Leaf Sales Demand

[adric22]

I thought this deserved a thread of its own, even though I know it has been discussed to various degrees in other threads. I know some people in the media are beginning to use Leaf (and Volt) sales as proof there is no demand for EVs. And I generally shrugged that off being that production was the limiting factor. However, now people are pointing out that there is at least one Leaf available for sale at most dealers now. That might suggest we might have come to a plateau or even a decline in Leaf sales. However, I'm more optimistic than that. I'd like to throw out some things to consider:

• Leaf is still not available in all Markets. So current sales are still only a portion of worldwide demand.
• The Leaf has sold over 8,000 units in the USA this year, despite the restricted supply chain, and the year isn't over yet. By comparison, the Toyota Prius only sold 5,600 units in the USA the first year it went on sale, and only 15,600 the next year.
• Just one vehicle sitting on a lot is not an indication of poor sales. How many Toyota Camry's are sitting on your local Toyota dealer's lot?
• The general public is still mostly unaware that such a vehicle exists.
• Many buyers are hesitant to buy a first-year model, much less a first-of-its-kind. The Prius is a good example. Once it became well known and trusted and the myths of the batteries finally were busted, people began to buy the car like crazy.
• The economy is slow for all car sales right now.
• Sales of the Leaf will be affected by gasoline prices. Right now gasoline isn't at $4.00 anymore, but it will eventually return.
• I've heard that while some dealers may have a Leaf on the lot, they are jacking up the sticker price, meaning people would have to choose to pay the extra money, or wait several months to get one. Again, making the Leaf less attractive.
• Nissan is still building the new production plant in the USA with plans to build 150,000 Leafs per year. Surely they wouldn't have these plans if they didn't believe that the demand would be there for it.
• Charging infrastructure is still in its infancy. Most mainstream buyers will hold off until more public charging stations are available.

So these are the reasons I have to be optimistic. Obviously nobody has a crystal ball and so it is impossible to say what may happen a year or two down the road. Any of these things could further hinder sales of EVs:

• Gasoline prices could drop to $2 per gallon or less.
• Somehow somebody might prove (or at least convince people) that Global Warming isn't true.
• The world economy could continue to collapse further, making purchases of vehicles in the Leaf's price range very limited.

Anyway, there you have it.. Discuss.

 

[JohnnySebring]

The intense scrutiny of the Leaf and complaining here on this forum has probably put off a quite a few potential buyers.

 

[Aeolus]

I find that there is tremendous interest in the LEAF, and even more in the PV/EV synergies. There is also a lot of interest in the plug-in Prius. Lots of questions, but when people see that the LEAF is a real car, and figure out whether it can meet their needs, they really want to move into an all-electric car powered by clean, fresh California sunshine.

People will not move from their regular vehicle replacement schedule, especially in this economy.

 

[GRA]

I'll be interested to see whether the Volt maintains its sales advantage over the Leaf this winter. With colder temps and selling the car in more areas, year-round range becomes an immediate issue for more people. And then I expect the Volt will get another boost when it gets its Cal AT-PHEV cert, and the single-occupancy HOV stickers; how will this affect its sales compared to the Leaf and PiP?

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

i still know of people in my area that are waiting for their Leaf so they aint really sitting on the lots here. granted, due to delays in delivery many have simply changed their minds so there are orphans out there

another thing i think that Nissan has mis-stepped on is not advertising the range results we all know so well but most have not heard about. i also know a few that were turned off to it when i told them that 100 miles is not a range most will get.

telling people not to expect more than 75 miles on a charge in winter pushed a few into investigating other options.

but EVs will flourish. i just gassed up the Pri today at $3.579 which is 6 cents less than the last fillup so gas is basically doing it annual price dip just in time for heating oil season (not here...) now, is it due to lower demand (people dont drive as much during winter) cheaper oil prices (ummm...no) cheaper production costs of winter formula fuel (no way!!) or what??

or is it that oil companies realize that many need to dig deeper into their pockets to heat their homes so they lower the price of gas (sorry sunbelt. u get screwed during A/C season) to lessen the load?

well, the latter is what i believe. i can guarantee that gas prices will be over $4 next summer and come next winter will settle into around $3.70 which is basically another 20-25 cent raise which has been roughly the pricing pattern for a while now.

 

[TickTock]

I know a lot of people who are very interested but are waiting to see if I have any issues down the road. There may be a dip or slowdown the next few years once all the enthusiasts have theirs but that doesn't mean there won't be a second wind once they are proven.

 

[downeykp]

I think some will not consider because of the planning that has to be done before taking the Leaf out of the garage. If you plan on going from point A to point B, 99 times out of 100 you will have no problems with that plan. But what if your commute is on rural roads and 20 miles into your 60 mile round trip commute you are forced to make a 30 mile detour because of a road that was closed by a fallen tree, (this happened yesterday). There is no room for error in this scenario. The Leaf had to be returned home and the ICE car had to do the commute for the day.
Granted this is a very rare occurrence but it does happen. Many do not want to have to think about such matters. So they get in ICE and drive.

 

[Danal]

How sure are you the cars you see "Sitting on a Lot" are "available for sale"?

I did succeed in buying off a lot about a month ago... but some of the Dealers who I assumed had vehicles wouldn't/couldn't sell them. Demo vehicles that were still in the 6 month demo period, a used LEAF that was for sale about the same price as new but with no tax incentive (it's still there, a month later), an "ordered but refused" car that was ordered without a high-speed-charge port, and more.



Having said that, I agree that LEAFs are more available now, and there are at least a few immediately available on any given day. I'm just noting that the quantity available may not be as large as it appears on first blush.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I think some will not consider because of the planning that has to be done before taking the Leaf out of the garage. If you plan on going from point A to point B, 99 times out of 100 you will have no problems with that plan. But what if your commute is on rural roads and 20 miles into your 60 mile round trip commute you are forced to make a 30 mile detour because of a road that was closed by a fallen tree, (this happened yesterday). There is no room for error in this scenario. The Leaf had to be returned home and the ICE car had to do the commute for the day.
Granted this is a very rare occurrence but it does happen. Many do not want to have to think about such matters. So they get in ICE and drive.

i have made that detour. i used to work in DuPont and my commute was about 15 minutes but then the flood in 97 took out the Nisqually Cut Off Bridge forcing me to backtrack all the way to Marvin Road which more than doubled my drive time and partially due to the greatly increased traffic from everyone else who had to do the same.

 

[qcar]

Behind-the -times-me just watched Who Killed the electric car the other week for the first time (maybe in a few years I'll be ready for the sequel). In any case, I was presently surprised to see the back stories of all those friendly people who ran up and gave me a hug while hundreds of us were lined up preparing for the Santa Monica Plug-in America day parade. I understood something then that I didn't understand while I was at the parade, this gathering means so much more to them than it did me. Don't get me wrong, I was thrilled beyond measure to be part of something that was at the tip of a paradigm shift in the world of transportation. But these special people, yes, these people were looking at me, a guy oblivious to their struggle, and the other hundreds of me's that day and thinking to themselves- they have no idea and that in itself is such a wonderful thing. To having reached a point where the hardest thing I had to do to get my Leaf was simply to wait for delivery (ok so it was a bit long of a wait)- that truly is a marvelous future to have arrived now.

I think mass production electric cars have reached the point where there is no turning back, no recalling leases, no crushing cars or even dreams. Thank you all who helped us to get here and no doubt the demand will grow. While it clearly is still the time for hybrids to flourish and increase market share over the ICE , the path to all electric has been beaten down and cleared allowing a few thousand of us lucky ones to run ahead of the pack.

 

[evnow]

I don't know what the demand is. We will know when each dealer has a dozen or so Leafs on the lot - different trims & colors - that is he is actively trying to sell.

The demand for a complicated web based ordering system where you have to wait for a few months to get the car you are not sure would work for you (based on pathetic mainstream press on EVs) is not for the faint-hearted. If this is the way people had to order Camry, it wouldn't see too many either.

 

[tps]

And there's still a chunk of the country (me included) who have not had a chance to order yet. So far as I can tell, we've still got a supply side problem; Nissan is selling them pretty much as fast as they build them. I don't expect that to change until Smyrna come on;ine and up to speed.

 

[Train]

People are just not going to consider buying a car that has a 75 mile range for $36,000 +tax, title, and destination. When I say people, I mean your average car shopper. Not early adopters, electric vehicle enthusiasts and other techies.

I hate to throw a wet blanket out there but this is going to be the coming reality. There will be dozens of LEAFS on dealer lots in January and February.

At $20,000, it may make sense as a commuter car for the average buyer. At almost $40,000, people are going to walk away and buy a Versa instead. Or a Sonic, or Malibu, or Focus or any of a number of petrol cars.

The truth can sometimes be hard to accept. But be prepared because this is precisely what is going to happen. Most people need a "do-it-all" vehicle. A car they can take take on long weekend trip, run errands, go to work, and not be counting down the miles to a dead stop. Practicality. For most buyers, an electric car like the LEAF is not practical. At $36,000, it becomes a luxury. It's just not convenient enough.

The sales numbers will continue to be insignificant in the overall 13-14 million or so that will be sold next year. With so many new petrol powered cars that are returning 35-40 mpg highway at a third to one half of the cost, it will make no sense for the average car buyer to spend $15,000 more for a car that has 1/4 the range and takes a minimum of 8 hours to charge.

In my opinion, there will probably be dealer rebates and incentives for LEAFS by the time February rolls around. Selling to enthusiasts is easy.

And I'm not even talking about when the potential buyer hears that it will be another $2000 for a charger that will bring down the charge time to 8 hours. "You mean it will take 16-20 hours with just a standard plug?" There are also millions of apt dwellers. They're going to try to convince their landlord to spend thousands of dollars to place a 120V or 220V drop to their particular carport so they can charge? Then what if they move 6 months later?

Millions of others park on the street. That alone introduces all kinds of obstacles.

 

[cwerdna]

^^^^
For some context, for those who missed another thread, I posted a lot of auto industry sales stats at http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=148471#p148471" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

For people in states like CA who bought early enough, the '11 SV MSRP was $32780. Then there's the $7500 Federal tax credit and a $5000 CVRP, bringing the price down (before TTL) to the low $20K range. Unfortunately, the price bump coupled w/CVRP being $2500 now means a '12 SV is ~$25,200 before TTL in CA.

I agree that it's easy to sell to enthusiasts. For apartment dwellers (I was one, until recently), agree, it's a challenge. I may become an apartment dweller again in the future. Also, for me, I'm not working at the moment so I'm unwilling to buy/lease a Leaf as its range may not work for my future commute. If it does, I'll most likely lease or possibly buy a used Leaf.

 

[evnow]

People are just not going to consider buying a car that has a 75 mile range for $36,000 +tax, title, and destination. When I say people, I mean your average car shopper. Not early adopters, electric vehicle enthusiasts and other techies.

That's well understood. The real question is how many "early adopters, electric vehicle enthusiasts and other techies" are there ?

 

[Herm]

That's well understood. The real question is how many "early adopters, electric vehicle enthusiasts and other techies" are there ?

How many will there be if you can only get 4 gallons of gasoline a week under national emergency rationing?.. it could happen if trouble erupts in Iran. You could make a hefty profit reselling your weekly ration.

 

[ENIAC]

The sales numbers will continue to be insignificant in the overall 13-14 million or so that will be sold next year.

The automobile market is so super segmented that no individual model makes up a significant portion of the overall SAAR. Even the #1 selling Camry only makes up 2% of the 13M - 14M SAAR. However, the LEAF is outselling 15 other MY2011 vehicles presently. It's in no risk of getting killed any time soon.

 

[cwerdna]

The sales numbers will continue to be insignificant in the overall 13-14 million or so that will be sold next year.

The automobile market is so super segmented that no individual model makes up a significant portion of the overall SAAR. Even the #1 selling Camry only makes up 2% of the 13M - 14M SAAR. However, the LEAF is outselling 15 other MY2011 vehicles presently. It's in no risk of getting killed any time soon.

Yeah, but the Camry has sold 251K units in the US to date. The top selling vehicle (not car) in the US is the Ford F-Series truck almost 469K sales YTD.

Also, to put Leaf sales in some other context, look at sales of monstrosity class (full-sized) SUVs from GM at http://media.gm.com/content/dam/Media/gmcom/investor/2011/DeliveriesOct2011.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; like the Yukon, Tahoe, Suburban, and Escalade.

 

[Caracalover]

Most people need a "do-it-all" vehicle. A car they can take take on long weekend trip, run errands, go to work, and not be counting down the miles to a dead stop. Practicality. For most buyers, an electric car like the LEAF is not practical. At $36,000, it becomes a luxury. It's just not convenient enough.

Practical? Is finding a gas station on a cold rainy night practical? I had range anxiety in my Silverado the other day as I started up the mountain road I usually use my Leaf for - no gas staions on that road, and no ability to regenerate going downhill with an ICE. I made it home with a low fuel warning, something I don't see often when I drive electric. There are still many places a gas powered vehicle is also not practical, and I would dare to say that around schools is one of them. Why should we allow it?

An electric car like the Leaf is not only practical, it is for many situations the only practical car available.

The convience of the Leaf is wonderful. What could be easier than a car with no smog checks or oil changes? Now let us talk about fuel issues. Don't talk on a cell phone while you are filling up your ICE, you could catch fire. Don't get back in your car and rub your feet on the luxurious carpet or the static spark might light you up when you disconnect the fuel hose. After I plug in my Leaf, I can go to sleep in my nice warm bed, safe that it will charge while I am at home. I can talk on the phone and rub my feet in the carpet without fear. You seem to accept these impractical, inconvenient issues with an ICE, but I do not. I am very grateful to not have them in my life much any more. When I can I will convert my Silverado to electric, or buy a truck that was built to run on electricity. Wish I had the option in years past, perhaps in the future I will.

I have to say that for reliable, an electric vehicle has any ICE beat. No starter to malfunction, no belts to break, no repairs of gaskets or oil leaks or a myriad of things that disable ICE vehicles on the steep uphills. This will be evident to all soon enough, and the market share that Nissan is building will pay off in the long term.

Add to that I don't have to swipe my credit card every week to fuel it up (I drive about 350 miles a week, 9000 since I bought it in March). The Nissan Leaf is a very thrifty, convenient, and practical way to get around town. Anyone that says different doesn't know what they are saying.

 

[smkettner]

I speculate the additional orphans this time of year is from left over and unassigned 2011 models.
Just saying production to the very last 2011 vehicle may not have been perfectly matched with the ordering system.