LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

[DNAinaGoodWay]

The model 3 will have the advantage of supercharger access and no dealer hassles. With the gigafactory on schedule, I expect the 3 will ready on time. The next gen LEAF will have to be substantially less expensive to compensate for having only 42 kW QCs, mostly only one per location.

 

[dgpcolorado]

... so I hope Nissan is mindful of that and throws a bone to 1st gen LEAF owners to help them build that same level of loyalty...

It is very unlikely that Nissan will do this. The cost of engineering a higher capacity battery pack that would fit in a few tens of thousands of original LEAFs would be very high, and for what purpose? There are only a small number of LEAF early adopters and many of them have already moved on to other cars.

We are fortunate that Nissan chose to make the current "lizard" battery packs available to us at reasonable cost. But the idea that Nissan will choose to develop a significantly higher capacity pack that will still fit in the current generation of LEAFs strikes me as ludicrous. Feel free to gloat if I am wrong about that someday!

 

[dgpcolorado]

The model 3 will have the advantage of supercharger access and no dealer hassles. With the gigafactory on schedule, I expect the 3 will ready on time. The next gen LEAF will have to be substantially less expensive to compensate for having only 42 kW QCs, mostly only one per location.

Exactly! There is simply no comparison between the Supercharger capable Model III, if it meets price and specs, and the proposed 200 mile BEVs from other car companies. The price differential would have to be large, or the wait list for the Model III very long, for the other cars to sell well. IMO, of course.

 

[desiv]

The model 3 will have the advantage of supercharger access .

Don't think it's said that the Supercharger is included in the price point.
Most likely, it will cost a bit extra (it's a priced line item on the current Tesla models now).

So I still think people looking for lower cost EVs will think twice.

I think being at the same price point as Tesla will be a bad idea (which is where I see Chevy based on what they've said).
But I think there's plenty of market for an EV that's $10k less than the M3, even for a smaller range; and I see Nissan there...

The Supercharger network is great, but not required for everyone.
I'd like a car with access to the Supercharger network, but would it be worth $10k+ more? (Assuming it is.)....

Of course, all this is speculation.. But its' fun.. ;-)

desiv

 

[fotajoye]

The model 3 will have the advantage of supercharger access and no dealer hassles. With the gigafactory on schedule, I expect the 3 will ready on time. The next gen LEAF will have to be substantially less expensive to compensate for having only 42 kW QCs, mostly only one per location.

Exactly! There is simply no comparison between the Supercharger capable Model III, if it meets price and specs, and the proposed 200 mile BEVs from other car companies. The price differential would have to be large, or the wait list for the Model III very long, for the other cars to sell well. IMO, of course.

Since we are all speculating; how about this one? There is the possibility that other car makers will join the Tesla QC network. Tesla is on record for already offering that. Nissan maybe? Who knows?

 

[desiv]

Since we are all speculating; how about this one? There is the possibility that other car makers will join the Tesla QC network. Tesla is on record for already offering that. Nissan maybe? Who knows?

I know Tesla is open to that... And Nissan has been on record numerous times that they feel the infrastructure needs to be improved.

I can't see them getting along for that tho (being a cynic)...
But...
That would be pretty nice...

desiv

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

that would be nice, or even 100 kW CHAdeMOs. And, yes, SC access would probably add a couple thousand. I'm locked in until August. 2017 anyway, it'll be interesting to see what the situation is then.

 

[ishiyakazuo]

The model 3 will have the advantage of supercharger access .

Don't think it's said that the Supercharger is included in the price point.
Most likely, it will cost a bit extra (it's a priced line item on the current Tesla models now).

According to this, it is...
http://insideevs.com/elon-musk-confirms-free-supercharging-for-tesla-gen-3-model-e/

 

[ishiyakazuo]

... so I hope Nissan is mindful of that and throws a bone to 1st gen LEAF owners to help them build that same level of loyalty...

It is very unlikely that Nissan will do this. The cost of engineering a higher capacity battery pack that would fit in a few tens of thousands of original LEAFs would be very high, and for what purpose? There are only a small number of LEAF early adopters and many of them have already moved on to other cars.

This assumes that the new battery modules aren't going to be built to the same dimensions as the existing one. If it's a matter of taking the existing battery and swapping out the 48 modules, it might not be as onerous as you think. Also, they may be testing the higher capacity battery (modules) in (modified) existing LEAFs to keep development of the batteries separate from that of the rest of the new model. If they're going that route (which is not uncommon in the auto industry), depending on the extent of the modifications they might be running, they'll have a fair idea of what it would take to support it, should they choose to offer it.
The fact remains that over 150k LEAFs are out there worldwide, more than any electric vehicle. How many Tesla Roadsters were there? Around 2500, and they're getting that treatment.
Why would Nissan do it? It increases resale value, and more people would consider buying the LEAF (either without leasing or at the end of their lease). I suspect that everyone deciding to lease the LEAF has not been Nissan's dream situation.

 

[dgpcolorado]

Since we are all speculating; how about this one? There is the possibility that other car makers will join the Tesla QC network. Tesla is on record for already offering that. Nissan maybe? Who knows?

I think that there is a possibility that some other manufacturers will join the Tesla Supercharger network. But I don't think that Nissan will be one of them. Nissan seems committed to a BEV with no TMS, for reasons of simplicity and cost, and the battery heating from Supercharging requires a cooling system. Barring a new battery technology that is completely unaffected by temperatures in the 40º - 55ºC range, or a complete change of heart wrt TMS, I think that Nissan won't be participating in the Supercharger network.

 

[dgpcolorado]

... I suspect that everyone deciding to lease the LEAF has not been Nissan's dream situation.

You are mistaken, Nissan was quite surprised at the number of early adopters who chose to buy their LEAFs. They expected most would be leased (and subsequently made leases very attractive). Their corporate representatives even suggested leasing as the most practical way to deal with the uncertainties of battery life in the first LEAFs. They didn't even expect the batteries to ever be replaced, which is why it took them so long to come up with a replacement battery protocol and price.

I don't think that you appreciate just how difficult it is to devise a new high-capacity pack to fit the old form, develop the software to properly adapt and control it and the new voltage levels, and to do the testing required to make sure it will work reliably and safely. And all that for a few tens of thousands of used cars? It seems absurd. Why would they do that when they can sell you a new longer range LEAF?

Those replacement Roadster battery packs are very expensive; the owners who decide to upgrade will be paying dearly for the privilege. It is a completely different market demographic and a completely different corporate strategy.

 

[edatoakrun]

...I don't think that you appreciate just how difficult it is to devise a new high-capacity pack to fit the old form, develop the software to properly adapt and control it and the new voltage levels, and to do the testing required to make sure it will work reliably and safely. And all that for a few tens of thousands of used cars? It seems absurd. Why would they do that when they can sell you a new longer range LEAF?...

By the time the LEAF Gen 2 is released there will probably be 300,000 to 400,000 BEVs (Nissans and some Renaults) using gen 1 batteries, so the market could be quite large, and lucrative, if not for the perverse disincentives to battery replacement imposed by government policies.

Just the Federal tax credit for each new BEV sale in the USA is $7,500, ~$2,000 more than Nissan currently charges for replacement packs (with trade-in). And many states/localities throw more money at BEV sales, Doesn't Colorado pay up to another ~$5k?

So how many LEAF owners will want to pay for a replacement battery out of their own pockets (likely costing more than $5,500, if it has greater than ~24 kWh capacity, as expected for the gen 2) when government entities will essentially pay them ~$2,000 to ~$7,000 to take a new battery (when installed in a new BEV) instead?

 

[vwDavid]

While I have not been involved in the BEV user brain trust for long, as a new owner of a leaf reading about the problems with the batteries I see that Nissan must seriously be considering a battery TMS system.

I was contemplating posting this opinion of my to incite some discussion on this thread. Given the issues, limitations of a battery w/o TMS and the publicity and known issues it has generated I would think Nissan would seriously be considering how to add TMS without a great cost increase.

just my opinion.

 

[ishiyakazuo]

Perhaps. In any case, I hope that they at least continue to drop the prices of the battery packs such that they get down to the $2-3k range in 5 years or so.
Hopefully by then, there's a good, affordable long-range solution (Model III) out there...

 

[TimLee]

... I see that Nissan must seriously be considering a battery TMS system.
...
just my opinion.

I don't know where you get that idea.
If you have reviewed the dialogue with Nissan, they have been very clear they plan to avoid TMS.

Their only concession has been to some air cooling on the van to reduce battery heating during DCQC.

 

[desiv]

According to this, it is...
http://insideevs.com/elon-musk-confirms-free-supercharging-for-tesla-gen-3-model-e/

Interesting, although from that article:

We suspect that access to the Supercharger network will be an option for Gen 3 (so, some will undoubtedly say it isn’t free then).

So not sure if it will be "free" or free charging once you buy the option. ;-)

desiv

 

[pkulak]

Nissan seems committed to a BEV with no TMS, for reasons of simplicity and cost, and the battery heating from Supercharging requires a cooling system.

Leafs actually charge with a higher C value than Teslas. A 48-kWh Leaf could take 80 kW from a Tesla super charger no problem. At least to start.

 

[vwDavid]

... I see that Nissan must seriously be considering a battery TMS system.
...
just my opinion.

I don't know where you get that idea.
If you have reviewed the dialogue with Nissan, they have been very clear they plan to avoid TMS.

Their only concession has been to some air cooling on the van to reduce battery heating during DCQC.

In that case I would like to read more. As I mentioned these were my possibly mid informed opinions. Care to share the location of your reading material ? Thanks.

 

[ishiyakazuo]

According to this, it is...
http://insideevs.com/elon-musk-confirms-free-supercharging-for-tesla-gen-3-model-e/

Interesting, although from that article:

We suspect that access to the Supercharger network will be an option for Gen 3 (so, some will undoubtedly say it isn’t free then).

So not sure if it will be "free" or free charging once you buy the option. ;-)

desiv

Wow, I am not sure how I missed that bit... so yeah, your original point stands, I guess!

 

[minispeed]

The model 3 will have the advantage of supercharger access .

Don't think it's said that the Supercharger is included in the price point.
Most likely, it will cost a bit extra (it's a priced line item on the current Tesla models now).

So I still think people looking for lower cost EVs will think twice.

I think being at the same price point as Tesla will be a bad idea (which is where I see Chevy based on what they've said).
But I think there's plenty of market for an EV that's $10k less than the M3, even for a smaller range; and I see Nissan there...

The Supercharger network is great, but not required for everyone.
I'd like a car with access to the Supercharger network, but would it be worth $10k+ more? (Assuming it is.)....

Of course, all this is speculation.. But its' fun.. ;-)

desiv

Up until yesterday (I think, or a few days prior) supercharging was an option on the 60. Now that the base is the 70D it's standard. If I remember correctly it was a bit over $2000 on the model S.

If I was to guess I think it would be more of a premium feature on the model 3. With the volume they want on the model 3 if most of them had access it would clog up the current superchargers. I think Tesla would be smart to price it very high for the first few years of the model 3 and as they expand the network to keep the ratio of popular charger sites to cars with supercharging the same they can bring the option price down.

While I have not been involved in the BEV user brain trust for long, as a new owner of a leaf reading about the problems with the batteries I see that Nissan must seriously be considering a battery TMS system.

I was contemplating posting this opinion of my to incite some discussion on this thread. Given the issues, limitations of a battery w/o TMS and the publicity and known issues it has generated I would think Nissan would seriously be considering how to add TMS without a great cost increase.

just my opinion.

TMS is not a good thing in the long run. If (yes it's an if) they do get a system that works well without it then the weight/cost/space savings is a good thing for BEVs. If you could run an ICE without a complex cooling system you could have a much cheaper more efficient smaller lighter package. Air cooling had it's advantages but with the huge amount of waste heat in an ICE it was too hard to overcome. With the small amount of waste heat in batteries it is possible to one day have a passive, or very mild active air cooling system meet the needs of even the hottest climates.

...
I don't think that you appreciate just how difficult it is to devise a new high-capacity pack to fit the old form, develop the software to properly adapt and control it and the new voltage levels, and to do the testing required to make sure it will work reliably and safely. And all that for a few tens of thousands of used cars? It seems absurd. Why would they do that when they can sell you a new longer range LEAF?

Those replacement Roadster battery packs are very expensive; the owners who decide to upgrade will be paying dearly for the privilege. It is a completely different market demographic and a completely different corporate strategy.

I would say that a second gen replacement battery in the first gen is probably never ever going to happen. I think that it might have a very very small chance of happening on certified pre owned leafs only. In that case if you wanted one Nissan would tell you the only way to get one is trade your leaf in on one. I think the only reason Nissan has done it is as a good will gesture to the original owners, and with a hope that there will be such a small take rate that they can spin it as a positive to show that degradation didn't affect people that much. (we know this is false those people sold the cars/traded them in but it's still a spin they can make.)

Others have talked about the aftermarket stepping in, I also think this will never ever happen. With the cost of shipping these things being so high and the limited range of driving a car to another city to get it done the investment vs. return is very risky. For that to work they also need the cases back, ie core of the old battery which means 2 way shipping. For any company to do this they have to offer a warrantee, what customer would buy into if every warrantee job has the risk of a $500+ shipping bill with it?

If you want more range you will have to buy a new leaf or..... your best bet is to get a local shop to fabricate a rwd subframe with a small DC motor and a cheap 144v controller that works on the tps from the pedal. Put the leaf into neutral and the pedal still moves but the leaf systems do nothing you get to drive on extended range from the dc system. Put the leaf into drive fire up the rwd system and you have extra power and awd for a small boost in range and added fun.

I know this could be done now and prob. for less than the cost of a Nissan replacement battery. With a used forklift motor ($300ish) and a small 4.8 kWh pack ($2500) and a 48 volt controller ($1000).