Capturing the water that runs before the water in our shower and kitchen sink gets hot. And also moving forward on a rainwater collection system I've been sitting on for a couple of years.

 

[smkettner]

My sprinklers are off. Might be back on if it warms up in the next two weeks.
No direct request to conserve from the water company.
Our water pricing is on a sliding scale that gets very steep for tier 3, 4, 5.

Has always bugged me to use treated potable water to keep the grass green.