When will LEAF sales reach 100,000?

[edatoakrun]

The article below reports total BEV sales:

(Reuters) - French carmaker Renault (RENA.PA) and its Japanese partner Nissan (7201.T) will have sold a total of 100,000 electric vehicles so far by the end of June, Carlos Ghosn, chief executive of both companies, said on Saturday.

...Ghosn, who has ploughed a bigger share of his companies' cash into electric car technology than any other mass-market carmaker, said the alliance's investment in hybrid and electric vehicles "is not a bet, it is a certainty."...

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/07/06/uk-renault-ghosn-idUKBRE96507920130706" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

IIRC, it was also recently reported that LEAF sales worldwide have topped 70,000, but I can only find the sales numbers to May 15 at the moment:

Nissan Leaf Hits 25,000 U.S. Sales, 62,000 Sold Worldwide

http://wot.motortrend.com/nissan-leaf-hits-25000-us-sales-62000-sold-worldwide-367449.html#axzz2YSwdeECO" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I wonder if Nissan will publicize the date LEAF sales hit 100,000?

I would have guessed ~ early fall six months ago, but US production clearly has been (and apparently still is) constrained.

So as of today, I'll guess that the 100k LEAF sales mark will be reached on ~ 12/25/13.

 

[Stanton]

If they're global marketing team is worth anything, they should have a HUGE publicity campaign for 100k sales.

 

[RegGuheert]

I wonder if Nissan will publicize the date LEAF sales hit 100,000?

I was just thinking of starting a topic on this exact question! You beat me to it!

So as of today, I'll guess that the 100k LEAF sales mark will be reached on ~ 12/25/13.

Christmas, huh?

Since I doubt there are too many sales on Christmas, I'll guess New Year's Eve: 12/31/2013.

When do you think we'll get to 100,000 in the U.S.?

 

[evnow]

If on May 15th the sales were at 62k - it will be a while before we get to 100k. Since the Leaf sales in Japan has slowed down (<1k) and I think ROW is about 1k per month - we have 4k or so per month. At that rate it will take about 9 months.

 

[Valdemar]

Slightly OT, but I wonder if Nissan will find themselves at a serious disadvantage against competition after they reach the limit for the fed tax credit, iirc it is set per manufacturer. So much for being a pioneer in the affordable (more or less) EV business.

 

[TomT]

I think the simple answer is definitely yes. They may have no choice but to decrease the price at that point.

Slightly OT, but I wonder if Nissan will find themselves at a serious disadvantage against competition after they reach the limit for the fed tax credit.

 

[Valdemar]

I think the simple answer is definitely yes. They may have no choice but to decrease the price at that point.

Slightly OT, but I wonder if Nissan will find themselves at a serious disadvantage against competition after they reach the limit for the fed tax credit.

Can this be one of the reasons they are not in a rush to ramp up production in TN?

 

[cwerdna]

Re: 62K, per http://nissannews.com/fr-CA/nissan/canada/releases/nissan-zeod-rc-q-a-billy-hayes-nissan-vice-president-in-charge-of-global-sales-of-the-nissan-leaf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and others, more than 65K Leafs have been sold worldwide as of June 21, 2013.

 

[jhm614]

I will play
100k global Leafs - March 15th, 2014
100k US Leafs - February 15th, 2016

 

[edatoakrun]

Re: 62K, per http://nissannews.com/fr-CA/nissan/canada/releases/nissan-zeod-rc-q-a-billy-hayes-nissan-vice-president-in-charge-of-global-sales-of-the-nissan-leaf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and others, more than 65K Leafs have been sold worldwide as of June 21, 2013.

Actually, by 5/31 according to:

...As of 31 May 2013, worldwide sales are led by the United States with more than 27,100 units, Japan with more than 26,000 units, followed by Europe with more than 10,000 units delivered, with global sales totaling over 65,000 Leafs...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_Leaf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Making the >70,000 to-date number report quite plausible, though I can't find it now.

 

[edatoakrun]

71k+ sold to date, according to recent Nissan PR.

Nissan LEAF best-selling EV ever

More than 71,000 people worldwide have bought Nissan LEAF, the world's best-selling electric vehicle. LEAF makes up more than half of all global sales of pure electric cars.

Nissan LEAF won the 2011 World Car of the Year, European Car of the Year 2011 and Car of the Year Japan 2011-2012 awards.

More than 80% of LEAF buyers globally exchange cars from other automakers, making the LEAF one of the industry's most innovative "conquest vehicles." The majority of customers say the LEAF, which consumes no petroleum whatsoever, has replaced their conventional car for daily use.

The top markets for Nissan LEAF are the United States with about 30,000 units, Japan with 28,000 units and Europe with 12,000 units...

http://www.autoblog.com/2013/07/23/renault-nissan-zero-emissions-car-sales-reach-100000-video/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[edatoakrun]

I wonder if Nissan will publicize the date LEAF sales hit 100,000?

I was just thinking of starting a topic on this exact question! You beat me to it!

So as of today, I'll guess that the 100k LEAF sales mark will be reached on ~ 12/25/13.

Christmas, huh?

Since I doubt there are too many sales on Christmas, I'll guess New Year's Eve: 12/31/2013.

When do you think we'll get to 100,000 in the U.S.?

Total LEAF sales reported over 75 k a few weeks back, and must be ~80,000 by now.

So maybe the LEAF will hit 100 k sales well before the end of the year.

 

[edatoakrun]

...Cumulative global sales of the Nissan LEAF now total over 83,000, which means that at the present pace, the 100,000-unit mark will fall in January 2014, but who knows – maybe ramping up production of the LEAF in US will let Nissan cross this mark before the end of the year...

http://insideevs.com/global-nissan-leaf-sales-hit-record-levels-in-september-cumulative-total-passes-83000/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[edatoakrun]

"About 85,000 Leafs have been sold worldwide" as reported in this story on US LEAF buyer demographics:

October 22, 2013 at 5:49 pm

Nissan says more women buying Leaf EVs

Washington — Nissan Motor Co. says the number of female U.S. buyers of its electric Leaf has nearly doubled in recent months, and that the average income and age of buyers has fallen since the automaker cut its price.

At the beginning of 2013, women accounted for just 10 to 15 percent of Leaf buyers, but that has increased to 25 to 30 percent, said Erik Gottfried, director of electric vehicle sales and marketing for Nissan North America. “The early buyers were very heavily skewed male,” Gottfried said at a Washington Auto Press Association luncheon.

“There had been some concern initially of, ‘What if I am by myself and I run out of charge?’” he said.

Nissan announce an 18 percent price cut — to $28,800 — in January. Since then, the average age and average income of Leaf buyers both declined dramatically, Gottfried said. More people in their 30s and families are taking an interest in the vehicle. “We’re seeing a normalization in demographics and geographic footprint of the vehicle,” Gottfried said...


Nissan had its best ever-sales month worldwide for the Leaf in September and is now on sale in 30 countries and all 50 U.S. states. About 80 percent of its dealers sell the Leaf. Nissan will be launching in China and the Leaf is being rolled out in South Africa. About 85,000 Leafs have been sold worldwide....

From The Detroit News: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20131022/AUTO0104/310220127#ixzz2iecc295N" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[planet4ever]

Slightly OT, but I wonder if Nissan will find themselves at a serious disadvantage against competition after they reach the limit for the fed tax credit.

I think the simple answer is definitely yes. They may have no choice but to decrease the price at that point.

Can this be one of the reasons they are not in a rush to ramp up production in TN?

I doubt it. That date won't come any time soon, and it isn't a sudden cutoff when it does. The limit is 200,000 vehicles sold or leased for use in the United States. Let's say that sales continue to grow modestly, and that limit is reached in May 2017. The $7500 credit would continue to hold for new vehicles sold through September 2017, then would taper for the next year, ending on October 1, 2018.

Please note: These dates are hypothetical, depending on a personal guess as to when 200,000 is reached.

Ray

 

[edatoakrun]

If JC's total is correct, looks like I was only a few weeks optimistic in my OP last July, predicting a LEAF-tastic XMAS day sales total.


Video: Nissan Commercial Touts Passing 87,000 LEAFs Sold Worldwide


Nissan is ramping up the media anticipation level of being the first automaker to sell 6-digits worth of an electric vehicle as they have produced another in the series of commercials touting sales of the 75 mile EV.

Heading into November, over 87,000 LEAFs have now been sold worldwide, and it appears given the continuation of recent sales trends, the magic “100,000” will fall very early in 2014.

Last month, Nissan sold 2,003 LEAFs in the US, 1,257 in Japan and another 1,200-odd for the rest of the world (but mostly in Europe). These numbers combined (4,460) bring the LEAF up to a current total of around 91,500 heading into December – which is traditionally the best selling month of plug-ins.

http://insideevs.com/video-nissan-commercial-touts-passing-87000-leafs-sold-worldwide/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[donald]

...Ghosn, who has ploughed a bigger share of his companies' cash into electric car technology than any other mass-market carmaker, said the alliance's investment in hybrid and electric vehicles "is not a bet, it is a certainty."...

I wouldn't disagree, but the real question is when to make the investment to maximise the return. If your competitors all maximise their returns better than you, then who is due to go out of business first?

Does anyone have a sales-growth, or cumulative, plot [or link to one] for Leaf sales in the US? Is it steady monthly sales rate at the moment, is it accelerating, or is it flattening out?

 

[edatoakrun]

Well, if the LEAF sales haven't reached 100k yet, they should pretty soon.

As to 2013 sales worldwide, looks like the LEAF was close to 50 k sales for the single year, as 42,366 were reported for the just the first 10 months:

http://www.ev-sales.blogspot.com/search/label/World" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

While the LEAF may have held more than 50% of the world BEV (full-sized vehicles) market in 2013, It looks have only had in the high 40's percentage of US market share.

It does look like the LEAF has a decent shot at a 50% + BEV market share for both the US and worldwide this year, since the competition remains so weak (IMO) in the BEV mass-market.

No, I am not counting PHEVs...

="donald"

...Does anyone have a sales-growth, or cumulative, plot [or link to one] for Leaf sales in the US? ...

http://insideevs.com/december-2013-plug-in-electric-vehicle-sales-report-card/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[cwerdna]

Surprised nobody posted this. The story went live the afternoon of 1/19/14.

Nissan Sells 100,000 LEAFs, Captures 48% Of Worldwide Market To Date:
http://insideevs.com/nissan-sells-100000-leafs-captures-48-of-worldwide-market-to-date/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[TomT]

Unless Nissan makes some substantial improvements and updates, I expect that percentage to continue to drop as new and perhaps better players enter the market...

Nissan Sells 100,000 LEAFs, Captures 48% Of Worldwide Market To Date