COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

[DaveinOlyWA]

Trump gives the only press conferences in recent memory in which many people end up knowing less that is true than they did before he started speaking. Fauci does his best, but he knows that too many corrections of The Boss and he's Fired.

That has crossed my mind. Wondering if anyone would react to someone who survived so many administrations only to have trump can him?

 

[WetEV]

Under the category of "I'm not as smart" let me list two key uncertainties:

1) Can China contain this virus? Unclear, but unlikely at what is known today.

I was wrong that China could regain control over this virus. China rose to the challenge. Will the USA?

China did an extreme lockdown of Wuhan. Welded doors shut. Can't walk the dog when the dog need to go. Door to door checking for symptoms and hauling those away to be tested and isolated for two weeks minimum. Even taking kids away from parents. The USA wouldn't stand for that. So how can the USA reduce spread enough?

Outside Wuhan, the Chinese surveillance state went into overdrive. Cellphone tracking, face recognition cameras everywhere, informers and spies, internet monitoring, the whole shebang. Tracking Covid-19 cases rather than the usual tracking down any hint of political dissent. The infected rate was small, so case tracking and isolation of cases worked. The USA wouldn't stand for that. So how can the USA track down enough cases and get them to isolate?

South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan have been very successful at this with rather less of a heavy hand, but still probably more than the USA would stand for.

A question to the Trump supporters: So how does the USA handle this?

i should have asked this question on February 8th, when it was a plot of the liberal media.

 

[WetEV]

Trump gives the only press conferences in recent memory in which many people end up knowing less that is true than they did before he started speaking. Fauci does his best, but he knows that too many corrections of The Boss and he's Fired.

That has crossed my mind. Wondering if anyone would react to someone who survived so many administrations only to have trump can him?

Trump suspects the Dow would miss Fauci. Maybe missing 5000 points or so.

Fauci wouldn't still be there without that thought.

 

[mwalsh]

Trump suspects the Dow would miss Fauci. Maybe missing 5000 points or so.

Fauci wouldn't still be there without that thought.

So the Dow's final capitulation may have begun.

I was reminded last week that after the last market crash, in the fall of 2008, the Dow made a couple of recovery attempts only see a gradual decline to a market bottom in March 2009, 54% off it's pre-crash highs.

If you look at the charts for 1929, you can see the same kind battle for recovery. Which also ended if failure.

I'd be very surprised to see history not repeat itself now, with so little in the way of positive news, and I think I'm going to stick with my original prediction that we'll see the Dow at 15,000-16,000 within the next 60-120 days.

 

[jlv]

Last night on local news, they spoke to a woman who got tested on March 11th and didn't know her results until March 28! Another woman (a Lyft or Uber driver) had to wait 9 days for her results.)

It certainly seems the US has completely botched getting testing rolled out. OTOH, my daughter's boyfriend was holed up with her in a hotel here in MA, and 10 days ago get got tested and received the results in just 24 hours.

 

[jlv]

Have you looked at how many cases and deaths they have (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

I really like the simplicity of the data shown at
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

China has been at round 81K for a long time. The US has blown past that.

These projects of the peaks in the next 2-3 weeks across the US are also scary:

http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

 

[nlspace]

"The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, the deadliest in history, infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide—about one-third of the planet’s population—and killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million victims, including some 675,000 Americans."


The PBS documentary about the "Spanish Flu" of 1918 was quite interesting.

They show it started at a military base in Kansas after a big westerly windstorm blew thru. Bunch of them felt sick and 40 died. That group got shipped over to Europe where it spread over there, then lots of soldiers came home after WW1 and the influenza spread again. It eventually ran its course and there were no more hosts available; everyone either got infected and survived, building an immunity, or they died.


Following that was a show about Polio and the March of Dimes, also interesting in that an entire population of kids was injected with an untested and unproven vaccine. A bad batch was produced the following year and sadly those kids actually contracted polio instead of being protected. Lots of in-fighting between the vaccine developers, but eventually a safe live-vaccine was developed and the viral disease was eliminated. Mayo clinic: "In the U.S., the last case of naturally occurring polio was in 1979."

 

[WetEV]

How the USA compares:

 

[WetEV]

What's better than a pandemic? A pandemic with no health insurance.

Lost your job? Don't get sick. Trump denies ACA re-opening. And Republicans are still trying to kill ACA.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/upshot/obamacare-markets-coronavirus-trump.html

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/03/republicans-could-kill-obamacare-in-the-middle-of-coronavirus-recovery

 

[cwerdna]

70 Austin Spring-Breakers Chartered A Plane To Mexico. 28 Of Them Now Have COVID-19. (from March 31, 2020)
https://www.kut.org/post/70-austin-spring-breakers-chartered-plane-mexico-28-them-now-have-covid-19

Seventy young adults are being investigated for COVID-19 exposure after taking a chartered plane to Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, for spring break roughly 10 days ago, Austin Public Health says.

Of those 70, 28 have tested positive for COVID-19, and dozens are under investigation by the public health authority; four had no symptoms

SMH

 

[cwerdna]

Anthony Fauci’s security is stepped up as doctor and face of U.S. coronavirus response receives threats
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/anthony-faucis-security-is-stepped-up-as-doctor-and-face-of-us-coronavirus-response-receives-threats/ar-BB122LOX

 

[LeftieBiker]

It appears that the messenger needs to be protected from assassination.

 

[cwerdna]

China hid extent of coronavirus outbreak, US intelligence reportedly say
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/01/coronavirus-china-hid-extent-of-outbreak-us-intelligence-reportedly-says.html

The US intelligence community has reportedly concluded that China intentionally misrepresented its coronavirus numbers
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-intelligence-found-china-misrepresented-coronavirus-stats-report-2020-4

The above two point to the below.

China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says


A post over at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/coronavirus.183324/page-410#post-4611394 prompted me to look for the story he's talking about. Not sure he got the numbers exactly right but I found https://www.npr.org/2020/04/01/825499422/ventilators-can-save-lives-of-some-covid-19-patients-but-theyre-no-panacea.

TIFFANY OSBORN: It's very concerning to see how many patients who require ventilation do not make it out of the hospital - how many of them die.

HAMILTON: Osborn is a critical care specialist at Washington University School of Medicine. She says doctors in China and Europe and elsewhere in the U.S. are reporting death rates from about 50% to more than 80%.
...
HAJIZADEH: We have had several patients between the hospitals across the Northwell health system that have come off of the breathing machine, but the vast majority are unable to.

Someone else pointed to a stat that I found at https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/01/new-york-gov-cuomo-to-close-nyc-playgrounds-as-coronavirus-death-rate-starts-to-climb.html.

The longer a patient is on a ventilator, the less of a chance they will survive, Cuomo’s previously said.

“If you go on a ventilator there is roughly only a 20% chance that you will come off the ventilator. The longer you are on the ventilator, the lower the chance that you come off,” he said.

 

[WetEV]

China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says

Models of the Chinese epidemic show rather more actual cases than reported and more deaths than reported deaths. Widespread testing only happened at the end, the numbers at the end seem more realistic. Many deaths at home, or at hospital without testing, perhaps twice as many as reported. I don't think the lack of accurate reporting was deliberate at that the peak of the epidemic, lack of resources was the main issue. An accurate retrospective report doesn't seem likely. Lack of transparency will lead to crazy conspiracy theories taken seriously.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/24/science.abb3221

Likewise, Italy's cases and deaths have been and are being under-counted. Perhaps Spain's deaths as well. Under counted cases is very common. See the United States.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

A lot of blame game going on with China's numbers

BUT

What I need to see is ANY TIME China said it was

nothing to worry about

we have it under control

its not all that fatal

Or really any language used that downplayed the seriousness of the disease. I will admit, I don't recall any such thing but the news has exploded over this and maybe China's boasting it has a handle on the virus was simply one story I missed?

What is hard NOT to miss is our administration downplaying the seriousness of the threat early on despite HUGE amounts of evidence to the contrary.

 

[nlspace]

Today on Bloomberg News, vp Pence said the US is doing 100k tests a day, and we are monitoring every county and state. And as mickey avalon says, on every street corner in America.

So that is like all 50 states are doing 2,000 tests a day. That's a big number of tests, the greatest number of tests, everybody says so.

Now the rate of new cases is 25k per day; and the daily death rate has hit 1k in the US.

So 1 of every 4 tested is infected? No matter how bad it seems, it's just gonna get worse.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

We should not be focusing on looking back on any level of government right now, this is just about how we save lives going forward
https://youtu.be/1JZ0Ruh89f0

 

[LeftieBiker]

More like three times he underestimated it, five times he was accurate, and a few grey area comments. How sad that, given all the resources needed to do it, the entity that composed that video had to resort to lying about what many of the clips portray. Typical right wing too-lazy-to-get-it-right propaganda.

 

[WetEV]

What I need to see is ANY TIME China said it was

nothing to worry about

we have it under control

its not all that fatal

Or really any language used that downplayed the seriousness of the disease. I will admit, I don't recall any such thing but the news has exploded over this and maybe China's boasting it has a handle on the virus was simply one story I missed?

In early January, after first reports leaked out of a SARS like disease in late December, local government in Wuhan and Chinese spokesmen were saying it was not transmitting person to person.

For example, this, in what what the first I read about this:

It should be mentioned that the 59 reported pneumonia patients in Wuhan were clinically diagnosed; of those, 15 were confirmed to be infected by the new coronavirus. No new patients have appeared, as far as I understand. It’s good news. People fear something like SARS in 2003, but this is a different case. The outbreak is limited, but we should test patients one by one [to identify] pneumonia caused by other pathogens.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/mystery-virus-found-wuhan-resembles-bat-viruses-not-sars-chinese-scientist-says

What is hard NOT to miss is our administration downplaying the seriousness of the threat early on despite HUGE amounts of evidence to the contrary.

In January, it is at least possible that the Chinese didn't know. Trump should have known.

 

[WetEV]

We should not be focusing on looking back on any level of government right now, this is just about how we save lives going forward

OK, you first. Tit for Tat. Trump lied, hundred thousand or more Americans will die.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/33-times-trump-downplayed-the-coronavirus/2020/03/05/790f5afb-4dda-48bf-abe1-b7d152d5138c_video.html?itid=hp_no-name_multi-video-bar%3Aposttv%2Fvideo-live-bar-2018

Whataboutism and a call for looking forward? Oh, such grand way to get agreement. :roll: :lol: Try again.


This failed response to the pandemic is what happens when you ignore science. Ignoring science is a general problem with Republicans. The South is mostly not following precautions. When and how is that going to change?

Most of what I'm hearing from the Republicans is conspiracy theories, blaming others, and still a lot of "it is just a flu". Oh, and calls for national unity under Republican 'leadership'. Trump can't lead a paper bag. Bully a paper bag, yes. Bullying a virus don't work.

Various Trump-like figures overseas have used this virus to seize more power. Hungary, Israel, Philippines, UK ... I expect Trump to try use this as a "Reichstag fire" to seize more power, with or without another election. Trust him? Like I'd trust a rattlesnake.

So forgive? Someday, not today. If Trump and Moscow Mitch resign now, maybe. I'm tired of those lying faces. Forget? Never. Fool me once, shame on you. I don't want to get fooled again. Not by Republicans, ever. Never forget. I don't want shame on me. Never forget.

So exactly what if your proposal going forwards? Do tell. Make sure you get the science correct. And do tell Trump to resign. Do it for the Republic.