webb14leafs said:
You're right that there are some maintenance costs for EVs that we simply don't know about yet.
I will say this (and attempt to bring the discussion back on topic)...my first LEAF had to have its reduction gear assembly replaced. I had been (and continue to) tout that EVs are far cheaper vehicles to maintain and repair and the savings do add up (even if only marginally in the case of an expensive Model S or X). Between the almost complete lack of regular maintenance items and the fact that the EV drivetrain is far simpler than an ICE, it should be quite a bit cheaper to own an EV.
But wow, I was quite disappointed at my experience with the Nissan. For a few reasons. First, supposedly EVs don't have a transmission. Well technically true, but it does have this reduction gear, and boy was it expensive! It was a $2600 repair! We were able to get my son's ICE
transmission rebuilt for less than half that amount. Second, not only did I feel the part died early (technically I was BARELY out of warranty--stupid me I didn't bring the car in until just after 60K miles because I was so focused on potentially losing my 4th bar and I didn't want the car to just sit in a parking lot for 2 weeks in the summer), but after posting about this here and on Facebook, and the fact that Nissan knew exactly what the problem was based on just my description, I infer that this is actually a fairly common problem!
Now fortunately Nissan did offer me out of warranty assistance so I didn't have to pay the $2600 myself (or at least not all of it). And I am willing to posit that perhaps this was due to the fact that it was a first generation LEAF and maybe parts quality was not yet mature.
However, to bring it back on topic, let's not fall into the trap of thinking that the Model 3 won't be in the same boat. Most of us that have reservations and will take delivery in the first year are going to be buying a car that almost certainly will have more issues than say either a 2023 Model 3 or a more established ICE vehicle today. If part of your justification for buying the Model 3 (or by extension, any Tesla) is that it's going to be far cheaper to maintain & repair, let's dispel that right away. While the drivetrain may be simpler, it's also "newer" and failures will be more likely to occur. And if/when they do occur, they will likely be quite expensive due to their relative rarity and lack of a good aftermarket supply chain build up. I'm not saying the cars will be junk either. Any individual owner may have great luck and have nothing go wrong. Just if we look at the total population, I do think that initially the cost spent on maintenance & repair per capita will certainly not be zero, and in fact may not even be all that competitive with reliable ICE vehicles.