Official Tesla Model 3 thread

[EVDRIVER]

What! You will buy a Tesla! It's pretty clear and logical why the full featured cars are being released first. They will sell entry level cars and there are so many reasons they are doing this in this order that make complete sense. This does not mean it's a scam or a trick. They have always delivered this way so why is that a shock? Tesla must make a profit to operate clearly but just because full featured cars are shipped first does not mean anything more than it meets their business model. In the future it only 5K people want SR cars then I would also hope they pull the plug on them but also know Tesla has a record of doing the right thing like selling small pack cars as promised at a loss by electronically derating them. Good luck with Nissan or others making good on something like that. So far Tesla has proved they care about customers, they even replaced a part on my car that was damaged and should never be covered under warranty, they come through more than any other car maker I have experienced and unlike Nissan they are not screwing people over with bad packs.

 

[lpickup]

then why doesn't
Tesla deliver a $35K M3 now? It would develop goodwill and threaten other BEV products, e.g. Leaf 2 & Bolt. Tesla would dominate the
BEV market!

a) Because they don't need to--they have more than enough backlog of people waiting for first production (or even HIGHER value-add such as AWD)
b) Because it makes more business sense to focus on higher profit margin. Goodwill is fine if you have the luxury to spread it, but as you are keen to point out, minimizing negative cash flow at this point would be the wiser move. BTW, Tesla will have no trouble dominating the BEV market even with a $49K BEV.

Since you, like most, likely assumed that Tesla would deliver the M3 based on reservation date placement, which is usually
the case for most all product reservation placements, where're the $35K M3 deliveries? Sorry if you're one of those waiting.
If a M3 were deliverable for $35K in the next 30 days, or ever, I and most all on MNL would buy one.

Nope. First of all it was fully disclosed that the long range would be produced first. If people felt they couldn't live with that, they were more than welcome to cancel their reservations on the morning of 4/1/16. And me, personally, I've always planned on the long range model anyway, and furthermore, I didn't hide my head in the sand like it seems the bears have and believe for one minute that just because Elon said in March of 2016 that he'd be making 10,000 vehicles per week at the end of 2017 that that was actually going to happen. Even though I waited in line to put down my reservation on 3/31/16 I figured best case it would be late 2018 before I got my car. I even have a lease that doesn't run out until Feb 2019 because I felt that way, which now I'm "stuck" with because I actually do have my invite and could have a Model 3 in probably 6 weeks if I wanted it (I will probably wait for June delivery). To my estimation, Tesla is actually six months AHEAD of schedule.

I agree, Elon does himself no favors by promising such unobtainable targets. But if you step back and look at the big picture, missing those targets means almost nothing in terms of the eventual success of Tesla. They WILL get to the point of producing 2500, then 5000, and then eventually 10,000 vehicles per week. They WILL get to the point of offering AWD. And yes, they WILL get to the point of releasing a $35K Model 3. And whatever delays there have been almost doesn't even matter, because GM and Nissan and VW and BMW, etc. still do not offer an EV that most of the general public would be willing to buy, for the simple reason that they (a) don't charge fast enough for road trips and (b) don't have a competitive charging station network.

I'm sure GM has picked up a few sales, as will Nissan, from people that just couldn't wait any longer. But big picture wise, once Model 3 is fully ramped, deliveries of Model 3 will totally dwarf the competition.

 

[lpickup]

All I can see is that Musk is putting a bait and switch on the public. He made a big name for himself with the miniscule production of the Tesla cars.

Please define minuscule. It seems like you have a different definition than me.

In the US, GM had a very good December 2017, selling 5201 EVs (and that's counting 1937 Volts, not even a true BEV). Care to guess how many times Tesla has exceeded that record-breaking month by GM, including that same month when they sold 9335? (it's more than 6, less than 8)

Oh, maybe you are referring to the Model 3 specifically. Well everyone is well aware that the ramp is happening much slower than Elon expected (shouldn't be a surprise to anyone that knows the history of Tesla), but the thing is, it's continuing to grow. Feb estimated sales were 2485, a mark beat 4 times by the Chevy Bolt and 9 times by the Nissan LEAF (we have to go back to 2014 and 2015 there though). If we allow the Volt, that's another 7 times, again going WAY back (plus a small burst when the Gen 2 came out).

We'll know for sure in a few days, but the PESSIMISTIC consensus is that Tesla will deliver over 3600 Model 3's in March. Well the Volt sold 3691 in December of 2016, but other than that, 3600 Model 3's in March would put it in the top 2 of monthly sales (excluding the Tesla Model S and X of course!) And what about when the ramp continues? (and it will) April alone should set the new mark for EV deliveries in a month by a long shot. By the end of June, I believe that Tesla Model 3 sales will easily be 2X of the next largest producer.

Oh, well monthly sales doesn't tell the whole story? Okay, how about we look at 2017 as a whole. 50K sales for Tesla vs 44K for GM, 20-21K for Toyota, BMW and Ford (mostly PHEVs in this bunch), and then 11K for Nissan (getting back to BEVs).

Oh, but those are US sales, what about global sales?

Well, the Nissan LEAF is the world's best selling EV. In 2014 they managed to hit 60K sales globally, but fell to 45K in 2017. Hmmm...Tesla's minuscule production managed over 100K global sales in 2017.

So again, please define minuscule for me.

 

[lorenfb]

then why doesn't
Tesla deliver a $35K M3 now? It would develop goodwill and threaten other BEV products, e.g. Leaf 2 & Bolt. Tesla would dominate the
BEV market!

You "swallowed the hook"!

b) Because it makes more business sense to focus on higher profit margin. Goodwill is fine if you have the luxury to spread it, but as you are keen to point out, minimizing negative cash flow at this point would be the wiser move. BTW, Tesla will have no trouble dominating the BEV market even with a $49K BEV.

Yes, yes, that's what I've been posting for the last nine months. Have you been without access to the forum?
So you now agree that Tesla needs to attempt profitability every quarter. Hopefully others will understand that!

Look, you can't have it both ways! It was presented in this thread that Tesla doesn't need to make a profit and possibly could operate in
perpetuity without producing any profits, as it's always developing "disruptive products" not like Apple who has become a "laggard" as
a growth company. The logic is not that difficult to understand, i.e. does Tesla need to generate a profit by delivering M3s at about
$50K or higher versus delivering M3s at $35K and losing money by delivering to those who waited in line two years ago and "loaned"
Tesla over $400M in the agregate? If so, then Tesla needs to attempt profitability every quarter and that those who believe otherwise are naive.
Again, sorry for those that Elon gave the middle finger to, when it can time to deliver their $35K M3.

 

[EVDRIVER]

False argument. Selling higher margin goods first does not mean lower margin items have no profit, or will not have profit, or is some scam. Please stop refuting business 101 practices and trying to use that to justify your conspiracy theories.



"Yes, yes, that's what I've been posting for the last nine months. Have you been without access to the forum?
So you now agree that Tesla needs to attempt profitability every quarter. Hopefully others will understand that!"

Hilarious quote at so many levels! Please Lorenfb, please save us from our ignorance, you WILL show us all the way! Don't give up the hope.....

 

[lpickup]

then why doesn't
Tesla deliver a $35K M3 now? It would develop goodwill and threaten other BEV products, e.g. Leaf 2 & Bolt. Tesla would dominate the
BEV market!

You "swallowed the hook"!

Whatever...I will be sitting in a Model 3 that is actually capable of making the long distance (800 miles each way) trip I take every July rather than leaving my LEAF--that after one year has already lost a capacity bar and can't really go more than 150 miles away from home--at home and having to burn gas the whole way. Swallowed the hook? Guilty! Explain to me what the downside is.

b) Because it makes more business sense to focus on higher profit margin. Goodwill is fine if you have the luxury to spread it, but as you are keen to point out, minimizing negative cash flow at this point would be the wiser move. BTW, Tesla will have no trouble dominating the BEV market even with a $49K BEV.

Yes, yes, that's what I've been posting for the last nine months. Have you been without access to the forum?
So you now agree that Tesla needs to attempt profitability every quarter. Hopefully others will understand that!

Look, you can't have it both ways![/quote]

No, YOU can't have it both ways. You can't complain that Tesla will never make money and then complain that they will "never" release the least profitable version of their car. They are making a business decision to take the path that will get them over the hump of the ramp with the least loss of cash, and then they will follow up with the base model. It's good business sense. Sorry you can't seem to grasp that.

 

[lorenfb]

Whatever...I will be sitting in a Model 3 that is actually capable of making the long distance (800 miles each way) trip I take every July rather than leaving my LEAF--that after one year has already lost a capacity bar and can't really go more than 150 miles away from home--at home and having to burn gas the whole way.

That's great! I'm sure you'll truly enjoy your M3. Like the MS, it'll be for the most part a fine vehicle. It would be nice to have a much
longer range BEV than my Leaf now at 61K miles & 50Ahrs, and not having to find a QC for trips of 100 miles or less. There're not
presently many BEV choices at less than $40K when considering a TCO versus an ICEV/HICEV. After owning a BEV, though, who would
own another non-BEV, given all maintenance costs and headaches of an ICEV/HICEV.

 

[RegGuheert]

We'll know for sure in a few days, but the PESSIMISTIC consensus is that Tesla will deliver over 3600 Model 3's in March.

I'm pretty sure that is both the US number as well as the global number. In spite of beginning shipments months after the Model 3, Nissan sold over over 3X as many LEAFs globally in February as Tesla sold Model 3s and I expect they will again sell approximately 3X as many LEAFs as Tesla sells Model 3s this month.

It's not at all clear to me that the Tesla Model 3 will outsell the Nissan LEAF globally for the entire calendar year 2018. In fact, it remains to be seen if Tesla can deliver more Model 3s in ANY month in 2018 than Nissan delivers LEAFs during the same month.

Simply put, a large backlog is not the same thing as large sales.

 

[lpickup]

We'll know for sure in a few days, but the PESSIMISTIC consensus is that Tesla will deliver over 3600 Model 3's in March.

I'm pretty sure that is both the US number as well as the global number. In spite of beginning shipments months after the Model 3, Nissan sold over over 3X as many LEAFs globally in February as Tesla sold Model 3s and I expect they will again sell approximately 3X as many LEAFs as Tesla sells Model 3s this month.

It's not at all clear to me that the Tesla Model 3 will outsell the Nissan LEAF globally for the entire calendar year 2018. In fact, it remains to be seen if Tesla can deliver more Model 3s in ANY month in 2018 than Nissan delivers LEAFs during the same month.

Simply put, a large backlog is not the same thing as large sales.

Fair enough. But consider that

(a) Nissan has multiple established factories that they can build the LEAF out of (and as much as you can claim that they "just started" shipments a few months ago, let's be honest here that LEAF 2.0 is not a major departure from LEAF 1.0, unlike the Model 3 that is a brand new platform.

(b) We really don't know how committed Nissan is to really pushing the envelope when it comes to generating demand and building to it. In the early days of LEAF 1, Carlos Ghosn spoke big about his plans for growing the LEAF program. What happened? Was it lack of marketing? Was it lack of manufacturing commitment? Either way, the huge plans for the LEAF never materialized. I do hope that LEAF 2 will enjoy far more success than it's predecessor, but at the moment I am quite skeptical (and also personally soured on their battery tech, which I really think is going to come back and hurt them).

(c) It sounds like the consensus is that Nissan will be able to sell 10,000/month. Tesla's goal is to start producing 10,000/month starting next month, climbing to 20,000/month in "2Q" (I don't think we'll see evidence of that until around August), and eventually 40,000/month. And while it's true that a backlog is not the same thing as sales, in the US anyway I don't really see the competition as offering the package that I think potential Model 3 buyers (and more importantly reservation holders) are looking for. But sure, let's assume even 50% of reservations don't pan out. That's still over twice was Nissan hopes to sell during a year.

I honestly think the only thing holding back Tesla is the ability to make the cars, and for sure, the ramp has been painfully slow to watch. But there is progress, and it's not like the company is simply going to say "well, this is hard and erodes our other businesses, so let's focus more on our other products". They have no choice but to push through on the ramp.

The caveats to the above are:

(a) Yes, the lack of a base Model 3 for the next 2-3 quarters will certainly win over some customers not willing to wait to Bolt and LEAF 2.
(b) The LEAF 2 is a much better fit in Europe where travel distances are not great and there is a far better CHAdeMO charging network
(c) The LEAF 2 is an excellent fit for their home country of Japan. I imagine the LEAF will outsell the Model 3 by at least 5:1 in Japan (maybe 10:1).

 

[RegGuheert]

(a) Nissan has multiple established factories that they can build the LEAF out of (and as much as you can claim that they "just started" shipments a few months ago, let's be honest here that LEAF 2.0 is not a major departure from LEAF 1.0, unlike the Model 3 that is a brand new platform.

One thing that Nissan does (and that all large automotive manufacturers do) is to build factories with manufacturing lines that are NOT model-specific. Nissan's lines can handle as many as six different vehicles on the same line *simultaneously*, even vehicles which are based on different platforms. This approach has the drawback of constraining the vehicle assembly procedure to match the capabilities of the manufacturing lines. It has the benefit of providing a very-well-understood and -optimized manufacturing capability for each new vehicle which is designed. It also minimizes capital-equipment expenditures, since manufacturing lines are VERY expensive.

Tesla now has three vehicles which they manufacture and has chosen to build the Model S and the Model X on the same assembly line. But they chose to build the Model 3 on its own line, assumedly because it will be built in such high numbers that it will justify its own line. Also, I assume they wanted to take the opportunity to better-optimize the assembly line versus what was done with the Models S and X.

So the challenge that Tesla has created for itself is that not only are they developing and debugging a brand new vehicle platform, but they are developing and debugging a brand new assembly line at the same time. The result of this approach is clear for all to see: low production numbers and high defect rates so far.

Will Tesla be able to overcome these issues? Sure. How long will it take? The only thing we can be reasonably well-assured of is that it will take longer than Elon Musk says it will take. Probably much longer.

(b) We really don't know how committed Nissan is to really pushing the envelope when it comes to generating demand and building to it. In the early days of LEAF 1, Carlos Ghosn spoke big about his plans for growing the LEAF program. What happened?

I'll answer that: Nissan did not meet Carlos Ghosn's projections, but they are currently building the most-successful electric vehicle the world has ever known, both in turns of total vehicle sales to date and in terms of global monthly sales rates.

(c) It sounds like the consensus is that Nissan will be able to sell 10,000/month.

No one cares about "consensus". Nissan will sell as many LEAFs around the world as they can. I will not be surprised to see 12,000 LEAFs sold THIS month and that number could steadily grow through the next couple of years if the positive reviews continue. That's approximately 4,000 LEAFs built in each of their factories and sold in each of their main markets starting from now. I see no reason why they cannot sustain that number going forward as they build the vehicle's reputation. Success breeds success and I think Nissan's three regions will each build off the success achieved by the others AND I think US Nissan dealers will see that they FINALLY have a vehicle which will appeal much more to the masses than did its bulbous predecessor.

I do expect the 40-kWh LEAFs to have very-rapid battery degradation, but I do not expect that news to come out for at least two more years, at which point the 60-kWh LEAFs will be available which likely (and hopefully) will not have the same issue.

The point is that there is a HUGE addressable worldwide market for the new version of the LEAF and Nissan is positioned to be able to manufacture as many vehicles as are needed to meed the demand.

Tesla's goal is to start producing 10,000/month starting next month, climbing to 20,000/month in "2Q" (I don't think we'll see evidence of that until around August), and eventually 40,000/month.

Let's be clear: Tesla will NOT produce and deliver 10,000 Model 3s in April 2018. The question that needs to be answered is, "When will they manage to build and sell 10,000 Model 3s in a single month?" No one knows, because they are fighting so many fires at the same time right now.

Once Tesla passes the 10,000/month threshold with the Model 3, then let's come back and discuss 20,000/month.

And while it's true that a backlog is not the same thing as sales, in the US anyway I don't really see the competition as offering the package that I think potential Model 3 buyers (and more importantly reservation holders) are looking for.

Not everyone WANTS a car with a stiff suspension and rocket-like performance.

I also expect the appeal of the Supercharger network will soon lose its luster as the lines continue to grow and the costs grow as a direct result. Most vehicle owners will eventually come to realize that an EV that is almost-exclusively charged at home meets over 99% of their needs, making the charging network much less of a consideration.

But sure, let's assume even 50% of reservations don't pan out. That's still over twice was Nissan hopes to sell during a year.

Sure, and it's also probably way more than Tesla is capable of building in a year. Again, that backlog does not in any way ensure the Tesla Model 3 will outsell the Nissan LEAF, now or in the future.

I honestly think the only thing holding back Tesla is the ability to make the cars, and for sure, the ramp has been painfully slow to watch. But there is progress, and it's not like the company is simply going to say "well, this is hard and erodes our other businesses, so let's focus more on our other products". They have no choice but to push through on the ramp.

I will take a minor contention with that. Let me rephrase that statement: "The only thing holding back Tesla is the ability to make the Model 3 PROFITABLY." If they cannot build their highest-volume product profitably, they will NOT be able to build it long-term.

 

[lorenfb]

"The only thing holding back Tesla is the ability to make the Model 3 PROFITABLY." If they cannot build their highest-volume product profitably, they will NOT be able to build it long-term.

Good summary! The essence of what some have said since the M3 was announced two years ago.

 

[edatoakrun]

"The only thing holding back Tesla is the ability to make the Model 3 PROFITABLY." If they cannot build their highest-volume product profitably, they will NOT be able to build it long-term.

One more minor detail...

TSLA needs to SELL model 3's in very high volume, AND at very high prices, something close to the ~500k per year at ~$50k average price per 3 it has proposed, to produce the huge profits it has promised investors.

Just to stop losing money, TSLA needs to sell very large numbers of 3s, at very high average prices...and NOT by selling them for ~$35,000.

The ultimate model 3 demand at non-competitive prices simply has never been there to meet the delusional TSLA vision.

 

[EVDRIVER]

Please site this evidence of lack of demand and the balance sheet for ROI.

 

[lpickup]

Will Tesla be able to overcome these issues? Sure. How long will it take? The only thing we can be reasonably well-assured of is that it will take longer than Elon Musk says it will take. Probably much longer.

Agreed (with this snippet and the rest that Tesla created their own problems). I certainly take everything Elon says with a grain of salt. Some things he is just plain wrong about.

But I do think, and the rest of Tesla management is more or less on board with this, that we are actually getting close to 2500/week and 5000/week. Nobody actually knows when these milestones will be hit, but I put the probability fairly high in the next two quarters. Just my opinion I guess.

No one cares about "consensus". Nissan will sell as many LEAFs around the world as they can. I will not be surprised to see 12,000 LEAFs sold THIS month and that number could steadily grow through the next couple of years if the positive reviews continue.

And that's your opinion. I suppose we will have to wait and see how it plays out. I would really like to see Nissan greatly expand their role in the EV world, but I feel that they sat on LEAF 1 for far too long and now need to play catch up. Plus, like I said, I am still skeptical of their true commitment to EVs. But I'm willing to keep an open mind.

I do expect the 40-kWh LEAFs to have very-rapid battery degradation, but I do not expect that news to come out for at least two more years, at which point the 60-kWh LEAFs will be available which likely (and hopefully) will not have the same issue.

But if that's indeed true (I still hold out some hope that they've learned their lesson), then will people be willing to believe that with their 4th generation battery they FINALLY managed to solve their battery degradation issues and buy a 60kWh on faith? It's not all about active cooling--you need a resistant battery chemistry too, and I have been unfortunately reminded that even their 2nd generation 30kWh pack did not solve that.

The point is that there is a HUGE addressable worldwide market for the new version of the LEAF and Nissan is positioned to be able to manufacture as many vehicles as are needed to meed the demand.

Able, yes. Willing????

Once Tesla passes the 10,000/month threshold with the Model 3, then let's come back and discuss 20,000/month.

Agreed. My point is, though, that Tesla has no reason to stop at 10K/month or even 20K/month. Their stated eventual goal is 40K/month and they have no reason to back off on that. Unless demand falls off a cliff (and maybe this is your point), the only question is how long it will take. And sure, it will take longer than Elon says it will. But I don't think it's infinitely long.

And while it's true that a backlog is not the same thing as sales, in the US anyway I don't really see the competition as offering the package that I think potential Model 3 buyers (and more importantly reservation holders) are looking for.

Not everyone WANTS a car with a stiff suspension and rocket-like performance.

I was referring mainly to a gasoline car-like range and acceptable re-charge times. Currently Tesla is the only game in town that gets close for distance travel.

I also expect the appeal of the Supercharger network will soon lose its luster as the lines continue to grow and the costs grow as a direct result. Most vehicle owners will eventually come to realize that an EV that is almost-exclusively charged at home meets over 99% of their needs, making the charging network much less of a consideration.

I do think this is true, that people will learn that they should charge at home.

The problem is that people occasionally need to travel outside of their vehicle's range and will want a vehicle capable of distance travel. First-time EV buyers with a second gas car can maybe get buy without it. And sure, that's a lot of people. But even among those people, I've found that they would still be hesitant to buy a vehicle they could not use on a trip, even if that's only 1% of their use and they have other options.

Yes, the cost and capacity of the SC network will deter users from clogging them up unnecessarily. But it's still a very attractive safety net that most people will almost never need to use, but will like to have.

But sure, let's assume even 50% of reservations don't pan out. That's still over twice was Nissan hopes to sell during a year.

Sure, and it's also probably way more than Tesla is capable of building in a year. Again, that backlog does not in any way ensure the Tesla Model 3 will outsell the Nissan LEAF, now or in the future.

Okay, so on the Nissan side then, what guarantees are there that it will outsell the Model 3? I mean I suppose you could say the cost differential, but by the same token, look at how well the far more expensive S and X have sold. It's surprising to even me how much people are willing to spend on a desirable car. Yes, there is a market niche for sub $30K vehicles, and the LEAF certainly owns that. The Bolt probably ownes $30-40K. I think the $40K+ segment is probably larger than even I imagine.

Let me rephrase that statement: "The only thing holding back Tesla is the ability to make the Model 3 PROFITABLY." If they cannot build their highest-volume product profitably, they will NOT be able to build it long-term.

Yes, and no. Lack of profit at this time on the Model 3 does not hold them back in the short term. They still have cash and the ability to raise cash to get them up the profitability ramp, if it's done in a reasonable amount of time. Yes, there is always the possibility that the clock runs out. But as far as current impediments, they have already mostly invested in the assets that should take them to 20K/month. Now it's a mainly a matter of getting those assets working as designed and ramping volume to get better volume pricing on supplies. Profitability may gate their progress to 40K/month, but as you said previously, we can save that discussion for when they achieve 20K/month.

BTW, thanks for the thoughtful discussion.

 

[RegGuheert]

Plus, like I said, I am still skeptical of their true commitment to EVs. But I'm willing to keep an open mind.

As someone who traveled to Yokohama twice as part of the LEAF Advisory Board, I have to say that Carlos Ghosn is *absolutely* committed to EVs. It is HIS vision which we are seeing playing out at that company. HE is pushing it from the top, both at Nissan and at Renault. That's probably why the Nissan-Renault Alliance was the top-seller of EVs of any OEM group in 2017. But unlike Elon Musk, he doesn't have the luxury of having his entire team being people who were hand-picked to focus ONLY on EVs. With the exception of the executives who are tasked specifically with the LEAF, Nissan's executives have a much broader spectrum of products that they are concerned with. That is REAL inertia which takes real time and effort to change. It also inevitably entails real compromises in the products. But there are benefits in there, as well.

I agree that the new LEAF is about two years behind when I thought it should come out and about one year behind when I thought it WOULD come out, but I feel the end result is quite an attractive compromise between functionality and price. Some of the technology is quite surprising to me. For instance, I thought e-Pedal was a dumb gimmick when I first heard about it, but I don't think I have read a single review from anyone who didn't really like it or didn't flat-out love it.

BTW, thanks for the thoughtful discussion.

Thanks to you, as well. I find it fascinating to watch this play out. And, frankly, I am a bit surprised that I am sitting here typing things like "The 2018 Nissan LEAF might outsell the 2018 Tesla Model 3." Only time will tell.

 

[EVDRIVER]

Nissan needs to hire more progressive product managers outside their culture, this would help. They are still following others and not exactly as well as they could. I would be curious how much regen is lost with the e-peddle vs using higher regen for a longer period. Nissan did not do regen well before and never had a good braking system blend implementation, they are very conservative so using the brakes more to blend the regen gives a full stop with one pedal but my guess is they leave more regen on the table vs other EVs.

 

[EVDRIVER]

Whatever...I will be sitting in a Model 3 that is actually capable of making the long distance (800 miles each way) trip I take every July rather than leaving my LEAF--that after one year has already lost a capacity bar and can't really go more than 150 miles away from home--at home and having to burn gas the whole way.

That's great! I'm sure you'll truly enjoy your M3. Like the MS, it'll be for the most part a fine vehicle. .

The M3 has the most efficient EV motor made today, solid state architecture with no fuses, truly redundant safety systems like an aircraft, full autonomous hardware in every car, class leading performance and handling, the best and only presently viable national charge network, the highest crash safety, etc, etc. I would say it is likely more than just "fine" and I still think it's funny to compare generic features to another EV of similar price. I think the safety of the Tesla line alone is very high on the value proposition list considering todays drivers out there.

 

[lorenfb]

I expect they will again sell approximately 3X as many LEAFs as Tesla sells Model 3s this month.

It's not at all clear to me that the Tesla Model 3 will outsell the Nissan LEAF globally for the entire calendar year 2018. In fact, it remains to be seen if Tesla can deliver more Model 3s in ANY month in 2018 than Nissan delivers LEAFs during the same month.

And, frankly, I am a bit surprised that I am sitting here typing things like "The 2018 Nissan LEAF might outsell the 2018 Tesla Model S." Only time will tell.

Did you intend to say "Tesla Model 3" in your last post, given what your other post stated? The MS is not expected to have significant growth
in 2018 over 2017 (~ 50K).

 

[RegGuheert]

Did you intend to say "Tesla Model 3" in your last post, given what your other post stated? The MS is not expected to have significant growth in 2018 over 2017 (~ 50K).

Yes. Thanks for the correction. I will edit my post...

 

[EVDRIVER]

It is possible LEAF sales go up rapidly as they always do with a new model then drop after the must have buyers get them. Since this model is yet another bridge model I see many people waiting again for a longer range model . If Nissan had a 200 mile (TMS) LEAF now things would be different.