COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

[WetEV]

Two more community cases. One in Oregon, one in Everett WA

Employee of Forest Hills Elementary School in Lake Oswego.

High school student at Jackson High School, near Everett.

 

[cwerdna]

I listened to this story.
As New Coronavirus Cases Slow In China, Factories Start Reopening
https://www.npr.org/transcripts/810334985

E FENG: That's Cloud Zhao, a sales director at the company. Restarting production was a lengthy process. They first had to provide local officials a full list of all employees.

ZHAO: (Through interpreter) This list is analyzed by the public security bureau. And using big data, they determine which workers are safe and can come back to work in the factory.

E FENG: By big data, Zhao is referring to a new government app developed to help control the spread of the virus. Workers enter their national ID number and phone number. The app then spits out which cities and provinces the worker has visited in the last two weeks. If they've passed through a heavily infected area, they must quarantine for two weeks before they return to Xusheng's production line. And that's just the first step.

That's an interesting ummm... "benefit" to the Big Brotherism over there.

I hadn't thought of this angle before:

E FENG: Chen also recently imported South Korean manufacturing equipment for a new production line and needs the Korean engineers who designed the tools to help install them. But now that South Korea is reporting ever-rising numbers of new coronavirus cases...

CHEN: (Through interpreter) They can't come to China. Before, they didn't dare; now they're not allowed.

E FENG: So now the equipment is just sitting in his factory unused. Chen says long-term plans are now impossible to make. The situation is just changing too fast.

1st coronavirus death in the US (in WA state)
https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/department-health-confirms-first-coronavirus-death-washington-state/XIDPHMLVOJAAREQ5YCL75367PU/

 

[WetEV]

Big Brotherism:

“Green code, travel freely. Red or yellow, report immediately.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/business/china-coronavirus-surveillance.html

 

[cwerdna]

2 now dead from coronavirus in Washington state, 13 total tested positive
https://www.king5.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/washington-cases-of-coronavirus/281-67146033-877c-44d1-9bc0-ada91226156b

 

[Oilpan4]

It's likely being spread by people who think they just have a cold and aren't going to waste $300 to see Dr for a cold if it isn't even flu like.

 

[cwerdna]

Twitter encouraging employees to WFH
https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/company/2020/keeping-our-employees-and-partners-safe-during-coronavirus.html

Beginning today, we are strongly encouraging all employees globally to work from home if they’re able. Our goal is to lower the probability of the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus for us - and the world around us. We are operating out of an abundance of caution and the utmost dedication to keeping our Tweeps healthy.
...
Working from home will be mandatory for employees based in our Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea offices due in part to government restrictions. Our criteria will evolve over time as we get more information, and we will communicate to affected Tweeps as appropriate

There also have been 4 more deaths in WA state.

https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/two-dozen-emergency-workers-quarantined-possible-coronavirus/JJD6ZERIZBG2FEF5HDZIULIIJM/

KING COUNTY, Wash. — Two dozen emergency workers are off the job as they are being monitored for possible exposure to the coronavirus.
As of Monday morning, 27 firefighters and two police officers are currently in quarantine.

 

[WetEV]

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/china-s-aggressive-measures-have-slowed-coronavirus-they-may-not-work-other-countries

Much of the report focuses on understanding how China achieved what many public health experts thought was impossible: containing the spread of a widely circulating respiratory virus. “China has rolled out perhaps the most ambitious, agile, and aggressive disease containment effort in history,” the report notes.

 

[cwerdna]

New coronavirus cases in Western Washington are likely doubling every 6 days, Fred Hutch scientist says
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/new-coronavirus-cases-in-western-washington-are-likely-doubling-every-6-days-fred-hutch-scientist-says/

"Fred Hutch" was a nickname I often heard for Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center when I lived in WA.

 

[cwerdna]

Amazon employee in Seattle has tested positive for illness caused by coronavirus
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/amazon/amazon-employee-in-seattle-has-tested-positive-for-illness-caused-by-coronavirus/

 

[WetEV]

Another cruise ship.

https://www.businessinsider.com/princess-cruise-passenger-dies-coronavirus-ship-heads-for-san-francisco-2020-3

 

[mwalsh]

As a family, we decided this morning that there was no need to fly back to the UK next week for my father's funeral. To do so would have put me though three international airports (LAX, LHR, and MAN) twice. Plus on 4 airplanes, for a total of about 24 hours in the air.

I can't tell you the number of times I've flown back to Europe during winter previously and gotten sick with a cold or flu. It's almost all of them, really. So, naturally, I'd be teeing myself up nicely for Coronavirus.

And so about two hours ago I read that a screener at LAX has tested positive.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-04/lax-screener-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-is-now-under-isolated-sources-say

 

[LeftieBiker]

Not that the symptoms are really that similar, but has anyone else here started being reminded of the "The Strain"...?

 

[cwerdna]

The Andromeda Strain? Hope it doesn't turn into The Stand... I've seen the movie (likely https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0066769/) ages ago and a TV mini-series of the latter (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0108941/) also long ago.

 

[cwerdna]

Another cruise ship.

https://www.businessinsider.com/princess-cruise-passenger-dies-coronavirus-ship-heads-for-san-francisco-2020-3

Thanks for that. Hadn't realized this was from the Grand Princess which normally (?) docks in San Francisco, not the Diamond Princess that was stuck docked in Japan.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/03/04/coronavirus-princess-cruises-ship-met-protest-over-no-testing/4950651002/ mentions some issues that other cruise ships faced.

 

[LeftieBiker]

Some future historian will be asked to explain cruise ships. They will probably answer "They were floating laboratories used to test various biological pathogens on humans in a controlled environment."

 

[downeykp]

I still think that we need to keep this in perspective. This year in the US (since October) 46 million people have gotten the flu. 46,000 have died.
Washington Post.
Everyone needs to quit buying into the sensational BS. Be clean, don't touch your face and wash your hands.
I have taken 5 flights starting in Hawaii and 4 in Australia in the last 2 weeks. I will not stop living because of this. That said, I have never been more intuned to washing my hands and not touching my face. But everyone needs to do what they need to do, but overreacting will not help.

 

[LeftieBiker]

This is one of those situations where ONLY "overreacting" early on, when something can be done, will prevent disaster later on. It now appears that COVID-19 is three to fourteen times as lethal as influenza, depending on age, health and other groupings, as well as being more contagious, especially in crowds. The math in that case is a bit different. Influenza is seasonal, and so far we have no idea whether or not COVID-19 fades away with Winter. CV isn't going to wipe out humanity or end civilization, but then neither did the Swine Flu. That isn't required for it to be a disaster. I'm actually trying to stay calm about this, but if I catch this one, I fit the profile for dying from it quite well.

 

[cwerdna]

This is one of those situations where ONLY "overreacting" early on, when something can be done, will prevent disaster later on. It now appears that COVID-19 is three to fourteen times as lethal as influenza, depending on age, health and other groupings, as well as being more contagious, especially in crowds. The math in that case is a bit different. Influenza is seasonal, and so far we have no idea whether or not COVID-19 fades away with Winter.

Yep. I've heard figures of around 1% to 3.4% (recently from WHO) mortality for COVID-19. And yes, the mortality rate seems to be much worse for older people (e.g. if the graph at https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-age-older-people-higher-risk-2020-2 is correct).

But, if there are lots of people running around who never tested positive or were never tested and didn't die, the mortality rate becomes much lower. Unfortunately, we don't have enough now. Due to the lack of folks having been tested in the US, for all we know there could be tons of people who have it in the US and might be spreading it.

IIRC, seasonal influenza mortality rate is around 0.1%, so we'd be talking 10 to 34x more lethal.

Re: fading away with winter, yeah we don't know either. I've heard some doctors thinking no but the news from Singapore (e.g. https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/2-new-covid-19-cases-in-singapore-including-non-teaching-staff-at-pre-school-at) seems to suggest maybe it might. It's hot and humid in Singapore all year round. I went there in Nov 2017 and uh... it was definitely that.

From the above piece: "This brings the total number of cases here [Singapore] to 112, of which 79 have fully recovered."

I also listened to this story recently: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/03/809904660/why-the-death-rate-from-coronavirus-is-plunging-in-china. Transcript at https://www.npr.org/transcripts/809904660.

 

[Nubo]

I still think that we need to keep this in perspective. This year in the US (since October) 46 million people have gotten the flu. 46,000 have died.
Washington Post.
Everyone needs to quit buying into the sensational BS.

I think recognizing that it's highly contagious and the fatality rate is mich higher than flu is a reasonable perspective. If 46 million people end up with this, expect a million dead. What is it exactly that I'm not supposed to "buy into"?

 

[cwerdna]

^^^
Yep. US population is about 327 million. If 20% receive it and 1% of those die, that's 654K extra deaths.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html shows annual deaths of about 12K to 61K from the flu in the US each year.

Although some doctors who weren't very old in Wuhan when they died (some as young as 29 per https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-02-25/doctors-fighting-coronavirus-in-china-die-of-both-infection-and-fatigue), I'm not incredibly worried about dying from it due to my age and current age group stats. If I were 70+ and/or had underlying medical conditions, I'd be very worried.