NYT says EV not worth it. Leaf = Versa

[lpickup]

Now there I think I'll have to disagree. Whenever I see Moore's Law mentioned in the same breath as batteries, I feel it necessary to point out that Moore's Law is an outlier; the vast majority of technology development doesn't follow Moore's Law rates of improvement, and batteries never have.

True, if you read into my comment that I expected to see the doubling every two years with batteries, then I wasn't clear. That wasn't my intent. My only point is that I don't feel Li-ion (or rechargable batteries in general) have reached the "maturity" point where very little progress is being made. We are still very much in a downward price slope for batteries.

He gives few if any conclusions, mostly just leaves it up to you to reach your own. This is the most accessible source of info on the subject for the general public; Indeed, everything inside the book other than copyrighted photos is free and can be found on the book's website, so you don't even have to buy it.

http://www.withouthotair.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Thanks, I'll check it out.

I'm probably more sceptical than you. Certainly there've been far more Leafs and Volts made than EV1s, Rangers, RAV4s etc.

You definitely are more skeptical than me! But that's okay. BTW, I see your LEAF in the wild count has gone up! (although I don't know how you determine if you've seen 20 unique cars, or the same 5 4X each!)

 

[GRA]

Now there I think I'll have to disagree. Whenever I see Moore's Law mentioned in the same breath as batteries, I feel it necessary to point out that Moore's Law is an outlier; the vast majority of technology development doesn't follow Moore's Law rates of improvement, and batteries never have.

True, if you read into my comment that I expected to see the doubling every two years with batteries, then I wasn't clear. That wasn't my intent. My only point is that I don't feel Li-ion (or rechargable batteries in general) have reached the "maturity" point where very little progress is being made. We are still very much in a downward price slope for batteries.

And need to be. For the next few years, priority needs to be aimed at reducing cost more than increasing energy density, although both would be nice (cf. Envia claims). Tesla has demonstrated that it's possible to build BEVs with adequate range for the mainstream consumer with current technology, now we need to get it down to where average people can afford to buy them.

<snip agreement>

I'm probably more sceptical than you. Certainly there've been far more Leafs and Volts made than EV1s, Rangers, RAV4s etc.

You definitely are more skeptical than me! But that's okay. BTW, I see your LEAF in the wild count has gone up! (although I don't know how you determine if you've seen 20 unique cars, or the same 5 4X each!)

The first five were easy, as there was one of each color available :lol: As to the rest, some may be duplicates, although I try to notice license plates and drivers. The most recent bump for the Leaf was on Sunday, when I saw a silver one sans plates in the parking lot at a local library just as I was unlocking my bike. The owner and a friend came out and got in, and I chatted to them briefly. He'd had it less than a week, so I asked him if he was on the forum. He said he didn't know about it, so I told him the URL and some idea of what's available. I'll be interested to see if he shows up here.

 

[GRA]

Tesla said its first deliveries would be on July 2012http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/its-time-build-your-model-s, I wouldn't call them vaporware until the end of July has come and gone.
If I were Tesla I would be very careful to deliver only the highest quality product, since EVs are under a scrutiny no other car has been under before. If that means slipping the delivery date, be it.

It may be a simple case of semantics. To me, any product which is announced by a company remains vaporware until a retail customer can pay for it and take delivery of a production version. My definition excludes prototypes and pre-production units, whether under test or given/sold to company insiders and the like. Others may have a more restrictive definition of vaporware. So, while I expect Tesla to produce and sell some cars, until they do the S remains vaporware to me.

 

[Stoaty]

It may be a simple case of semantics. To me, any product which is announced by a company remains vaporware until a retail customer can pay for it and take delivery of a production version.

I would consider vaporware to be a product which is announced, but the date of availability keeps being pushed back to the point that one wonders if such a product will ever become available. So in my book several delays are needed before the product can be so classified. For instance, if Adobe announces Lightroom 4 will be available for purchase in a month, it is in no way vaporware (to me), because I know with reasonable certainty it will be released then or within a month of that date. I guess an additional component of the definition is whether the vendor has an established record of getting products out or conversely has no record on which to base judgments.

 

[Yodrak]

I think the Leaf-Versa comparison is a good one - similar size and style. What's not valid is attributing all of the price differential to the fact that the Leaf is an EV. A value also needs to be attributed to the additional features that the Leaf has but the Versa does not, similar to the kinds of adjustments that home appraisers make when setting a home value based on comparable homes. The Versa price should be adjusted upward assuming that some Versa buyers would pay for those features if they were available. Or, conversely, adjust the Leaf price downward for removing those features assuming that some Leaf buyers would not pay for those features if they didn't have to.

Problems I have with the article other than failure to adjust price for comparability of features other than gas v electric - actually, problems with statements by the TrueCar rep who is quoted in the article:
- " “The price of the vehicle, you only pay it once and then soon forget about it,” Mr. Toprak said. " No, most people take out a loan to buy or they lease. They make a payment and are reminded about what the car cost them every month. Not as often as they pay for gas for an ICE vehicle, but often enough that they do not forget about what the car's cost was. As the article's author goes on to say, "Mr. Moran, 34, knew his fuel savings would be overshadowed by his new monthly loan payment, ..."
- "According to TrueCar, a buyer who chose the Leaf instead of a Nissan Versa would need to drive it for almost nine years at today’s gas prices or six years at $5 a gallon before the fuel savings outweighed the nearly $10,000 difference in price." As I've said already, and others have also pointed out, a chunk of that difference in price is attributable to features that the car has other than its electric drive.

Remind me to not base my buying decisions based on information from TrueCar.

does the versa have:
...

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/05/business/energy-environment/for-hybrid-and-electric-cars-to-pay-off-owners-must-wait.html?_r=1&hp

more butt ugly from folks who dont get it.
versa and more.

 

[GRA]

Could someone list which features of the Leaf aren't available in this list, which is for a Versa 1.8 SL Hatchback with nav. package:

Exterior features:

16" x 5.5" machined finish alloy wheels
P195/55R16 all-season tires
Compact spare tire
Body color front/rear bumpers
Rear roof spoiler
Sport front/rear fascias
Black grille w/chrome accent
Multi-reflector halogen headlamps
Front fog lights
Body color folding remote-controlled pwr mirrors
Variable intermittent windshield wipers w/mist function
Intermittent rear wiper w/washer
Body color door handles

Entertainment features:
180-watt AM/FM stereo w/CD/MP3 player -inc: (6) speakers, aux input, iPod input, radio data system (RDS), speed-sensitive volume
Bluetooth hands-free phone system
Roof mounted antenna

To which I added the $700 nav. package:

Nissan Navigation System with 5" color touch-screen monitor
SiriusXM Satellite Radio and NavTraffic with 3-month trial subscription [1]
USB connection port for iPod® interface and other compatible devices


[1] Required SiriusXM Satellite Radio, NavTraffic and NavWeather Subscriptions sold separately. Installation costs, one-time activation fee, other fees and taxes will apply. NavTraffic available in select markets. SiriusXM Satellite Radio U.S. service and NavWeather service available only to those 18 or older in the 48 contiguous states and D.C. Fees and programming subject to change. Subscriptions governed by Customer Agreement available at siriusxm.com. ©2012 Sirius XM Radio Inc. Sirius, XM and all related marks and logos are trademarks of Sirius XM Radio Inc.

interior features

Reclining front bucket seats -inc: active head restraints, double-thickness foam in front seats
6-way manual driver seat -inc: height adjustment, center armrest
4-way manual passenger seat -inc: center armrest
60/40 split fold-down rear seat w/outboard adjustable headrests
Woven cloth seat trim
Soft-touch front center armrest
Rear center armrest w/cup holder & cover
Dual front & rear cup holders
Aluminum side kick plates
Tilt steering column
Leather-wrapped steering wheel -inc: steering wheel mounted audio/cruise/Bluetooth controls
Silver accent IP trim finisher -inc: silver shifter finisher
Tachometer
Fasten seat belt warning light/chime
Speed sensitive pwr door locks
Pwr windows
Cruise control
Intelligent Key keyless entry & ignition system
Remote fuel lid release
Immobilizer system
Vehicle security system
Pwr rear liftgate release
Air conditioning w/in-cabin microfilter
Rear window defroster w/timer
12V pwr outlet
Silver finish interior door handles
Driver & front passenger map pockets
Rear passenger map pockets
(2) front map lights
Auto-dimming rearview mirror
Dual illuminated visor vanity mirrors w/covers
Front & rear passenger folding assist grips
Carpeted floor & cargo area
Cargo area lamp
Tonneau cover

MSRP (incl. Dest. Charge), $19,970. About the only things I see missing from the Leaf SL are heated seats and steering wheel and the backup camera. All but the heated steering wheel are available aftermarket (for a lot less than Nissan would charge), and the seats and steering wheel are a lot less important for an ICE with a heater that doesn't decrease range.

I think the Leaf-Versa comparison is a good one - similar size and style. What's not valid is attributing all of the price differential to the fact that the Leaf is an EV. A value also needs to be attributed to the additional features that the Leaf has but the Versa does not, similar to the kinds of adjustments that home appraisers make when setting a home value based on comparable homes. The Versa price should be adjusted upward assuming that some Versa buyers would pay for those features if they were available. Or, conversely, adjust the Leaf price downward for removing those features assuming that some Leaf buyers would not pay for those features if they didn't have to.

Problems I have with the article other than failure to adjust price for comparability of features other than gas v electric - actually, problems with statements by the TrueCar rep who is quoted in the article:
- " “The price of the vehicle, you only pay it once and then soon forget about it,” Mr. Toprak said. " No, most people take out a loan to buy or they lease. They make a payment and are reminded about what the car cost them every month. Not as often as they pay for gas for an ICE vehicle, but often enough that they do not forget about what the car's cost was. As the article's author goes on to say, "Mr. Moran, 34, knew his fuel savings would be overshadowed by his new monthly loan payment, ..."
- "According to TrueCar, a buyer who chose the Leaf instead of a Nissan Versa would need to drive it for almost nine years at today’s gas prices or six years at $5 a gallon before the fuel savings outweighed the nearly $10,000 difference in price." As I've said already, and others have also pointed out, a chunk of that difference in price is attributable to features that the car has other than its electric drive.

Remind me to not base my buying decisions based on information from TrueCar.

does the versa have:
...

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/05/business/energy-environment/for-hybrid-and-electric-cars-to-pay-off-owners-must-wait.html?_r=1&hp

more butt ugly from folks who dont get it.
versa and more.

 

[Herm]

Could someone list which features of the Leaf aren't available in this list, which is for a Versa 1.8 SL Hatchback with nav. package:

The first one that comes to mind is a 24kWh battery pack

 

[lpickup]

Could someone list which features of the Leaf aren't available in this list, which is for a Versa 1.8 SL Hatchback with nav. package:

You got heated seats & steering wheel. The assumption I make for these items is $280/seat aftermarket. I know you can probably get them cheaper, but then they'd be cheap! There's something to be said for seats that look and feel fairly normal. The LEAF has 4 (or at least 3.5), so that's $1020 total.
Heated steering wheels appear to be cheap. So $28 for one of those is what I assume. I still think there would be an annoying cord hanging there somewhere though, but oh well.
Backup camera: $50 cheap aftermarket solution (I didn't really see any expensive ones). This would add another screen to the car though.

In addition:
2-way remote "start": $529 is a figure I use based on other manufacturers' option price, not aftermarket.
Auto-dimming mirror w/ Homelink: $200 (aftermarket--I've seen a $170 model and $270 model that appear similar to the LEAF's). But, you did list auto-dimming mirror. I suspect that it has Homelink built in. But if not, then you could probably assign a value of about $50 for the Homelink piece?
3-year roadside assistance: $699 is the price other manufacturers usually charge for this.

So it's a pretty good comparison feature-wise. I'd add around $2376 for those features I mentioned, which puts it in the low-end, but in the ballpark of other cars I've created comparisons to.

Oh, is that for automatic or standard? I would compare to an automatic transmission configuration.

We could probably argue whether my choice of using "option pricing" for some of those features is valid vs. just assuming using the cheapeast aftermarket prices you can find. The way I feel about it is this: if you have to go out and buy a whole bunch of crap, install it in your car, and the car starts to look like Frankenstein because you have wires and screens all over the place, then it probably was not a great starting point in the first place. So I have no problem assuming option pricing if that's what it takes to get to a fair comparison.

 

[GRA]

Could someone list which features of the Leaf aren't available in this list, which is for a Versa 1.8 SL Hatchback with nav. package:

You got heated seats & steering wheel. The assumption I make for these items is $280/seat aftermarket. I know you can probably get them cheaper, but then they'd be cheap! There's something to be said for seats that look and feel fairly normal. The LEAF has 4 (or at least 3.5), so that's $1020 total.
Heated steering wheels appear to be cheap. So $28 for one of those is what I assume. I still think there would be an annoying cord hanging there somewhere though, but oh well.
Backup camera: $50 cheap aftermarket solution (I didn't really see any expensive ones). This would add another screen to the car though.

In addition:
2-way remote "start": $529 is a figure I use based on other manufacturers' option price, not aftermarket.
Auto-dimming mirror w/ Homelink: $200 (aftermarket--I've seen a $170 model and $270 model that appear similar to the LEAF's). But, you did list auto-dimming mirror. I suspect that it has Homelink built in. But if not, then you could probably assign a value of about $50 for the Homelink piece?
3-year roadside assistance: $699 is the price other manufacturers usually charge for this.

So it's a pretty good comparison feature-wise. I'd add around $2376 for those features I mentioned, which puts it in the low-end, but in the ballpark of other cars I've created comparisons to.

Oh, is that for automatic or standard? I would compare to an automatic transmission configuration.

We could probably argue whether my choice of using "option pricing" for some of those features is valid vs. just assuming using the cheapeast aftermarket prices you can find. The way I feel about it is this: if you have to go out and buy a whole bunch of crap, install it in your car, and the car starts to look like Frankenstein because you have wires and screens all over the place, then it probably was not a great starting point in the first place. So I have no problem assuming option pricing if that's what it takes to get to a fair comparison.

The car comes with a CVT. I didn't consider an aftermarket heated wheel because I thought doing a professional install (no dangling, dangerous cords) would be too expensive. Remote start? Well, I consider such 'features' affectations of the Leisure class, i.e. their main 'value' is image, but I guess some people can't do without it. Since I drive a stick and like it, I realize that I'm an outlier.

Off-topic, the current generation of teens considers having an internet connection more important than a car, which absolutely terrifies the auto companies and is driving the addition of ever more distracting infotainment systems in cars. Since this trend is unlikely to stop short of legislation prohibiting it, self-driving cars can't come too soon. Of course, once we have them there will be far less reason to own a car; after all, a private car sits idle 95% of the time, so if everyone could call a car-sharing service and have a car deliver itself to you within a few minutes, the need for personal autos drops precipitously.

 

[lpickup]

Remote start? Well, I consider such 'features' affectations of the Leisure class, i.e. their main 'value' is image, but I guess some people can't do without it. Since I drive a stick and like it, I realize that I'm an outlier.

2-way remote start is the closest replacement for the Carwings pre-heat/pre-cool I can think of. You may not use it, but the LEAF has it, so you need to include it. Same with the stick. I like a stick myself. But a lot of people don't even know how to drive one, much less want to drive one. They could drive a LEAF, but not a manual transmission Versa.

 

[EvansvilleLeaf]

Could someone list which features of the Leaf aren't available in this list, which is for a Versa 1.8 SL Hatchback with nav. package:

Now price up an extra 80ft/lbs of torque

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

ok say you can get a Versa for $20K plus tax $1760 or $21,760

it costs about $1950-2100 for gas a year http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/bymodel/2012_Nissan_Versa.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

which would be 9750-10,500 after 5 years or up to 32,260...ok

or get a Leaf. $36,000 minus $7500 is $28,500 (no sales tax in WA)

EPA rating is for 15,000 miles a year say we average 2.5 to 3.5 cents per mile (nearly all of us fall in that range with a small handful of exceptions solar or Ridiculous) so that is 375-525 a year or 1875 to 2625 after 5 years

i will forgo the math here. once again, we ignore the priceless value of driving electric, no going to gas stations, not being subjected to wild swings in prices, etc.

it has been said many times, the NYT writer is "right" in his own way. he is typical of an American when considering money.

there was a Nova program on Money. two questions asked, seemingly the same but greatly different answers

"if you could get $100 a year from today or take $110 a year and a day from now, which would you choose?"

everyone took the $110 a year and a day from now

but the second question; "what do you want? $100 today, or $110 tomorrow?"

over 98% took the $100 today

the reason people do this is because of their need for instant gratification. if forced to plan long term, they nearly always make the right financial decision. but in spur of the moment decisions when "right now" is an option, they almost always fail to make the right decision. the quirk in the Human genome is the reason why credit card companies, used car lots, fast food restaurants and dollar stores are flourishing.

so the NYT writer is not "wrong", "crazy" or "out of touch". he is actually very nornal. but he is also typical of the reason why our country got into so much financial trouble.

 

[GRA]

Remote start? Well, I consider such 'features' affectations of the Leisure class, i.e. their main 'value' is image, but I guess some people can't do without it. Since I drive a stick and like it, I realize that I'm an outlier.

2-way remote start is the closest replacement for the Carwings pre-heat/pre-cool I can think of. You may not use it, but the LEAF has it, so you need to include it. Same with the stick. I like a stick myself. But a lot of people don't even know how to drive one, much less want to drive one. They could drive a LEAF, but not a manual transmission Versa.

I quite agree, but again it's a question of need; a BEV needs remote pre-heat/pre-cool and heated seats or the range falls precipitously. My Forester has heated front seats, and while they're nice to have on cold days in the mountains for the 5 minutes it takes the engine to warm up they aren't essential, and I turn them off once the heater is producing warm air. I was far more interested in the heated outside mirrors that came with them, as that's a safety item (also the base of the windshield is heated, so the wipers don't have to be parked off the glass, a minor convenience like the seats).

 

[GRA]

Could someone list which features of the Leaf aren't available in this list, which is for a Versa 1.8 SL Hatchback with nav. package:

Now price up an extra 80ft/lbs of torque

An extra 80 ft. lbs of torque for a Versa would cost a hell of a lot less than an extra 300+ miles of range for a BEV (Versa 1.8SL HB 28/34 mpg x 13.2 gal tank). Which does a mainstream consumer consider more valuable?

 

[GRA]

ok say you can get a Versa for $20K plus tax $1760 or $21,760

it costs about $1950-2100 for gas a year http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/bymodel/2012_Nissan_Versa.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

which would be 9750-10,500 after 5 years or up to 32,260...ok

or get a Leaf. $36,000 minus $7500 is $28,500 (no sales tax in WA)

EPA rating is for 15,000 miles a year say we average 2.5 to 3.5 cents per mile (nearly all of us fall in that range with a small handful of exceptions solar or Ridiculous) so that is 375-525 a year or 1875 to 2625 after 5 years

i will forgo the math here. once again, we ignore the priceless value of driving electric, no going to gas stations, not being subjected to wild swings in prices, etc.

it has been said many times, the NYT writer is "right" in his own way. he is typical of an American when considering money.

there was a Nova program on Money. two questions asked, seemingly the same but greatly different answers

"if you could get $100 a year from today or take $110 a year and a day from now, which would you choose?"

everyone took the $110 a year and a day from now

but the second question; "what do you want? $100 today, or $110 tomorrow?"

over 98% took the $100 today

the reason people do this is because of their need for instant gratification. if forced to plan long term, they nearly always make the right financial decision. but in spur of the moment decisions when "right now" is an option, they almost always fail to make the right decision. the quirk in the Human genome is the reason why credit card companies, used car lots, fast food restaurants and dollar stores are flourishing.

so the NYT writer is not "wrong", "crazy" or "out of touch". he is actually very normal. but he is also typical of the reason why our country got into so much financial trouble.

While I agree with you in general, the statement I've bolded is an example of your personal values (and that of EV owners): "we ignore the priceless value of driving electric, no going to gas stations, not being subjected to wild swings in prices, etc." These things are not 'priceless', they all have a price, whether in dollars, convenience, or what have you. EV owners just value certain features more highly than the mainstream. Neither are right or wrong in absolute terms.

 

[EvansvilleLeaf]

Could someone list which features of the Leaf aren't available in this list, which is for a Versa 1.8 SL Hatchback with nav. package:

Now price up an extra 80ft/lbs of torque

An extra 80 ft. lbs of torque for a Versa would cost a hell of a lot less than an extra 300+ miles of range for a BEV (Versa 1.8SL HB 28/34 mpg x 13.2 gal tank). Which does a mainstream consumer consider more valuable?

Unless he is either a) someone who has access to only one car and must make long trips at frequent and unpredictable intervals or b) a fricking idiot, then it is the attribute that is used every single time he presses the accelerator, that makes his car smoother, more responsive and more enjoyable to drive, rather than the one that makes absolutely no difference to his life beyond plugging in every couple of days rather than gassing up every week or so. We all know that the vast majority of consumers take few trips that the Leaf cannot handle, and do so predictably. We all know that more drivers are in multi-car households than single car households. Sure it's easy to find a povery-level travelling sales rep in Wyoming who lives alone but has kids living with his ex-wife 65 miles away and preen that an EV won't work for him, but nobody's saying it has to There are enough multi-car families and drivers with few needs for long haul trips to keep EV capacity tapped out for decades.

What you're trying to do is make value related only to accessory features, rather than driving comfort and enjoyment. By that metric, you could compare a loaded Versa on an equal basis to an M3 too.

 

[lpickup]

Now see THIS guy gets it: [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfH2ul1bSC0[/youtube]

The true comparison to the LEAF is....a Rolls Royce! (see 2:20) :lol:

 

[Yodrak]

I agree, because the price comparison should be on a comparable basis - what you're going to pay a dealer for the car.

I have no problem assuming option pricing if that's what it takes to get to a fair comparison.

 

[thankyouOB]

Unless he is either a) someone who has access to only one car and must make long trips at frequent and unpredictable intervals or b) a fricking idiot, then it is the attribute that is used every single time he presses the accelerator, that makes his car smoother, more responsive and more enjoyable to drive, rather than the one that makes absolutely no difference to his life beyond plugging in every couple of days rather than gassing up every week or so. We all know that the vast majority of consumers take few trips that the Leaf cannot handle, and do so predictably. We all know that more drivers are in multi-car households than single car households. Sure it's easy to find a povery-level travelling sales rep in Wyoming who lives alone but has kids living with his ex-wife 65 miles away and preen that an EV won't work for him, but nobody's saying it has to There are enough multi-car families and drivers with few needs for long haul trips to keep EV capacity tapped out for decades.

What you're trying to do is make value related only to accessory features, rather than driving comfort and enjoyment. By that metric, you could compare a loaded Versa on an equal basis to an M3 too.

Good point. Bravo!
I wouldnt worry about this too much, Evansville, as GRA just likes to be argumentative.

I was just relishing yesterday exactly what you pointed out, as I unplugged the Leaf and headed to work.
I never have to go to a gas station. I never have to stop and do that when I am in a hurry. A little planning about charging and I am always ready to go.

Of course, I have an ICE in reserve. But, I think of the Leaf in terms of the two-car family.
Dare I mention that with the solar on the roof, we powered the house and the car for Feb. and March, for 79 cents outapocket!

yes, we put in 10k for the solar and 20k for the car, but we are 4 years into the solar and a year into the car.

 

[thankyouOB]

Honestly, i am not sure why GRA even posts here.
He told us he doesnt have a Leaf.

Is that the definition of a troll, or what?