COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

My Nissan Leaf Forum

Help Support My Nissan Leaf Forum:

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, and others.
Covid-19 Likely in U.S. in Mid-December 2019, CDC Scientists Report
New analysis of blood donations finds virus was present on West Coast earlier than previously believed
https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-likely-in-u-s-in-mid-december-2019-cdc-scientists-report-11606782449

You may not be able to read most of the story due to the paywall but I was able to find the study at https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472.
 
cwerdna said:
Covid-19 Likely in U.S. in Mid-December 2019, CDC Scientists Report
New analysis of blood donations finds virus was present on West Coast earlier than previously believed
Click to expand...

We would mostly learn of a new disease like this by excess hospitalizations and deaths. If the death rate was 1%, there would be hundreds of cases before enough deaths to notice something new was happening. Even more, as death is delayed from infection.

Hundreds of cases mean LOG2(hundreds), or around 8 doubling times. With about a week doubling time, that's around two months from first case to a small chance noticing that something is spreading.

First death in the USA might have been Feb 6th, so first case would be likely been in December. Yea, lots of things make this more complex than this... mutations, superspreader type disease, travel, etc.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/22/840836618/1st-known-u-s-covid-19-death-was-on-feb-6-a-post-mortem-test-reveals

The virus has significantly mutated at least once. Not counting the random "junk" mutations that don't change the active parts of the code. Speculation: suppose that this virus has been circulating at fairly low levels for years, and had a mutation in about September 2019 that made it much more likely to spread and cause serious disease. Then the first US case might have been years or even decades ago...

Only a tiny fraction of infected people cause the vast majority of new cases, aka "superspreaders". Speculation: If the first case just happened to be a superspreader in a crowded place, leading to many additional superspreaders, the number of cases might explode much faster than average at first, when the number of cases is fairly small and the variability of spread is large due to small numbers.
 
cwerdna said:
Covid-19 Likely in U.S. in Mid-December 2019, CDC Scientists Report
New analysis of blood donations finds virus was present on West Coast earlier than previously believed
https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-likely-in-u-s-in-mid-december-2019-cdc-scientists-report-11606782449

You may not be able to read most of the story due to the paywall but I was able to find the study at https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472.
Click to expand...
There's a thread at https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1333647437869633537?s=20 that says:
I don't think that this study by Basavaraju et al from @CDCgov can be taken as evidence that #COVID19 was circulating in the US in December 2019. 1/10
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472
Click to expand...
Their profile at https://twitter.com/trvrb says
Scientist @fredhutch, studying viruses, evolution and immunity. Collection of #COVID19 threads here: https://bedford.io/misc/twitter/
Click to expand...
 
LeftieBiker said:
I assume that he got a goose egg-sized swelling on his arm, rather than his whole arm changing to the shape of one. When I was about 9?, I got an injection of penicillin for some mishap or other. My arm actually did swell along its whole length, and I got a fairly high fever as well. I don't relish the thought of repeating that, so I'll probably wait for whatever vaccine is least likely to cause that kind of reaction.
Click to expand...

Gout is one of the most intense pains anyone can experience.

Shingles vaccine can cause a gout attack in less 1% of cases. How do I know this you might ask? My first of two shingles shots was followed by a gout attack, the third attack I've had. To be protected against shingles, I needed a second shot.

I got the second shot. Sweaty palms, to be sure.

Gout pain goes away. Shingles can go on for years.

And I've learned today that other vaccinations might trigger gout.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31366470/

I'll get the Covid vaccine, even if it triggers a gout attack, swells my arm, and makes me sick and feverish for a day. I can live through that. My cousin and uncle didn't live through Covid.
 
Interesting. For me, my first shingles shot was a non-event. The second one made my arm sore and I had some flu-ish symptoms. At the time I thought maybe the first shot was a dud since the effects were so different. I guess it's sort of a crap-shoot on these things although the end result is certainly worth any minor inconvenience. Sorry to hear about the loss of your family members.
 
goldbrick said:
Interesting. For me, my first shingles shot was a non-event. The second one made my arm sore and I had some flu-ish symptoms. At the time I thought maybe the first shot was a dud since the effects were so different. I guess it's sort of a crap-shoot on these things although the end result is certainly worth any minor inconvenience. Sorry to hear about the loss of your family members.
Click to expand...

The second was like yours. Before I took it, I was on a low protein diet for a few days, and drank a river of water to reduce my uric acid and thus my gout risk. No gout the second time.

I think that the second shot usually has more side effects.

Thanks for condolences, both to you and others earlier.
 
goldbrick said:
Interesting. For me, my first shingles shot was a non-event. The second one made my arm sore and I had some flu-ish symptoms. At the time I thought maybe the first shot was a dud since the effects were so different. ...
Click to expand...

The first exposure sensitizes your immune system. When presented with the 2nd exposure it mounts a more rigorous defense.
 
I'm near the end of the line. For me:
Based on your risk profile, we believe you’re in line behind 268.7 million people across the United States.

When it comes to California, we think you’re behind 31.0 million others who are at higher risk in your state.

And in [what I entered] County, you’re behind 1.4 million others...
Click to expand...
CA population is just shy of 40 million.
 
The interesting/unknown part to me is how many people further ahead in line will decline/refuse or wait for others to try it first and see what the effects/effectiveness are.

After all, we have so many people who think it's COVID-19 is no big deal, it's a hoax, are anti-mask, refuse to wear a mask, will they be willing to be/seek out vaccination? Also, there of course are the anti-vaxxers. If the side effects are pretty bad on a large enough %, even the those who aren't anti-vaxxers may hold off, maybe for a version w/milder side effects or one less likely to cause them?
 
I'm going to wait a month or so and see how it's going. If there is a shortage, OR the side effects are serious (this appears to not be the case) I'll wait until Spring approaches to get vaccinated. Otherwise I'll get it when I can. I just want to be able to go in stores wearing a mask and feel reasonably safe. Likewise a bit of socializing in the yard.
 
cwerdna said:
I'm near the end of the line. For me:
Based on your risk profile, we believe you’re in line behind 268.7 million people across the United States.

When it comes to California, we think you’re behind 31.0 million others who are at higher risk in your state.

And in [what I entered] County, you’re behind 1.4 million others...
Click to expand...
CA population is just shy of 40 million.
Click to expand...


I get the same numbers, except that I'm in a different Bay Area county from you so there are only 1.2 million ahead of me. :p

A hundred or so anti-vaxx/maskers were out protesting today, so maybe that moves me up to #1,199,900.
 
Will a vaccine give us our old lives back?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-b6360f40-84f9-469b-b6a3-a4568e161c4f
"Many of us are desperately hoping new and effective coronavirus vaccines will soon transport us back to our pre-Covid lives. But many scientists are warning that their arrival probably won't mean throwing our face masks in the bin anytime soon."

Also, what we call shots in the US are "jabs" in the UK. I'd heard and seen that before. Cramer briefly mentioned it on Mad Money the other day.

As much as there's been hype in the news about people traveling by plane due to Thanksgiving, it's apparently been elevated in the US for quite awhile. If you look at https://twitter.com/stranger_quark/status/1334317895195639810?s=20 (data comes from https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput).
 
Rudy Giuliani in hospital after testing positive for COVID-19
Giuliani was admitted to MedStar Georgetown University Hospital.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/rudy-giuliani-tested-positive-covid-19-trump/story?id=74571847

CNN was also showing footage of and reporting on Giuliani going around in a Georgia statehouse w/no mask, shaking hands w/people, hugging people, etc. See below.
https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/12/06/giuliani-coronavirus-atlanta-georgia-dec-3-ranney-sot-vpx.cnn
 
Covid-19 Superspreader Wedding In Washington State Linked To 7 Deaths Of People Who Didn’t Even Attend
https://www.forbes.com/sites/victoriaforster/2020/12/04/covid-19-superspreader-wedding-in-washington-state-linked-to-7-deaths-of-people-who-didnt-even-attend/
A 300-person wedding on November 7th in Washington State has been linked with dozens of cases of Covid-19 and now the deaths of several residents in long-term care homes in the area.

In an announcement yesterday, the Grant County Health District reported that seven deaths from Covid-19 had occurred in three long-term care facilities where attendees of the super-spreader wedding had worked.

“Our investigations have determined that there were long term care staff who tested positive for COVID-19 who attended the large wedding in Ritzville, WA reported on November 16th,” - statement from Grant County Health District.

The residents ranged in age from in their 70s to in their 90s and four additional deaths in the care homes were currently awaiting certification by a coroner to confirm the cause of death as Covid-19.
Click to expand...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/05/covid-19-deaths-could-nearly-double-by-april-despite-vaccines.html
The U.S. is forecast to see a cumulative 539,000 deaths by April 1, according to a Dec. 4 report published by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine.
IHME researchers said that the expected vaccine rollout only reduces the death toll by 9,000 before April 1 and said that a rapid rollout targeting high-risk people could save 14,000 more lives.
Researchers also said that increasing mask-wearing to 95% can save 66,000 lives by April 1.
Click to expand...
Hope to check back on April 1st to see how accurate the UW IHME prediction was this time.

Winter Covid surge is the ‘worst event that this country will face,’ White House health advisor Birx says
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/06/birx-winter-covid-surge-the-worst-event-that-this-country-will-face.html
 
First dose in the UK.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jqavb7lH5bQ

First dose in the US will likely be Thursday or Friday.

Some get mild COVID symptoms after the second shot.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/pfizer-moderna-covid-vaccine-side-effects-trials.html

"Mild" is relative, of course. You really don't want "moderate", that is a lot worse than "mild". "Mild" COVID for 24 hours sounds bad, but sounds pleasant relative to "moderate".


The 24-year-old said that when he got the first injection in mid-October, it felt just like a flu shot. “I experienced stiffness and pain in my left arm where I had gotten the shot, but it was mild,” he explained. “By that evening, I didn’t want to move my arm above my shoulder, but it was localized, and it disappeared by the next day.”

The second dose was a different story.

“After the injection, I had the same side effects as the first: localized pain and stiffness, but it was a little bit worse. My arm got sore faster, and by the time I got home, I started feeling fatigued and like anyone would feel if they were coming down with the flu,” said Batalvi.

More significant symptoms presented that evening. “I developed a low-grade fever and had chills,” he said. “That evening was rough.”

After a restless night, he called the study doctors, who reassured him it was a normal reaction and no cause for concern. By that afternoon, Batalvi said, he felt like himself again.
Click to expand...
 

Latest posts

Back
Top