Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

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cwerdna said:
RegGuheert said:
DarthPuppy said:
But in SoCal, I've seen a ton of the new Prii running around. I was just thinking the other day at how incredibly fast those have hit the road in significant numbers. if they aren't selling well, I guess California must be absorbing the vast majority of them.
That may be the case. I've spotted exactly ONE of the new Prii around here so far. (And, yes, we have lots of Prii driving around.)
I'm starting to see more and more of the (horrible looking :() Gen 4 Priuses now. There are now a couple at my work besides the Zipcar Gen 4 Prius we have. I sometimes see them on the road, as well.
In the East Bay, the Gen 4 Priuses are common. While not yet ubiquitous as are the Gen 2/3, they're almost everywhere. The Volt 2 is doing quite well also, if not in the same league.
 
Latest Edmunds' Mirai long-term test report:
2016 Toyota Mirai: Hydrogen vs. Electricity Road Trip to Lake Tahoe
http://www.edmunds.com/toyota/mirai/2016/long-term-road-test/2016-toyota-mirai-hydrogen-vs-electricity-road-trip-to-lake-tahoe.html

It's Mirai vs. Model X on the same 487 mile route. Short version:
It's 7:05 am as Jay and I climb aboard our mounts and back out of our respective parking spaces [in Santa Monica]. At 7:07 am we're lined up outside the building, waiting for the first traffic signal of the trip to turn green. I'm piloting the 2016 Toyota Mirai and Jay is behind the wheel of our 2016 Tesla Model X. Both cars are filled with their respective fuels and headed for an eventual rendezvous at the Basecamp Hotel in South Lake Tahoe. . . .

[Mirai stops at Harris Ranch and W. Sacramento for H2 plus short pee, fast food and photo stops, Model X at Buttonwillow because the nav. said to despite being unneeded, Harris Ranch, Manteca and Folsom]

The clock on my iPhone reads 3:38pm as I nose the Mirai into the Basecamp hotel's parking lot, which is 8 hours and 33 minutes after Jay and I began our alt-fuel contest. The trip computer says I averaged 60 mph and the car was switched on for 7 hours and 57 minutes, which means I spent a total of 36 minutes outside the car. . . .

He finally rolls up a full 90 minutes after I arrived. He's blown away by the magnitude of the gap, at which point I make sure to point out that it could have been 15 minutes worse if I hadn't chosen to make three superfluous stops after lunch.
Not that there was ever any doubt as to which car would win, as long as they took a route with H2 stations along the way. The return trip will be more equal, as the Mirai driver plans to detour to Truckee before heading back to SoCal [the Model X has destination charging so will be full when they start] as they're going to do some sightseeing in the Tahoe area. Otherwise, he could easily return to the W. Sacramento station on the fuel he has. Here's the Model X driver's report:
2016 Tesla Model X: Math, Befuddled Software and Chasing A Mirai to Lake Tahoe
http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-x/2016/long-term-road-test/2016-tesla-model-x-math-befuddled-software-and-chasing-a-mirai-to-lake-tahoe.html
 
cwerdna said:
Surprised you hadn't seen Honda's FCX Clarity or Mercedes' B-Class FCV.

I might have, but I probably wouldn't have realized it since I'm not familiar with the Clarity and wouldn't realize it was a FCV and I'm familiar with the B EV and so I would have assumed any B I came across was the EV, not the FCV. Looking at the pictures online for the Clarity, I think I would have assumed it was a new Accord and not paid any attention to it.
 
DarthPuppy said:
cwerdna said:
Surprised you hadn't seen Honda's FCX Clarity or Mercedes' B-Class FCV.

I might have, but I probably wouldn't have realized it since I'm not familiar with the Clarity and wouldn't realize it was a FCV and I'm familiar with the B EV and so I would have assumed any B I came across was the EV, not the FCV. Looking at the pictures online for the Clarity, I think I would have assumed it was a new Accord and not paid any attention to it.
I'm pretty sure that http://www.caranddriver.com/photo-gallery/2009-honda-fcx-clarity-1 is what I drove. The list of vehicles available for test drives and/or viewing at http://web.archive.org/web/20121019224610/http://altcarexpo.com/exhibitor_vehicles.html was a little inaccurate, but there was a VERY good selection that year.

Back then, I didn't even know that Mercedes had ANY B-Class in the US yet. This was way before the B-Class ED. Back then, in the US, the lowest was the C-Class. A and B-Class were relegated to outside the US, except for this FCV.

When I was down there in 2012, the B-Class FCV had been leased for awhile (since 2011 it looks like from http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1052061_want-to-lease-a-fuel-cell-vehicle-thatll-be-850-a-month-please). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_FCX_Clarity claims US leasing began in 08.
 
GRA said:
Latest Edmunds' Mirai long-term test report:
2016 Toyota Mirai: Hydrogen vs. Electricity Road Trip to Lake Tahoe
http://www.edmunds.com/toyota/mirai/2016/long-term-road-test/2016-toyota-mirai-hydrogen-vs-electricity-road-trip-to-lake-tahoe.html

It's Mirai vs. Model X on the same 487 mile route. Short version:
It's 7:05 am as Jay and I climb aboard our mounts and back out of our respective parking spaces [in Santa Monica]. At 7:07 am we're lined up outside the building, waiting for the first traffic signal of the trip to turn green. I'm piloting the 2016 Toyota Mirai and Jay is behind the wheel of our 2016 Tesla Model X. Both cars are filled with their respective fuels and headed for an eventual rendezvous at the Basecamp Hotel in South Lake Tahoe. . . .

[Mirai stops at Harris Ranch and W. Sacramento for H2 plus short pee, fast food and photo stops, Model X at Buttonwillow because the nav. said to despite being unneeded, Harris Ranch, Manteca and Folsom]

The clock on my iPhone reads 3:38pm as I nose the Mirai into the Basecamp hotel's parking lot, which is 8 hours and 33 minutes after Jay and I began our alt-fuel contest. The trip computer says I averaged 60 mph and the car was switched on for 7 hours and 57 minutes, which means I spent a total of 36 minutes outside the car. . . .

He finally rolls up a full 90 minutes after I arrived. He's blown away by the magnitude of the gap, at which point I make sure to point out that it could have been 15 minutes worse if I hadn't chosen to make three superfluous stops after lunch.
Not that there was ever any doubt as to which car would win, as long as they took a route with H2 stations along the way. The return trip will be more equal, as the Mirai driver plans to detour to Truckee before heading back to SoCal [the Model X has destination charging so will be full when they start] as they're going to do some sightseeing in the Tahoe area. Otherwise, he could easily return to the W. Sacramento station on the fuel he has. Here's the Model X driver's report:
2016 Tesla Model X: Math, Befuddled Software and Chasing A Mirai to Lake Tahoe
http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-x/2016/long-term-road-test/2016-tesla-model-x-math-befuddled-software-and-chasing-a-mirai-to-lake-tahoe.html

The only issue I take with this is that the Mirai started off fulling fueled up. That didn't happen for "free" (in terms of time), like the Model X did. The time should be counted. I normally start any long road trip with a trip to the gas station to top off, so it's not really out of the ordinary.

Otherwise, there is nothing surprising here. The Mirai is better suited for a long-haul trip with minimal stops (provided the necessary infrastructure, of course). The Model X made the journey just fine, though. And this type of trip is a rare one. I want my car to be able to do it. But I'm not willing to sacrifice the daily convenience of home fueling for the rare convenience of a quicker road trip.

And then there is the question of the eventually-unsubsidized fuel costs for the trip. That goes both ways, btw. What if the Model X had to pay for electricity, and the Mirai had to pay for hydrogen? Well we know the answer today. We don't know the answer for 10 years from now, but we can reasonably guess that the Mirai will be more expensive.
 
GetOffYourGas said:
The only issue I take with this is that the Mirai started off fulling fueled up. That didn't happen for "free" (in terms of time), like the Model X did. The time should be counted. I normally start any long road trip with a trip to the gas station to top off, so it's not really out of the ordinary.
As there's two H2 stations in/next to Santa Monica, any extra fueling time would be minimal, but feel free to include that time as a special trip. For my recent trips to the east side, I'd have had to go 1.9 miles each way out of my way for H2 refueling. OTOH, I'd have had to go even further out of my way to recharge, and it would have taken longer too, since I can't charge at home. It's all a question of each person's situation.

GetOffYourGas said:
Otherwise, there is nothing surprising here. The Mirai is better suited for a long-haul trip with minimal stops (provided the necessary infrastructure, of course). The Model X made the journey just fine, though. And this type of trip is a rare one. I want my car to be able to do it. But I'm not willing to sacrifice the daily convenience of home fueling for the rare convenience of a quicker road trip.
Yup, see above. Since all I need a car for is long trips (often in winter), an FCEV is a better match for my needs at the moment than a BEV, as it may be for many people who frequently take longer road trips. Or it would be, once they build a station or two east of me, so that I can get to Yosemite and the east side of the Sierra and back.

Tesla's finally started construction of the Groveland SC, which once completed, along with the existing Mammoth Lakes SC will allow a Tesla to do the trip, with considerable extra inconvenience owing to Mammoth being too far south and needing to take a 30-55 mile or so round trip detour to charge.

GetOffYourGas said:
And then there is the question of the eventually-unsubsidized fuel costs for the trip. That goes both ways, btw. What if the Model X had to pay for electricity, and the Mirai had to pay for hydrogen? Well we know the answer today. We don't know the answer for 10 years from now, but we can reasonably guess that the Mirai will be more expensive.
Which is why I always say no one should be buying an FCEV at this time. Lease and let Toyota et al subsidize H2, until such time as H2 prices have come down to the same or less than gas. If that doesn't happen and FCEVs don't catch on, you're not stuck with an expensive driveway ornament.
 
GRA said:
Which is why I always say no one should be buying an FCEV at this time. Lease and let Toyota et al subsidize H2, until such time as H2 prices have come down to the same or less than gas. If that doesn't happen and FCEVs don't catch on, you're not stuck with an expensive driveway ornament.

Unlike FCEVs, some people can and should buy BEVs at this time. PHEVs too. Even 5 years ago, and BEVs are better and cheaper now.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-drive/culture/commuting/canadas-first-leaf-owner-remains-committed-five-years-on/article31745462/

If BEVs don't catch on, you have a nice commuter car that will save gasoline. Even if public charging disappears, you can charge at home. Which you are likely to do almost all the time, even if there is ample public charging. As the prices of BEVs have dropped along with the price of gasoline, even without rebates you can be breaking even, or even ahead... unless the price of oil rises.

http://www.thespec.com/news-story/6885340-expect-a-shock-at-the-pump-as-opec-cuts-oil-output/

US$4 per gallon gasoline will make the BEV look pretty sweet. Even without a price shock, $1.20 per litre already looks good when compared with $0.08 per kWh. $0.20 per litre equivalent, or less.

Of course, BEVs are not for everyone. I know of one person who is as bad of match for a BEV as you are. No commutes, only long distance drives.
 
Edmunds' report on the return trip from SLT to Santa Monica:
2016 Toyota Mirai: Close Finish in Hydrogen vs. Battery Contest
http://www.edmunds.com/toyota/mirai/2016/long-term-road-test/2016-toyota-mirai-close-finish-in-hydrogen-vs-battery-contest.html

Short version:
For the return voyage on our alt-fuel road trip from Santa Monica to Lake Tahoe, Dan Edmunds and I switch cars. This time, I'll be in our long-term 2016 Toyota Mirai and he'll take the 2016 Tesla Model X. . . .

The Tesla will be charting a different course. It will head south on I-395, a shorter route than taking I-5. It will do this because it can — there are Superchargers along I-395 [Sic. U.S. 395]. There are zero hydrogen stations, however, so the Mirai can't take the shortcut. This factor will clearly give the Tesla an advantage it didn't enjoy on the inbound leg.

What's more, the Mirai won't simply be returning the way it came. It used up enough range while driving in the Lake Tahoe area (after the completion of our Santa Monica to Lake Tahoe "sprint") that it needs to be refueled in Truckee. Truckee is not on the way back to Santa Monica, but it is closer than Sacramento, home of the next-closest hydrogen station.

So, the Tesla will be taking a shorter return trip and the Mirai will be taking a longer one. This arrangement more accurately reflects the current reality of alt-fuel motoring. Moreover, the lengths of the two cars' routes differ by about 90 miles according to the map. Considering that the Mirai beat the Tesla by 90 minutes on the inbound leg, the outbound contest should be much more even. . . .

Off we go. At 7:59 a.m., we depart Base Camp Hotel in South Lake Tahoe. Our routes diverge almost immediately as Dan peels off in town while I continue around the lake to reach Truckee. . . .

[Mirai fuels in Truckee, W. Sacramento, Harris Ranch (missed the exit and added 18 miles to the trip)]

At speed the Mirai is undramatic. Its ride comfort is better than the Tesla's, and its relatively compact dimensions make it feel tidier on the road. Rolling on skinny all-season tires, it has nothing like the handling and braking capability of the Tesla. But the driving experience is reassuringly normal.

I also find the Mirai's lack of gimcrackery refreshing. Its doors actually work as you expect, its windshield isn't a constant annoyance and its software isn't full of bugs. One of the few frustrations is its quaint, small touchscreen, which has Atari-like graphics compared to the Tesla's and will lawyer you into submission if you dare attempt to enter a navigation destination while moving. . . .

When I finally I turn down the ramp to our parking garage in Santa Monica, it's 4:25 p.m. No Tesla. The Mirai has triumphed once more. But how far away is Dan? . . . .

Dan's really close now. I run outside and a minute or so later he rolls past. I snap the above victory photo — timestamped 4:37 p.m. — and stroll down the parking ramp to swap stories.
The Model X report is here: http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-x/2016/long-term-road-test/2016-tesla-model-x-supercharger-shortcut-on-the-return-leg-from-lake-tahoe.html

[Model X charges in Mammoth Lakes (Car nav. wanted to stop and charge in Topaz Lake), Lone Pine, Mojave]

Here's Dan Edmunds' summary:

. . . Our Model X is a rolling math problem, complete with charts and graphs and apps and decisions. I'm always factoring in hills and wind and traffic and heat, and I'm trying to predict these factors an hour or so into the future. I find myself thinking thoughts along the lines of, "If I stay plugged in 5 minutes more maybe I can drive 5 mph faster. Assuming I can drive 5 mph faster, which represents the bigger time savings?"

The Mirai, on the other hand, is a normal car in that there's no strategy involved. You just gas (and I do mean gas) and go. Every stop is a full refill, and it takes 5 minutes no matter what — unless you're a newbie at a station and have to watch The Video, in which case it's 8 or 9 minutes. You can eat whatever and wherever you want, because there's no pressing need to eat whatever food is within walking distance of your filling station. You've got time to play with.

There's no doubt that hydrogen station availability is a problem, but that will be solved in the fullness of time. The northbound leg results showed us just how much smoother, faster and relaxing a hydrogen fuel cell car can be on a long road trip if there are stations to support it. . . .

Jay walks down the ramp to gloat. He was standing on the sidewalk snapping the above picture when I nosed into the garage. We compare notes and figure he's beaten me by 10 minutes. Close? Not in my book. I had an 87-mile head start with a full battery. Sure, I was held up here and there, but I'm sure Jay has similar stories. Fact is, Jay would have creamed me by two hours had there been a station in Lake Tahoe and just one other in Lone Pine.

Someday such stations will exist if this hydrogen concept has legs, which I'm thinking it does after this side-by-side road trip shootout. Build more stations in more places and I'm a convert. As for you automakers, do something about tank placement and trunk space. And let's put your best stylists on the case.
I've asked for the Mirai's MPkg, avg. speed and temp for each leg.
 
GRA said:
Here's Dan Edmunds' summary:

. . . Our Model X is a rolling math problem, complete with charts and graphs and apps and decisions. I'm always factoring in hills and wind and traffic and heat, and I'm trying to predict these factors an hour or so into the future. I find myself thinking thoughts along the lines of, "If I stay plugged in 5 minutes more maybe I can drive 5 mph faster. Assuming I can drive 5 mph faster, which represents the bigger time savings?"

The Mirai, on the other hand, is a normal car in that there's no strategy involved. You just gas (and I do mean gas) and go. Every stop is a full refill, and it takes 5 minutes no matter what — unless you're a newbie at a station and have to watch The Video, in which case it's 8 or 9 minutes. You can eat whatever and wherever you want, because there's no pressing need to eat whatever food is within walking distance of your filling station. You've got time to play with.

There's no doubt that hydrogen station availability is a problem, but that will be solved in the fullness of time.

That says it all! It's a simple and 'transparent' transition for the consumer, as has been the transition to hybrids.
 
smkettner said:
Simple and transparent as long as someone else pays for the fuel.
Yep. It's the classic drug-pusher sales model, but in this case both the pusher AND the government (taxpayer) are subsidizing the hidden costs.
 
RegGuheert said:
smkettner said:
Simple and transparent as long as someone else pays for the fuel.
Yep. It's the classic drug-pusher sales model, but in this case both the pusher AND the government (taxpayer) are subsidizing the hidden costs.
Sure are, just as the same groups are subsidizing the cost of recharging stations and in many cases electricity. Neither subsidy is sustainable long-term.
 
I respectfully disagree. Electricity is low enough cost that it very well could be a long term incentive at L2.

Mirai and hydrogen not so much. No shopping mall or employer is going to spend $$ two million $$ to provide expensive $$ hydrogen $$.
 
lorenfb said:
That says it all! It's a simple and 'transparent' transition for the consumer, as has been the transition to hybrids.



It won't be so "transparent" on their pocket books!

Will H2 ever be $2/gallon equivalent? I doubt that and even if it is going to be that cheap how many years will it take?

If H2 can't even compete with gasoline in terms of cost it sure as hell will never compete with cheap electricity used in BEVs!

Besides, what percentage of the population has extremely long commutes or goes on road trips on a regular basis? So for the majority of drivers there will be no "math problems" with a BEV because they're not driving that much on a daily basis anyway.

How many years will it take to have H2 stations all over the united states so that everyone could drive FCEVs? Imagine how much cheaper BEVs will be by the time this happens (if it ever does)! Range, battery energy density, performance and fast charging will continue improving all while prices continue to come down with BEVs. So if this hydrogen highway does get built in the U.S. it will take way too long, by that time BEVs will be leaps and bounds ahead of the competition! You may argue that FCEV tech will be evolving as well, that's true but it won't matter because everything depends on an H2 infrastructure being all throughout the U.S. The bottom line is it will take way too long and cost way too much money!
 
smkettner said:
I respectfully disagree. Electricity is low enough cost that it very well could be a long term incentive at L2.
So far, public for-profit charging remains govt. subsidized for construction, and in some cases also for the electricity (like the local college, which has a bunch of Chargepoint L2s at which I saw a pair of Model S as well as a 500e and PiP guzzling free electrons last Saturday). As it was the weekend, they weren't even paying for parking, and I'd be willing to bet that both Teslas, at least, belonged to local homeowners within walking distance who decided to charge on the College's dime instead of paying for their own electrons. Why on earth is this electricity being subsidized by a taxpayer-funded govt. agency, especially when the Chargepoints are fully capable of PoS payment? They used to have Clipper Creeks there, so there was at least an excuse for not imposing a fee with them.

smkettner said:
Mirai and hydrogen not so much. No shopping mall or employer is going to spend $$ two million $$ to provide expensive $$ hydrogen $$.
Why on earth would you put an H2 station at a shopping mall or an employer (other than one who has a fleet), when you can put them at the already existing fueling stations for cars with virtually identical operating and fueling characteristics, a business model which has been proven to work and has been acceptable to the public for more than a century? Which is exactly where H2 stations are being put, at existing gas stations. Anyone for whom a BEV meets their needs and has convenient, low cost home/work charging should be using one for commuting, local errands and whatever other trips it's suitable for. For everyone else who wants a ZEV, the only option is an FCEV. How quickly infrastructure and costs reduce between the two techs, along with public acceptance or lack of it, will determine which achieves mainstream success, or maybe both will, or neither.

No one claims that H2 is cost-effective compared to gasoline now, any more than public for-profit charging is. As has been noted what seems like hundreds of times now, unless sustainable H2 can be brought down in price to be competitive with gas, it won't succeed. Which is why no owner should make any long-term plans for FCEVs at this time, because future fueling costs are unknown. Lease for three years and see what the situation is at the end of that. Repeat as desired, if the same or similar offer is available, and the price hasn't yet reached that point. Or switch to an ICE, BEV, or PHEV as you wish, whatever works for you.
 
GRA said:
smkettner said:
Mirai and hydrogen not so much. No shopping mall or employer is going to spend $$ two million $$ to provide expensive $$ hydrogen $$.
Why on earth would you put an H2 station at a shopping mall or an employer (other than one who has a fleet), when you can put them at the already existing fueling stations for cars with virtually identical operating and fueling characteristics, a business model which has been proven to work and has been acceptable to the public for more than a century? .
Exactly my point. And yet some shopping centers and employers do have L2 charging. Some even free.
Why would they do this? Maybe it is a low cost incentive to shop a little longer or a minor cost to assist with zero emission commuting.
Some employers subsidize bus pass or provide showers to commute on bicycles for the same reasons.

Absolutely absurd to think the same for H2.
 
GRA said:
So far, public for-profit charging remains govt. subsidized for construction ...

No one claims that H2 is cost-effective compared to gasoline now, unlike BEVs with mostly home charging. Sure, there are people that don't fit that profile. BEVs can only double market share about 5 times or 32x current market share, before current limitations on public charging start to matter. Assuming, of course, that range doesn't improve anymore and public charging doesn't get a lot more common. I'd guess that both are likely to happen. Growth of BEVs would be much slower without subsidy, but is probably beyond the tipping point.

I don't see how Hydrogen gets to the tipping point. Cost of renewable electric power will always be less than 1/4 the price of renewable hydrogen.
 
WetEV said:
GRA said:
So far, public for-profit charging remains govt. subsidized for construction ...

No one claims that H2 is cost-effective compared to gasoline now, unlike BEVs with mostly home charging. Sure, there are people that don't fit that profile. BEVs can only double market share about 5 times or 32x current market share, before current limitations on public charging start to matter. Assuming, of course, that range doesn't improve anymore and public charging doesn't get a lot more common. I'd guess that both are likely to happen. Growth of BEVs would be much slower without subsidy, but is probably beyond the tipping point.

I don't see how Hydrogen gets to the tipping point. Cost of renewable electric power will always be less than 1/4 the price of renewable hydrogen.
That assumes that electrolysis is the only possible way to make renewable H2, and as has been detailed by many posts in the H2 thread, lots of R&D is being dedicated to photo-chemical and thermo-chemical H2 production; it's also being made from sewage and other biomass. It also ignores the fact at the moment, excess electricity from variable renewables which would otherwise have to be curtailed can also be used for generating H2, and it seems to be less expensive to do so than trying to store a similar quantity of energy in batteries at the moment. If mass battery storage becomes cost-effective the balance may change, but for now batteries still seem to be used almost exclusively for short-term grid regulation rather than mass storage, an indication that the latter is still not affordable. We're starting to see a few battery projects trying to go beyond stabilization, and I'll be keeping an eye on them to see how they do.
 
Toyota's employee Mirai giveaway must be over as the company delivered fewer than 70 Mirais for September despite the new dramatically lower public lease price, the reduced drive-off fee, and the CVRP rebates resuming.

It seems that Mirai demand is tepid.
 
mtndrew1 said:
Toyota's employee Mirai giveaway must be over as the company delivered fewer than 70 Mirais for September despite the new dramatically lower public lease price, the reduced drive-off fee, and the CVRP rebates resuming.

It seems that Mirai demand is tepid.
Perhaps, but as I mentioned in my post just before yours, the salesman told me they'd run out of 2016s to sell and had no idea when they'd get the next batch (presumably 2017s, to which the new lease prices apply). He said he himself had 5 customers on a waiting list for them. Course, he's a car salesman, so take it FWIW, but chatting with him over 40 minutes I didn't get the impression I get from many of them that he was the typical "what's it gonna take to put you in a car?" slimeball, subject to the joke that also extends to lawyers and politicians about how to tell if they're lying (A: Their lips are moving). He did mention that either his dealership or Toyota (my hearing sucks, so I missed which it was) gave employees another perk, one extra week of free rentals on top of the week per year that Toyota gives to all Mirai customers, for all those trips outside the state, or in-state areas where the fueling infrastructure hasn't yet reached.
 
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