WetEV said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
Disagree. Depends on future assumptions and personal details. Notice that the future is unknown. I doubt if the price of gasoline will stay at $2.65 for the next 10 years. Do you? It is about $2.70 now locally, and $4.15 in BC.
Please note the words "at this moment" in Valdemar's statement, which I was agreeing with.
A break even calculation for an investment MUST involve assumptions about the future. Even to assume that the future is exactly like the present is an assumption about the future. And again, a break even calculation must include the personal details. Not everyone lives in California. Break even in BC is rather different than break even in California. I get that. Do you get that?
As I've repeatedly stated that your situation is very different than that of most Americans, its should be obvious by now that I get that. Having worked with RE, I've known for decades now that its economics are entirely situationally dependent, and PEVs are currently no different.
WetEV said:
GRA said:
It's now back up to $2.60, which is still well below what I'd pay for public charging, and even with home charging (PG&E's residential electric rates are much higher than yours, as cwerdna has detailed) current BEVs cost too much without the tax credit to make economic sense.
Gas is down to $1.20 a liter in Canada. That is about US$4 a gallon. Note that personal details matter. Local gas prices, local electric rates, how long your commute is, and so on and so forth. Electric rates vary by more than an order of magnitude. Gas prices vary a lot, both by location and by time. Battery life expectation varies a lot, even with thermal management systems.
Where have I ever said or implied that personal usage, local climate and situations don't matter? I've stressed repeatedly that they are critical, here and in numerous other threads.
WetEV said:
WetEV said:
Oh, and what exactly is the "comparable car"?
GRA said:
Any car with similar size and features, other than powertrain of course.
How about the car I would have bought if not a Leaf?
Sure. If you were thinking of a Civic, it's a bit smaller than a LEAF, so an Accord would be a closer match.
WetEV said:
GRA said:
the gas can be most people's sole car.
Not a requirement to be my sole car, in my case. And with longer range EVs, more people can use them as the sole car.
For the people who own homes and are able to use a dedicated car for commuting (and only for commuting and local use, and who have relatively low cost electricity and relatively high cost gas, they can be economic, maybe even without subsidies. But that's a lot of qualfications.
As for longer-ranged affordable BEVs, once they arrive they may certainly be usuable as some people's sole car, although I expect they still won't have enough range to take more than 5-10% of that market, given current and (my guess) likely near/midterm conditions as well as consumer needs/desires/expectations. We'll see.
WetEV said:
GRA said:
Sure, in the part of the U.S. with the most ideal climate for batteries and the lowest electric prices, you just may be able to make an economic case.
It is more accurate to say that the battery electric and the gasoline care are similar in lifetime economic cost, and this is correct outside the PNW. Include the convenience of an electric, and there would be a fraction of people that would drive a BEV, even where the cost was somewhat higher, even without uncounted costs like bad air and climate change. And note, the fraction that finds an electric rarely will use expensive public charging.
And yet, the fraction of people who find BEVs compelling given their current capabilities, even when bribed with other people's money, is minimal. We know that there's some even more minimal fraction who will drive this or that type of AFV regardless of the cost, because they're enthusiasts or ideologues, but we can't count on them for significant change.
BTW, turning your statement around, I think you meant that only those people who don't have to use expensive public charging will find BEVs economic. Since that leaves out the majority of the world's urban population, I don't see that as acceptable.
WetEV said:
I don't see how hydrogen fuel cell cars ever improve to the point of being similar in cost. Even if they did, they would be less convenient. Where is the fraction of people that will convert? Ideological reasons (aka breathable air and minimal climate change) only?
I've always been clear that H2/FCEVs, to succeed, will have to have comparable or lower costs than fossil fuels. The question is whether or not that can be achieved, through technical developments, economies of scale, and/or tax policy, and I've said repeatedly that if it does occur it will happen first in areas with much more expensive (owing to taxes) auto fuels, like Europe.
WetEV said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
Frankly, the Leaf is just nicer to drive. It is similar in cost, within the margin of error. To put the motivation as only ideological is just wrong.
I'm curious, would you have even considered (or known about) the LEAF or any other BEV if you hadn't been motivated by some desire to reduce your fossil fuel use?
Considered and knew about, yes, because I worked with an electric car owner in 1996. Conversion, of course. Lead acid, of course. And more.
Okay, my first exposure to BEVs is similar to yours and predates it by a few years, when I had an off-grid customer in the early '90s who'd converted a Karmann Ghia, and then I kept an eye on the tech through the '90s, rented/tested a Think City for a week in '97 or '98, and kept following them until the LEAF/Volt arrived. With their limited capability at that time, it was clear that only the most enthusiastic/ideological types would have an interest in them. Not much has changed yet, although I do have hopes for Gen 2.
GRA said:
which are the essential features to you, and which are the 'nice to have' ones?
Electrics are smooth and responsive in a way that gasoline cars can't be. Just nicer to drive. That plus commuting convenience.
I'd consider a Bolt if:
Commute only, with a commute on the order 40 miles to 100 miles. Less than that, I'd chose a Leaf, or perhaps a FFE in hot places. Twice this distance with both workplace charging and home charging. Would need to be in a household with additional car or cars, with home charging. Too short of commute, probably better biking or walking.
Only car. Maybe. Would need home charging. For me, at least, I would need to be retired, and problem would be living some place else. Range would need to cover all trips I'd be likely to take once a year or more often, with destination charging considered.[/quote]
Okay, good. Here's my list:
Single person household so only car, and must be capable of all trips at least in state - may be willing to rent for out of state trips, but would prefer not to. Used primarily on road trips, including in winter, so needs long winter freeway/highway range while using HVAC - 250+ miles desired. Must provide that range over at least a decade (20 years preferred) without expensive replacements. AWD strongly preferred, but don't need excessively-high ground clearance. Rapid refueling/recharging very much preferred for convenience and practicality, as most of the places I drive to and park have limited and, in most cases, no electric infrastructure. No ability to charge at home currently except by jury-rigged L1, and public L2 currently more expensive than fossil fuel options, so BEVs currently provide no convenience or cost benefit. Has to be affordable - $35k is the absolute outside I'm willing to pay for any car. Must have space to sleep in with rear seats folded flat.
I'm essentially deaf now so don't much care about noise levels, but VH needs to be reasonable. Needs decent ride, and a driver's seat/seat position comfortable for at least four hours at a stretch, including adequate lumbar support and leg room. Must have decent or better handling for driving twisty mountain roads at speed, and good steering feel/feedback. 0-60 acceleration must be adequate to do a safe merge into fast moving freeway traffic from a dead stop at an on-ramp metering light; in practice anything under 15 seconds is adequate, but < 10 sec. is preferred. Must have adequate passing performance at density altitudes up to at least 8k feet, and ability to maintain flow of traffic speeds up to at least 10k feet while fully loaded internally, and/or with skis on a roof rack. Wagon/Hatchback/CUV body style mandatory, and prefer a vehicle no more than 180" long. Four passengers is plenty, no need for more than 5, and most of the time 2 is all that is required. Must have space to carry a full-size spare and a jack, preferably without encroaching on normal cargo space. Controls need good ergonomic design, and those used while driving must be identifiable/usable by touch, i.e. no touch screens/menus. CC mandatory, maybe ACC, along with standard safety features ABS/airbags/ etc. and AEB. Full autonomous capability desired if mature, but not essential. The widest possible field of view is more important than how the car looks, or achieving the smallest possible C, but it should be as energy-efficient as possible while meeting the above requirements.
Taking all the above into account, at the moment an HEV CUV makes the most sense for me, although a PHEV like the Outlander (whenever it gets here) would give me a bit of future proofing and options. The A3 Sportback e-tron would be the nicest driving and have the best controls, but is a bit lacking in cargo capacity with the seats up and isn't AWD, and probably falls short of my long-term reliability requirements. FCEVs are at least another generation away from being suitable, if they ever are, although the Tucson would probably meet most of my requirements other than price. It's a bit short on range, though, given the current sparseness of fueling stations outside my local area - another year or two and that may no longer be an issue.
Once I started designing systems and selling the equipment to other people, a more rational approach was necessary, and forced me to look at stuff from outside the enthusiast's bubble. Of course, many of my customers were also enthusiasts, but I made sure they first told me what they were trying to accomplish, and understood their options.
