MapleLeafAndrew
Member
- Joined
- Sep 2, 2016
- Messages
- 6
Hi everyone,
I live in Vancouver, Canada and just bought a used 2012 Leaf that someone else had imported from California. It is currently displaying 9 bars and has 78,800 km (48,800 miles) on it. Since I would looooove to have the battery replaced under warranty I have become very curious about whether or not it's likely to drop the 4th bar while it's still under the battery degradation warranty.
Being an analytical guy, I went through the Real World Battery Capacity Loss on the Wiki and made a spreadsheet to try and figure out what factors (miles, months, Ahr, SOH, Hx, GIDs) correlated best with dropping of the 3rd, 4th and 5th bar. The sample size isn't huge since many vehicles didn't report the technical details, but I think it gives a relatively good picture. Since the information from this forum and the wiki has been so valuable I wanted to share the spreadsheet with everyone in the hopes that some people would find it useful for their own predictions.
You can view or download the excel spreadsheet through Google Drive. (Click the words "Google Drive")
There are two tabs on the spreadsheet, "Generic" and "4 Bar Analysis."
The "Generic" tab shows all the info in a table as well as a bunch of histograms (bar charts) showing how many vehicles dropped their 3rd, 4th and 5th bar at various points in relation to miles driven, months of ownership, Ahr, SOH, Hx and GIDs. One tip on reading the histograms: each number on the x-axis (bottom) means "not more than." For example, you can see that 16 vehicles lost the 4th bar after 50,000 miles and before 60,000 miles.
The "4 Bar Analysis" tab goes into more detail about the loss of the 4th bar and also has charts showing what % of vehicles dropped the 4th bar based on Ahr, SOH, Hx and GIDs. Please keep in mind that this is only based on the population of vehicles that reported these stats!! For example, only 10 vehicles (out of 58) reported the GIDs when the fourth bar dropped, so please take it all with a grain of salt.
Given the data (and probably not surprisingly) it looks like miles, months and Hx are poor predictors of bar drop while Ahr and GIDs are better predictors. The confusing thing right now is that there doesn't seem to be a clear correlation between Ahr and GIDs when the bar drops happen. I can only speculate that the capacity bars are based on some other parameter, or some average value over a period of time. It would be great if someone had additional information on what exact parameter the capacity bars represent.
The Leaf I purchased has the following stats: 48,802 miles, 44 months since first registration, 42.90 Ahr, 65% SOH, 44.29Hx and 184 GIDs. Based on Ahr I figure there is about a 50% chance that I'll drop the bar any day now. Based on GIDs I figure there is a 10% chance I'll drop the bar any day now. Using the Surfingslovak model from the Battery Capacity Loss Wiki I figure that being in Vancouver I'll drop 5 GIDs per year which would put me around the 70% chance of dropping the 4th bar by this time next year based on GIDs.
Anyway, I hope that some people can find the information useful!
I live in Vancouver, Canada and just bought a used 2012 Leaf that someone else had imported from California. It is currently displaying 9 bars and has 78,800 km (48,800 miles) on it. Since I would looooove to have the battery replaced under warranty I have become very curious about whether or not it's likely to drop the 4th bar while it's still under the battery degradation warranty.
Being an analytical guy, I went through the Real World Battery Capacity Loss on the Wiki and made a spreadsheet to try and figure out what factors (miles, months, Ahr, SOH, Hx, GIDs) correlated best with dropping of the 3rd, 4th and 5th bar. The sample size isn't huge since many vehicles didn't report the technical details, but I think it gives a relatively good picture. Since the information from this forum and the wiki has been so valuable I wanted to share the spreadsheet with everyone in the hopes that some people would find it useful for their own predictions.
You can view or download the excel spreadsheet through Google Drive. (Click the words "Google Drive")
There are two tabs on the spreadsheet, "Generic" and "4 Bar Analysis."
The "Generic" tab shows all the info in a table as well as a bunch of histograms (bar charts) showing how many vehicles dropped their 3rd, 4th and 5th bar at various points in relation to miles driven, months of ownership, Ahr, SOH, Hx and GIDs. One tip on reading the histograms: each number on the x-axis (bottom) means "not more than." For example, you can see that 16 vehicles lost the 4th bar after 50,000 miles and before 60,000 miles.
The "4 Bar Analysis" tab goes into more detail about the loss of the 4th bar and also has charts showing what % of vehicles dropped the 4th bar based on Ahr, SOH, Hx and GIDs. Please keep in mind that this is only based on the population of vehicles that reported these stats!! For example, only 10 vehicles (out of 58) reported the GIDs when the fourth bar dropped, so please take it all with a grain of salt.
Given the data (and probably not surprisingly) it looks like miles, months and Hx are poor predictors of bar drop while Ahr and GIDs are better predictors. The confusing thing right now is that there doesn't seem to be a clear correlation between Ahr and GIDs when the bar drops happen. I can only speculate that the capacity bars are based on some other parameter, or some average value over a period of time. It would be great if someone had additional information on what exact parameter the capacity bars represent.
The Leaf I purchased has the following stats: 48,802 miles, 44 months since first registration, 42.90 Ahr, 65% SOH, 44.29Hx and 184 GIDs. Based on Ahr I figure there is about a 50% chance that I'll drop the bar any day now. Based on GIDs I figure there is a 10% chance I'll drop the bar any day now. Using the Surfingslovak model from the Battery Capacity Loss Wiki I figure that being in Vancouver I'll drop 5 GIDs per year which would put me around the 70% chance of dropping the 4th bar by this time next year based on GIDs.
Anyway, I hope that some people can find the information useful!