COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

[WetEV]

China probably had 4 times the confirmed cases reported. The definition of a confirmed case changed over time.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.23.20041319v1

232,000 (95% CI: 161,000, 359,000) confirmed cases.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/17/836700806/china-raises-wuhan-death-stats-by-half-to-account-for-reporting-delays-and-omiss

China has revised the official death toll to 50% higher, 3869 deaths.

Probably still low.

 

[cwerdna]

https://twitter.com/JoshuaKarp/status/1251275996113833988

Joshua Karp @JoshuaKarp
Holy hell.
Today, Florida set a record of new coronavirus cases: 1,413 in the last 24 hours.
Florida’s total cases is now 24,753.
Today, @GovRonDeSantis allowed beaches back open.
This is Jacksonville beach one hour ago: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EV1s4qPXQAAcW2C.jpg

Seems authentic given the video at https://www.actionnewsjax.com/video/?id=4887400.

 

[LeftieBiker]

Given what's happening to the people trapped in nursing homes, I think that Florida is going to be competing with NYC for headlines - and winning. This virus seems to be taking elderly Americans in preference to all other groups, except the already very sick.

 

[cwerdna]

Given what's happening to the people trapped in nursing homes, I think that Florida is going to be competing with NYC for headlines - and winning. This virus seems to be taking elderly Americans in preference to all other groups, except the already very sick.

I tend to agree. Right now, surprisingly Florida is pretty low in terms of deaths per 1 million population per https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ at 35. I wonder when it'll pass the national average, which is currently at 112.

 

[LeftieBiker]

WetEV says the deaths mushroom 25 days after hospitalizations, or something like that, and it seems to be true.

I saw a piece in the NYT that suggests that putting people with respiratory distress on ventilators immediately may not be the best approach. Putting them on oxygen, with no ventilator, in a prone position, may work better. For some reason this virus tends to leave people conscious and rational with lower blood oxygen levels than is typical, so it's often possible to do this and let them get their blood oxygen saturation back up with just oxygen and a comfortable (for breathing) position.

 

[cwerdna]

I saw a piece in the NYT that suggests that putting people with respiratory distress on ventilators immediately may not be the best approach. Putting them on oxygen, with no ventilator, in a prone position, may work better. For some reason this virus tends to leave people conscious and rational with lower blood oxygen levels than is typical, so it's often possible to do this and let them get their blood oxygen saturation back up with just oxygen and a comfortable (for breathing) position.

On the first part, indeed. Gov Cuomo said that only 20% of people with COVID-19 who end up on a ventilator come off it: https://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=30885&p=581702&hilit=ventilator#p581702

I wonder how much ECMO helps for people on vents that are in bad shape?
https://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=30885&p=581643&hilit=ecmo#p581643

 

[LeftieBiker]

The 20% ventilator survival rate has been pretty widely quoted. This is one of the reasons (the other being shortage of ventilators, obviously) that alternatives have been tried. Much of the reason for the low survival rate is that heavy sedation is required for most people on ventilators. I know that I would require it. This weakens the body further.

Let's hope that we don't see the need for portable heart-lung machines. They might save some people, but trying to use them in large numbers would likely be a disaster.

 

[cwerdna]

While digging around for a pic of an ECMO machine, I found this:
Phoenix man first Arizonan to survive COVID-19 due to ECMO treatment
https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/04/14/phoenix-man-first-arizonan-survive-covid-19-due-ecmo-treatment/2991613001/

 

[LeftieBiker]

Ad block blocker. Short excerpt:

A Phoenix man is the first in Arizona to survive COVID-19 through a rare form of treatment called extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) therapy.

Enes Dedic, 53, was on the brink of death with a ventilator until his doctors at HonorHealth used ECMO as a last resort. Dedic is among the first U.S. COVID-19 patients to survive the disease by using the treatment...

 

[WetEV]

Given what's happening to the people trapped in nursing homes, I think that Florida is going to be competing with NYC for headlines - and winning. This virus seems to be taking elderly Americans in preference to all other groups, except the already very sick.

I tend to agree. Right now, surprisingly Florida is pretty low in terms of deaths per 1 million population per https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ at 35. I wonder when it'll pass the national average, which is currently at 112.

I'm not as pessimistic on Florida beaches reopening as some seem to be. If mostly locals, and if distancing is followed, shouldn't be an issue.

Mayor Lenny Curry said Duval County beaches were reopening Friday afternoon with restricted hours, and they can only be used for walking, biking, hiking, fishing, running, swimming, taking care of pets and surfing.

The beaches will be open from 6 to 11 a.m. and 5 to 8 p.m., Curry said in a video posted to social media. Gatherings of 50 or more people are prohibited and people must still practice social distancing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/gov-ron-desantis-gives-some-florida-beaches-green-light-to-reopen.html

 

[cwerdna]

How does coronavirus kill? Clinicians trace a ferocious rampage through the body, from brain to toes
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes

Unfortunately, I'm no a doctor so I can't vouch for the accuracy of their claims. I know ACE2 receptors have come up in the interview w/the Korean professor of infectious diseases (was interviewed by Asian Boss on YouTube). Cytokine storms have come up on coronavirus discussions on "TMC".

 

[Nubo]

The thing that stands out to me is how some people are totally asymptomatic while others get so sick. Do the former have some kind of pre-existing immunity? And is it innate or acquired? If the latter were true it could suggest a treatment.

 

[WetEV]

The thing that stands out to me is how some people are totally asymptomatic while others get so sick. Do the former have some kind of pre-existing immunity? And is it innate or acquired? If the latter were true it could suggest a treatment.

Sure, if the virus was well understood it might have weakness that a treatment could target.

The virus isn't well understood.

Not this treatment.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-17/malaria-drugs-fails-to-help-coronavirus-patients-in-controlled-studies

Of course, Don The Conman is still hyping it.

 

[WetEV]

The thing that stands out to me is how some people are totally asymptomatic while others get so sick. Do the former have some kind of pre-existing immunity? And is it innate or acquired? If the latter were true it could suggest a treatment.

Oh, and one more thing.

Dose of virus matters. If you (or a lab animal) get exposed to a tiny dose of virus, you might get immune with no symptoms. If you get exposed to a huge dose of virus, you are far more likely to become seriously ill.

Even a simple mask you are wearing can halve the dose of virus you might receive. Wearing a mask if shedding virus can reduce the dose that escapes by a factor of 100. Not only fewer cases, but more asymptotic cases. Not wearing a mask in public yet? Need any more hints??

 

[WetEV]

Check the calendar.
[youtube]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ch7_t2Ri2Zg[/youtube]

 

[cwerdna]

^^^ Good video but a repost of the below:

Before? More could've been done instead of blowing things off and downplaying. Take look at the sound clips from the fired communications director at https://twitter.com/scaramucci/status/1240985096838053889. I remember most of them but can't vouch for the accuracy of the dates.

I watched this earlier today and found it was decent. You can think of his as a South Korean version of Dr. Fauci.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU

This professor been involved with infection diseases for about 30 years. He seems like a very humble man. Unfortunately, it's all in Korean but has English subtitles. So, unless you understand Korean, you'll have to watch and read the subtitles.

I finally watched a followup video with the same professor last night: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwoNP9QWr4Y. Was good.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BE-cA4UK07c is in English and about 8 minutes long which shows up South Korea has been handling COVID-19.

 

[Nubo]

The thing that stands out to me is how some people are totally asymptomatic while others get so sick. Do the former have some kind of pre-existing immunity? And is it innate or acquired? If the latter were true it could suggest a treatment.

Sure, if the virus was well understood it might have weakness that a treatment could target.

The virus isn't well understood. ...

What I'm saying is it could be possible to identify a common factor in the asymptomatic group that could be exploited, even without exhaustive knowledge of COVID-19. For example if some less-lethal illness in their past granted them an immunity to COVID-19. But your point on viral dose is well-taken.

 

[LeftieBiker]

My extremely lay, under-educated guess is that people who have weak immune systems and those with immune systems that are capable of producing too strong a response are the groups worst affected, while those with relatively normal, moderately powerful immune systems are the ones with mild or no symptoms. I will likely be proven wrong. I'm also staying off the ACE inhibitor for the time being, because of the ACE 2 protein issue...

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

It's possible the whole thing wasn't as bad as it was made out to be

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-antibodies-widespread-in-santa-clara.html

 

[LeftieBiker]

Yes, those tens of thousands of people who died horribly are just a government lie. Right? A virus that doesn't make most people deathly ill, but that infects others in large numbers before or without symptoms, is not something you want around.