COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

[cwerdna]

Coverage from a protest in PA this morning:
https://www.facebook.com/cnn/videos/362600778024619/

 

[cwerdna]

It's possible the whole thing wasn't as bad as it was made out to be

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-antibodies-widespread-in-santa-clara.html

We're past 40K deaths in the US now (https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/2020-04-20-coronavirus-news-n1187556; 41.6K per https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ right now). On April 11, the US passed 20K https://abcnews.go.com/US/coronavirus-updates-michael-avenatti-granted-temporary-release-prison/story?id=70098434. (First death in the US seemed to be Feb 29: https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/29/health/us-coronavirus-saturday/index.html.)

To make comparisons to seasonal flu are crazy, the 12K to 61K annual deaths in the US from that (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html) are made with ZERO social distancing efforts, no stay at home orders, no closing of schools, prohibition of visiting nursing homes, no closing of non-essential businesses, no limits on how size of gatherings + people in stores, etc. There is a semi-effective flu vaccine each year that almost half of the US population gets each year AND effective treatments (e.g. tamiflu). Also, humans have built up some immunity to it over time unlike a novel (new) virus.

There's no COVID-19 vaccine nor proven effective treatment yet.

And, there are problems w/false positives of tests if the disease isn't that widespread on the tested population. I listened to https://www.npr.org/transcripts/834497497 a few days ago.

HARRIS: The test he's using boasts a specificity of 99%, which means it only falsely says a blood sample has antibodies when it doesn't just 1% of the time. But despite that impressive statistic, a test like this is not 99% correct and, in fact, in some circumstances could be much, much worse. That's because of this counterintuitive fact. The validity of a test depends not only on the test itself but, oddly, on how common the disease is in the population you're sampling.

GILBERT WELCH: It is kind of a strange thing.

HARRIS: Dr. Gilbert Welch is a scientist at Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston.

WELCH: An antibody test is much more likely to be wrong in a population with very little COVID exposure.

INSKEEP: Richard, I think we need to slow down here. Why would the...

HARRIS: OK.

INSKEEP: ...Accuracy of a test depend on how common the disease is in a population?

HARRIS: Yeah, that is surprising. But here's a simple way to look at it. Say you are running a test that gives five falsely positive results in 100 people. Sounds like pretty good odds, right? But...

INSKEEP: Yeah.

HARRIS: But consider this, Steve - if 5% of a population is infected and you run the test on 100 people, you should get five true positives, but you also have those five false positives.

INSKEEP: Oh.

HARRIS: And Welch says there's no way to know which is which.

WELCH: The tests will be wrong half the time. Half the people will be falsely reassured.

HARRIS: So it's basically a coin flip.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

social distancing efforts, no stay at home orders, no closing of schools, prohibition of visiting nursing homes, no closing of non-essential businesses, no limits on how size of gatherings + people in stores, etc.

There is no scientific evidence those actions had any effect on the spread of he virus. We don't have a "control world" where none of that was done to compare the outcomes, so it's all anecdotal.

 

[cwerdna]

social distancing efforts, no stay at home orders, no closing of schools, prohibition of visiting nursing homes, no closing of non-essential businesses, no limits on how size of gatherings + people in stores, etc.

There is no scientific evidence those actions had any effect on the spread of he virus. We don't have a "control world" where none of that was done to compare the outcomes, so it's all anecdotal.

:roll:
There's been some historical precedent (e.g. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/).

COVID-19 is extremely contagious. 712 ended up testing positive for COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e3.htm. This is what happened due to a Biogen conference: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/health/coronavirus-massachusetts-state-of-emergency/index.html. The conference was only two days.

2 deaths, 45 coronavirus cases linked to Skagit Valley choir practice on March 10
https://www.king5.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/two-covid-19-deaths-linked-to-skagit-valley-choir-practice/281-7c1d67fe-dc0a-42d1-9537-e4dfb7ab3d1a

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/what-we-can-all-learn-from-south-koreas-super-spreader-of-coronavirus-patient-31/ar-BB11cpH2 is one of many stories about the church/cult in South Korea.

In South Korea, Daegu became the epicentre of coronavirus.

In early March, the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that 63.5 per cent of all confirmed cases in the country were “related to Shincheonji [Church of Jesus].”

Now in South Korea, as of reporting, there have been 8,162 confirmed cases of the coronavirus and 75 deaths.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/02/826360394/seattle-area-nursing-home-linked-to-dozens-of-coronavirus-deaths-faces-600-000-f had at least 37 people die. Per https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-kirkland-washington-nursing-home-coronvirus-2020-3#the-number-of-cases-increased-by-march-7-26-people-had-died-with-some-connection-to-the-nursing-home-this-included-13-people-who-died-in-hospitals-and-who-were-confirmed-to-have-the-coronavirus-in-a-typical-month-the-nursing-home-had-between-3-and-7-deaths-18 and others "In a typical month, the nursing home had between 3 and 7 deaths."

The above is happening at other nursing home around the US now. At least 13 have died at https://www.ktvu.com/news/da-investigating-hayward-nursing-facility-where-13-died-of-coronavirus here in the Bay Area.

When I wrote https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=582441#p582441, over 600 aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt tested positive, where it was impossible to socially distance.

You see what happened at Smithfield Foods pork processing plant?
https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=30885&p=582433&hilit=smithfield#p582433

 

[WetEV]

There is no scientific evidence those actions had any effect on the spread of he virus. We don't have a "control world" where none of that was done to compare the outcomes, so it's all anecdotal.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germ_theory_of_disease

 

[mwalsh]

There is no scientific evidence those actions had any effect on the spread of he virus. We don't have a "control world" where none of that was done to compare the outcomes, so it's all anecdotal.

Sweden. Almost double the number of deaths as in Denmark, 75% more than Norway, and 90% more than Finland.

And, yes, I will concede that Sweden has a larger and more dense population than the others.

 

[cwerdna]

^^^
One can visit https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries and sort by deaths per 1 million population to confirm the relative rankings. At the moment, those countries are at 156, 63, 33 and 18, respectively. USA stands at 128.

Will be interesting to see in about 2-4 weeks from now rankings for that stat at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ to see where they stand for states that begin relaxing shutdowns/social distancing and that had such protests w/their lack of social distancing.

 

[LeftieBiker]

I tried out a new connecting bike and walking trail yesterday. It runs from the city across the river from me, to a longer bike trail about 3 miles away. There were groups of people walking it, sans masks for the most part, people walking dogs, runners, other bicyclists. Maybe 25% of them were wearing masks. The main bike trail was far worse - it was more like riding through mall walkers - many with dogs, most without masks. The dirt section of the path was in rough shape. I rode home on the roads, as it seemed far safer there.

 

[GRA]

It is somewhat amazing to me the number of people who, as soon as they get on a hiking trail, immediately ignore distancing/masking.

I walk every evening)/night in my neighborhood, and whenever two people approach each other on the sidewalk one of them invariably steps into the street on the far side of parked cars, or else crosses to the other sidewalk. This eliminates the need for masks most of the time, although many are wearing them or like me have them ready to pull up if distancing isn't possible.

But as soon as you step on a hiking trail or even a paved road in a natural area, the percentage of people ignoring such measures doubles or triples. I'm at a loss to explain why people feel the need to walk 3 or 4 abreast with their kids running around freely from side to side, forcing those of us who are trying to behave responsibly to make wide forays off-trail to avoid them. There must be some psychological explanation.

OTOH, I made one of my rare forays into a Walmart yesterday, and you'd never have known that the county had made wearing a mask indoors in public spaces mandatory the day before - not were any signs saying that. I guess ignorance is supposed to confer immunity.

 

[cwerdna]

This has been making the rounds. Here's someone who didn't take COVID-19 seriously and supports the protestors but now can't get tested because they got sick a month later.
https://twitter.com/C_HAWK_CIARA/status/1239284157659799552
https://twitter.com/C_HAWK_CIARA/status/1251866214218887169

Copies at http://archive.is/hp47N and http://archive.is/8L3XT to prevent revision history. Their tweets are somewhat disturbing: https://twitter.com/C_HAWK_CIARA.

OT: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bouNxd2F9_s, I haven't heard of this being a consequence but have heard of blood clotting issues affecting some who are infected.

 

[Johnt8]

There is no scientific evidence those actions had any effect on the spread of he virus. We don't have a "control world" where none of that was done to compare the outcomes, so it's all anecdotal.

My country, New Zealand, did all these things and more, four weeks ago while we had no deaths and few cases. Our lockdown is now gradually relaxing and we are looking at elimination of covid-19 as a realistic outcome.
From my perspective there are many examples of the "control world" where these did not happen until it was way too late.

 

[downeykp]

John awesome to hear from someone from NZ. Spent a couple of weeks there last year. Awesome country.
We have people here who think this is all a lot of overkill. If it was not for social distancing and people staying away from other people our numbers would be cataclysmic. All that those on the right can say is that 40,000 deaths is not worth the trouble. They are not making the connection that without people staying away from people it would be much worse. We are looking at a huge second wave because of these Trumpian idiots.
You are lucky that you have a government that functions. The talent pool in our government has been diluted to the point that Teflon Don does not let anyone know what is really happening.
The USA cannot afford another 4.5 years of this idiot at the helm.

 

[cwerdna]

social distancing efforts, no stay at home orders, no closing of schools, prohibition of visiting nursing homes, no closing of non-essential businesses, no limits on how size of gatherings + people in stores, etc.

There is no scientific evidence those actions had any effect on the spread of he virus. We don't have a "control world" where none of that was done to compare the outcomes, so it's all anecdotal.

Perhaps you should skip to about 8:34 of https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU and ask yourself how orders like https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/order-health-officer-033120.aspx under "For the purposes of this Order, “Essential Travel” means travel for any of the following purposes:..." reduce contact and the chance of contact with others who may be infected or touching surfaces that have COVID-19 and reduce the chance of spreading it if you have it.

Look at these additional nursing home deaths. Obviously, they didn't or couldn't socially distance and totally avoid contact and vectors (e.g. staff, visitors, surfaces, etc.)

https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/04/20/coronavirus-federal-nursing-home-deaths/

Because the federal government has not been releasing a count of its own, The Associated Press has been keeping its own tally from media reports and state health departments, finding at least 8,426 deaths linked to coronavirus outbreaks in nursing homes and long-term care facilities nationwide.
...
“It’s fair to say nursing homes have been ground zero” for the virus, Verma said, noting that the Life Care Center nursing home in Washington state became the first COVID-19 hot spot in the U.S. That outbreak eventually claimed 43 lives.

Some of the biggest outbreaks since have included 55 deaths at a nursing home in the Crown Heights section of Brooklyn, 49 at a home outside Richmond, Virginia, 48 at a veteran’s home in Holyoke, Mass., and at least 40 deaths each at five homes in outer boroughs of New York City.

https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/coronavirus/2020/04/16/coronavirus-nj-state-sends-team-help-andover-nursing-home/5144923002/

State officials said a total of 35 residents had died at the home since the end of March, with 19 of those deaths linked to COVID-19. The Andover home, which is made up of two separate buildings, is the state's largest long-term care facility, with almost 700 beds and more than 500 residents.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

That's why testing is so important!
(just kidding, testing doesn't accomplish anything, but the groupthink is totally out of control)

 

[cwerdna]

That's why testing is so important!
(just kidding, testing doesn't accomplish anything, but the groupthink is totally out of control)

So, it's better to fly blind?

By itself and not in enough quantities and where there's too much friction to get even tested (long waits in line, not enough kits, strict criteria to even be tested), too slow to get results, no teeth when it comes to quarantines, no contact tracing, etc. it's mostly useless other than to generate some numbers. Since testing is so uneven and woefully lacking in the US, for now, I pay more attention to deaths per million at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/.

Perhaps if you watched https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BE-cA4UK07c (8 minutes) w/an open mind and saw what South Korea did to test, contact trace, quarantine and alert people as to where someone infected might be/might've traveled (so that they can get tested), you might understand part of what's gone wrong in the US?

Did you bother to read the Reuters story below?

The reality is this is just a tough situation and there wasn't anything anyone could have done or can do now to make it all rainbows.

Now? The cat is way out of the bag. It's out of control and testing was woefully insufficient for weeks. It still seems problematic in the US.

Good luck trying to test, trace and isolate now. In some communities, it's WAY beyond that and impossible, even if there were widely available testing. (AFAIK, there's no tracing going on in my county. Last night on local news, they spoke to a woman who got tested on March 11th and didn't know her results until March 28! Another woman (a Lyft or Uber driver) had to wait 9 days for her results.)
...
South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore have handled things pretty well.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-testing-specialrep/special-report-how-korea-trounced-u-s-in-race-to-test-people-for-coronavirus-idUSKBN2153BW
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/28/trump-coronavirus-politics-us-health-disaster - South Korea and the US apparently got their 1st cases of COVID-19 on Jan 20th.

Have you looked at how many cases and deaths they have (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html)? Yes, they're way smaller countries/regions but even if you multiply by how many times the US population is vs. theirs, we're doing poorly w/hospitals getting overloaded in NYC. It seems likely that problem will soon spread.

Right now, South Korea still only has 237 deaths from COVID-19 per https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html. Yes, their population is under 16% of ours but we are past 42K deaths and many times 237 die in a day in the US from COVID-19.

Even https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/ wants contact tracing. Dr. Fauci and other medical experts have brought it up numerous times. Also, look at their proposed gating criteria for entering each phase, which mentions testing and why.

Here's what California unveiled recently:
https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/04/14/governor-newsom-outlines-six-critical-indicators-the-state-will-consider-before-modifying-the-stay-at-home-order-and-other-covid-19-interventions/
https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/California-Roadmap-to-Modify-the-Stay-at-Home-Order.pdf

I'm almost all the way thru this 16:47 video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaR1StKajvY. Is insightful and might be a preview of what the US might have to go through.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

"Contact tracing" is another groupthink line, but totally useless in this situation. Works great for STDs like AIDS where even the most promiscuous can usually recall who they did it with, but the Woohoo virus is so contagious just passing within a few feet of someone may be enough to transmit it. You quickly find everyone has had indirect contact with the entire human race.

Hiring a bunch of people to do contact tracing is fine if you want to make busywork for all the people you're paying anyway with the money you printed, but it won't change any outcomes.

 

[WetEV]

"Contact tracing" is another groupthink line, but totally useless in this situation. Works great for STDs like AIDS where even the most promiscuous can usually recall who they did it with, but the Woohoo virus is so contagious just passing within a few feet of someone may be enough to transmit it. You quickly find everyone has had indirect contact with the entire human race.

Hiring a bunch of people to do contact tracing is fine if you want to make busywork for all the people you're paying anyway with the money you printed, but it won't change any outcomes.

Contact tracing works in South Korea for covid-19.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

"Contact tracing" is another groupthink line, but totally useless in this situation. Works great for STDs like AIDS where even the most promiscuous can usually recall who they did it with, but the Woohoo virus is so contagious just passing within a few feet of someone may be enough to transmit it. You quickly find everyone has had indirect contact with the entire human race.

Hiring a bunch of people to do contact tracing is fine if you want to make busywork for all the people you're paying anyway with the money you printed, but it won't change any outcomes.

Contact tracing works in South Korea for covid-19.

You don't know that. It's anecdotal. We don't have another version of South Korea that didn't do contact tracing to compare it to. There could be many other reasons that explain why South Korea or any other place is having whatever outcomes they are.

Meanwhile, the six foot rule is being questioned, so there goes your bluetooth app out the window. Not that that would have ever worked because it can also be transmitted by touching surfaces.

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-why-6-feet-may-not-be-enough-social-distance

 

[WetEV]

We don't have another version of South Korea that didn't do contact tracing to compare it to.

Yawn. There must be some reason why reality doesn't match your political opinion.

There could be many other reasons that explain why South Korea or any other place is having whatever outcomes they are.

Pigs could fly. :lol:

Meanwhile, the six foot rule is being questioned, so there goes your bluetooth app out the window. Not that that would have ever worked because it can also be transmitted by touching surfaces.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-why-6-feet-may-not-be-enough-social-distance

No distance is "completely totally safe". What matters is the spreading factor R.

R>1 the infection explodes
R<1 the infection goes away

R=1.00 is a tipping point. South Korea and others have gotten the R factor below 1, or there would be dead on the streets. South Korea is a democracy.

Maybe we can learn something. Or maybe not.

 

[downeykp]

Taiwan, and NZ have done a remarkable job containing Covid. Taiwan sent health professionals to Wuhan in Dec. They knew what they needed to do, unlike the US. It is much easier to be proactive than reactive. They also have a functioning government with people who are allowed to do their jobs. They are also less than 100 miles away. So people working together can accomplish great things.

They repatriated all of their citizens with a government ride from the airport to their place of residence to begin a 14 day quarantine. They tracked their every move via cell phones. Alerts came up and were acted upon if they tried to leave their home. Any domestic cases were followed up with contact tracing. So to infer that this is all anecdotal is pure republican horse ****.

Keep up the good work gentleman.