Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

WetEV said:

Battery costs have declined significantly, and may continue to do so for a while.

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That's your guess!

Let's face it; The BEV is a brute force solution to a transportation problem, i.e. We've had battery powered
vehicle technology for decades. Yes, power semiconductors, brush-less motors, microcontrollers, & etc.,
have facilitated the BEV development, but the key technology is the same, i.e. a vehicle where its total
energy source is stored in a battery. It's only because of the lithium battery that BEVs have become
somewhat viable, but on a very limited acceptance basis. There's really no significant BEV technology
that's not available to all participants who wish to market a BEV.

Bottom Line: The FCEV provides the potential for a wider "transparent" acceptance of an alternate mode
of transportation to the ICEV.

I see the current ICE vehicles as the brute force solution. FCEV also as an inefficient expensive brute force solution for those that must refuel similar to the cars they already know. Not really a change.

BEV is the real change opportunity. Yes charging and range may take some effort. BEV takes a bit of finesse vs the existing brute force solutions.

The only solution Mirai provides is to satisfy regulatory requirements.
JMHO

smkettner said:

I see the current ICE vehicles as the brute force solution. FCEV also as an inefficient expensive brute force solution for those that must refuel similar to the cars they already know. Not really a change.

BEV is the real change opportunity. Yes charging and range may take some effort. BEV takes a bit of finesse vs the existing brute force solutions.

The only solution Mirai provides is to satisfy regulatory requirements.
JMHO

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When BEV battery densities approach that of a gallon of gasoline (33 kWh) and the charge rate is near 10C,
then there'll be something, i.e. technology, "to write home about". A BEV carrying over 500 lbs more weight,
i.e. Have to love that additional rolling resistance energy loss, to achieve the same 200+ miles of a FCEV is
hardly having a technology leadership or having provided any sort of transportation innovation.

Okay, getting this thread back on topic and off the FCEV vs ICE vs BEV which has its own thread.

http://www.vcstar.com/story/news/local/communities/conejo-valley/2016/09/23/thousand-oaks-get-countys-inaugural-hydrogen-pump/90802748/

Once this station opens in the spring, if it is on time, then that will be the final critical station required for the Mirai to be viable for me. I personally liked the car when I test drove it. But it needs the infrastructure to be in place first. And it looks like it is finally getting there.

Of course, it took them too long, so by the time it is an option for me, it looks like there will be better PHEV or BEVs with the range I need. So I will be torn when I finally go to pull the trigger on replacing my current ICE commuter. The fact that I will likely have several good options to choose from will be exciting.

Oddly, about a month ago I got a call inviting me to another test drive. Apparently their database didn't reflect that I had already done one and indicated interest but was placed on hold until a few key stations open up.

I wonder if the local Toyota dealer will start to carry the Mirai once this station opens up?

lorenfb said:

When BEV battery densities approach that of a gallon of gasoline (33 kWh) and the charge rate is near 10C,
then there'll be something, i.e. technology, "to write home about".

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Why?

BEVs are different than ICEs.

So, for that matter, are FCEVs.

All have points where they are better technologies. All have points were they are not better.

Hard to beat the convenience of a BEV for commuting. Charge rate is not an issue, even 0.1C would be more than fine.

lorenfb said:

smkettner said:

I see the current ICE vehicles as the brute force solution. FCEV also as an inefficient expensive brute force solution for those that must refuel similar to the cars they already know. Not really a change.

BEV is the real change opportunity. Yes charging and range may take some effort. BEV takes a bit of finesse vs the existing brute force solutions.

The only solution Mirai provides is to satisfy regulatory requirements.
JMHO

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When BEV battery densities approach that of a gallon of gasoline (33 kWh) and the charge rate is near 10C,
then there'll be something, i.e. technology, "to write home about". A BEV carrying over 500 lbs more weight,
i.e. Have to love that additional rolling resistance energy loss, to achieve the same 200+ miles of a FCEV is
hardly having a technology leadership or having provided any sort of transportation innovation.

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If the only yardstick is to continue with what we have then you are right.
I do not think Mirai is a real solution to the emissions issues.

DarthPuppy said:

Once this station opens in the spring, if it is on time, then that will be the final critical station required for the Mirai to be viable for me. I personally liked the car when I test drove it. But it needs the infrastructure to be in place first. And it looks like it is finally getting there.

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Well that's encouraging to hear, i.e. some do see appealing values of the FCEV.

Here in the SoCal area of LA, I've begun to see Mirais, i.e. 4 in the last week. Obviously that's insignificant compared
to other EVs most of us see daily, but more than other low volume BEVs, e.g. eGolf.

http://insideevs.com/2017-toyota-mirai-price-unchanged-but-leased-from-349month-new-color-added/ reports some juicier lease deals.

Mirai customers also may qualify for... $5,000 potential California rebate along with access to the coveted California HOV carpool lane.
...
Trailblazer Lease: $349 per month for 36 months, $2,499 due at signing* with 12,000/year mileage allowance

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And, as before, 3 years of fuel are included.

Has anyone done a deep dive into this study? Interesting in that the difference in total life cycle "carbon" of hybrids, fuel cell, pure electric (low range) would seem to be minor - probably driven more by assumptions of future technology developments than the actual results we will experience years from now!

It is surprising that the FCEVs do so well considering the state of technology, energy requirements of production/storage of super-critical hydrogen gas, infrastructure, distribution energy, etc, etc. Imagine some day our "politicians/EPA" are telling us that too much di-hydrogen oxide in the atmosphere is a results of our careless use of our automobiles!!

https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/14006_cradle_to_grave_analysis.pdf

lorenfb said:

When BEV battery densities approach that of a gallon of gasoline (33 kWh) and the charge rate is near 10C,
then there'll be something, i.e. technology, "to write home about". A BEV carrying over 500 lbs more weight,
i.e. Have to love that additional rolling resistance energy loss, to achieve the same 200+ miles of a FCEV is
hardly having a technology leadership or having provided any sort of transportation innovation.

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BEV battery densities don't need to be equivalent to gasoline simply because a BEV is far more efficient then an ICEV.

Actually even though a BEV that can go 200+ miles weighs more it will still get a better MPGe then a FCEV going the same distance.

A BEV doesn't need 10C charging especially being that most cars sit parked for probably 90%- 95% of the day (plenty of hours for charging)

Battery density will continue to improve, range will keep going up, charging will get faster and prices will continue coming down with BEVs. How long will it take to build out an H2 network throughout the United States? How much will this cost and who's going to pay for it all? By the time the H2 infrastructure is complete BEVs will be so far ahead in terms of cost, performance and range.

Sounds to me like you have it backwards!

When it comes to the FCEV there's really "nothing to write home about!"

Via GCR:

Price cut and monthly sales spike for Toyota Mirai fuel-cell sedan

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http://www.greencarcongress.com/

I've already covered both of these stories, but the article includes some info on who the customers were that caused the sales spike:

. . . From January through July, the Mirai sold at a rate of about 40 a month, logging a total of 270 sales over seven months. Then, in August, a whopping 371 were delivered, more than doubling the annual total to 641.

Most of those deliveries were to Toyota employees, according to Jana Hartline, the company's environmental communications manager. In response to a reader tip sent to this site, Hartline wrote,

"We did offer a Mirai team member lease program in August. I can say a good majority of the month’s volume went to that program, which was a way to transition to the new [model year]. As with all our vehicles, team members are offered special lease pricing.

With 21 retail hydrogen stations open today, the majority located in SoCal where most team members live, and four to five more coming online before year end, it was a good time to offer the Mirai to our California team. . . ."

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It never hurts to have your own employees showing their faith in the company's products by purchasing them themselves (even if they do get a special discount), and acting as ambassadors. As it is, I've yet to see a Mirai here in the Bay Area, but they seem to be fairly common sights in SoCal.

GRA said:

It never hurts to have your own employees showing their faith in the company's products by purchasing them themselves (even if they do get a special discount), and acting as ambassadors. As it is, I've yet to see a Mirai here in the Bay Area, but they seem to be fairly common sights in SoCal.

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I agree with you about car company employees "showing their faith", which is why Tesla employees made thousands of reservations for Model 3.

I drive thoisands of miles a month in SoCal, and I've never seen a Hydrogen car. Not one.

TonyWilliams said:

I drive thoisands of miles a month in SoCal, and I've never seen a Hydrogen car. Not one.

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It's not easy to differentiate a Mirai from a late model Prius. The rear-end design is very close to the Mirai's.
The front-end of the Prius is more conservative, though.

lorenfb said:

TonyWilliams said:

I drive thoisands of miles a month in SoCal, and I've never seen a Hydrogen car. Not one.

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It's not easy to differentiate a Mirai from a late model Prius. The rear-end design is very close to the Mirai's.
The front-end of the Prius is more conservative, though.

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I guess we can assume most of the sightings of Mirai are actually newer Prius, then. Since it is unlikely many Mirai have been seen, with as few in number as there are.

lorenfb said:

It's not easy to differentiate a Mirai from a late model Prius. The rear-end design is very close to the Mirai's.
The front-end of the Prius is more conservative, though.

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Only difference really is the long tail light... besides that, both are the same fugly design and Toyota is redesigning the Prius for next model year due to worst sales since it was introduced! :lol:

They are trying to give them away right now...

lorenfb said:

TonyWilliams said:

I drive thoisands of miles a month in SoCal, and I've never seen a Hydrogen car. Not one.

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It's not easy to differentiate a Mirai from a late model Prius. The rear-end design is very close to the Mirai's.
The front-end of the Prius is more conservative, though.

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The new Prius is all over the place here, and I agree about the rear ends being similar, but the front of the Mirai is distinctive (and fugly) enough that I'm certain I'd recognize one if I saw it. There are so many of the new Prius' around that I've almost stopped noticing how ugly _they_ are! Photos of the new Prime aka PiP 2 seem to show they've improved on some of the worst bits of the HEV.

Can't say the Gen 4 Prius' looks will ever grow on me, but they're becoming just another part of the automotive landscape. OTOH, I feel the Mirai is destined to permanently reside in my personal auto appearance hell, along with cars like the Juke and, going back aways, late '60s - early '70s Rover sedans, a car that refused to use a nice looking angle if an awkward one was available; it would be hard to imagine a car more dumpy-looking. The backward-slanting rear window Mercuries might also make the cut, but there it's more a case of a single feature ruining what was otherwise a fairly normal-looking car. With the Mirai, the Juke and a few others, it's a case of a camel designed by a committee on hallucinogens.

Too me, the Mirai and new Prius aren't that hard to tell apart.

But in SoCal, I've seen a ton of the new Prii running around. I was just thinking the other day at how incredibly fast those have hit the road in significant numbers. if they aren't selling well, I guess California must be absorbing the vast majority of them.

Of course, I've only seen one Mirai in the wild. All the others that I've seen were part of the demo.

DarthPuppy said:

But in SoCal, I've seen a ton of the new Prii running around. I was just thinking the other day at how incredibly fast those have hit the road in significant numbers. if they aren't selling well, I guess California must be absorbing the vast majority of them.

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That may be the case. I've spotted exactly ONE of the new Prii around here so far. (And, yes, we have lots of Prii driving around.)

TonyWilliams said:

I drive thoisands of miles a month in SoCal, and I've never seen a Hydrogen car. Not one.

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Surprised you hadn't seen Honda's FCX Clarity or Mercedes' B-Class FCV. Maybe those were based around LA and not San Diego? I test drove those + at least 2 other hydrogen FCEVs at Alt Car Expo in 2012 (IIRC).

I suddenly started seeing a bunch of Mirais in Aug and Sep.

I saw one many months ago at the hydrogen fueling station near my work.

As I posted on 8/28/16 elsewhere:
Mirai sightings in the wild are pretty rare for me (not counting auto shows or events). Prior to today, I'd only seen a single 1 in the wild, at a hydrogen fueling station near work. I was with someone at the time so I wasn't able stop to talk to the driver.

Oddly, I saw 2 today: 1 parked (w/ plates) and 1 on the road w/o plates yet.

And then on 9/3:
Re: Mirai sightings, I spotted a black/dark one a few nights ago in a parking lot w/a guy getting out from it. The only one I ever saw fueling was also of the same/similar color, so it might've been the same vehicle.

RegGuheert said:

DarthPuppy said:

But in SoCal, I've seen a ton of the new Prii running around. I was just thinking the other day at how incredibly fast those have hit the road in significant numbers. if they aren't selling well, I guess California must be absorbing the vast majority of them.

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That may be the case. I've spotted exactly ONE of the new Prii around here so far. (And, yes, we have lots of Prii driving around.)

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I'm starting to see more and more of the (horrible looking ) Gen 4 Priuses now. There are now a couple at my work besides the Zipcar Gen 4 Prius we have. I sometimes see them on the road, as well.