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scottf200 said:
EVDRIVER said:
I believe there is a significant AP update that is going to be rolled out to some cars soon. The OTA updates are really great and it's great to see new features added and improvements made.
Starting yesterday 'it' has been rolled out on S/X AP2.0+ vehicles -- 2018.10.4 8bbdc66

Looks like a new Neural Network (NN) for object recognition that has been in beta for a while. Rollout has been pretty fast so far. Many discussions, common test routes being retested, and larger 'confidence' feel being touted. I did get the update tonight but have not tested it.


I hear the Lorenfb flash update is in that release, If you hit the TS twice it shows links to reposting alpha and vin delivery graphs. It only updates at the Tesla ECU level as we know everything else is blocked.
 
Another perspective on the Tesla M3 scam to generate needed cash. Oh sorry, I mean the Tesla M3 reservations.

Tesla has more than 400,000 reservations for its Model 3 vehicle.
However, those are not firm commitments to purchase. They are only refundable deposits.
What's important is how many of those reservations can be converted into sales.
I believe the number is around 50%.

For some reservation holders, it is now decision time. Do you go ahead with a $49,000 purchase or do you ask for your $1,000 deposit back? In the space of two years, people's circumstances often change. There are births, marriages, deaths, divorces, and job changes.
Many reservation holders may have been caught up in the hype at the time and made an impulse decision to place their $1,000 deposit, not really knowing whether they could afford the car.

Factor in the lack of a leasing option, which means that a $400/month lease payment now becomes a $900/month loan payment. Consider also that anyone wanting a base model car may have to wait another year, and factor in the increasing competition from other manufacturers.
Finally, consider all the reports of mediocre quality, like this one from Edmunds and backed up service centers, and it is easy to imagine many of the reservation being cancelled.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4156471-tesla-sales-count-reservations?auth_param=1adagi:1daivrp:5469c401c31fae08c5df1820374b80f3&uprof=44&dr=1

The key question is; How many reservations would the M3 generate, if most knew in 2016 that a $35K M3 would likely never be delivered?
Furthermore, how does the reservation debacle reflect on the integrity of Tesla corporate management, i.e. Elon, knowing that a $35K
M3 was unrealistic for a 2018 or ever delivery? And some want to naively compare Tesla to startups like Amazon or Apple. What a joke!
 
lorenfb said:
Another perspective on the Tesla M3 scam to generate needed cash. Oh sorry, I mean the Tesla M3 reservations.

Tesla has more than 400,000 reservations for its Model 3 vehicle.
However, those are not firm commitments to purchase. They are only refundable deposits.
What's important is how many of those reservations can be converted into sales.
I believe the number is around 50%.

For some reservation holders, it is now decision time. Do you go ahead with a $49,000 purchase or do you ask for your $1,000 deposit back? In the space of two years, people's circumstances often change. There are births, marriages, deaths, divorces, and job changes.
Many reservation holders may have been caught up in the hype at the time and made an impulse decision to place their $1,000 deposit, not really knowing whether they could afford the car.

Factor in the lack of a leasing option, which means that a $400/month lease payment now becomes a $900/month loan payment. Consider also that anyone wanting a base model car may have to wait another year, and factor in the increasing competition from other manufacturers.
Finally, consider all the reports of mediocre quality, like this one from Edmunds and backed up service centers, and it is easy to imagine many of the reservation being cancelled.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4156471-tesla-sales-count-reservations?auth_param=1adagi:1daivrp:5469c401c31fae08c5df1820374b80f3&uprof=44&dr=1

The key question is; How many reservations would the M3 generate, if most knew in 2016 that a $35K M3 would likely never be delivered?
Furthermore, how does the reservation debacle reflect on the integrity of Tesla corporate management, i.e. Elon, knowing that a $35K
M3 was unrealistic for a 2018 or ever delivery? And some want to naively compare Tesla to startups like Amazon or Apple. What a joke!


You mean your key question and your assumptions. Yes, an unvalidated joke. Once NRE costs are paid and economies of scale are reached it has to make profit.
 
EVDRIVER said:
lorenfb said:
Another perspective on the Tesla M3 scam to generate needed cash. Oh sorry, I mean the Tesla M3 reservations.

Tesla has more than 400,000 reservations for its Model 3 vehicle.
However, those are not firm commitments to purchase. They are only refundable deposits.
What's important is how many of those reservations can be converted into sales.
I believe the number is around 50%.

For some reservation holders, it is now decision time. Do you go ahead with a $49,000 purchase or do you ask for your $1,000 deposit back? In the space of two years, people's circumstances often change. There are births, marriages, deaths, divorces, and job changes.
Many reservation holders may have been caught up in the hype at the time and made an impulse decision to place their $1,000 deposit, not really knowing whether they could afford the car.

Factor in the lack of a leasing option, which means that a $400/month lease payment now becomes a $900/month loan payment. Consider also that anyone wanting a base model car may have to wait another year, and factor in the increasing competition from other manufacturers.
Finally, consider all the reports of mediocre quality, like this one from Edmunds and backed up service centers, and it is easy to imagine many of the reservation being cancelled.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4156471-tesla-sales-count-reservations?auth_param=1adagi:1daivrp:5469c401c31fae08c5df1820374b80f3&uprof=44&dr=1

The key question is; How many reservations would the M3 generate, if most knew in 2016 that a $35K M3 would likely never be delivered?
Furthermore, how does the reservation debacle reflect on the integrity of Tesla corporate management, i.e. Elon, knowing that a $35K
M3 was unrealistic for a 2018 or ever delivery? And some want to naively compare Tesla to startups like Amazon or Apple. What a joke!


You mean your key question and your assumptions. Yes, an unvalidated joke. Once NRE costs are paid and economies of scale are reached it has to make profit.

And the ongoing Tesla shill/apologist, as usual, responds with his unsupported prognostications and naivete. You are aware that the M3
gross profits are not only "burdened" with NRE but also with the SG&A (Sales & General Administration costs).

Been drinking with Elon and the guys from the Onion discussing Elon's comedy venture? Elon should do well as a comedian, based
on his history at Tesla responding to questions regarding forecasts, given to financial analysts over the years. Maybe if his avocation
changes, the Tesla Board will find a CEO who doesn't need to deceive shareholders and prospective EV buyers. His position as CEO over
the years has been laughable!
 
https://cs.stanford.edu/people/karpathy/
Bio. I am the Director of AI at Tesla, currently focused on perception for the Autopilot. Previously, I was a Research Scientist at OpenAI working on Deep Learning in Computer Vision, Generative Modeling and Reinforcement Learning. I received my PhD from Stanford, where I worked with Fei-Fei Li on Convolutional/Recurrent Neural Network architectures and their applications in Computer Vision, Natural Language Processing and their intersection. Over the course of my PhD I squeezed in two internships at Google where I worked on large-scale feature learning over YouTube videos, and in 2015 I interned at DeepMind and worked on Deep Reinforcement Learning. Together with Fei-Fei, I designed and taught a new Stanford class on Convolutional Neural Networks for Visual Recognition (CS231n). The class was the first Deep Learning course offering at Stanford and has grown from 150 enrolled in 2015 to 330 students in 2016, and 750 students in 2017.


0oPzzzd.jpg
 
Tesla keeps bungling this production ramp. I reserved last year because I expected a $35k well featured Tesla (they even said it would have auto drive--sorry, auto drive hardware :roll:). A reasonably appointed Tesla with auto drive even without federal credit would be a steal for $35k. But with the endless delays I won't get a nickel of federal, and to get a model 3 worth owning (the basic one has less features than cars costing 2/3rd as much) I'd need premium plus eap, so I'm out $45k, which feels too much for what the car is.

I haven't cancelled my reservation but I'll be surprised if I don't. Tentative planning now is I either buy out my current lease vehicle or commit to another manufacturer and come back to this question in 2021, although by then every manufacturer will be aggressively coming into the market and options will be numerous.
What's important is how many of those reservations can be converted into sales.
I believe the number is around 50%.
Wouldn't surprise me if it is lower than that, frankly. But I've known since last summer that a lot would cancel. $1k that you can get back, so all you lose is the interest on a grand. Virtually no risk and you get to tell people you have a model 3 reservation.

I really do believe Tesla was--let's say--"disingenuous" with the $35k. I put a reservation in with intent for the $35k. They start producing LR cars in mid 2017, but now all they care about is LR after LR, even though getting SR out the door would actually require slightly less resources (pack is smaller). Even early reservation holders will have to wait well over a year for the SR, while tesla sells as many of the expensive one as they can.

I think Tesla is BSing about its timeline on self driving, but one of the reasons I plan on keeping my reservation is the off chance they actually get this licked in the near future. I'd happily spend $50k on a model 3 if it had level 4 autonomy. I know they don't even have a good 3 yet, though. I mean that. Give me a car that let's me get from my house to work, even in good conditions without any weird scenarios, and I'll sign the dotted line right now.
 
scottf200 said:
https://cs.stanford.edu/people/karpathy/
Bio. I am the Director of AI at Tesla, currently focused on perception for the Autopilot. Previously, I was a Research Scientist at OpenAI working on Deep Learning in Computer Vision, Generative Modeling and Reinforcement Learning. I received my PhD from Stanford, where I worked with Fei-Fei Li on Convolutional/Recurrent Neural Network architectures and their applications in Computer Vision, Natural Language Processing and their intersection. Over the course of my PhD I squeezed in two internships at Google where I worked on large-scale feature learning over YouTube videos, and in 2015 I interned at DeepMind and worked on Deep Reinforcement Learning. Together with Fei-Fei, I designed and taught a new Stanford class on Convolutional Neural Networks for Visual Recognition (CS231n). The class was the first Deep Learning course offering at Stanford and has grown from 150 enrolled in 2015 to 330 students in 2016, and 750 students in 2017.


0oPzzzd.jpg
Here is the vid. It is exciting to know we're on the cusp of this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZI0RjcPt0c
 
EatsShootsandLeafs said:
Tesla keeps bungling this production ramp. I reserved last year because I expected a $35k well featured Tesla (they even said it would have auto drive--sorry, auto drive hardware :roll:). A reasonably appointed Tesla with auto drive even without federal credit would be a steal for $35k. But with the endless delays I won't get a nickel of federal, and to get a model 3 worth owning (the basic one has less features than cars costing 2/3rd as much) I'd need premium plus eap, so I'm out $45k, which feels too much for what the car is.
...
I really do believe Tesla was--let's say--"disingenuous" with the $35k. I put a reservation in with intent for the $35k. They start producing LR cars in mid 2017, but now all they care about is LR after LR, even though getting SR out the door would actually require slightly less resources (pack is smaller). Even early reservation holders will have to wait well over a year for the SR, while tesla sells as many of the expensive one as they can.
I agree. As I pointed out at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/might-order-my-3-soon-very-begrudgingly.110591/page-8#post-2616476, Elon at the Model 3 claimed deliveries would begin 2017 and that the price would be $35K w/o any specifics. It wasn't until much later did their FAQ say
Additional configurations, including the Model 3 with standard equipment for $35,000, will become available as production ramps, which we expect to be in November 2017.
Well, we're way past that and there's still no standard range version available and nothing available for $35K.

And then you have fanboys like this guy at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/might-order-my-3-soon-very-begrudgingly.110591/page-8#post-2616480 and https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/might-order-my-3-soon-very-begrudgingly.110591/page-8#post-2616528 slamming me and others for "entitlement" because there's no $35K car yet. :roll:
 
I will likely pass. People I respect say it sits low. I traded in my eGolgf since it sat too low. I had a C300 loaner and it sat too low but it was free.. You can put up with a lot if it is free.

I wish Tesla suggest but I would s want a basic car with the only the paint color as an option. It is likely that car will never be produced/ Currently they are wanting to max the options.

!k is a big deal to some but it is worth it to gamble with TESLA. The 1K is painless since it was on my credit card. I usually pay it off and there is usually over 2K.
 
cwerdna said:
It wasn't until much later did their FAQ say
Additional configurations, including the Model 3 with standard equipment for $35,000, will become available as production ramps, which we expect to be in November 2017.
Well, we're way past that and there's still no standard range version available and nothing available for $35K.

To be fair, they said a lot of other things about where they would be in November of 2017 that simply have not come true even yet. This whole ramp is taking them a whole lot longer than they expected, and you have to put the blame on them for setting such an unachievable goal and then sharing it publicly. But that is not the same as saying that it will never happen. It will likely happen around the time they achieve their 5000 units/week milestone, whenever that is. Is that going to be too late for people? Most certainly some people will be caught out by that.

Personally when I put down my reservation, even though I waited in line on 3/31, putting me relatively towards the front of the line, I did not expect to receive ANY vehicle until very late 2018. This was based on Tesla's track record, and I'm sorry if I don't feel as much sympathy for people that took Elon's estimates of the ramp as gospel. I'm actually in the opposite situation. I DO want the long range model, but given my expectations, I leased a car until Feb 2019. I expect I will be in the next invite batch for the Model 3 and so I will either have to defer for no good reason, or change my plans around for which car I replace.
 
EatsShootsandLeafs said:
scottf200 said:
https://cs.stanford.edu/people/karpathy/
Bio. I am the Director of AI at Tesla, currently focused on perception for the Autopilot. Previously, I was a Research Scientist at OpenAI working on Deep Learning in Computer Vision, Generative Modeling and Reinforcement Learning. I received my PhD from Stanford, where I worked with Fei-Fei Li on Convolutional/Recurrent Neural Network architectures and their applications in Computer Vision, Natural Language Processing and their intersection. Over the course of my PhD I squeezed in two internships at Google where I worked on large-scale feature learning over YouTube videos, and in 2015 I interned at DeepMind and worked on Deep Reinforcement Learning. Together with Fei-Fei, I designed and taught a new Stanford class on Convolutional Neural Networks for Visual Recognition (CS231n). The class was the first Deep Learning course offering at Stanford and has grown from 150 enrolled in 2015 to 330 students in 2016, and 750 students in 2017.

<snip>
Here is the vid. It is exciting to know we're on the cusp of this.
I just drove my AP2 X over 400 miles this weekend after having 25K AP1 miles on my previous X.

WOW, this new release is very impressive, slowing on curves, staying smoothly in the center of lanes at various speeds, driving through some towns. It is a big difference in 'feeling' a different confidence level ... and I thought my 25K AP1 miles were pretty good.
 
Via IEVS:
BMW M3 OWNER TEST DRIVES / REVIEWS TESLA MODEL 3
https://insideevs.com/bmw-m3-owner-test-drives-reviews-tesla-model-3/

. . . CB claims to be disliked on Tesla forums since he’s critical. His current and previous car ownership includes the F80 M3, F30 335i, and E92 333i. He also shares that he’s had an opportunity to drive nearly every car in the segment, with specific mention of the BMW 3 Series, C AMG45, Audi S4, Audi S5, and new Alfa Romeo Giulia.

So, what does CB have to share? He begins:

“Well, today I was able to borrow this baby and spent a day driving it on mountain roads, within San Francisco, and cruise it down 101. Here are my impressions. I’m going to score individual categories relative to other competitors in this class, so I won’t be rating the Model 3’s cost against a Civic, its luxury against an S class, or its handling against a 911.”

CB provides a fair amount of text related to each of his chosen categories, but let’s start with a breakdown of his scores:

  • Drivetrain (9/10)
    Steering (8/10)
    Suspension/Chassis (9.5/10)
    Interior Quality/Fit and Finish (5/10)
    Technology/User Interface (Exclude Auto Pilot) (2/10)
    Auto Pilot (10/10)

Despite the terrible tech score and marginal interior quality score, CB is impressed with the car overall. In fact, he may even buy one! Below are some key takeaways from his experience:

  • Instant torque makes the Model 3 a “star around town.” It beats all competitors in this aspect. However, at speeds over 55 mph, it’s not quite as impressive.

    Steering is well-weighted and provides great feedback. Weight gets heavier as turn-in increases, but it’s not as predictable as he’d hoped, which causes a lack of confidence when pushing the car hard.

    Suspension puts the Model 3 among the “cream of the top in this already sporty segment.” The Tesla’s extreme balance reminds CB of BMW’s best days.

    Steering wheel is ugly, though cabin materials are decent. The minimalist design is subjective, and build quality is very solid, but the interior quality can’t stand up to class leaders.

    $5,000 for Premium Upgrades is “outrageous.”

    The car is “very bare bone” in terms of tech features.

    User interface is high res and responsive, but still “a complete mess” for usability. CB thanked Elon Musk for Autopilot, which helps with the lack of a decent interface experience.

It seems CB is truly enamored with the Model 3’s Autopilot system. He shares:

“The best driver assist in this segment, bar none, end of story. Is it perfect? Not even close. Is it the best money currently can buy? By far. . . .”
 
The interior does suck for what it is "supposed to be" and they did that intentionally. My guess is his tech rating would be higher if he had more time and I'm surprised about the AP rating. Handling is quite good.
 
EVDRIVER said:
The interior does suck for what it is "supposed to be" and they did that intentionally. My guess is his tech rating would be higher if he had more time and I'm surprised about the AP rating. Handling is quite good.

Interesting, but subjective, based on a relatively short experience.
Some things are easy to get a feel for, others take longer.

As for AP, I wonder if he was in a car that had the 10.4 update? Supposedly it really improved AP.
 
Yes subjective, clearly biased by personal dirt impressions. I would give AP a 9 out if 10, interior a 6.5, “tech” a contingent 9 and the UI a 7.5 knowing that will soon be a 8 -9. Handling is top of the class and the awd version should prove to be unbelievable. I think the steering was underrated based on the fact it is EPS. Th ratio is fast and better than the s, replacing the factory tires alone will make a huge driving improvement.

Now the bad news, the car has defective drive systems, dying 12v batteries, and the entire model is based in bait and switch. So everyone should cancel now why they still can.
 
EVDRIVER said:
Now the bad news, the car has defective drive systems, dying 12v batteries, and the entire model is based in bait and switch. So everyone should cancel now why they still can.

Trying to move up the queue, eh? :lol:
 
Via GCR:
2018 Tesla Model 3 Long Range: first drive review of 310-mile electric car
https://www.greencarreports.com/new...irst-drive-review-of-less-costly-electric-car

I like this first line from the article, which I think accurately sums up what will be the different attitudes towards the two cars: “The Tesla Model S was a moment. The Model 3 is a product.”

. . . Our drive reassured us. The Model 3 is an eminently competent electric car that should make owners happy. If the company can fix what appear to be major quality problems, that is.

But times have changed, and the Model 3 does not emerge into a vacuum as the Tesla Model S did in July 2012.

That car was a revelation, a bolt of lightning from the sky. It was a car no one had conceived or built before. It was the rolling, driving demonstration of a future then widely dismissed by the global auto industry as impractical or impossible.

Soon it was paired with the first real high-speed charging network that gave electric cars the ability to make coast-to-coast drives in the U.S., and then other regions around the world. The shock waves from 2012 still reverberate.

Six years later, the Tesla Model 3 delivers fewer firsts. . . .
I fully expect that either the Model S or the 2nd gen Prius will ultimately be judged to be the most significant car of the first half of the 21st century, although the first car to get reliable L4 Autonomy and be available to the public may get in there.

Via IEVS:
TESLA PUSHES BACK AWD, LONG-RANGE MODEL 3 TO LATE 2018
https://insideevs.com/tesla-pushes-back-awd-long-range-model-3-late-2018/

. . . Others report that availability of the short-range, dual-motor Model 3 has been bumped back too. . . Rumors suggest that other lesser versions of the Model 3, like the standard battery with rear-wheel-drive, may get bumped back too, though we aren’t seeing this in the estimator or configurator tools as of right now.
 
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