Nissan's new problem: Not enough Leafs July 15, 2013

[DannyAmes]

"We're going to be short on inventory all through the summer,"

http://www.autonews.com/article/20130715/RETAIL01/307159944/nissans-new-problem-not-enough-leafs#axzz2Z5xmNHwz" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Nissan's new problem: Not enough Leafs ...
by Lindsay Chappell July 15, 2013


http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news/nissans-latest-leaf-problem-not-enough-cars-071513.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
NIssan's latest Leaf problem: not enough cars
07/15/2013 By James R. Hood


One big -- and largely unexpected change -- is that the car is selling in
parts of the country far from its expected demand centers of San Francisco,
Seattle and other environmentally-conscious markets.


Tipping point

Why the sudden demand? Well, gas prices are rising again and many consumers
are starting to realize that they can do their daily commute and maybe work
in a quick stop at the supermarket on a single charge. The dread "range
anxiety" is starting to fade, in other words.



http://www.dailytech.com/Nissan+Struggles+with+Leaf+EV+Shortage+as+Sales+Surge/article31978c.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Nissan Struggles with Leaf EV Shortage as Sales Surge
Shane McGlaun (Blog) - July 16, 2013

 

[wsbsteven]

I'll comment as my home town was used in the figures. There is only a 6 minute difference in average commute time between STL and LA with STL being 2 minutes below national average and LA being 4 minutes over. The article says LA is less dense than STL when really LA is the most densely populated area in the USA. There may be reasons for people from LA to go between Santa Ana and Santa Clarita but University City is pretty much a college and low income housing, not much a reason to make that unexpected trip.

When I was shopping from my Leaf there was one dealer with 12 and many others with less than 2 on their lot. The total number of Leaf cars was less than 25. I just checked and I stopped counting Leaf stock at 50 and that only counted about 6 dealers in the metro. This doesn't mean there isn't a shortage of Leaf production but it seems like the supply is much higher than it was when I purchased mine.

 

[RonDawg]

I'll comment as my home town was used in the figures. There is only a 6 minute difference in average commute time between STL and LA with STL being 2 minutes below national average and LA being 4 minutes over. The article says LA is less dense than STL when really LA is the most densely populated area in the USA. There may be reasons for people from LA to go between Santa Ana and Santa Clarita but University City is pretty much a college and low income housing, not much a reason to make that unexpected trip.

LA is hardly "the most densely populated area in the USA." I would say New York City (Manhattan in particular) and the San Francisco Bay area are far more densely populated. If you fly between LA and SF, and look out the window, you can even see the sizes of the housing development lots are significantly larger in LA than in the Bay Area.

We are extremely spread out though. Most of my co-workers drive at least 30 miles to work one way, with many of them driving 60 miles one way. SoCal's urban sprawl is such that there is continuous development from the northern edge of Camp Pendleton all the way to the northern edge of Ventura County, all the way up to the mountains (and in the cases of the Antelope Valley and the Victor Valley, beyond the mountains).

 

[TomT]

Odd, considering that the Tenn. factory was supposed to be able to churn out ten times that number... Clearly they are having some significant - and perhaps unforeseen - problems ramping up production...

"We're going to be short on inventory all through the summer,"

 

[palmermd]

Odd, considering that the Tenn. factory was supposed to be able to churn out ten times that number... Clearly they are having some significant - and perhaps unforeseen - problems ramping up production...

"We're going to be short on inventory all through the summer,"

Marketing 101...pretend like there is a big demand and low supply to lure in buyers. I was just at the local Nissan dealer earlier today and there are plenty on the lot including the S which is reportedly in short supply.

 

[Berlino]

OP: Next time, you may wish to just post a brief summary of the news with links to the original articles.

1) Copying entire articles could break copyright laws.
2) Long articles stringed together are hard to wade through.
3) Anyone wanting more info can use the links.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Six on the lot at my local dealer, and those were just the ones I saw, there could have been more in the back forty.

May not sound like much to Californians but that's the most i've ever seen here.

 

[GRA]

I'll comment as my home town was used in the figures. There is only a 6 minute difference in average commute time between STL and LA with STL being 2 minutes below national average and LA being 4 minutes over. The article says LA is less dense than STL when really LA is the most densely populated area in the USA. There may be reasons for people from LA to go between Santa Ana and Santa Clarita but University City is pretty much a college and low income housing, not much a reason to make that unexpected trip.

LA is hardly "the most densely populated area in the USA." I would say New York City (Manhattan in particular) and the San Francisco Bay area are far more densely populated. If you fly between LA and SF, and look out the window, you can even see the sizes of the housing development lots are significantly larger in LA than in the Bay Area.

We are extremely spread out though. Most of my co-workers drive at least 30 miles to work one way, with many of them driving 60 miles one way. SoCal's urban sprawl is such that there is continuous development from the northern edge of Camp Pendleton all the way to the northern edge of Ventura County, all the way up to the mountains (and in the cases of the Antelope Valley and the Victor Valley, beyond the mountains).

The LA 'urban area' is more densely populated than the NYC or San Francisco urban areas. However, NYC itself (the five boroughs) and the City and County of San Francisco are both far more densely populated than the _city_ of Los Angeles. The population density of LA and its urban area is very even, with the urban area being just a little less than the city. NYC and San Francisco are very different, with the cities having very high densities and the urban areas much lower ones.

 

[smkettner]

LEAF has been at less than 30 day inventory for 2.5+ years (since inception).... where is the "news" here?

 

[RonDawg]

The LA 'urban area' is more densely populated than the NYC or San Francisco urban areas. However, NYC itself (the five boroughs) and the City and County of San Francisco are both far more densely populated than the _city_ of Los Angeles. The population density of LA and its urban area is very even, with the urban area being just a little less than the city. NYC and San Francisco are very different, with the cities having very high densities and the urban areas much lower ones.

Sorry, but the stats don't support most of your position.

LA City: 7500 people per square mile (3.8 million people, 469 square miles)
New York City (all 5 boroughs): 27,000 people per square mile (8.3 million people, 302 square miles)
City and County of San Francisco: 17,200 people per square mile (825,000 people, 47 square miles)

Los Angeles County: 2400 people per square mile (9.8 million people, 4,000 square miles)
LA/OC/Ventura Counties: 944 people per square mile (6.6 million people, 7200 square miles)
Greater LA (5 counties): 532 people per square mile (18.1 million people, 34,000 square miles)
New York Metropolitan area: 2800 people per square mile (18.9 million, 6700 square miles)
San Francisco Peninsula (SF and San Mateo counties): 11,600 people per square mile (9.1 million, 787 square miles)
San Francisco Bay Area (9 counties): 1,023 people per square mile (7.15 million people, 6,985 square miles)

 

[Stoaty]

LEAF has been at less than 30 day inventory for 2.5+ years (since inception).... where is the "news" here?

The news is that in spite of previous claims that production would be ramping up by May with the new factory in Tennessee, Nissan still has a ways to go and sales are still supply constrained (even at more than 2,000 per month).

 

[smkettner]

And yet not much is mentioned on current production vs eventual production capacity or targets.
No real news.

 

[DannyAmes]

OP: Next time, you may wish to just post a brief summary of the news with links to the original articles.

1) Copying entire articles could break copyright laws.
2) Long articles stringed together are hard to wade through.
3) Anyone wanting more info can use the links.

Good points.
Duly noted & edited.

 

[DaveEV]

"We're going to be short on inventory all through the summer,"

Odd, considering that the Tenn. factory was supposed to be able to churn out ten times that number... Clearly they are having some significant - and perhaps unforeseen - problems ramping up production...

Given that the LEAFs hitting the dealers are still using Japanese drivertrains and batteries, yes, I think something is up with the domestic production of the motor and batteries...

 

[RegGuheert]

One big -- and largely unexpected change -- is that the car is selling in
parts of the country far from its expected demand centers of San Francisco,
Seattle and other environmentally-conscious markets.

One of my main messages to Nissan management during the advisory board visit to HQ in January was that they needed to access this huge market in order to grow their sales. (IOW, the US is not just CA.) There is already a giant group for which the range is sufficient for a round-trip commute without installing infrastructure. And this group will grow as the range of the vehicle grows.

Reliability will be the key to sustaining this growth. This may be an issue for Nissan in the hotter climates as more and more people have issues with battery capacity fade, but in the northern half of the US I think the reputation of the LEAF should be quite good. Time will tell.

 

[kikbuti]

My dealer in Northeast Cincinnati had 5 Leafs in stock this month, the most ever. They have two left. The have no S models and said availability of the S model is short. Dealers refuse to dealer trade unless they get another S model in return.

 

[cwerdna]

"We're going to be short on inventory all through the summer,"

Odd, considering that the Tenn. factory was supposed to be able to churn out ten times that number... Clearly they are having some significant - and perhaps unforeseen - problems ramping up production...

Given that the LEAFs hitting the dealers are still using Japanese drivertrains and batteries, yes, I think something is up with the domestic production of the motor and batteries...

Call me puzzled as well. I wonder if they're actually having production troubles w/the drivetrain and batteries in Japan and don't want to replicate the process to the US until all the kinks are worked out?

I didn't ask the dealer I went to about their stock levels and whether it was above/below normal, but they definitely had numerous new Leafs on the lot.

There is the possibility that they could be having production or supply problems w/one or multiple other components (which may have nothing to do w/the batteries or drivetrain), holding up production of entire Leafs. Unfortunately, cranking up production isn't as easy as a turning a knob up to 10 or 11.

 

[Nubo]

We are extremely spread out though. Most of my co-workers drive at least 30 miles to work one way, with many of them driving 60 miles one way. SoCal's urban sprawl is such that there is continuous development from the northern edge of Camp Pendleton all the way to the northern edge of Ventura County, all the way up to the mountains (and in the cases of the Antelope Valley and the Victor Valley, beyond the mountains).

I know; it's simply mind-boggling how long it takes to fly over all that -- in a jet!

 

[Reddy]

One big -- and largely unexpected change -- is that the car is selling in
parts of the country far from its expected demand centers of San Francisco,
Seattle and other environmentally-conscious markets.

One of my main messages to Nissan management during the advisory board visit to HQ in January was that they needed to access this huge market in order to grow their sales. (IOW, the US is not just CA.) There is already a giant group for which the range is sufficient for a round-trip commute without installing infrastructure. And this group will grow as the range of the vehicle grows.

Reliability will be the key to sustaining this growth. This may be an issue for Nissan in the hotter climates as more and more people have issues with battery capacity fade, but in the northern half of the US I think the reputation of the LEAF should be quite good. Time will tell.

I can't agree more. In my small tri-town, nearly all drivers can use the Leaf. However, the dealership has only one demo available, and only just recently allowed test drives off of the lot. Driving more than 50 mi RT to work is nearly impossible here. Mostly, it's about "distance anxiety" or not realizing that 20 min DOES not equate to 20 miles of driving. Most people think their 30-40 min commute to work MUST be 40 miles (because I drive 60 mph on the highway), but in reality it's only 20 mi. However, around here the one disadvantage is the lack of highway quick charging on the way to Seattle. The nearest useable charging station is 80 mi (Yakima Nissan dealership L2), all interstate, against the prevailing wind and uphill about 700 ft. I tell everyone to forget about it, use another ICE vehicle or get a plug-in hybrid instead.

 

[GRA]

The LA 'urban area' is more densely populated than the NYC or San Francisco urban areas. However, NYC itself (the five boroughs) and the City and County of San Francisco are both far more densely populated than the _city_ of Los Angeles. The population density of LA and its urban area is very even, with the urban area being just a little less than the city. NYC and San Francisco are very different, with the cities having very high densities and the urban areas much lower ones.

Sorry, but the stats don't support most of your position.

LA City: 7500 people per square mile (3.8 million people, 469 square miles)
New York City (all 5 boroughs): 27,000 people per square mile (8.3 million people, 302 square miles)
City and County of San Francisco: 17,200 people per square mile (825,000 people, 47 square miles)

Los Angeles County: 2400 people per square mile (9.8 million people, 4,000 square miles)
LA/OC/Ventura Counties: 944 people per square mile (6.6 million people, 7200 square miles)
Greater LA (5 counties): 532 people per square mile (18.1 million people, 34,000 square miles)
New York Metropolitan area: 2800 people per square mile (18.9 million, 6700 square miles)
San Francisco Peninsula (SF and San Mateo counties): 11,600 people per square mile (9.1 million, 787 square miles)
San Francisco Bay Area (9 counties): 1,023 people per square mile (7.15 million people, 6,985 square miles)

Actually the stats do, and I was surprised by it too. From "The High Cost of Free Parking", using the 2000 Census stats, with 'urbanized area' meaning pop. density of at least 1,000/sq. mile per contiguous census tract (def. used by census bureau). Numbers for Central city are Pop./Area (sq. m.)/Density (pers./sq. mile)

L.A. 3,694,820/469/7,873
NYC 8,008,278/303/26,430
S.F. 776,733/47/16,632

So, for the cities themselves, the ranking is 1st. NYC 2nd. SF 3rd. LA, as you'd expect. But for the urbanized areas as a whole (note, not the same as the metropolitan area), same measures:

L.A. 11,789,487/1,668/7,068
NYC 17,799,861/3,353/5,309
S.F. 2,995,769/ 428/7,004

So L.A. squeaks in just above S.F., with NYC falling well below. And here's the data for the urbanized areas not including the central cities:

L.A. 7,708,126/1,199/6,431
NYC 9,791,583/3,050/3,211
S.F. 2,219,036/ 381/5,824

Same order as above. Quoting from the book:

"Ironically, it is the _sprawl_ of the New York and San Francisco urbanized areas that reduce their population densities below that of Los Angeles. The Los Angeles urbanized area has a higher population density than New York or San Francisco because the urbanized area _outside_ the city of Los Angeles has a higher density (6,431 persons per square mile) than do the urbanized areas outside the cities of New York (3,211 persons per square mile) and San Francisco (5,824 persons per square mile).

"Angelenos are much more evenly spread throughout their urbanized area than are New Yorkers and San Franciscans. The suburban Los Angeles density is 82% of that in the central city, while the suburban New York density is only 12% of that in the central city, and the suburban San Francisco density is only 35% of that in the central city. The New York and San Francisco urbanized areas look like Hong Kong surrounded by Phoenix, while the Los Angeles urbanized area looks like Los Angeles surrounded by . . . well, Los Angeles."