General EV sales topic

[WetEV]

the resulting price jump would really start a rush to PEVs.

How could we tell the difference?

PEVs are largely production (mostly battery) constrained. Market shares exceed 5% in the USA, 20+% in Europe, double last year.
Probably will not double again until 2024 or so.

 

[GRA]

the resulting price jump would really start a rush to PEVs.

How could we tell the difference?

PEVs are largely production (mostly battery) constrained. Market shares exceed 5% in the USA, 20+% in Europe, double last year.
Probably will not double again until 2024 or so.

You can build far more PHEVs than BEVs for a given amount of batteries. Most people can't afford BEVs, especially at today's prices, but they may be able to afford PHEVs, especially since it's really not necessary for them to also pay for and install an L2 EVSE and circuit. As noted in an earlier post, in Europe PHEV sales increased more rapidly than BEVs, and the same thing is happening here.

Alternatively, the only people buying new cars now are those who could afford to pay the freight for a BEV, in which case battery supply constraints will dominate.

PEVs were at 4% market share in the U.S. last year, not 5% - a single month's sales are no more than a snapshot, albeit an encouraging one, and that trend should continue if gas prices stay where they are or go even higher.

 

[WetEV]

the resulting price jump would really start a rush to PEVs.

How could we tell the difference?

So? Did you miss the point or just ignore it?

BEVs and PHEVs are both selling as fast as can be made. So what exactly about a "rush to PEVs" would be different that the current situation?

 

[GRA]

How could we tell the difference?

So? Did you miss the point or just ignore it?

BEVs and PHEVs are both selling as fast as can be made. So what exactly about a "rush to PEVs" would be different that the current situation?

^^^ You need to add another [close quote] to the above.

If we see PHEVs continue to increase sales more rapidly than BEVs owing to prices, we'll get far more mainstream consumers driving electric most of the time for the available battery supply and total spend. 4-5 PHEVs vs. 1 BEV for the same batteries, each PHEV priced $3-10k less than the comparable BEV, is obviously an environmental win for the near term, and exposes far more customers and potential customers to PEVs for the longer term. We've got to get beyond the early adopters for sales to really take off, as opposed to the current incremental growth - you were predicting 4% U.S. sales of BEVs for 2022, up from 2%, but it was 3% or so (3.4% for Q4 see https://insideevs.com/news/566900/us-plugin-car-sales-2021q4/ ). We want to see annual PEV sales doubling for a few years, now that the actual number of cars is starting to be significant.

Note that assumes that it's batteries and not chips that are the supply bottleneck, but even if it's chips, automakers could shift from ICE production to PHEVs a lot easier than to BEVs - after all, total car sales are still well down, so there's excess conventional production capacity. Plus, here in the U.S. it's C/SUVs that are seeing the biggest jump in PEV sales, and those cars are more likely to want/need the range and flexibility for year-round trips, towing etc. that only ICEs w/liquid fossil fuels currently provide. That PH C/SUVs also provide the biggest emissions benefit and fuel cost savings in routine local use compared to an ICE or HEV counterpart, versus smaller size vehicles, is another bonus.

 

[WetEV]

^^^ You need to add another [close quote] to the above.

Fixed. Thanks.

So? Did you miss the point or just ignore it?

BEVs and PHEVs are both selling as fast as can be made. So what exactly about a "rush to PEVs" would be different that the current situation?

If we see PHEVs continue to increase sales more rapidly than BEVs owing to prices,

Ignoring my point, of course. Both BEVs and PHEVs are selling as fast as can be made. Note in the current market, that is true of all cars. If the automakers could make more PHEVs for more profit, they would.


Except of course we are not, in general, seeing a rush to PHEVs relative to BEVs. Sure, there are local and short term variations. PHEVs also have supply chain issues, as to all other cars. But over the past decade, BEVs are growing faster. From your source.

we'll get far more mainstream consumers driving electric most of the time for the available battery supply and total spend.

Except of course that a PHEV is a "Goldilocks" car. Most acceptable to the group that has L1/L2 charging at home, does enough electric driving for the extra cost to be offset by gasoline cost savings, and does drives to places without realistic L3 and/or L2 destination charging. And doesn't care about the noise and vibration of an ICE on longer trips. And is willing and able to manage two different power sources. The declining cost of batteries and the spreading of charging networks will likely doom PHEVs long term... But might be the best choice for some today, next year, and even next decade.

for sales to really take off, as opposed to the current incremental growth - you were predicting 4% U.S. sales of BEVs for 2022, up from 2%, but it was 3% or so (3.4% for Q4 see https://insideevs.com/news/566900/us-plugin-car-sales-2021q4/ ). We want to see annual PEV sales doubling for a few years, now that the actual number of cars is starting to be significant.

As far as I can see, 2022 isn't over yet.

PEV sales can't double every year due to supply chain issues. I was talking about supply chain issues long before supply chain issues hit the headlines. Not just batteries, of course. Every 2 to 3 years is possible. Which is about the rate of growth.

This is all interesting, in that you have changed. No longer flogging hydrogen, which increasingly looks like a loser for personal automotive. But now you are flogging PHEVs.

Why are you so against BEVs?

 

[GRA]

^^^ You need to add another [close quote] to the above.

Fixed. Thanks.

So? Did you miss the point or just ignore it?

BEVs and PHEVs are both selling as fast as can be made. So what exactly about a "rush to PEVs" would be different that the current situation?

If we see PHEVs continue to increase sales more rapidly than BEVs owing to prices,

Ignoring my point, of course. Both BEVs and PHEVs are selling as fast as can be made. Note in the current market, that is true of all cars. If the automakers could make more PHEVs for more profit, they would.


Except of course we are not, in general, seeing a rush to PHEVs relative to BEVs. Sure, there are local and short term variations. PHEVs also have supply chain issues, as to all other cars. But over the past decade, BEVs are growing faster. From your source.

My point is that both here and in Europe, PHEV sales growth rates have been above that of BEVs for the last year or so. Those who can't afford either have been moving to HEVs, especially in Europe where people who would have bought a diesel before are instead going HEV.

we'll get far more mainstream consumers driving electric most of the time for the available battery supply and total spend.

Except of course that a PHEV is a "Goldilocks" car. Most acceptable to the group that has L1/L2 charging at home, does enough electric driving for the extra cost to be offset by gasoline cost savings, and does drives to places without realistic L3 and/or L2 destination charging. And doesn't care about the noise and vibration of an ICE on longer trips. And is willing and able to manage two different power sources. The declining cost of batteries and the spreading of charging networks will likely doom PHEVs long term... But might be the best choice for some today, next year, and even next decade.

Again, the most important advantage of PHEVs has always been that they ease the transition for the largest number of consumers, imposing far fewer limits on where you live, work and drive than a BEV currently does, while still having a significant environmental benefit, a greater benefit than can be realized with BEVs of similar range for the same amount of a limited battery supply.

for sales to really take off, as opposed to the current incremental growth - you were predicting 4% U.S. sales of BEVs for 2022, up from 2%, but it was 3% or so (3.4% for Q4 see https://insideevs.com/news/566900/us-plugin-car-sales-2021q4/ ). We want to see annual PEV sales doubling for a few years, now that the actual number of cars is starting to be significant.

As far as I can see, 2022 isn't over yet.

PEV sales can't double every year due to supply chain issues. I was talking about supply chain issues long before supply chain issues hit the headlines. Not just batteries, of course. Every 2 to 3 years is possible. Which is about the rate of growth.

Depends on what the limitation is; if it's chips, no, but if it's batteries then they certainly can, if fewer BEVs are made. Again, 4-5 PHEVs providing AER adequate for daily commutes vs. one big-battery BEV, most of which capacity gets used rarely.

This is all interesting, in that you have changed. No longer flogging hydrogen, which increasingly looks like a loser for personal automotive. But now you are flogging PHEVs.

Why are you so against BEVs?

Why are you continuing to make inaccurate claims? I've never 'flogged' Hydrogen, any more than I've 'flogged' PHEVs, BEVs or bio/syn fuels, nor am I against BEVs. 'Flogged' implies that I'm a salesman who ignores any disadvantages of a tech, and that's not me. I consider all of the above means of getting us off fossil fuels, and will recommend whichever one I think does that best in a given situation, and as quickly as possible. Each has advantages and disadvantages for particular uses.

For example, I have a friend whose wife is looking to replace her 1998 RAV4 and wants to go ZEV, but wants the seat height of her RAV4. She doesn't take lots of long trips in rural areas (he does, even more than I do), doesn't need AWD, and wants to keep the price down. They own a home (with PV) so home charging will be easy, and there isn't any H2 station in their town (although one is scheduled to be built a few miles away in the next town over). So, I told her to forget an FCEV (would have to be the Nexo given her height requirement) for both price and convenience reasons, and gave her a list of BEVs (new and used) that I felt best suited her needs, listed the advantages and disadvantages as well as prices, ranges, charging speeds etc. of each, discussed the costs and advantages/disadvantages of installing an L2 circuit at home given there are public L2s and FCs nearby, etc. etc. This is the same process I'd follow for any potential AFV 'customer', and is the same process I followed when designing and selling off-grid systems for customers. It's not what suits me best that matters, it's what best does particular job for them.

Her husband, who has different needs, bought his first new car in Dec. of 2020, an HEV CR-V, after a lifetime of owning used Volvo wagons. If he decides that he is willing to switch to an AFV my recommendations for him will be very different but also won't include an FCEV at this time, as the fueling infrastructure simply doesn't exist yet to provide access to the places we go to, not even our most common trips (which is why an FCEV also won't work for me now, although it otherwise fits my requirements better than current BEVs do). So, for now it comes down to PHEV vs. BEV for him - the former allows him to go wherever he wants by any route he wants at any time of the year he wants (he's a very serious backcountry skier) as quickly and easily as he's used to, the latter imposes some restrictions but is ZEV. It's his call as to which compromises he's willing to make, and I'll lay out the pluses and minuses of each if he asks.

Re H2 for personal transport I regard that as still too early to call, as its success or failure remains dependent on the relative rates of improvement of both cost and capability vis a vis batteries, but it appears to be a clear winner (for now) when it comes to heavy transport/longer range requirements, just as I've always regarded BEVs as normally being the best choice for short-range operations with lots of stops where payload/gross weights aren't an issue. The size of the gaps between those two uses/techs will undoubtedly narrow, but I'm not going to predict which one will ultimately win any given niche. Bio/syn fuels will likely also have a place.

As I've I've stated multiple times in the PHEV topic and elsewhere, I regard PHEVs as a very useful transitional personal transport tech, giving us the largest emissions benefit in the shortest possible time at the lowest cost, while spreading the limited battery supply as far as possible.

 

[LeftieBiker]

I seem to recall a recent news story in which it was revealed that PHEVs don't actually provide the large environmental benefit claimed. I believe it was partly because many people don't actually plug them in - they buy and use them just for the HOV lane access. IIRC, it was also just a case of higher emissions per mile than claimed even when plugged in. I'm sorry that I can't dig it up, but I'm currently more or less bedridden.

 

[GRA]

I seem to recall a recent news story in which it was revealed that PEVs don't actually provide the large environmental benefit claimed. I believe it was partly because many people don't actually plug them in - they buy and use them just for the HOV lane access. IIRC, it was also just a case of higher emissions per mile than claimed even when plugged in. I'm sorry that I can't dig it up, but I'm currently more or less bedridden.

I assume you meant PHEVs. I saw that and I think it was linked somewhere, maybe the PHEV topic. However, another survey showed that we were seeing 50% of PHEV miles in the U.S. and IIRR 52 or 53% in Norway were on the battery, so while PiP owners a few years back in California were certainly buying them to get the HOV lane access, as the batteries get bigger, the cars more expensive and gas prices higher, I don't see this as a significant problem.

 

[LeftieBiker]

Maybe, but never underestimate the laziness of the affluent. It may just be that as they get more expensive, mainly the financially-better-off buy them - but still for HOV access.

Typo corrected. The downside to PHEVs that I rarely see noted is that while you have to plug them in to get most of the benefits, you don't have to plug them in.

 

[jjeff]

Whenever I see PHEV sales numbers I kinda have to laugh. The reason their numbers are low is probably simply they are not available in most areas of the country and dealers try everything they can to talk prospective buyers out of them.
Case in point my daughter who coming from her '12 Leaf really wanted a vehicle she could drive around for most of her driving in EV but still the ability to drive out of town and not have to worry about finding somewhere to plug in. She decided on a Hyundai Ionic PHEV but being basically a compliance car we were forced to drive 1000 miles to the closest area that sold them. She is very happy with it, even if it doesn't have heat in EV mode and just bundles up for her short trips.
Second case in point, we've been waiting almost a year and a half for a Toyota Rav4 Prime ordered from our local Toyota dealer and are currently #1 on the list but as the dealer only gets one or two/year we still have no arrival date. At least the salesman didn't try and talk us out of the Prime, well other than to stress again and again we could be waiting 2 years when we ordered it and if we couldn't wait, we'd be better taking one of the regular hybrid Rav4s which they could easily get.
So what I'm trying to say is while PHEV numbers may be small I believe it's because dealers simply aren't stocking or have the ability to stock them. They are simply an advertising ploy to get people into the dealerships and then tell them they aren't available.......but they have a similar nonPHEV model available you could buy......
Very few people are going to wait 2 years or more to get a vehicle and in the case of the Ionic PHEV, it's not even available in my state or any state within a thousand miles of me and probably not a lot of people are willing to seek them out.
In hind site I might have driven or flown the 1400 miles to RI to get the Rav4 but not really being in a big hurry I kind of just wanted to see how it played out and it seems like the salesmans 2 year estimate might not have been that far out. Once we get it I'm hoping to sell our 2 Leafs, an 11-bar '13S and 8-bar '12SL and a '07 Prius, which should really help on our insurance and free up driveway space. The Prius got it's cats cut out a couple years ago and while the aftermarket one gives a constant check engine light, it runs very well and only has 120k miles on the ODO.

 

[Triggerhappy007]

In hind site I might have driven or flown the 1400 miles to RI to get the Rav4 but not really being in a big hurry I kind of just wanted to see how it played out and it seems like the salesmans 2 year estimate might not have been that far out.

You might have to hurry. Toyota is expected to sell its 200,000th this quarter so the $7500 tax credit will be good until June 30th. Then it will be cut in half the next 2 quarters and half again for the following 2 quarters.

 

[WetEV]

My point is that both here and in Europe, PHEV sales growth rates have been above that of BEVs for the last year or so. Those who can't afford either have been moving to HEVs, especially in Europe where people who would have bought a diesel before are instead going HEV.

Look at that graph again. That's your source for claiming that PHEVs are growing faster in the USA. Sure PHEVs have outsold BEVs, but not recently. Sure PHEV sales have grown faster over some days, some months, some quarters and even years. But overall, BEV sales have grown faster.

Except of course that a PHEV is a "Goldilocks" car. Most acceptable to the group that has L1/L2 charging at home, does enough electric driving for the extra cost to be offset by gasoline cost savings, and does drives to places without realistic L3 and/or L2 destination charging. And doesn't care about the noise and vibration of an ICE on longer trips. And is willing and able to manage two different power sources. The declining cost of batteries and the spreading of charging networks will likely doom PHEVs long term... But might be the best choice for some today, next year, and even next decade.

Again, the most important advantage of PHEVs has always been that they ease the transition for the largest number of consumers, imposing far fewer limits on where you live, work and drive than a BEV currently does, while still having a significant environmental benefit, a greater benefit than can be realized with BEVs of similar range for the same amount of a limited battery supply.

HEVs are even less of a transition for consumers, and use less of the limited battery supply. And just like PHEVs, you don't need to plug them in. :?

A transition can be good. I doubt if many horse owners missed shoveling out the stables after getting a horseless carriage. I don't miss stopping at gas stations in the winter at 1 C temperature and with rain coming down horizontally.

for sales to really take off, as opposed to the current incremental growth - you were predicting 4% U.S. sales of BEVs for 2022, up from 2%, but it was 3% or so (3.4% for Q4 see https://insideevs.com/news/566900/us-plugin-car-sales-2021q4/ ). We want to see annual PEV sales doubling for a few years, now that the actual number of cars is starting to be significant.

As far as I can see, 2022 isn't over yet.

PEV sales can't double every year due to supply chain issues. I was talking about supply chain issues long before supply chain issues hit the headlines. Not just batteries, of course. Every 2 to 3 years is possible. Which is about the rate of growth.

Depends on what the limitation is; if it's chips, no, but if it's batteries then they certainly can, if fewer BEVs are made. Again, 4-5 PHEVs providing AER adequate for daily commutes vs. one big-battery BEV, most of which capacity gets used rarely.

HEVs would provide more reduction in gasoline usage than either PHEVs or BEVs. The limitations to that are customer preferences as well as supply chains.

"Cool Prius" -- Nobody

This is all interesting, in that you have changed. No longer flogging hydrogen, which increasingly looks like a loser for personal automotive. But now you are flogging PHEVs.

Why are you so against BEVs?

Why are you continuing to make inaccurate claims? I've never 'flogged' Hydrogen, any more than I've 'flogged' PHEVs, BEVs or bio/syn fuels, nor am I against BEVs. 'Flogged' implies that I'm a salesman who ignores any disadvantages of a tech, and that's not me. I consider all of the above means of getting us off fossil fuels, and will recommend whichever one I think does that best in a given situation, and as quickly as possible. Each has advantages and disadvantages for particular uses.

Ah yes, like the graph above. You ignore that BEVs are growing faster over the whole period to focus on some cherry-picked interval.

Maybe you don't think you are flogging, but that's the way I see it.

As I've I've stated multiple times in the PHEV topic and elsewhere, I regard PHEVs as a very useful transitional personal transport tech, giving us the largest emissions benefit in the shortest possible time at the lowest cost, while spreading the limited battery supply as far as possible.

Sure, if driver fits into the "Goldilocks" use case for PHEVs. Some do, some don't. HEVs would do better, of course, at reducing emissions in the shortest time at the lowest cost in batteries at least. Stop-start hybrids aka weak hybrids would do even better, but at least some manufacturers have dropped these do to supply chain issues.

 

[GRA]

My point is that both here and in Europe, PHEV sales growth rates have been above that of BEVs for the last year or so. Those who can't afford either have been moving to HEVs, especially in Europe where people who would have bought a diesel before are instead going HEV.

Look at that graph again. That's your source for claiming that PHEVs are growing faster in the USA. Sure PHEVs have outsold BEVs, but not recently. Sure PHEV sales have grown faster over some days, some months, some quarters and even years. But overall, BEV sales have grown faster.

Yes, BEV sales have grown faster than PEV sales prior to last year here. A year's worth of sales is definitely beyond a blip.

My source for that statement was the following quote, which I provided a link to in the original post you replied to:

Sales of new light-duty plug-in electric vehicles, including all-electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), nearly doubled from 308,000 in 2020 to 608,000 in 2021, according to data gathered by the US Department of Energy (DOE).

EV sales accounted for 73% of all plug-in electric vehicle sales in 2021. EV sales grew by 85% from 2020 to 2021, while sales of PHEVs more than doubled, with an increase of 138% over the previous year.

The rapid growth in plug-in electric vehicle sales from 2020 to 2021 is remarkable in the context of overall light-duty vehicle sales, which increased by only 3% during the same period.

A total of 53,465 plug-in vehicles (41,125 BEVs and 12,340 PHEVs) were sold during January 2022 in the United States, up 64.2% from the sales in January 2021. PEVs captured 5.39% of total LDV sales in this month.

Obviously, PHEV sales are starting from a smaller total, but we're seeing the same PHEV/BEV trend in Europe, which I also provided a link to.

Except of course that a PHEV is a "Goldilocks" car. Most acceptable to the group that has L1/L2 charging at home, does enough electric driving for the extra cost to be offset by gasoline cost savings, and does drives to places without realistic L3 and/or L2 destination charging. And doesn't care about the noise and vibration of an ICE on longer trips. And is willing and able to manage two different power sources. The declining cost of batteries and the spreading of charging networks will likely doom PHEVs long term... But might be the best choice for some today, next year, and even next decade.

Again, the most important advantage of PHEVs has always been that they ease the transition for the largest number of consumers, imposing far fewer limits on where you live, work and drive than a BEV currently does, while still having a significant environmental benefit, a greater benefit than can be realized with BEVs of similar range for the same amount of a limited battery supply.

HEVs are even less of a transition for consumers, and use less of the limited battery supply. And just like PHEVs, you don't need to plug them in. :?

Sure, and that's why HEVs are outselling all PEVs in Europe and the U.S. right now. OTOH, current gas prices and what's going on in Ukraine give people who wouldn't be motivated by environmental concerns an incentive to switch to partly or wholly electric. I caught an example of this on the local TV news last night. I imagine your stations are like ours; every time there's a major spike in gas prices they send a crew out to a local gas station to show how high the posted prices are, and interview to people buying gas who say something totally predictable like "Boy, it's really expensive." So last night, in one of these pieces the customer said something similar, and then added "I'm thinking of getting an electric car".

Of course, if the surge is short-term most such musings don't result in action, but we've had high and rising gas prices for over a year now: Currently in California the average price of regular is $5.34/gal, with one station in Gorda (a tiny town on S.R. 1 between Big
Sur and San Simeon) charging $7.60. It's cheaper now to DC FC than it is to buy gas, something that hadn't been the case until recently.

A transition can be good. I doubt if many horse owners missed shoveling out the stables after getting a horseless carriage. I don't miss stopping at gas stations in the winter at 1 C temperature and with rain coming down horizontally.

Of course a transition can be good, especially when you can't foresee the long-term negative consequences - air pollution from cars wasn't foreseen as an issue, and wasn't until their numbers got very large - until then everyone was glad the streets weren't covered in horse manure and urine, with massive numbers of flies spreading disease. No doubt there will eventually be unforeseen negative consequences of a shift to EVs as well. This transition is good, at least as far as solving our current environmental problems, but in order to make it as quick as possible we want it to be as easy as possible. PHEVs are cars that are electric when you can, and gas when you want or have to, with minimal or no infrastructure upgrades required, the easiest possible transition.

As far as I can see, 2022 isn't over yet.

PEV sales can't double every year due to supply chain issues. I was talking about supply chain issues long before supply chain issues hit the headlines. Not just batteries, of course. Every 2 to 3 years is possible. Which is about the rate of growth.

Depends on what the limitation is; if it's chips, no, but if it's batteries then they certainly can, if fewer BEVs are made. Again, 4-5 PHEVs providing AER adequate for daily commutes vs. one big-battery BEV, most of which capacity gets used rarely.

HEVs would provide more reduction in gasoline usage than either PHEVs or BEVs. The limitations to that are customer preferences as well as supply chains.

"Cool Prius" -- Nobody

Even if that's accurate (I've seen various results depending on the use case), HEVs wouldn't reduce air pollution as much in the urban areas where it's concentrated, now would they? HEVs are outselling all PEVs combined, so we're moving beyond Priuses. As for supply chains, are you saying that a company like Kia couldn't decide to build more PHEV Niros and fewer HEVs and BEVs? In the case of the PHEV vs. BEV, they can build 7+ of the former (8.9 kWh) for every one of the latter (64 kWh). The same math applies to the Kona.

This is all interesting, in that you have changed. No longer flogging hydrogen, which increasingly looks like a loser for personal automotive. But now you are flogging PHEVs.

Why are you so against BEVs?

Why are you continuing to make inaccurate claims? I've never 'flogged' Hydrogen, any more than I've 'flogged' PHEVs, BEVs or bio/syn fuels, nor am I against BEVs. 'Flogged' implies that I'm a salesman who ignores any disadvantages of a tech, and that's not me. I consider all of the above means of getting us off fossil fuels, and will recommend whichever one I think does that best in a given situation, and as quickly as possible. Each has advantages and disadvantages for particular uses.

Ah yes, like the graph above. You ignore that BEVs are growing faster over the whole period to focus on some cherry-picked interval.

Maybe you don't think you are flogging, but that's the way I see it.

You're entitled to your opinion, but when it comes to cherry-picking, please do take a look in the mirror before accusing anyone else of same. I've provided you with ample evidence of my disinterested approach to various techs. I'm a pragmatist, not a fanboy who falls in love with a particular tech or company, so stop making inaccurate claims about my motivations and opinions: I've stated them multiple times to you.

As I've I've stated multiple times in the PHEV topic and elsewhere, I regard PHEVs as a very useful transitional personal transport tech, giving us the largest emissions benefit in the shortest possible time at the lowest cost, while spreading the limited battery supply as far as possible.

Sure, if driver fits into the "Goldilocks" use case for PHEVs. Some do, some don't. HEVs would do better, of course, at reducing emissions in the shortest time at the lowest cost in batteries at least. Stop-start hybrids aka weak hybrids would do even better, but at least some manufacturers have dropped these do to supply chain issues.

PHEVs aren't Goldilocks cars, that's BEVs right now. Anyone can buy a PHEV and use it for anything they'd use an ICE or HEV for, right now, with no compromise (other than extra upfront cost and some extra weight) or change in behavior required. You can't say that about BEVs yet, which is why we play twenty questions with newbies to see if a BEV will work for them. The answer for BEVs is always "it depends" followed by those questions. For PHEVs the answer is "Sure", but it may or may not provide them any benefit vs. a less expensive ICE/HEV alternative.

 

[WetEV]

Yes, BEV sales have grown faster than PEV sales prior to last year here. A year's worth of sales is definitely beyond a blip.

I don't see any point at cherry picking short term intervals out of a longer term trend.

BEVs are just nicer to drive than PHEVs, HEVs and ICEs. Driver preference matters. Sure, there are some use cases for PHEVs.

Electric power is cheaper than gasoline. At home I'm paying about $1 per equivalent gallon (0.11 per kWh), and about $2.50 (0.31 kWh) for the infrequent fast charge. Based on 1 gallon of gas is about the same as 8 kWh. Energy in a gallon of gasoline is about 33 kWh, and the electric car is about 4 times more efficient.

Today's gas price was $4.546 (3/8/2022) average for Washington State.

https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=WA

Why would I buy a PHEV and pay almost twice as much for energy/fuel on road trips?

Obviously, PHEV sales are starting from a smaller total, but we're seeing the same PHEV/BEV trend in Europe, which I also provided a link to.

Europe:
https://insideevs.com/news/571644/europe-plugin-car-sales-january2022/

BEVs: about *83,000 (up 78% year-over-year, 10% share)
PHEVs: about *73,000 (up 11% year-over-year, 9% share)
Total: 156,236 (up 39% year-over-year, 19% share)

78% is a little more than 11%. Or maybe you were looking at somewhere else.

HEVs are even less of a transition for consumers, and use less of the limited battery supply. And just like PHEVs, you don't need to plug them in. :?

Sure, and that's why HEVs are outselling all PEVs in Europe and the U.S. right now.

Yes, but like a horse that just sh!ts a little less, HEVs doesn't help that much with air pollution, and still drives like an ICE, except for short periods of time.

A transition can be good. I doubt if many horse owners missed shoveling out the stables after getting a horseless carriage. I don't miss stopping at gas stations in the winter at 1 C temperature and with rain coming down horizontally.

Of course a transition can be good, especially when you can't foresee the long-term negative consequences (air pollution from cars wasn't foreseen as an issue, and wasn't until their numbers got very large - until then everyone was glad the streets weren't covered in horse manure and urine, with massive numbers of flies spreading disease. No doubt there will eventually be unforeseen negative consequences of a shift to EVs as well). This transition is good, at elast as far as solving our current environmental problems, but in order to make it as quick as possible we want it to be as easy as possible. PHEVs are cars that are electric when you can, and gas when you must or want to, with minimal or no infrastructure upgrades required, the easiest possible transition.

Yet PHEVs require more L1/L2 infrastructure faster. While a PHEV might used a quarter the battery of a BEV, and produce 50% electric miles, home charging would be needed for all of the PHEVs, assuming of course that they would actually be plugged in. HEVs would be better for those that can't plug in yet.

This assumes a even bigger government hand forcing PHEVs over BEVs, as PHEVs are mostly currently subsidized and BEVs are most not, at the US Federal level. States are different, of course. A larger subsidy for PHEVs will be needed to overcome the driver preference for a BEV, or for that matter for an ICE.

HEVs would provide more reduction in gasoline usage than either PHEVs or BEVs. The limitations to that are customer preferences as well as supply chains.

"Cool Prius" -- Nobody

Even if that's accurate (I've seen various results depending on the use case), HEVs wouldn't reduce air pollution as much in the urban areas where it's concentrated, now would they?[/quote]

Shifting goals would provide different answers. HEVs would reduce fossil fuel usage and CO2 faster... assuming no supply chain issues other than batteries. Would not provide as much reduction in urban air pollution.

One 60kWh BEV would use the same batteries as 60 HEVs. We could have been at 100% HEVs a few years ago. The real issue to consider here is driver preference.

Ah yes, like the graph above. You ignore that BEVs are growing faster over the whole period to focus on some cherry-picked interval.

Maybe you don't think you are flogging, but that's the way I see it.

You're entitled to your opinion, but when it comes to cherry-picking, please do take a look in the mirror before accusing anyone else of same.

Feel free to call me out.

Sure, if driver fits into the "Goldilocks" use case for PHEVs. Some do, some don't. HEVs would do better, of course, at reducing emissions in the shortest time at the lowest cost in batteries at least. Stop-start hybrids aka weak hybrids would do even better, but at least some manufacturers have dropped these do to supply chain issues.

PHEVs aren't Goldilocks cars, that's BEVs right now. Anyone can buy a PHEV and use it for anything they'd use an ICE or HEV for, right now, with no compromise (other than extra upfront cost and some extra weight) or change in behavior required. You can't say that about BEVs yet, which is why we play twenty questions with newbies to see if a BEV will work for them. The answer for BEVs is always "it depends" followed by those questions. For PHEVs the answer is "Sure", but it may or may not provide them any benefit vs. a less expensive ICE/HEV alternative.

BEVs are an edge case car. Very high performance, very clean, lowest cost in some cases.

PHEVs fill the space between BEVs and HEVs. Remember their limitations. If your daily mileage is enough beyond the AER, you might have been better off an HEV.

 

[GRA]

Yes, BEV sales have grown faster than PEV sales prior to last year here. A year's worth of sales is definitely beyond a blip.

I don't see any point at cherry picking short term intervals out of a longer term trend.

One year is a definite change in trend. Whether and how long it will continue remains to be seen. If you don't think 1 year is long enough, then go back over the last century; what's the trend there? By your logic the increased rate of PEV sales in the past decade is just cherry picking a short term interval out of a longer term trend, since fossil-fueled ICEs dominated for the preceding century; thus we should ignore the 'recent' increase in PEV sales.

BEVs are just nicer to drive than PHEVs, HEVs and ICEs. Driver preference matters. Sure, there are some use cases for PHEVs.

Some BEVs are nicer to drive, but buyer preference obviously shows that most people still prefer to buy ICEs in one form or another. Cars are first and foremost transportation for most people, and how well they provide that for a given amount of money is most people's main metric. Just because a car is running on electricity doesn't guarantee that it will be quieter, vibrate less, accelerate faster or ride or handle better. To take just the case of noise, engine noise often masks wind, tire and road noise, and without it those become much more noticeable. You need to deal with lots of other issues to handle those. To which you may add add gear and motor whine in EVs, depending on the quality of those components; One BEV I drove sounded just like an electric golf cart, with the major difference that you only drive a golf cart for a minute or two at a time; 15 minutes or more having to listen to that car's whine got very annoying.

I've read reviews of plenty of modern PEVs that have noise complaints due to one or more sources. Thus, while the Model S is noticeably quiet, the Model 3 isn't. Whether the latter is due to aero design, lack of soundproofing and laminated glass, or just poor fit and finish QC I couldn't say, but see here: https://matthewjcheung.medium.com/3-ways-to-make-model-3-even-quieter-624cf107d255 Remember the odd headlight covers on the original LEAF, whose shape was said to be due to wind noise reduction? Finally, there are plenty of drivers who like engine noises at least part of the time, which is why some BEVs offer an artificial version.

Electric power is cheaper than gasoline. At home I'm paying about $1 per equivalent gallon (0.11 per kWh), and about $2.50 (0.31 kWh) for the infrequent fast charge. Based on 1 gallon of gas is about the same as 8 kWh. Energy in a gallon of gasoline is about 33 kWh, and the electric car is about 4 times more efficient.

Today's gas price was $4.546 (3/8/2022) average for Washington State.

https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=WA

Why would I buy a PHEV and pay almost twice as much for energy/fuel on road trips?

Electricity is certainly cheap for you, but then you have some of the cheapest electricity in the country thanks to lots of old hydro: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/ Other locations (like mine) have different ratios.

Your needs are well suited for a BEV, because as you've told us your wife's personal endurance is only 1.5 to 2 hours, and from what you've said doesn't sound like you take multi-hundred let alone multi-thousand mile road trips. Why would anyone buy a PHEV for road trips? Because it allows them to go anywhere they want, any route they want any time they want in any conditions, in the shortest possible time, with maximum flexibility, and without having to plan their trips around charging stops. Current gas prices won't stay this high anymore than they did in 2008 (which is still the highest average U.S. price all-time, adjusted for inflation), so at some point in the probably not too distant future it will once again be cheaper to gas up on trips than it is to FC. After all, it's only been in the past month or so that the reverse has been the case (note, I'm assuming that anyone seriously concerned about gas prices would instead opt to buy an HEV/PHEV, rather than a low-mpg ICE).

Obviously, PHEV sales are starting from a smaller total, but we're seeing the same PHEV/BEV trend in Europe, which I also provided a link to.

Europe:
https://insideevs.com/news/571644/europe-plugin-car-sales-january2022/

BEVs: about *83,000 (up 78% year-over-year, 10% share)
PHEVs: about *73,000 (up 11% year-over-year, 9% share)
Total: 156,236 (up 39% year-over-year, 19% share)

78% is a little more than 11%. Or maybe you were looking at somewhere else.

Yes, yearly not monthly sales, as I consider the former essentially cherry picking a short term interval which (may) mask a long term trend. Provided a link somewhere for the year upthread. However, came across the following while surfing around trying to locate the original source, so my claim about Europe may be wrong (I'll keep looking for the original source):

In December, the electric car market had a record month (181,641 registrations, +7% YoY), but PHEVs dropped significantly (-13% YoY). That was PHEVs’ first sales drop since August 2019. So, while plugin hybrids ended 2021 with the same share they had in 2020 (46%), December tells a different story. BEVs’ share of plugin sales jumped to 65%, a full 11 percentage point jump over the full year result. Will this monthly result provide any type of guidance for the evolution of both technologies in 2022?

January and I think February continued along the same path, so we'll have to see if it changes.

HEVs are even less of a transition for consumers, and use less of the limited battery supply. And just like PHEVs, you don't need to plug them in. :?

Sure, and that's why HEVs are outselling all PEVs in Europe and the U.S. right now.

Yes, but like a horse that just sh!ts a little less, HEVs doesn't help that much with air pollution, and still drives like an ICE, except for short periods of time.

Yes, and that's what the majority of EV users are buying. So much for consumer preference. Obviously their preferences differ from yours and mine, but then MNL members are a self-selected minority.

A transition can be good. I doubt if many horse owners missed shoveling out the stables after getting a horseless carriage. I don't miss stopping at gas stations in the winter at 1 C temperature and with rain coming down horizontally.

Of course a transition can be good, especially when you can't foresee the long-term negative consequences (air pollution from cars wasn't foreseen as an issue, and wasn't until their numbers got very large - until then everyone was glad the streets weren't covered in horse manure and urine, with massive numbers of flies spreading disease. No doubt there will eventually be unforeseen negative consequences of a shift to EVs as well). This transition is good, at least as far as solving our current environmental problems, but in order to make it as quick as possible we want it to be as easy as possible. PHEVs are cars that are electric when you can, and gas when you must or want to, with minimal or no infrastructure upgrades required, the easiest possible transition.

Yet PHEVs require more L1/L2 infrastructure faster. While a PHEV might used a quarter the battery of a BEV, and produce 50% electric miles, home charging would be needed for all of the PHEVs, assuming of course that they would actually be plugged in. HEVs would be better for those that can't plug in yet.

Of course HEVs are better for those who can't plug in, and who know that is unlikely to change in a useful period of time. PHEVs don't require any extra electric infrastructure, nor do they require home charging, but you can bet most people opting to buy one (who aren't motivated by bad incentives like automatic HOV lane access even when running on the ICE) instead of an HEV will have access to charging often enough to be worthwhile. As I said, electric when you can, gas when you want or have to.

I take a two-mile walk in my neighborhood just about every night, both for exercise and to feed a feral cat colony, and I know all the PEVs around there. One of them is a Niro PHEV, which I've never seen plugged in at home. The previous occupants of this house owned two Nissan LEAFs, first a 2012 or so and then replaced it with a 2018. They charged the car at home L1 via an extension cord run out the living room window. Seeing the owner of the Niro one day, I asked her where she plugged in, and she said at work. She also knew many of the locations of public charging stations in town, although she rarely needed to use them. Her commute and local errands are handled and she doesn't worry about the rest, although if she needed or wanted to she could L1 at home the same as the previous occupants did.

This assumes a even bigger government hand forcing PHEVs over BEVs, as PHEVs are mostly currently subsidized and BEVs are most not, at the US Federal level. States are different, of course. A larger subsidy for PHEVs will be needed to overcome the driver preference for a BEV, or for that matter for an ICE.

As you know I'm against direct to consumer subsidies, as they distort the market whenever they prefer a particular tech. I want buyers to make financial decisions without the government's finger being so visibly on the scale. That's why PHEVs far outsold BEVs in the Netherlands for the first few years they were available, as PHEVs had more favorable subsidies there. he opposite was true in other
European countries where the subsidies went the other way. Any time such subsidies distort the market, we have only a vague idea of which product consumers would prefer given a level playing field.

HEVs would provide more reduction in gasoline usage than either PHEVs or BEVs. The limitations to that are customer preferences as well as supply chains.

"Cool Prius" -- Nobody

Even if that's accurate (I've seen various results depending on the use case), HEVs wouldn't reduce air pollution as much in the urban areas where it's concentrated, now would they?

Shifting goals would provide different answers. HEVs would reduce fossil fuel usage and CO2 faster... assuming no supply chain issues other than batteries. Would not provide as much reduction in urban air pollution.

One 60kWh BEV would use the same batteries as 60 HEVs. We could have been at 100% HEVs a few years ago. The real issue to consider here is driver preference.[/quote]


Yes, see above; Consumers still prefer HEVs. If gas prices stay in about the same territory for a while that may change, for financial rather than ideological preference. I've certainly seen articles saying we're at the tipping point for PEVs, but given how rapidly the price has climbed in the past couple of weeks it could drop just as precipitously, and people would go back to buying their full-size ICE pickups without another thought.

Ah yes, like the graph above. You ignore that BEVs are growing faster over the whole period to focus on some cherry-picked interval.

Maybe you don't think you are flogging, but that's the way I see it.

You're entitled to your opinion, but when it comes to cherry-picking, please do take a look in the mirror before accusing anyone else of same.

Feel free to call me out.

I do, and have.

Sure, if driver fits into the "Goldilocks" use case for PHEVs. Some do, some don't. HEVs would do better, of course, at reducing emissions in the shortest time at the lowest cost in batteries at least. Stop-start hybrids aka weak hybrids would do even better, but at least some manufacturers have dropped these do to supply chain issues.

PHEVs aren't Goldilocks cars, that's BEVs right now. Anyone can buy a PHEV and use it for anything they'd use an ICE or HEV for, right now, with no compromise (other than extra upfront cost and some extra weight) or change in behavior required. You can't say that about BEVs yet, which is why we play twenty questions with newbies to see if a BEV will work for them. The answer for BEVs is always "it depends" followed by those questions. For PHEVs the answer is "Sure", but it may or may not provide them any benefit vs. a less expensive ICE/HEV alternative.

BEVs are an edge case car. Very high performance, very clean, lowest cost in some cases.

PHEVs fill the space between BEVs and HEVs. Remember their limitations. If your daily mileage is enough beyond the AER, you might have been better off an HEV.

No argument, that's what I've been saying. For me given my typical usage, if an HEV gets maybe 2 mpg HWY better than a corresponding PHEV, I'll burn less gas on a typical weekend or longer trip with the HEV, because of the distance between charges. But the average American or European driver doesn't have my use case; they commute to work and do local errands every day via car.

 

[GRA]

Walking back from the library after posting the above, I noticed that my neighborhood gas station, which had raised its price for regular to $5.90 two days ago, had upped it to $6 ($5.99 9/10) between the time I walked over and back. As I mentioned upthread it had gone from $4.90 to $5.20 on March 2nd, so that's up $1.10/gal. in one week.

I feel for the people who gave no other option than buying gas, but one positive result of these rapidly rising gas prices is that, combined with the tailing off of Omicron and the beginning of people starting to go in to work a couple of days a week instead of 100% WFH, public transit agencies have seen a noticeable increase in ridership. Since they were only up to something like 30% or so of pre-pandemic levels prior to the price spike, they really need the revenue. Also, the intra-regional rapid transit agency (400k riders/workday pre-pandemic) uses electric trains, so that's another benefit.

 

[WetEV]

I don't see any point at cherry picking short term intervals out of a longer term trend.

One year is a definite change in trend.

No. Not true. Notice that BEVs gain relative to PhEVs from 2014 to 2015. Then lose to 2016. Then gain to 2017. Then lose to 2018. Then gain to 2019. These are not "changes in trend".

And frankly, if PHEVs were growing faster than BEVs, it wouldn't bother me in the slightest. PHEVs will require infrastructure like L1/L2 home, parking garage, workplace and other destination charging. Which BEVs will later need. PHEVs will start the phaseout of the neighborhood gas station, as most fueling will be for longer trips only. PHEVs will ramp up production of power semiconductors and lots of other components, needed for BEVs later.

There is an honest case to be made for PHEVs, now and perhaps very long term with PHEVs with bio/synthetic/hydrogen fuels. And for that matter, until BEV production has ramped up enough to supply everyone, there is an honest case for some to prefer an ICE or a hybrid. This is an improvement over hydrogen fuel cells, so I'm glad to see some progress has been made.

Make the honest case.

BEVs are just nicer to drive than PHEVs, HEVs and ICEs. Driver preference matters. Sure, there are some use cases for PHEVs.

Some BEVs are nicer to drive, but buyer preference obviously shows that most people still prefer to buy ICEs in one form or another.

BEVs were a niche car in the past, and still are now. The niche keeps doubling in size. "Most people" will not be there until the last doubling. Then BEVs will no longer be a niche. You seem to insist that BEVs need to be mainstream first. Which is backwards to reality. The niche must come first, and production/supply chain issues will prevent an instant replacement.

Electric power is cheaper than gasoline. At home I'm paying about $1 per equivalent gallon (0.11 per kWh), and about $2.50 (0.31 kWh) for the infrequent fast charge. Based on 1 gallon of gas is about the same as 8 kWh. Energy in a gallon of gasoline is about 33 kWh, and the electric car is about 4 times more efficient.

Today's gas price was $4.546 (3/8/2022) average for Washington State.

https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=WA

Why would I buy a PHEV and pay almost twice as much for energy/fuel on road trips?

Electricity is certainly cheap for you, but then you have some of the cheapest electricity in the country thanks to lots of old hydro: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/ Other locations (like mine) have different ratios.

I pay just about exactly the national average, and slightly more than the state average.

U.S. average retail price per kilowatthour is 10.59 cents

California pays an average of 18 cents per kWh, which is about $1.44 per gallon equivalent. Gas price has not been below that for the past 10 years for California.

Your needs are well suited for a BEV, because as you've told us your wife's personal endurance is only 1.5 to 2 hours, and from what you've said doesn't sound like you take multi-hundred let alone multi-thousand mile road trips.

So tell me, so why would I know the wife's range? As I've said before, we take a 200+ mile round trip monthly or more often to visit grandchildren. As I've said before, that's one stop on the way there and one stop on the way back. One of which needs to be a charging stop. For less time filling up than emptying.

Why would anyone buy a PHEV for road trips? Because it allows them to go anywhere they want, any route they want any time they want in any conditions, in the shortest possible time, with maximum flexibility, and without having to plan their trips around charging stops.

More true in the past, less true in the future.

Current gas prices won't stay this high anymore than they did in 2008 (which is still the highest average U.S. price all-time, adjusted for inflation), so at some point in the probably not too distant future it will once again be cheaper to gas up on trips than it is to FC. After all, it's only been in the past month or so that the reverse has been the case

EA charges $0.31 per kWh in California (plus $4 per month). That works out to roughly $2.50 per equivalent gallon. Go look at that 10 year chart again. Sure, there have been times that EA was more expensive than gasoline nationwide average. But not in California. And not for long.

Most people drive most miles locally, so fast charging price is a minor part of the cost.

Yes, but like a horse that just sh!ts a little less, HEVs doesn't help that much with air pollution, and still drives like an ICE, except for short periods of time.

Yes, and that's what the majority of EV users are buying. So much for consumer preference. Obviously their preferences differ from yours and mine, but then MNL members are a self-selected minority.

The last is true, of course. You are among the last people, by use case, to rationally switch to an EV. I was among the first. Which brings up a long standing question. You are not the typical MNL member, but rather the other extreme. Why are you here?

Yet PHEVs require more L1/L2 infrastructure faster. While a PHEV might used a quarter the battery of a BEV, and produce 50% electric miles, home charging would be needed for all of the PHEVs, assuming of course that they would actually be plugged in. HEVs would be better for those that can't plug in yet.

Of course HEVs are better for those who can't plug in, and who know that is unlikely to change in a useful period of time.

That is likely to change in the next decade. Oh, I'd guess you will still be holding out.

PHEVs don't require any extra electric infrastructure, nor do they require home charging, but you can bet most people opting to buy one (who aren't motivated by bad incentives like automatic HOV lane access even when running on the ICE) instead of an HEV will have access to charging often enough to be worthwhile. As I said, electric when you can, gas when you want or have to.

Very few electric miles for those that don't have home and/or work place charging. Notice that the same charging infrastructure would provide for more electric miles with BEVs than with PHEVs.

This assumes a even bigger government hand forcing PHEVs over BEVs, as PHEVs are mostly currently subsidized and BEVs are most not, at the US Federal level. States are different, of course. A larger subsidy for PHEVs will be needed to overcome the driver preference for a BEV, or for that matter for an ICE.

As you know I'm against direct to consumer subsidies, as they distort the market whenever they prefer a particular tech. I want buyers to make financial decisions without the government's finger being so visibly on the scale.

You are OK with technologies that dump toxins into people's lungs?

Free dumping is a subsidy.

 

[WetEV]

Yes, see above; Consumers still prefer HEVs. If gas prices stay in about the same territory for a while that may change, for financial rather than ideological preference. I've certainly seen articles saying we're at the tipping point for PEVs, but given how rapidly the price has climbed in the past couple of weeks it could drop just as precipitously, and people would go back to buying their full-size ICE pickups without another thought.

89% of all vehicles sold in the USA are still ICE. Changing, but still a long way to go.

BEVs are an edge case car. Very high performance, very clean, lowest cost in some cases.

PHEVs fill the space between BEVs and HEVs. Remember their limitations. If your daily mileage is enough beyond the AER, you might have been better off an HEV.

No argument, that's what I've been saying. For me given my typical usage, if an HEV gets maybe 2 mpg HWY better than a corresponding PHEV, I'll burn less gas on a typical weekend or longer trip with the HEV, because of the distance between charges. But the average American or European driver doesn't have my use case; they commute to work and do local errands every day via car.

Total cost of ownership for the typical driver already favors BEVs. If the typical driver can find one, without a too long of a wait. Your usage is enough different I'd expect you to be one of the last ICE drivers.

 

[danrjones]

I don't know where you got your avg rate of 18 cents for CA, but SCE is much higher than that - I'm on a three rate TOU system and the cheapest of the three TOU rates is 32 cents and tops out at 46 cents during the winter, during summer its 33 and 52 cents per kWh.

And our gas is currently 5.49 here for regular.



Ok, continue your discussion.

 

[WetEV]

I don't know where you got your avg rate of 18 cents for CA, but SCE is much higher than that - I'm on a three rate TOU system and the cheapest of the three TOU rates is 32 cents and tops out at 46 cents during the winter, during summer its 33 and 52 cents per kWh.

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/

For the year 2020, and I'd expect rates are higher now. SCE raises the average.

And our gas is currently 5.49 here for regular.

How long ago did you check? :lol:

https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=CA

AAA shows $5.75, again state average. As of March 15,2022.