Autonomous Vehicles, LEAF and others...

[edatoakrun]

...human drivers would be equally left in the dust when autonomous vehicles rule the streets and communicate silently, invisibly and instantly with each other to navigate at high speeds in close formation, like flocks of birds or schools of fish, swiftly, efficiently and elegantly. A human driver would just cramp their style and impede the flow of traffic, only slightly less so than if his car were disabled altogether in the middle of the 405 freeway. He might as well have a horse and buggy at the Indy 500. It would be time for humans to put away the driving gloves.

I think many of those who think they will never trust a car to drive itself may be convinced when they are stuck in traffic, and see the BEVs in the autonomous lane passing them by at ~80 to ~100 mph.

If they haven't already been convinced, after autonomous vehicles have shown they can beat human drivers on any race course.

Or after they notice Airline safety has been improved by removing the pilots, or at least by restricting them from making really bad decisions:

Planes Without Pilots

By JOHN MARKOFFAPRIL 6, 2015

MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. — Mounting evidence that the co-pilot crashed a Germanwings plane into a French mountain has prompted a global debate about how to better screen crewmembers for mental illness and how to ensure that no one is left alone in the cockpit.

But among many aviation experts, the discussion has taken a different turn. How many human pilots, some wonder, are really necessary aboard commercial planes?

One? None?...

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/07/science/planes-without-pilots.html?_r=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[GRA]

I for one, welcome our new robot overlords! :lol:

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

When autonomous drive vehicles become numerous enough, I imagine there will be a divide between those who will own them, to continue the tradition of having private property, and those who prefer to subscribe to a transportation service, setting up rides with a phone app, so the number of overall vehicles on the road, and the need for parking may not diminish all that much.

 

[timhebb]

I envision multiple classes of autonomous-vehicle service (EVs of course) for those who choose not to own a vehicle any longer, to serve all price points, utilitarian needs and levels of luxury. Customers could decide in advance if they want a private ride or a shared one, going point-to-point or picking up friends or family along the way.

At the low end, there would be mass-market shuttles, stripped-down basic transport vehicles for 6-10 people, that would support "van-pooling" service, dynamically changing the route and destinations as customers clicked an app on their cell phones, all automated and routed in real time by algorithms for optimum efficiency. Passengers would only be guaranteed "delivery" to their destination within a time range, and might make several other stops for pickups and dropoffs along the way, but fares would be dirt-cheap.

There would be specialty business and/or conferencing vehicles for that market, equipped with all manner of business equipment, communications and facilities, to support mobile business activities and groups.

And of course there would be the luxury market, featuring rolling lounges appointed with every state-of-the-art creature comfort, screening facilities, party provisions and then some. Sports bars on wheels, casinos to go ...

Of course, if you just want a quick, quiet and comfortable ride to the market or to the movies at a very reasonable price, that will be available too at the click of a button, not unlike Uber today but with no other humans on board - just how Uber imagines it too.

 

[GRA]

Via ABG:

The skinny on Delphi's autonomous road trip across the United States [w/videos]

http://www.autoblog.com/2015/04/08/delphi-autonomous-road-trip-across-us-videos/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[edatoakrun]

Carlos Ghosn making the link between "Zero Emissions, Zero Fatalities." IMO, is a strong hint.

I now think the 2017 LEAF gen 2 will probably hit the market in late 2016, and be available with "Traffic Jam Pilot".

I hope they come up with a better name for this feature, for marketing purposes.

Considering my observations RE the skill level of many drivers in heavy traffic, maybe VIP?

For Vehicle Idiot Protection...?

The Truth About 'Autonomous Drive' Cars

(Carlos Ghosn)...Starting from late next year, we plan to offer what internally we are calling the "Traffic Jam Pilot," a feature that allows the car to drive autonomously and safely in heavy, stop-and-go traffic. This eventually will be offered across a wide range of our Nissan, Infiniti and Renault vehicles.

In 2018, we’ll introduce technology that allows a car to autonomously negotiate hazards and change lanes. And by 2020, we plan to introduce vehicles that can navigate without driver intervention in nearly all situations, including complex city driving.

Q: When will we see the driverless car?

A: Eventually, a more elaborate combination of these technologies will lead us to the driverless car – one that can operate fully autonomously, even with nobody in it. So you conceivably could send it to pick up your children from school, or to take an ill parent to the doctor’s office.

But that is much further into the future – at least a decade away. In fact, I expect the technology will be perfected well before it hits the street, because there are a host of regulatory, legal and security issues that must be resolved first...

The fact is most drivers do not enjoy commuting in grindingly slow, stop-and-go traffic. It’s the same thing with long trips along monotonously straight expressways.

With our cars, the driver will decide whether to use the technology when it’s appropriate. It will be optional. Nothing will stop you from being in full control as you enjoy driving the twisty turns of California’s Pacific Coast Highway or the beautiful mountain passes in the Alps.

The fact is most drivers do not enjoy commuting in grindingly slow, stop-and-go traffic. It’s the same thing with long trips along monotonously straight expressways."

Our goal is to enhance the driving experience, not detract from it. We want to build cars that give drivers more freedom, more options and more control, but improve the driver’s ability to avoid an accident.

Q: So is improved safety the main advantage?

A: Yes. At the Renault-Nissan Alliance, one of our internal mantras is "Zero Emissions, Zero Fatalities." We have made tremendous progress with electric vehicles. Autonomous Drive technology is a big step toward achieving the "zero fatalities" part...

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/truth-autonomous-drive-cars-carlos-ghosn?trk=mp-reader-card" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[edatoakrun]

Interesting story on how Google's approach is different than established automakers.

IMO, Google probably has it right, and most everyone else probably has it wrong, if they plan to remain dependent on humans for back-up indefinitely.

Once we reach the tipping point where self-driving systems are safer than humans overall, the question of liability will fall on the vehicle manufactures, who (following a human-caused collision) will need to prove why it was safer to turn the control of the vehicle over to a human.

And that may be hard to prove.

Google’s Plan to Eliminate Human Driving in 5 Years

...What’s important here is Google’s commitment to its all-or-nothing approach, which contrasts with the steady-as-she-goes approach favored by automakers like Mercedes, Audi and Nissan.

Autonomous vehicles are coming. Make no mistake. But conventional automakers are rolling out features piecemeal, over the course of many years. Cars already have active safety features like automatic braking and lane departure warnings. In the next few years, expect cars to handle themselves on the highway, with more complicated urban driving to follow.

“We call it a revolution by evolution. We will take it step by step, and add more functionality, add more usefulness to the system,” says Thomas Ruchatz, Audi’s head of driver assistance systems and integrated safety. Full autonomy is “not going to happen just like that,” where from one day to the next “we can travel from our doorstep to our work and we don’t have a steering wheel in the car.”

Google thinks that’s exactly what’s going to happen. It isn’t messing around with anything less than a completely autonomous vehicle, one that reduces “driving” to little more than getting in, entering a destination, and enjoying the ride...

One of the trickiest—and little discussed—challenges facing automakers is how to handle the transition between computers and humans, particularly in an emergency. Building an autonomous system that requires occasional human control raises tricky questions, not the least of which is how you ensure the person at the wheel is alert and ready to take over. Audi’s testing has shown it takes an average of 3 to 7 seconds, and as long as 10, for a driver to snap to attention and take control, even when prompted by flashing lights and verbal warnings. At lot can can happen in 10 seconds, especially when a vehicle is moving more than 100 feet per second.

And as humans drive less and less, won’t we get worse at it? Doesn’t that make us a terrible backup system?...

http://www.wired.com/2015/05/google-wants-eliminate-human-driving-5-years/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Several news stories reporting Barclays' predictions for the shrinking future auto market (and the risks for Tesla, in particular) based on the "disappearance of the individual ownership model" resulting from autonomous vehicles.

...Another study warns that self-driving cars will eliminate many multicar households, reduce U.S. auto sales by 40% over the next 25 years...

http://www.freep.com/story/money/2015/05/20/general-motors-ford-fiat-chrysler-barclays-self-driving-cars/27635805/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

In a report published Tuesday, Barclays analyst Brian A. Johnson discussed the future of the auto industry, noting that Tesla Motors Inc is "reasonably well positioned" within the Family Autonomous Vehicles (FAVs) market with both its status and performance features.

However, Tesla's plans to reach the mass market could be thwarted not only by new competitors looking to enter the market, but by the future of the auto industry characterized by what the analyst calls the " of the individual ownership model" in the mass market...

http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/15/05/5524549/barclays-on-tesla-the-disrupter-gets-disrupted" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[edatoakrun]

IMO, the authors may not fully understand the irrational preferences of Americans.

Yes, it's irrational for a soccer mom/dad to take a ~three-ton ~400 Horsepower SUV for a short ~25 mph trip to buy groceries.

But are those folks accustomed to that irrationality going to be satisfied riding in a ~500 lb single-seat autonomous pod, instead?

The full study is behind a paywall, but the article below is worth a click:

Berkeley Study: Driverless Taxis Maximize Benefits Of Autonomous EVs

A new study published by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) suggests that utilizing autonomous electrified vehicles as driverless taxis can maximize the technology’s potential.

The research team, which includes Berkeley Lab scientists Jeffery Greenblatt and Samveg Saxena, said lower carbon emissions, lower energy costs and cheaper maintenance were among the benefits of self-driving electrified vehicles (EVs).

“When we first started looking at autonomous vehicles, we found that, of all the variables we could consider, the use of autonomous vehicles as part of a shared transit system seemed to be the biggest lever that pointed to lower energy use per mile,” said Greenblatt...

It’s not surprising that the study’s results show that autonomous taxis are more efficient than current gasoline vehicles. What is significant is the amount of carbon emissions that will be saved, even in comparison to the predicted output of a future hybrid vehicle.

“The analysis found that the per-mile greenhouse gas emissions of an electric vehicle deployed as a self-driving, or autonomous, taxi in 2030 would be 63 to 82 percent lower than a projected 2030 hybrid vehicle driven as a privately owned car and 90 percent lower than a 2014 gasoline-powered private vehicle,” said Julie Chao with the Berkeley Lab.

Vehicle Size is Important

Sending out the right vehicle size to pick up passengers is a key factor to the carbon equation, said the researchers.

“Most trips in the U.S. are taken singly, meaning one- or two-seat cars would satisfy most trips,” Greenblatt said. “That gives us a factor of two savings, since smaller vehicles means reduced energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.”

According to the study, tailoring the taxi to the size of the party – called “right-sizing” – results in almost half of the vehicle’s carbon emission savings. This approach, however, requires the taxi service to have a range of vehicle sizes to send out the best size each time. Ride sharing – shifting a one-person cab ride to a two-person ride – would further reduce energy consumption.

Cost Savings

Both energy savings (the cost of recharging EV batteries in comparison to the cost of gasoline) and maintenance expenses were predicted to be less for the self-driving taxis.

“You don’t often find that, where the cheapest is also the greenest,”...

http://www.hybridcars.com/berkeley-study-driverless-taxis-maximize-benefits-of-autonomous-evs/

 

[GRA]

Haven't tried it myself, but via ABG:

This web game shows you why self-driving cars are better

http://www.autoblog.com/2015/08/05/this-web-game-shows-you-why-self-driving-cars-are-better/

 

[ydnas7]

Autonomous driving cars

Opens up a large and demographically growing market for new additional cars on the road. Grandma/grandpa
their independence and dignity is about all they have left, to be stripped of their license because of failing eyesight or risk of stroke etc is debilitating. Some pureed chicken in every pot, and an autonomous EV in every garage.

People like to own their own bed, their own couch, their own car seat. Autonomous driving cars increases the age range suitable for vehicle ownership, significantly. If 20-70 is the range for vehicle ownership, autonomous cars may expand that to 15-95. Major increase in vehicle parc.

another effect of autonomous cars is to debilitate public transport buses. Autonomous cars will probably provide great feeder services for trains, but buses will find their existence significantly threatened by autonomous cars. Tesla has already stated that for the US, there are many cases where autonomous cars will be cheaper to operate than buses.

 

[RegGuheert]

Haven't tried it myself, but via ABG:

This web game shows you why self-driving cars are better

http://www.autoblog.com/2015/08/05/this-web-game-shows-you-why-self-driving-cars-are-better/

Actually, that video game shows no such thing.

 

[GRA]

Autonomous driving cars

Opens up a large and demographically growing market for new additional cars on the road. Grandma/grandpa
their independence and dignity is about all they have left, to be stripped of their license because of failing eyesight or risk of stroke etc is debilitating. Some pureed chicken in every pot, and an autonomous EV in every garage.

People like to own their own bed, their own couch, their own car seat. Autonomous driving cars increases the age range suitable for vehicle ownership, significantly. If 20-70 is the range for vehicle ownership, autonomous cars may expand that to 15-95. Major increase in vehicle parc.

another effect of autonomous cars is to debilitate public transport buses. Autonomous cars will probably provide great feeder services for trains, but buses will find their existence significantly threatened by autonomous cars. Tesla has already stated that for the US, there are many cases where autonomous cars will be cheaper to operate than buses.

It's far cheaper to rent a car (car share) than own one for intermittent use, as in owning a car most costs (about 80% per AAA) are fixed; operating costs are only about 20%. The average car spends ~96% of its time parked (23 out of 24 hours), and costs an average of over $9,000/year. Thus, the more you drive it, the lower the cost per mile.

Car sharing shifts the majority of cost to operating cost. The reduction in the cost of 'personal,' on demand transport will be almost as important to seniors and others on limited incomes as autonomy will be. For those who can afford it and want to do so, owning will still be an option, but the need to do so, especially in medium/high density urban areas, will decrease radically.

As for buses, autonomous cars may well make them unnecessary in low-density suburbs, where they've never been able to provide high quality service in any case owing to the lack of customers (due to the low density), but that doesn't mean that they won't still be needed in dense areas, where an EV doesn't do anything to reduce congestion. The largest single cost category for public transit is labor, and autonomous buses, street cars and trains may well allow service to be increased in quality (greater frequency, longer hours etc.) for the same cost. Of course, there will first be a long battle between the unions and transit agencies, just as we're seeing now between taxi and Uber/Lyft drivers (the latter will all too soon be protesting that autonomous cars are putting _them_ out of business).

 

[mjblazin]

We already have autonomous vehicles for ages 6 to 96. They are called taxis. I am still not getting the idea on how autonomous vehicles lead to less ownership. The same calculations indicate we would need fewer cars if everyone took taxis. I had this conversation with my mother many times. She wanted her own car and could easily afford it. The conversation won't be any different when the driver of the shared vehicle AKA taxi is a robot.

 

[GRA]

We already have autonomous vehicles for ages 6 to 96. They are called taxis. I am still not getting the idea on how autonomous vehicles lead to less ownership. The same calculations indicate we would need fewer cars if everyone took taxis. I had this conversation with my mother many times. She wanted her own car and could easily afford it. The conversation won't be any different when the driver of the shared vehicle AKA taxi is a robot.

Don't know if our posts crossed or what, but I think I answered your points in my immediately preceding post. Those who value (and can afford) personal ownership of a car can continue to do so for an extended period with an autonomous car. And those who need or would prefer to use the money that would otherwise go towards car ownership for something else, can still benefit from most of the convenience and flexibility of a car through car-sharing. The savings from not owning a car amount to thousands of dollars a year.

 

[mjblazin]

I understand the math of the savings. Those same savings now exist with taxis. I just don't see how the math with robot cars, really the same math results, alters actual buyers' perception and actual choices made. Some people will choose robot taxis as some now choose human taxis. Robot cars in of themselves will not reduce the number of cars simply because algebra says it is more efficient. While the job prospects of drivers may dim, the job prospects for mechanics driven by numbers of cars and exacerbated by a several magnitude increase in car complexity look very good. We will have as many or more cars and virtually no one besides Vin Diesel will have capacity to work on them outside an expensive mechanic's shop.

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

What may change the equation would be an autonomous drive service that will give you a better experience than today's taxis, at a fraction of the cost.

 

[edatoakrun]

What may change the equation would be an autonomous drive service that will give you a better experience than today's taxis, at a fraction of the cost.

Correct.

You get another seat in the EV available for a paying customer, and you don't need to pay a driver.

Which is why Uber is corporately salivating at the prospect...

 

[GRA]

I understand the math of the savings. Those same savings now exist with taxis. I just don't see how the math with robot cars, really the same math results, alters actual buyers' perception and actual choices made. Some people will choose robot taxis as some now choose human taxis. Robot cars in of themselves will not reduce the number of cars simply because algebra says it is more efficient. While the job prospects of drivers may dim, the job prospects for mechanics driven by numbers of cars and exacerbated by a several magnitude increase in car complexity look very good. We will have as many or more cars and virtually no one besides Vin Diesel will have capacity to work on them outside an expensive mechanic's shop.

In addition to the quality of service advantages others have mentioned, consider for the moment what the situation will be if the sharing economy proves to be a long-term societal change rather than a passing fad. The current, car-owning generation considers doing so important because they've always done so, and owning a car has always represented freedom and mobility to them. But the millennials may not have the same mindset/expectations; for them, owning a car (or a house ftm) may represent a loss of freedom. If they arrive at retirement age from the 2040s on with car ownership never having been a necessity, not owning one will just continue the status quo.

With both the 'creative class' and empty nesters now opting for dense city cores in large numbers, more and more people can get around without owning a car, and all the hassle and expense that means in a dense city. Autonomous car-sharing, combined with walk/bike/transit for most errands, will almost certainly accelerate the trend away from car ownership. Hell, if I hadn't paid cash for my car 12 years ago and I had car-sharing options within a reasonable distance (the nearest Zip-car is located 2.6 miles and 400 ft. higher than me), I would have little justification to own a car now.

 

[GRA]

What may change the equation would be an autonomous drive service that will give you a better experience than today's taxis, at a fraction of the cost.

Correct.

You get another seat in the EV available for a paying customer, and you don't need to pay a driver.

Which is why Uber is corporately salivating at the prospect...

Lower insurance costs, too.

 

[RegGuheert]

Haven't tried it myself, but via ABG:

This web game shows you why self-driving cars are better

http://www.autoblog.com/2015/08/05/this-web-game-shows-you-why-self-driving-cars-are-better/

Actually, that video game shows no such thing.

This guy tried it:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YacbWAG2NRE[/youtube]

He was able to drive the cars ~3000 km in the allotted time versus ~40 km for the self-driving cars.

Gee! He must by 75X as good as self-driving cars.

No. It's just a video game. He gamed it in just the same manner as the game creator gamed it.