COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/21/coronavirus-testing-strategyshift/

In an ideal world, public health officials say they should have done wide scale surveillance testing of people with respiratory symptoms much earlier. But city-by-city and state-by-state, officials say they are nearing — or in some cases have already crossed — the line when they must make a hard trade-off:

“In the 2009 influenza pandemic, we stopped testing for H1N1 once the level of illness in the community was so high that it just made more sense to treat based on clinical symptoms,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist with the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health’s Center for Health Security.

In the coronavirus health crisis, there are no specific treatments.

“Our only defense is to tell people to stay home and to hope that sick people isolate themselves,” she said. While it’s essential for testing capacity to increase, the general public needs to understand what health officials are up against given the shortages.

“We have to target our resources and reserve testing for those who need it most: severely ill and those in high risk professions, such as health care workers,” she said. “We’d cause more harms by encouraging the general public to run out and get tested if they are well or experiencing mild illness.”
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Testing is only one factor in the spread.

The other and by far the most important factor is VERY EARLY dissemination of "correct" facts and instructions to reduce the spread.

South Korea, Japan, etc. They have one thing in common; citizens that willingly sacrifice for the good of the country. It was their self quarantining and maintaining social distancing that was the most important step resulting in their now dropping infection rates.

What we had was leadership downplaying the threat due to elections and stock market investments. Then a great reaction (which still falls far short of what is needed) well too late meaning our extreme measures would have worked in January but will not work today.

But the REAL key is our country made up of "free will" Americans. Partially due to early reports that we had little to worry about and partially due to mixed messages put out by our government, yesterday's news was telling.

Two interviews, both basically saying the same thing. A group of young people in Seattle enjoying the beautiful weather Thursday along with Spring Breakers in Florida.

When asked why they were participating in potentially dangerous activities they responded.

"We worked hard all year and deserve to have some fun so that is what we are going to do"

So how did this seed get planted in their heads? I think we all know the answer to that.

FYI; 20K as of today and soon to be in 5th place worldwide. Realize Thursday at 6:45 PM west coast time, we were at 7700
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
There is a vaccine, but it can only be produced in small quantities so it's only being given to NBA stars.
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Vaccines are fairly easy to produce. The current 20 or so vaccines that have been produced are in trials. Some might be actively harmful, may even kill the people that get them. Some may not provide useful protection against the virus. So this rumor makes no sense.

Why are you posting this?
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
FYI; 20K as of today and soon to be in 5th place worldwide. Realize Thursday at 6:45 PM west coast time, we were at 7700
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The huge increase is just because we're starting to actually test. The problem is that in the US we are only testing sick people, which is basically a waste of a test. It would be much better to have been testing close contacts to limit spread like South Korea did
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1241418918104829958?s=19
 
National Geographic has a nice chart that shows what exponential growth of a virus can do. Rather than try to copy the image you can see it here: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/03/uk-backed-off-on-herd-immunity-to-beat-coronavirus-we-need-it/?cmpid=org=ngp::mc=crm-email::src=ngp::cmp=editorial::add=SpecialEdition_20200320&rid=085A27D42F9D7F94C3F7C352E609951C

The basic take-away is that "you ain't seen nothing yet"
 
WetEV said:
LTLFTcomposite said:
There is a vaccine, but it can only be produced in small quantities so it's only being given to NBA stars.
Click to expand...

Vaccines are fairly easy to produce. The current 20 or so vaccines that have been produced are in trials. Some might be actively harmful, may even kill the people that get them. Some may not provide useful protection against the virus. So this rumor makes no sense.

Why are you posting this?
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Presumably a sarcastic reference to NBA players with no or minor symptoms getting tested, while normal people with more serious symptoms had to wait.
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
Testing is only one factor in the spread.

The other and by far the most important factor is VERY EARLY dissemination of "correct" facts and instructions to reduce the spread.

South Korea, Japan, etc. They have one thing in common; citizens that willingly sacrifice for the good of the country. It was their self quarantining and maintaining social distancing that was the most important step resulting in their now dropping infection rates.
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It's not just that, Singapore apparently has handled this very effectively. See https://time.com/5802293/coronavirus-covid19-singapore-hong-kong-taiwan/ for high-level info.

Taiwan has, as well. Take a look at their 124 actions at https://cdn.jamanetwork.com/ama/content_public/journal/jama/0/jvp200035supp1_prod.pdf?Expires=2147483647&Signature=bIZCLS7ZLWTJd~U~H40JgiEGdFb3ggVUJpBvJ7KdANK7HgK1zaj4uWHvqweGym1nWfO~nXt9Y5i1vX79pF7zjjqfzmJAy3udTdpVVZQe07xnQIPcBMXLwZ5XjgTO8yKFXVIpxsXhrmOu8sGSpKiEmQ86ZCKfOTar7fMAGmUCtjiYVFwf31K3REWAA-r3hZyoZpqz3QKpVgpsRpF9fV9thQCq0~yvbvRKTH4PcoB~CZgmXH7rpVb6bILXQn5zBCphf6pyLAa4zIebUEKfCdCYdSdi9LeIEUsesqsYpNWgHJcr4K1LC0hFlst0RHQz-vZ7I-OvrX~5jel6zjjtuDQzjQ__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA from https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689. Apparently, their VP is an epidemiologist (https://english.president.gov.tw/Page/41).

Taiwan only has 153 cases, 2 deaths and 28 recovered. That's not bad for a region of almost 24 million people. In comparison, California has almost 40 million, NY state has about 20 million, and WA state has under 8 million.
DaveinOlyWA said:
What we had was leadership downplaying the threat due to elections and stock market investments. Then a great reaction (which still falls far short of what is needed) well too late meaning our extreme measures would have worked in January but will not work today.

But the REAL key is our country made up of "free will" Americans. Partially due to early reports that we had little to worry about and partially due to mixed messages put out by our government, yesterday's news was telling.

Two interviews, both basically saying the same thing. A group of young people in Seattle enjoying the beautiful weather Thursday along with Spring Breakers in Florida.

When asked why they were participating in potentially dangerous activities they responded.

"We worked hard all year and deserve to have some fun so that is what we are going to do"

So how did this seed get planted in their heads? I think we all know the answer to that.
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And, some FB friends of folks I know have been trying to downplay COVID-19 as recently as a few days ago. Sigh... Sorry to go off into politics, but I learned of this idiot https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/1238935884831039503 from https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16/trump-maga-coronavirus-movement-130831. Right now at https://twitter.com/mitchellvii, it looks like all day he's been trying to downplay it, still. This guy has 550K Twitter followers. I bet his misinformation is being spread all over the place.
 
mwalsh said:
WetEV said:
If you think trumpvirus will get rid of Trump, read this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/19/with-pandemic-cover-netanyahu-is-carrying-out-coup-israel/

Another Stable Genus at work.
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I'm not going to say that could never happen here, but even with what's happened over the last 4 years I would hope not.

All I can say my friends is that it has always been my policy to have an escape plan, no matter what the circumstances. I hold multiple citizenships (it will be 3 by the end of this year), which would pretty much allow me to live anywhere in the western world I want.
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Uh oh... I hope that doesn't happen. I was born in the US and only have US citizenship. I've always joked w/my Canadian coworkers that they can flee to Canada.

On the note of Israel was https://www.npr.org/2020/03/19/818327945/israel-begins-tracking-and-texting-those-possibly-exposed-to-the-coronavirus (Israel Begins Tracking And Texting Those Possibly Exposed To The Coronavirus) that I listened to. The above article briefly mentions it.
Hundreds of Israelis were startled Wednesday by an unsolicited text message.

"Hello. According to an epidemiological investigation," it began, addressing each recipient by name. "You were near someone sick with the coronavirus. You must immediately isolate at home [14 days] to protect your relatives and the public. ... This information will be used only for this purpose and will be erased when no longer needed. Sincerely, public health services."

It's part of a sweeping new program. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the country's Shin Bet domestic spy agency, usually tasked with monitoring Palestinian and Israeli extremists, to launch the cellphone surveillance. It locates people who could have the virus and messages them.
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cwerdna said:
Hundreds of Israelis were startled Wednesday by an unsolicited text message.
"Hello. According to an epidemiological investigation," it began, addressing each recipient by name. "You were near someone sick with the coronavirus. You must immediately isolate at home [14 days] to protect your relatives and the public. ... This information will be used only for this purpose and will be erased when no longer needed. Sincerely, public health services."

It's part of a sweeping new program. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the country's Shin Bet domestic spy agency, usually tasked with monitoring Palestinian and Israeli extremists, to launch the cellphone surveillance. It locates people who could have the virus and messages them.
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We can use technology to help fight the coronavirus, or we can die like people did in 1918. How to use life saving information without enabling misuse of that information is the problem that needs a solution.

Cell networks know where everyone's phone is.
 
GRA said:
Presumably a sarcastic reference to NBA players with no or minor symptoms getting tested, while normal people with more serious symptoms had to wait.
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I thought of that. But the cases are rather different, if you think about it.

Reduction of spread isn't limited to people with symptoms. Or even people that test positive,

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rudy-gobert-nba-utah-jazz-player-tested-positive-for-coronavirus-touching-reporters-microphones-donovan/

This was an important test that changed a lot of people's behavior. Not just education for Rudy. Education for a lot of NBA fans.
 
You can help fight COVID-19 by running protein folding simulations on your computer. https://boinc.bakerlab.org/rosetta/
sars-cov-2_model.png


Currently running it on all my PCs, picking up great speed :)
 
The CDC published a report on U.S. Covid-19 stats for Feb. 12th-Mar. 16th on the 18th. I haven't figured out how to link to it using my phone, but a search for "Covid-19 fatality rate U.S." should turn it up. It probably won't be the first link listed, but look for "Severe outcomes" and/or "MMR". If you're <=19 you've got basically nothing to worry about yourself (giving it to others is a different matter, of course). The distribution seems very similar to China's.
 
Children are less likely to die, but they still become infected, some get very sick, and children have died from it. This is not the same as "basically nothing to worry about."
 
LeftieBiker said:
Reminds me of SETI at Home, which I ran for years.
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According to my favorite cal tech professor planet 9 is out there. Maybe there is life on it... though probably not.

Actually the number of extra solar planets we have found is impressive. Life found so far: none.

Then again watching our politicians, I'd buy the arguement that no intelligent life is on this planet either.
 
LeftieBiker said:
Children are less likely to die, but they still become infected, some get very sick, and children have died from it. This is not the same as "basically nothing to worry about."
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The odds of a younger person dying from Covid-19 seem to be about the same magnitude as their odds of being struck by lightning in their lifetime, and to me that qualifies as "basically nothing to worry about" - YMMV. There was one death in China, zero in the U.S. (and none in ICU either) among those <=19, up to the 16th. That doesn't imply that I recommend sheltering under tall solitary trees or being on mountain peaks or ridges during T-storms. Of course, if it mutates the risk could increase.
 

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