edatoakrun
Well-known member
PaulScott said:It's important to consider the price of gas when making these projections. A ten year old LEAF needing a new battery might be highly desireable if gas is $6/gallon. We're finally starting to put a price on carbon, and ten years is a long time. I am of the opinion a used EV will look pretty good in ten years.LTLFTcomposite said:A 10 year old Leaf is still going to be a 10 year old car, with all the dents, dings, stains, worn upholstery, and cracked dashboard of any other car. Some things on it will stop working that aren't worth fixing. It will look sad sitting next to a new one. As long as it runs there will still be a buyer for it, but it won't be a person with a lot of money to spend, people with money will be the ones buying the new ones. Assuming the new ones have greater range and other new features, I'm betting a EVs will decline in desirability even more than gas cars. Time will tell.adric22 said:For example, if it costs $3,000 to replace a battery in a 10 year old Leaf, that Leaf will still be worth more money because people will know they can replace the battery at a reasonable cost and keep driving it for many years.
The " 10 year old car, with all the dents, dings, stains, worn upholstery, and cracked dashboard" in a multi-car household is often used to drive far fewer miles, and taken on far fewer long trips than the "new" car.
If you wanted a vehicle for a short commute, for a non-commuting household member to use for errands, or one for your kid to drive to school (and NOT take on road trips) would you want a 10 year old ICEV, with its huge fuel and maintenance costs per mile, or a 10 year old BEV that only retains ~70% of the "new" Battery range?
I think Nissan is correct that the majority of LEAFs will never have their batteries replaced, at least not in their first decade of use.
Even those LEAFs with a significant percentage of battery capacity loss, will still have close to 100% utility for those drivers who only want to make short trips between recharges. And used BEV buyers will probably be willing to pay for that utility, given the relatively tiny market supply of used BEVs, relative to ICEVs.
And so, I think it very likely BEV residual values will track much higher than comparably priced ICEVs, over the long haul.
For ~$15k to ~$30k (new net price) BEVs, anyway.
But for ~$100 k BEVs?
Far less certain, IMO