Deciding whether to trade in 2011 and lease 2013

[Valdemar]

I have the same dilemma but the situation is a bit different. Currently '11 with 34k miles, 1 bar loss, I'll be lucky to get $14k on a trade-in. My total daily commute will soon be 65-70 miles, still doable on a full charge but who knows for how much longer. I can charge at work at $2/hr (ouch), so soon I'll be looking at additional $50/mo for charging there at minimum.
...
Thoughts?

Keep the '11 and charge at work as needed. Even at $2/hour it's more economical than getting a new LEAF or any other vehicle unless you have to charge for more than 2 hours/day. It must be some sort of Chargepoint station to cost $2/hour? At $2/hour hopefully it doesn't round up to the next hour?

It is a CP station indeed, installed by the building management. I tried to to talk them into a per kWh structure, but no luck, their response was everybody in the area charges $2/hr so we'll do the same. It is $2 minimum, then pro-rated after the 1st hour, so not too bad. With the exception of days when I need to run unexpected errands 1 hr on L2 at work will give me enough boost to get home without worries for a couple more years given capacity loss rate remains constant. Probably the only reason for me to get a '13 is to avoid the feeling of being raped by the 50c/kWh electricity cost on a daily basis, but it would likely end up costing me more There is also a DCQC at Universal City Nissan now, I may be able to charge there on some days, at least while it is still free.

 

[DaveEV]

It is a CP station indeed, installed by the building management. I tried to to talk them into a per kWh structure, but no luck, their response was everybody in the area charges $2/hr so we'll do the same. It is $2 minimum, then pro-rated after the 1st hour, so not too bad.

Build a J1772 Hydra and charge two cars at the same time and split the bill. Of course, building one of those costs ~$700 so that eats into ROI quite a bit.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Valdemar; not knowing your home charging rates complicates the issue but only slightly. I am in your situation and would not have anything to think about if I had charging at work. Weigh that $50 cost against $250 a month in gas...

I see this same logic used over and and over. We evaluate the decision based on how far we an drive on that $2 charge verses $2 of gas... Try that in real life and let us know how that works. Keep what u got. Wait till better options are out there. Be glad your employer has accommodated u

 

[Valdemar]

We are about to move and I don't know exactly how much home charging will cost as I will be paying socal Edison vs. LADWP currently. Their listed off-peak EV TOU rate is 11c/kWh, with all taxes it may be as high as 15c. I'm guessing I'll be paying around $100/mo for charging, so $150 total with charging at work. Solar is on the table but that is a whole different story.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Moving? Wow hope that is not plan B if u were talked out of plan A!

So a bit closer or further away?

 

[Valdemar]

Moving? Wow hope that is not plan B if u were talked out of plan A!

So a bit closer or further away?

Further away from work. What's plan A?

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Moving? Wow hope that is not plan B if u were talked out of plan A!

So a bit closer or further away?

Further away from work. What's plan A?

oh ok. plan A was trade in car

plan B, keep car, move closer to work...

but i got ya now. FYI; 65-70 will be an EXTREME challenge if you have lost a bar because that is what i do daily and i have not lost a bar yet. GID counts running 235-238 but you have that charger at work to fall back on. VERY valuable asset!

 

[Valdemar]

I've done this trip a couple of times already finishing just under LBW, what helps is that I will have to take surface streets for 1/2 of my trip in the morning as it is typically faster than the freeway (welcome to LA). But yes, I realize that the 11th CB will not last long in the SoCal heat and daily charge to 100%, even on end timer, so soon I will have no option but to charge at work.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I've done this trip a couple of times already finishing just under LBW, what helps is that I will have to take surface streets for 1/2 of my trip in the morning as it is typically faster than the freeway (welcome to LA). But yes, I realize that the 11th CB will not last long in the SoCal heat and daily charge to 100%, even on end timer, so soon I will have no option but to charge at work.

right now i am getting about 75 miles of range but that is about 45 miles of freeway running 55 mph and surface streets. I was making the same drive last Summer at 60-62 mph and getting home with 20 miles left on GOM. Now I am at or below VLB.

your early city driving will help out a lot. I have also opted for that option a few times (frequently am on the road at 4 am so traffic is minimal! ) and took it knowing I might need the extra range later and its only an extra 5-10 mins in most cases

 

[bal1519]

If you still want to trade in please let me know i will buy it on a better price than the dealership

 

[smkettner]

Keep the old LEAF and charge at work only as needed.
If you trade, think RAV4-EV not another LEAF for that commute.

 

[Valdemar]

I decided to keep my Leaf, among other things I may get lucky and get the new "hot" battery later on as a replacement. As for the RAV4-EV, I thought about it, but I just better off buying Prius, it will be less expensive, more reliable, and no need to deal with the range issues.

 

[pvanhoesen]

I have a leased 2011 Leaf and I'm at the 21 month mark and Nissan is offering to terminate the lease. I have driven it the exact same way for the last two years: about 45 miles a day, 1,000 miles a month, charging it max every night in my garage on my Blink home charger. I have all my bars. I wish I knew someone with a GID meter in Nashville so I could see how I'm really doing.

I have looked at the 2013 lease option for an equivalently outfitted Leaf and the lease is around $400 for a 24 month lease.

Then I stepped back and did a scenario analysis of keeping my 2011:
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/batteries/leaf/Leaf-Battery-Survey.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

24 months from now I will have about 55K on the 2011. We don't have enough data from Plugamerica yet but if you take that chart and draw a line through the median of the 11 Bar crossmarks, Nashville's 79 degree average temperature crosses at about 50K. That means somewhere around 50K is the projected average for losing a bar.

The battery on a 2011 is warranted for 96 months or 100,000 miles (page 7 of the Warranty Booklet), the EV system (everything but the battery) is warranted for 60 months, 60,000 miles. I think I'm quite safe.

By shifting to a used car loan I will be continuing to pay down this car until I own it rather than giving Nissan another go around on the lease merry go round. In 24 months on another lease you have absolutely nothing to show for it. The real payback on these cars arrives when you have no car payment and an $18 a month electricity bill. I leased it on the first go around because the technology was so new. We now have enough empirical data to make some pretty good assumptions.

There are other options as well at the end of the lease such as checking the used car market to see if there are used Leafs to buy that are lower in mileage and price than your lease buyout price. This is already the case in middle TN. The auction houses are getting Leafs from rental car companies that can be had at prices well below the used dealer prices.

Nissan will continue to improve and lower the cost of the battery over time. When I ever need to replace the battery, I'm expecting the market will look vastly different. Just look at the changes in 2 years. Not to mention the number of wrecked Leafs with battery packs waiting to be harvested is going to rise as well.

I think the Leaf will be an extremely reliable car in the long run. An AC motor in general is incredibly reliable. I am happy with my slower 2011 charging time. I would bet the 2011 engineers bet on the side of component longevity and fear of heat - not speed of charge. That bodes well for the life of the charging and inversion system.

Would like to hear anyone else's angle who is in a similar inflection point...

 

[Valdemar]

As for reliability, probably my biggest concern is the OBC. It is fairly expensive and while a failure, if it happens, will likely be in a low-cost component, you would still have to replace the whole unit unless you have the skills and the time to troubleshoot it to the component level. Limited numbers of the 2011 sold will make it difficult to source parts from junkyards, so there is a good chance one would have to pay a full retail price for the replacement.

 

[planet4ever]

The battery on a 2011 is warranted for 96 months or 100,000 miles (page 7 of the Warranty Booklet), the EV system (everything but the battery) is warranted for 60 months, 60,000 miles. I think I'm quite safe.

I trust you realize that 96/100K warranty on the battery is for manufacturing defects only. It explicitly does not cover gradual capacity loss. Nissan has now added a 5 year warranty that battery capacity will not drop below 9 bars. That will expire a few months past that date you are looking at two years from now. The only way to extend it is to pay $100/month. So right there you have gone from $18/mo to $118/mo, and you haven't allowed anything for service.

I won't claim it is cut and dried, but there is a future range advantage to starting out now with a brand new battery rather than one that (in your case) has about 30K miles on it. You would also get more efficient heating (unless you downgrade to the S model). And you get that nice $7,500 benefit from Uncle Sam for each car you lease.

Ray

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I have a leased 2011 Leaf and I'm at the 21 month mark and Nissan is offering to terminate the lease. I have driven it the exact same way for the last two years: about 45 miles a day, 1,000 miles a month, charging it max every night in my garage on my Blink home charger. I have all my bars. I wish I knew someone with a GID meter in Nashville so I could see how I'm really doing.

I have looked at the 2013 lease option for an equivalently outfitted Leaf and the lease is around $400 for a 24 month lease.

Then I stepped back and did a scenario analysis of keeping my 2011:
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/batteries/leaf/Leaf-Battery-Survey.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

24 months from now I will have about 55K on the 2011. We don't have enough data from Plugamerica yet but if you take that chart and draw a line through the median of the 11 Bar crossmarks, Nashville's 79 degree average temperature crosses at about 50K. That means somewhere around 50K is the projected average for losing a bar.

The battery on a 2011 is warranted for 96 months or 100,000 miles (page 7 of the Warranty Booklet), the EV system (everything but the battery) is warranted for 60 months, 60,000 miles. I think I'm quite safe.

By shifting to a used car loan I will be continuing to pay down this car until I own it rather than giving Nissan another go around on the lease merry go round. In 24 months on another lease you have absolutely nothing to show for it. The real payback on these cars arrives when you have no car payment and an $18 a month electricity bill. I leased it on the first go around because the technology was so new. We now have enough empirical data to make some pretty good assumptions.

There are other options as well at the end of the lease such as checking the used car market to see if there are used Leafs to buy that are lower in mileage and price than your lease buyout price. This is already the case in middle TN. The auction houses are getting Leafs from rental car companies that can be had at prices well below the used dealer prices.

Nissan will continue to improve and lower the cost of the battery over time. When I ever need to replace the battery, I'm expecting the market will look vastly different. Just look at the changes in 2 years. Not to mention the number of wrecked Leafs with battery packs waiting to be harvested is going to rise as well.

I think the Leaf will be an extremely reliable car in the long run. An AC motor in general is incredibly reliable. I am happy with my slower 2011 charging time. I would bet the 2011 engineers bet on the side of component longevity and fear of heat - not speed of charge. That bodes well for the life of the charging and inversion system.

Would like to hear anyone else's angle who is in a similar inflection point...

Several people in the Seattle area losing their first bar at 40-42,000 miles so pretty sure yours wont last till 50,000. If I had to guess, I would say 30,000 for you. If I had to recommend; I say take a look at Sloaty degradation model. its a great guideline