Nissan and others have four years

[Desertstraw]

Tesla Motors (TSLA_) announced its Supercharger network will now allow drivers of the Model S to travel across the country, without experiencing range anxiety. And it's going to do it much faster than people think.
The network, which will triple by the end of next month, up from 9 to 27, will allow Model S drivers to travel long distances for free, indefinitely, the company said in an email.

 He's (Musk) hoping to get a more affordable car in the 3 to 4 year time-frame..... Musk has said he'd like the car to cost in the $30,000 to $40,000 range.

From The Street.

 

[apvbguy]

Tesla Motors (TSLA_) announced its Supercharger network will now allow drivers of the Model S to travel across the country, without experiencing range anxiety. And it's going to do it much faster than people think.
The network, which will triple by the end of next month, up from 9 to 27, will allow Model S drivers to travel long distances for free, indefinitely, the company said in an email.

 He's (Musk) hoping to get a more affordable car in the 3 to 4 year time-frame..... Musk has said he'd like the car to cost in the $30,000 to $40,000 range.

From The Street.

I really hope that his ideas come to be however here on the east coast things haven't gone well with their planned network up the I 95 corridor.
massive gaps in the setup and the planned ability to driver from Boston to FLA just isn't there. I hope these are just growing pains.

IMHO the goal for the EV manufacturers should not be creating a cross country car they should be creating the most economical people hauler that can offer around a 200 mile or so range without a recharge.
the long distance networks are fine but maybe those could be a secondary goal.

EDIT:
another thread has an article from TESLA announcing big plans for a nationwide 'supercharging" network

 

[adric22]

I think the supercharger stations are cool and all. But really I think the main purpose is just to put a stop to the age old argument that EVs are no good because you can't drive cross country. Even though most people that bring that argument up probably never actually drive cross country, they still demand the car be capable of it. So the supercharger network has a psychological effect to it and adds legitimacy to the Tesla brand because it is just one less silly argument that can be used against them.

 

[TonyWilliams]

I think the supercharger stations are cool and all. But really I think the main purpose is just to put a stop to the age old argument that EVs are no good because you can't drive cross country. Even though most people that bring that argument up probably never actually drive cross country, they still demand the car be capable of it. So the supercharger network has a psychological effect to it and adds legitimacy to the Tesla brand because it is just one less silly argument that can be used against them.

It's the same for registered dogs or 4 wheel drive SUV's. I don't know how many folks driving a huge SUV need 4 wheel drive, but the ones here in SoCal never go off-road, and we don't snow.

Same for dogs; I don't know how many need a registered bird dog, etc. They do need the "pedigree" or status.

 

[CMYK4Life]

4 years to do what?

Or else what?

Another doom and gloom forum post by you?

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I would strike the word "Nissan" in the title and add Mercedes, or BMW or Lexus maybe but Nissan? they have nothing to do with Tesla, they are not in the same market or anything else.

The EV market covers less than one percent of the 15 million unit new car market so what makes you think that some sort of wonder product by Tesla completely close down the market to anyone else? or will make any difference to anyone else? I, for one will never buy a Tesla (unless I win the lottery...) and I doubt I am alone.

What Tesla is doing right is due to the money they have to play with and that is no different than any other high end product. They finance their excesses thru the price you pay for the vehicle and Tesla knows that only a handful of people will use the SC network more than a half dozen times a year so its investment into the network might as well be taken from their advertising budget.

In any product, money talks, the rest of us have to make a budget and that includes Nissan but even if they carve out 1% of the new car market that is 150,000 annually, not bad. not where they want to be but acceptable for now I am sure.

besides, like any new business, we cannot even begin to guess what technology will bring us. I am tired of reading about a dozen battery break thrus a week without any product but sooner or later (and it will probably be sooner) one will actually lead to something real. With that, Tesla gets no advantage other than free charging which I can live without simply because paying for juice at home I can do past the point my grandchildren retirement and still save money over the Tesla's sticker price.

 

[Desertstraw]

I would strike the word "Nissan" in the title and add Mercedes, or BMW or Lexus maybe but Nissan? they have nothing to do with Tesla, they are not in the same market or anything else.

The EV market covers less than one percent of the 15 million unit new car market so what makes you think that some sort of wonder product by Tesla completely close down the market to anyone else? or will make any difference to anyone else? I, for one will never buy a Tesla (unless I win the lottery...) and I doubt I am alone.

What Tesla is doing right is due to the money they have to play with and that is no different than any other high end product. They finance their excesses thru the price you pay for the vehicle and Tesla knows that only a handful of people will use the SC network more than a half dozen times a year so its investment into the network might as well be taken from their advertising budget.

In any product, money talks, the rest of us have to make a budget and that includes Nissan but even if they carve out 1% of the new car market that is 150,000 annually, not bad. not where they want to be but acceptable for now I am sure.

besides, like any new business, we cannot even begin to guess what technology will bring us. I am tired of reading about a dozen battery break thrus a week without any product but sooner or later (and it will probably be sooner) one will actually lead to something real. With that, Tesla gets no advantage other than free charging which I can live without simply because paying for juice at home I can do past the point my grandchildren retirement and still save money over the Tesla's sticker price.

"Musk has said he'd like the car to cost in the $30,000 to $40,000 range." Assuming that Musk can do it, and he has a good track record, the others will have to match him or go out of business.

As for being a "gloom and doom" post, I regard this as an optimistic post. If in four years, you can buy a car that matches or betters the ICE cars for $35,00, the price of a Leaf, the game is won for electric cars.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

"Musk has said he'd like the car to cost in the $30,000 to $40,000 range." Assuming that Musk can do it, and he has a good track record, the others will have to match him or go out of business.

As for being a "gloom and doom" post, I regard this as an optimistic post. If in four years, you can buy a car that matches or betters the ICE cars for $35,00, the price of a Leaf, the game is won for electric cars.

I foresee Nissan sticking with the "economical" end of the EV spectrum. They will probably continue to lower the cost of the Leaf. I'm hopeful that they will offer a longer range option, but I expect them to be "untouchable" by Tesla in terms of entry-level price.

Musk has said that he intends his 3r generation car to compete with a BMW 3-series. Those aren't the kinds of cars that are priced to be "mainstream". He very well may gather 150,000 sales/year, but there will still be plenty of people for whom ~75 mile is good enough and simply cannot afford a Tesla. Heck, when I look at my 2-car household, the Leaf is perfect already for one of those two cars. Once I have a Leaf+Tesla, I will probably want to replace the Leaf with another inexpensive ~75 mile EV, given that I would also have a 200-300 mile EV parked next to it.

 

[adric22]

Yeah, I think the Leaf is always going to be the poor-man's EV. Not that this is a bad thing, if the price is right. If Nissan wants to compete with the likes of Tesla they'll need to use their Infinity brand to do it.

Now that I can look at the entire EV movement in hindsight, I see why Tesla is more successful than Nissan and GM. It seems that Nissan is trying to make EV's affordable to the average Joe. Which is a noble goal, no doubt. But the average Joe at this point in the game is too ignorant to want an EV. Another problem has been that Nissan has tried to market to the tree-hugger. Fortunately, this is changing now. But that market is very small. Tesla is marketing to the high-end and trying to show that driving an EV is the best driving experience. I think GM's problem with the Volt is also lack of proper marketing. Most people think the Volt is just an expensive hybrid Cruze. Other people think it is an expensive all-electric car with a range of 38 miles. Add to that all of the political attacks, etc. Its really hard to sell it without people being intelligent enough to understand it. Even with these cheap compliance cars out there, and even cheaper EVs like the Mitsubishi i-Miev that nobody is buying it really goes to prove that price is not everything.

So what I'm saying is that for the next few years, performance should be the motivating factor behind an EV. And that means a higher priced vehicle. I think Nissan could potentially take advantage of this market with a higher-priced, higher range Infinity model. Until the masses are smart enough to drive EVs, this is likely the way things will be for a while.

 

[EVDRIVER]

I would strike the word "Nissan" in the title and add Mercedes, or BMW or Lexus maybe but Nissan? they have nothing to do with Tesla, they are not in the same market or anything else.

The EV market covers less than one percent of the 15 million unit new car market so what makes you think that some sort of wonder product by Tesla completely close down the market to anyone else? or will make any difference to anyone else? I, for one will never buy a Tesla (unless I win the lottery...) and I doubt I am alone.

What Tesla is doing right is due to the money they have to play with and that is no different than any other high end product. They finance their excesses thru the price you pay for the vehicle and Tesla knows that only a handful of people will use the SC network more than a half dozen times a year so its investment into the network might as well be taken from their advertising budget.

In any product, money talks, the rest of us have to make a budget and that includes Nissan but even if they carve out 1% of the new car market that is 150,000 annually, not bad. not where they want to be but acceptable for now I am sure.

besides, like any new business, we cannot even begin to guess what technology will bring us. I am tired of reading about a dozen battery break thrus a week without any product but sooner or later (and it will probably be sooner) one will actually lead to something real. With that, Tesla gets no advantage other than free charging which I can live without simply because paying for juice at home I can do past the point my grandchildren retirement and still save money over the Tesla's sticker price.

"Musk has said he'd like the car to cost in the $30,000 to $40,000 range." Assuming that Musk can do it, and he has a good track record, the others will have to match him or go out of business.

As for being a "gloom and doom" post, I regard this as an optimistic post. If in four years, you can buy a car that matches or betters the ICE cars for $35,00, the price of a Leaf, the game is won for electric cars.

Must has a terrible track record for holding to prices. The 30-40 wil be 40-50 and then some change likely.

 

[TomT]

And I, for one, would buy one in a heartbeat! I've always considered the 3 to be the sweet spot.

Musk has said that he intends his 3rd generation car to compete with a BMW 3-series.

 

[dgpcolorado]

Must has a terrible track record for holding to prices. The 30-40 wil be 40-50 and then some change likely.

This is my view also. I'd be really surprised if Tesla releases a $30K Bluestar in four years. Pleased, but surprised.

My guess is that Tesla will have to stick to their higher-end market to make ends meet for considerably longer than four years. So I don't buy the premise that "Nissan and others have four years" left.

 

[Stoaty]

I would say that Tesla has four years left to get the price of their product down to where the masses can afford it. If Nissan can increase energy density by a factor of 1.5 in their next battery pack and find a chemistry that is less susceptible to heat, they will have sown up the low end (=volume) market.

 

[evnow]

Must has a terrible track record for holding to prices. The 30-40 wil be 40-50 and then some change likely.

This is my view also. I'd be really surprised if Tesla releases a $30K Bluestar in four years. Pleased, but surprised.

May be a similar strategy to Model S - where the lower end Gen 3 gets cancelled.

By cancelling the $50k S, Tesla has essentially left it open for the Gen 3. So, I expect the lowest end Gen 3 to cost $40k, but have a 40 kWh battery (and thus not 200 miles). $50k will have 200 mile range. The $40k will also not have supercharger capability - forcing people to upgrade to the $50k car.

Meanwhile, in 4 years, Leaf S will be about $20k, with the S price reduced by 2k every year. Expect $100/month lease deals for S in 4 years and potentially 20k cars sold a month (similar to current Civic numbers).

 

[mitch672]

Tesla is not aiming for a massive volume, ever. Their long term goal is the electrification of the fleet, and figure out how to monetize that goal. While everyone is focused on making the lowest cost, cheapest EV, Tesla is involved in an end run, that will result in meeting their goals.

Once Tesla proves long distance travel is possible in an EV, it's likely they will license their drivetrain, pack and SuperCharger access to manufacturers who want in on supplying EVs, but are too late to the game, so they'll just license it from Tesla. GM, Ford, Toyota, all capable of massive mass manufacturing, If it costs them $1,000-$1,500 per copy to have a compatible long distance EV, that can use Teslas nationwide SuperChargers, Tesla becomes the defacto EV standard, Tesla will become an energy supplier (that makes more money giving away free electricity than building EVs), and the SuperCharger network will be vastly expanded. Tesla will making twice as much on licensing fees than building EVs. But you say, why would the majors just not build their own network? They are certainly welcome to, and could copy Tesla, but they'll probably just join them, because of the investment required to copy them

Randy Carlson laid this all out in March, in his "Seeking Alpha" article "SuperCharging Tesla"
Article: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1300141-supercharging-tesla?source=kizur" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[DanCar]

... and find a chemistry that is less susceptible to heat...

More likely they will add a thermal management system (TMS). Haven't heard of a practical chemistry that isn't affected by heat.

 

[LEAFfan]

... and find a chemistry that is less susceptible to heat...

More likely they will add a thermal management system (TMS). Haven't heard of a practical chemistry that isn't affected by heat.

No, Andy emphatically stated that no TMS will be used, but a different pack that can withstand heat and cold. I predict they will have this pack for the 2015 MY.

 

[Deleted member 8423]

By cancelling the $50k S, Tesla has essentially left it open for the Gen 3. So, I expect the lowest end Gen 3 to cost $40k, but have a 40 kWh battery (and thus not 200 miles). $50k will have 200 mile range. The $40k will also not have supercharger capability - forcing people to upgrade to the $50k car.

Interesting. What makes you think they wouldn't include Supercharger capability in the lowest end model? Just because they "need" to have something at that price point?

Meanwhile, in 4 years, Leaf S will be about $20k, with the S price reduced by 2k every year. Expect $100/month lease deals for S in 4 years and potentially 20k cars sold a month (similar to current Civic numbers).

How are they going to be able to shave $2k off the price of the S every year? $20k seems unrealistic without significant battery developments hitting the market.

There have been other discussions about the limited quantities of the S model being made available, basically just to hit a price point that gets people in the door. Maybe the S doesn't even exist in a few years.

 

[TomT]

+1 And more power to them for doing so! Frankly, I am far more impressed by Tesla than I am by Nissan...

Tesla is not aiming for a massive volume, ever. Their long term goal is the electrification of the fleet, and figure out how to monetize that goal. While everyone is focused on making the lowest cost, cheapest EV, Tesla is involved in an end run, that will result in meeting their goals.

 

[adric22]

Tesla will making twice as much on licensing fees than building EVs. But you say, why would the majors just not build their own network? They are certainly welcome to, and could copy Tesla, but they'll probably just join them, because of the investment required to copy them

I'm afraid I'll have to disagree. Lets face it, if electric vehicles became popular enough that the likes of GM and Ford cared to really get in there and compete to the point they'd be willing to spend $1,500 per vehicle on licensing, I think we could safely say the 3rd party charging station providers would be jumping in to fill this need. Tesla is building the supercharger network because nobody else will. It is an investment that will likely keep paying for itself for many years. But ultimately, 20 or 30 years down the line I think there will be plenty of chargepoint, blink, and eVgo stations around to take care of this.