smkettner
Posts: 7203
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2010 10:13 pm
Delivery Date: 26 Feb 2014
Location: Orange County, CA

Re: I've joined the 7 bars club

Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:20 am

I believe today is the last day to order and receive your Tesla in 2018 to get the full $7,500 tax credit.
1 bar lost at 21,451 miles, 16 months.
2 bar lost at 35,339 miles, 25 months.
LEAF traded at 45,400 miles for a RAV4-EV
I-Pace on order for end of 2018 delivery

WetEV
Posts: 2345
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: I've joined the 7 bars club

Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:51 am

SageBrush wrote:How much did you pay for the first LEAF and how long until you bought another ?


28k after tax breaks, and 2 years. Became filling of sandwich on I405, totaled by insurance.

SageBrush wrote:How much did you pay for the second LEAF and how long do you think it will be until it does not meet your present needs ?


Less than 2k after tax breaks and insurance. I drove a new car, LEAF #1, for two years for less than $100 per month, and less than 10 cents per mile.

How long will I own current LEAF? Can't tell. Might be quite a while. Battery should last another 6 or more years, based on the loss over the first 4 1/2 years and 45k miles. Might upgrade to longer range to eliminate any need for DCQC stops on the roughly twice a month longer trips.

SageBrush wrote:What other cars do you keep to supplement the LEAF ?


A convertible. There isn't a realistic electric convertible, or the wife would have bought one by now.

SageBrush wrote:The Tesla value is in not having to keep an ICE around, and having tech that will last a long time.


There is no advantage in a Tesla for me.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

lorenfb
Posts: 1845
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: I've joined the 7 bars club

Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:34 am

garsh wrote:
Dooglas wrote:Remind me of the out-the-door price for a Tesla S or a Tesla 3 these days.
Model 3 starts at $49k currently, but the $35k version should be available early next year.



Amazing, that some still believe this!
Leaf SL MY 9/13: 70K miles, 49 Ahrs, 5.1 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 charges to 100% > 1000, max battery temp < 95F (35C), min discharge point > 20 Ahrs

Oils4AsphaultOnly
Posts: 491
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2015 4:09 pm
Delivery Date: 20 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 313890
Location: Arcadia, CA

Re: I've joined the 7 bars club

Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:32 pm

lorenfb wrote:
garsh wrote:
Dooglas wrote:Remind me of the out-the-door price for a Tesla S or a Tesla 3 these days.
Model 3 starts at $49k currently, but the $35k version should be available early next year.



Amazing, that some still believe this!


don't worry lorenfb, in 3 months you can either say you told us so, or eat crow. the time is coming soon.
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
Date - Miles / GIDs:
May '17 - 7300 mi / 363
Feb '18 - 20.5k mi / 333

RonDawg
Posts: 2872
Joined: Sat Jan 12, 2013 3:46 am
Delivery Date: 11 Jan 2013
Leaf Number: 027089
Location: SoCal

Re: I've joined the 7 bars club

Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:51 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
garsh wrote:Model 3 starts at $49k currently, but the $35k version should be available early next year.



Amazing, that some still believe this!


don't worry lorenfb, in 3 months you can either say you told us so, or eat crow. the time is coming soon.


I have a couple of co-workers who put in deposits for the $35k Model 3 on Day One. As late as last Spring, they were promised that their cars would be delivered to them by the end of Summer 2018, maybe end of July. That time has come and gone. One ended up upgrading to the bigger battery, the other is still waiting. So there's reason to be skeptical.

I'm in the "I'll believe it when I see it" camp.
Blue Ocean 2012 Leaf SV, lost that 1st bar at 34 months/26,435 miles. Lease returned 2 months later. Final LeafStat figures: 225 Gids, 17.44 kWH, SOC 91.89%, SOH 82.36%, 69.49% HX, 54.57 Ahr, battery temp 61.8 F.
Now driving a 2015 VW eGolf SEL.

smkettner
Posts: 7203
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2010 10:13 pm
Delivery Date: 26 Feb 2014
Location: Orange County, CA

Re: I've joined the 7 bars club

Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:28 pm

I also believe the base 3 is still coming. Ramp up just took longer than expected. Tesla needs the money from the top end first.

Much better value than LEAF.
1 bar lost at 21,451 miles, 16 months.
2 bar lost at 35,339 miles, 25 months.
LEAF traded at 45,400 miles for a RAV4-EV
I-Pace on order for end of 2018 delivery

garsh
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 5:27 am
Delivery Date: 05 Apr 2012
Location: Pittsburgh PA

Re: I've joined the 7 bars club

Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:44 am

cwerdna wrote:"$35K" version was originally supposed to be available to order Nov 2017 (https://web.archive.org/web/20170731003 ... ations-faq).
Yep.

We all know that Tesla has never been able to keep a deadline (sorry - an "aspirational goal"). But they've always delivered the vehicles eventually. And when they do, they're really good, and keep getting better.

lorenfb wrote:Amazing, that some still believe this!

Which part? That it will be available early next year, or that they'll make it at all?
2012 Black SV, 7 bars, 100,000 miles

lorenfb
Posts: 1845
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: I've joined the 7 bars club

Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:30 am

garsh wrote:
cwerdna wrote:"$35K" version was originally supposed to be available to order Nov 2017 (https://web.archive.org/web/20170731003 ... ations-faq).
Yep.

We all know that Tesla has never been able to keep a deadline (sorry - an "aspirational goal"). But they've always delivered the vehicles eventually. And when they do, they're really good, and keep getting better.

lorenfb wrote:Amazing, that some still believe this!

Which part? That it will be available early next year, or that they'll make it at all?


Both! The M3 at $35K will not be profitable for Tesla, given its overhead.
Leaf SL MY 9/13: 70K miles, 49 Ahrs, 5.1 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 charges to 100% > 1000, max battery temp < 95F (35C), min discharge point > 20 Ahrs

WetEV
Posts: 2345
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: I've joined the 7 bars club

Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:37 pm

lorenfb wrote:The M3 at $35K will not be profitable for Tesla, given its overhead.


Wrong question. The key question would be will the M3 SR cover marginal cost? If so, then even if 100% M3 SR would be losing money, some mix of SR and LR might be more profitable than making fewer cars that are all M3 LRs.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

SageBrush
Posts: 2838
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: I've joined the 7 bars club

Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:51 pm

WetEV wrote:
lorenfb wrote:The M3 at $35K will not be profitable for Tesla, given its overhead.


Wrong question. The key question would be will the M3 SR cover marginal cost? If so, then even if 100% M3 SR would be losing money, some mix of SR and LR might be more profitable than making fewer cars that are all M3 LRs.

I don't doubt that Tesla will absorb losses in the near term with SR production, just as they did with the LR. That however is not their longer term plan. My vague recollection is that Elon thinks the SR will be sustainably profitable at 500k Model 3 production a year.

Now that I have experience with my Model 3 though, I'd say that the real problem with the SR is that the battery is not large enough to be an ICE replacement in the USA that easily justifies the $35k price. Perhaps (probably ?) a different story in China and the EU.

In any case, the Model 3 LR is a general purpose, sporty, hot car that costs about 25 cents a mile TCO (excluding insurance.) Tesla has a new, large market segment all to itself for a long time.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
3/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

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