evnow
Well-known member
What do you think about the new about $100 a month battery replacement offer ?
My guess is that in 6-7 years when the price has come down Nissan will sell you a replacement pack (I may need to buy one too, eventually, but probably not for about 10 years).klapauzius said:I was hoping to own and use this car for a very long time, i.e. +15 years, which means I was expecting to buy one replacement battery. Now it seems we have to put our hopes on an aftermarket solution.
klapauzius said:At 12,000 miles per year and expecting a long time for my battery to degrade to 70% (maybe 8 years),
this rental deal as the only replacement option would be very bad for me. Paying essentially $9600 for a capacity upgrade from 70% to 100% destroys any economic sense the Leaf will make.
I was hoping to own and use this car for a very long time, i.e. +15 years, which means I was expecting to buy one replacement battery. Now it seems we have to put our hopes on an aftermarket solution.
LTLFTcomposite said:Since I'm leasing I don't have a dog in this fight, but was toying with the idea of buying it out at the end of the lease depending on the outcome of this, and this news has pretty much wiped out any chance of that. The Leaf has been an interesting experience but it cost me dearly because I was an early adopter. Frankly an inexpensive gas car like a mazda 3 is starting to look pretty appealing, and let others carry the EV banner.
DaveinOlyWA said:LTLFTcomposite said:Since I'm leasing I don't have a dog in this fight, but was toying with the idea of buying it out at the end of the lease depending on the outcome of this, and this news has pretty much wiped out any chance of that. The Leaf has been an interesting experience but it cost me dearly because I was an early adopter. Frankly an inexpensive gas car like a mazda 3 is starting to look pretty appealing, and let others carry the EV banner.
wow, i cannot believe you are serious about what you said. the true cost of burning gasoline is so much more than the cost of any battery. i have no idea how old you are but the changing evironment and the debate on its causes i have followed for decades and its beginning to become obvious that the "facts" we have now have been well known in the scientific community for years and that all the climate change debunkers were pretty much bought off by Big Oil.
RonDawg said:And even if you believe that climate change is a myth, you can't deny that our thirst for oil has side effects on our foreign policy, and how we have to stay friendly to Saudi Arabia (a country not particularly well known for its human rights record) and tolerate the rantings of the late Hugo Chavez and to a lesser extent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. By driving my EV, I know I am contributing far less to that than I once did.
TomT said:The problem with that whole argument is that it is overly simplistic and petroleum is used for SO many other things than gasoline that, even if every gas car disappeared today, we would still be heavily dependent on it, even just to manufacture the EV gas vehicle replacements and components...
RonDawg said:And even if you believe that climate change is a myth, you can't deny that our thirst for oil has side effects on our foreign policy, and how we have to stay friendly to Saudi Arabia (a country not particularly well known for its human rights record) and tolerate the rantings of the late Hugo Chavez and to a lesser extent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. By driving my EV, I know I am contributing far less to that than I once did.
DaveinOlyWA said:klapauzius said:At 12,000 miles per year and expecting a long time for my battery to degrade to 70% (maybe 8 years),
this rental deal as the only replacement option would be very bad for me. Paying essentially $9600 for a capacity upgrade from 70% to 100% destroys any economic sense the Leaf will make.
I was hoping to own and use this car for a very long time, i.e. +15 years, which means I was expecting to buy one replacement battery. Now it seems we have to put our hopes on an aftermarket solution.
then wait 8 years THEN sign up for the lease program!
klapauzius said:DaveinOlyWA said:klapauzius said:At 12,000 miles per year and expecting a long time for my battery to degrade to 70% (maybe 8 years),
this rental deal as the only replacement option would be very bad for me. Paying essentially $9600 for a capacity upgrade from 70% to 100% destroys any economic sense the Leaf will make.
I was hoping to own and use this car for a very long time, i.e. +15 years, which means I was expecting to buy one replacement battery. Now it seems we have to put our hopes on an aftermarket solution.
then wait 8 years THEN sign up for the lease program!
OK, do the math:
After 8 years (so in 2019) I expect the capacity of my original battery to fall below the usability threshold for me and I will need a fresh pack.
So then I rent for $100 a month for the next 8 years or $9600 AND I loose my 70% capacity battery in the process which has considerable value (and for which I paid, BTW)...So essentially I am forced to "rent" my own 8 year old car now at a ridiculous monthly cost.
And I cannot sell it, because nobody would buy an EV with limited range (there will be better batteries by then for NEW EVs) and this monthly cost to operate.
This effectively means, that I have to pay the equivalent of $18k ($9600 for the rent for 8 years + 24*$500 * .7 assuming 2011 $/kWH prices for my 70% battery) for my $35k car after 8 years to keep it going for another 8 years.
Sorry, this program makes no sense whatsoever for people like me who are likely not going to burn through the battery in 2-3 years.
p.s:
Trashing cars after 8 years of use is also NOT very friendly to the environment.
DaveinOlyWA said:ok, I am with you BUT we need to do some more math! you contend that the OEM battery is being given up without compensation but also contend that the lease battery will cost you SIGNIFICANTLY less than the original cost of the OEM battery right?
ok, since we can only speculate on how much the lease program will cost in 8 years we can only do the same with the value of a new battery pack as well which means we can both take this "math" anyway we want so lets not. we assume everything stays the same for 8 years.
so we rectified the notion that we gave away our OEM battery and got nothing in return correct? now if we look at degradation of value in a used item, the first thing we notice is it is not linear. the value drops MUCH faster at first meaning a battery needed for transportation does not become valueless when its capacity wont move the car. It becomes valueless when it no longer fills the need for which it was intended. But it also makes no sense to wait until that point to take action so we can probably say a 70% capacity battery might be worth 50% of its new value.
so if buying a battery today, we might pay more than $17,000 which is what a Focus EV driver would pay today for a smaller pack. but the degraded battery is worth half that so we pay$8500. are you ok with that?? guessing you are not even ok with HALF that and you would not be alone.
but the current state of technology gives Nissan no choice. The volumes have not risen enough, the technology has not progressed enough so a lease is essentially buying Nissan more time to get a reasonable solution. nothing more, nothing less and I know you might find this hard to swallow but they did this on the hope of selling several more LEAFs (or some sort of EV) in the future.
burning a customer on an outrageous battery purchase right now would probably make your future loyalty a tought thing to maintain
The difference is in the $7,500 tax credit. Without that, $117 would have been $117+7500/24 = $430 (+ interest on that 7500).KJD said:If you can lease (rent) the entire car for 117 a month why is renting just the battery pack for 100 per month a good deal ?
Yes, that's exactly the problem here, along with the implied battery wear and tear, plus the cost associated with replacing it.evnow said:This is also the reason why it is better to just keep leasing for 2 year terms until the $7500 credit expires. People who want to buy the car and keep it for a long time are working against the tax credit incentives.
I disagree with this notion. I don't think it's fair to use the price another OEM has duly disclosed to justify Nissan's outline for their battery rental program. This price is likely based on a small volume of packs built by a subcontractor. Nissan is building its own batteries from the ground up. The largest value-add is reportedly manufacturing of cells. Nissan's cost structure is much different, but because it's all in-sourced they can play all kinds of accounting magic.DaveinOlyWA said:so if buying a battery today, we might pay more than $17,000 which is what a Focus EV driver would pay today for a smaller pack. but the degraded battery is worth half that so we pay $8500. Are you ok with that?? guessing you are not even ok with HALF that and you would not be alone.
surfingslovak said:Yes, that's exactly the problem here, along with the implied battery wear and tear, plus the cost associated with replacing it.evnow said:This is also the reason why it is better to just keep leasing for 2 year terms until the $7500 credit expires. People who want to buy the car and keep it for a long time are working against the tax credit incentives.
I disagree with this notion. I don't think it's fair to use the price another OEM has duly disclosed to justify Nissan's outline for their battery rental program. This price is likely based on a small volume of packs built by a subcontractor. Nissan is building its own batteries from the ground up. The largest value-add is reportedly manufacturing of cells. Nissan's cost structure is much different, but because it's all in-sourced they can play all kinds of accounting magic.DaveinOlyWA said:so if buying a battery today, we might pay more than $17,000 which is what a Focus EV driver would pay today for a smaller pack. but the degraded battery is worth half that so we pay $8500. Are you ok with that?? guessing you are not even ok with HALF that and you would not be alone.
If they were buying the entire pack from someone else or were purchasing cells from an OEM like Tesla does with Panasonic, the implied cost would be a lot clearer. You cannot amortize a billion dollar battery plant on 50,000 packs. Perhaps it's this math and the associated cost structure, which they don't like to reveal. That might be a fair consideration, as long as the company stays within regulatory requirements for parts availability.
That said, I believe that there might be another way of approaching the problem without antagonizing existing owners.