ydnas7
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Tue May 02, 2017 3:56 pm

this is how the cookie crumbles
'FCHEA urges ARB to postpone approval of the submitted plan'
https://www.arb.ca.gov/lists/com-attach ... QKbVMM.pdf


If the oil companies don't pay up for Hydrogen then its all over, 700 bar, semi-cryogenic hydrogen stations eat money to stay open.


realistically, VW (Audi/Porsche) needs to optimize these expenditure to compete against Tesla. So they will try with the same competency that allowed dieselgate to flourish to use this to compete with Tesla and Nissan. Hydrogen is just co-lateral damage.

RIP hydrogen California

GRA
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Tue May 02, 2017 4:12 pm

ydnas7 wrote:
GRA wrote:
ydnas7 wrote:https://www.arb.ca.gov/lists/com-attach/26-vwzevinvestplan-ws-VDVXI1MwUl4HbVI3.pdf

Toyota, Honda, Hyundai

So optimistically they are assuming a 5 year delay, on getting opm.

If only Hydrogen wasn't such a zero sum proposition.
They way that letter was CC'd indicates a level of desperation, its now or never, and Toyota, Honda, Hyundai sense that if they lose this round, its RIP for Hydrogen in California.

I'm curious as to who you think they should CC it to, if not the membership of the Air Resources Board who will make the decision, the Governor and his designated point person?


Ford submission did not CC everybody individually
Nissan and Tesla did not make a submission

Which is their choice (why Tesla wouldn't submit anything is obvious enough).
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

ydnas7
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Tue May 02, 2017 8:08 pm

Hydrogen missed out on OPM, that is the end of hydrogen.

Honda has a fallback plan on real PHEV, joke BEV and Tesla ZEVs
Hyundai is OK
Toyota, its hitting the fan

GRA
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Wed May 03, 2017 6:39 pm

ydnas7 wrote:Hydrogen missed out on OPM, that is the end of hydrogen.

Honda has a fallback plan on real PHEV, joke BEV and Tesla ZEVs
Hyundai is OK
Toyota, its hitting the fan

Seems like they've been getting a fair amount of OPM around the world (certainly including California), just as PEVs and charging providers have. But they'll try to get more, just as the others will. Big surprise there. I think 5-10% of the $200m every 30 months that California is getting from VW would be reasonable, but that's up to CARB. As CARB's Chairwoman owns both a Fit EV and a Mirai, I imagine she won't be averse to putting some VW money H2 station's way, always assuming they can get more qualified bidders for grants. That they have had trouble doing so is due to a fairly rigorous qualification process, designed to avoid giving money to companies that just suck dollars but never get stations open, or limp along hemorrhaging money while the officers cash in (like Ecotality did). In fact, they've been awarding considerably less than the $20m/year allowed under the statute. Now that Shell is involved with Toyota in building H2 stations here, I suspect it may be easier - they have the engineering and management know how to do so, will be putting them in at existing stations, and have adequate financial backing so they aren't going to go belly up. As it is, aside from First Element most of the existing stations have been built by industrial gas companies like Air Liquide, Air Products and Linde. If some of the other energy companies besides Shell get involved, that will speed things up.

Another source of delay has been that every time they go into a new city, the Authority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ) knows absolutely nothing about the requirements of H2, so has to be educated from the ground up as far as permitting. It helps that the state has developed a paper setting out the issues and including relevant guidelines and best practices, and the lag time between grant award and station completion has shortened considerably, but it still needs to come down a lot more to get back on schedule. Another source of delay is the RFS, as the company applying for the grant has to show just where they're going to get their renewable H2 from, that it's available in the necessary amount, that they've got a contract etc. before they can get any money. Necessary safeguards, but they do slow things down.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

ydnas7
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Wed May 03, 2017 7:35 pm

Hydrogen doesn't have the luxury of time to succeed in California.
Its been closing since 2010 with the Volt and the LEAF

Now its closed

what is Toyota's plan B?

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TonyWilliams
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Wed May 03, 2017 10:19 pm

ydnas7 wrote:Hydrogen doesn't have the luxury of time to succeed in California.
Its been closing since 2010 with the Volt and the LEAF

Now its closed

what is Toyota's plan B?


As long at the hydrogen club can keep meeting emission regulations with:

1) Token quantities of hydrogen cars
2) Lots of Other People's Money

It will continue.

It wasn't that long ago that it was obvious that hydrogen had zero chance competing against EVs, but maybe buses would work. We can now see that EV buses are doing very well and likely to overtake diesel buses in a generation. Hydrogen never grabbed hold.

So, then folks thought hydrogen might be ok for large scale grid storage, and then Tesla and others provided batteries (and solar) large enough to be useful on a large scale.

Then, some thought perhaps long range trucking might be a niche where grossly inefficient (compared to EVs) hydrogen could finally shine... and Tesla will announce their EV Class 8 tractor (semi-truck) this year.

Please tell me what market that hydrogen has a BONAFIDE SALES ADVANTAGE. Sadly for the hydrogen boosters, the answer is becoming quite clear.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Thu May 04, 2017 12:57 am

TonyWilliams wrote:So, then folks thought hydrogen might be ok for large scale grid storage, and then Tesla and others provided batteries (and solar) large enough to be useful on a large scale.
While this is certainly true, we need to all understand what "large scale" really means when we are talking about LI-ion batteries. As Jeff Dahn explained in a TED talk last year: jeff Dahn explained in a TED talk last year (sorry, I don't know how to stop the forum software from turning my URL into a full-sized YouTube window) It would take the entire output of a Gigafactory for TWO YEARS to build enough batteries to store enough energy to power Newfoundland for 24 hours.

The simple fact is that we have no storage technology on hand which can readily address the problem of grid-scale storage that is needed to support very high penetration levels of renewable energy. Clearly batteries have an important role to play here. Also clearly, ovesizing renewable generation facilities will become a necessity. While those two approaches together *may* eventually prove to be sufficient at or near the equator, they quickly fall apart as a solution as you move away from the equator toward the poles. Even at the modest latitude where I live, batteries are not a sufficient solution. What will be ultimately needed for countries like the United States to move entirely to renewables is seasonal energy storage capabilities: store energy in the summertime for use in the wintertime.

Seasonal energy storage is an application where hydrogen should have a significant role to play. The idea of using "excess" renewable energy generation to hydrolyze water to produce hydrogen which can then be stored in the natural gas pipelines at ratios up to about 15% is something that likely makes very good sense. This is true even if the hydrogen is simply burned along with the natural gas by the end users, since natural gas is currently used to provide both electricity AND heat in the wintertime. The technology exists to also extract pure hydrogen from the mixed-gas pipeline, but that is an expensive undertaking which will limit its application somewhat.

But, frankly, this application of hydrogen is developing at a glacial pace. I did several Google searches on this subject and did not get a single hit from 2017. I only got a couple of hits from 2016. The most significant event I know of is that Germany started pumping hydrogen into their natural gas pipelines in 2015 (which we discussed here at that time). I suppose that pilot project continues to this day, but I haven't seen any coverage of it since that time.

The bottom line is that we need to apply technologies where they naturally fit rather than trying to shoehorn them into areas where other technologies have advantages. Batteries will continue to win most (not all) applications where energy is stored only for a short while (read "days"), but they likely will almost never suit for seasonal energy storage applications. Hydrogen seems much better suited for those long-term storage roles and will find its way into other applications along the way. This is not an insignificant role, as I'm pretty sure the amount of energy we will need to store seasonally is larger than the amount we will need to store for short-term applications.

As always, time will tell which technologies end up in which roles.
RegGuheert
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WetEV
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Thu May 04, 2017 6:26 am

TonyWilliams wrote:Please tell me what market that hydrogen has a BONAFIDE SALES ADVANTAGE. Sadly for the hydrogen boosters, the answer is becoming quite clear.


General aviation. Batteries are too heavy, biofuels will be too expensive and less reliable. Doesn't work so well for longer range aircraft due to low energy density (kWh/liter).

Rocket fuel. Liquid hydrogen/liquid oxygen is the clear leader in specific impulse. Nothing else comes close.
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RegGuheert
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Thu May 04, 2017 7:03 am

WetEV wrote:General aviation. Batteries are too heavy, biofuels will be too expensive and less reliable. Doesn't work so well for longer range aircraft due to low energy density (kWh/liter).
Energy density is only one issue: I suspect liquid fuels will be required in aviation to maintain safety, as discussed previously in this thread.
RegGuheert
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ydnas7
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Thu May 04, 2017 4:01 pm

TonyWilliams wrote:
ydnas7 wrote:Hydrogen doesn't have the luxury of time to succeed in California.
Its been closing since 2010 with the Volt and the LEAF

Now its closed

what is Toyota's plan B?


As long at the hydrogen club can keep meeting emission regulations with:

1) Token quantities of hydrogen cars
2) Lots of Other People's Money

It will continue.
.....


I feel 2 1/2 major aspects have changed for Toyota's Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle vision.

China requiring plug in vehicle for 2018.
VW settlement in California going to plug in vehicles for initial 30 months
California Hydrogen stations are more expansive and cost a lot more to keep open than funded for under the 100 station budget.

There are now 3 providers of hydrogen cars in California, involved in an all out price war, the 'free' hydrogen actually is pretty much the price of the car. That is to say, for users and sellers, Honda/Hyundai/Toyota are leasing for cars for zero dollars if the sale cost of hydrogen was calculated. Buyers may not feel it, but the auto companies writing the checks realise the next step is negative prices, if they want a sale.

Yet leases are so slow, its doubtful that the hydrogen market can support all 3 car makers. But the infrastructure requirements need is immense.

Whatever Toyota public image may project, something is broken
Hydrogen is broken, and Toyota knows it, but is at a loss at how to proceed from here.

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