SEATTLE AREA; 100,000 Mile Celebration

[TaylorSFGuy]

A very nice event - banners and balloons. Washington Governor Inslee, Transportation Secty Lynn Peterson (a LEAF owner) Erik and Brian from Nissan, Bill Taylor (my employer) all gave a nice presentation. I was overwhelmed by the turnout - some endured a multiple hour backup to return home due to a fatality accident on I-5.

Here are some related stories - they cover it:

http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/News/2013/12/WAcelebrates100000AllElectricMiles.html
http://www.thurstontalk.com/2013/12/16/steve-marsh-drives-electric-car-100000-miles/

Thanks to those that came down, including DaveinOlyWA, FairwoodRed and the others that I don't know their MNL handles.
Steve

 

[braebyrn]

That's great to be honored and lots of seat time in the car per day. Wow.

I see you were plugged in by the looks of the picture. How did you get it so clean on this misty day?

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

Congratulations!

What's your estimate of how far you will go? 200k?

500k with new battery pack?

 

[Drivesolo]

Congrats Steve! Looking forward to hearing about your next 100k miles!

What are your plans w/ you Leaf? How much longer do you foresee yourself using it for your commute?

 

[o00scorpion00o]

The linked articles left out the 20% capacity reduction !

I don't think that would go down too well with the general public.

Is a 60 or less mile car of much use ?

 

[FairwoodRed]

It was a good recognition celebration event!

He managed to arrive with EXACTLY 100,000 on the odometer. His dog was a hit with the crowd.

And I met Brian Brockman – he does exist and he’s still alive!

The governor was so good at public speaking that he didn’t need the PA system. One bit of news of interest to Washington residents is that this week he will submit his supplemental budget containing funding to electrify an East/West route (I90/US2?). At least we are getting something back for our $100 registration EV fee.

 

[abasile]

The linked articles left out the 20% capacity reduction !

I don't think that would go down too well with the general public.

Is a 60 or less mile car of much use ?

20% loss after 100K miles really doesn't seem that bad! If every LEAF could do that well, that would be great. That said, TaylorSFGuy could use a bit more range. A larger battery would have helped.

 

[braebyrn]

One bit of news of interest to Washington residents is that this week he will submit his supplemental budget containing funding to electrify an East/West route (I90/US2?). At least we are getting something back for our $100 registration EV fee.

Thats great news. I have two boys going to college on the East Side. Not a quick trip for the one in Pullman :|

 

[o00scorpion00o]

The linked articles left out the 20% capacity reduction !

I don't think that would go down too well with the general public.

Is a 60 or less mile car of much use ?

20% loss after 100K miles really doesn't seem that bad! If every LEAF could do that well, that would be great. That said, TaylorSFGuy could use a bit more range. A larger battery would have helped.

Well it's good news for people who can buy the leaf new, but for 2nd hand buyers that is a major turn off. However, that being said if it has 60 miles left per charge that will still suffice for a lot of commutes, however in really cold weather one might not be able to make it.

Road trips are out, I'm just looking at it from a potential buyers point of view and not from a faithful owners.

Nissan May be delighted as from a technological point of view it is a great success but car manufacturers need to start thinking about customers, Nissan do not want to give people the idea that electric cars are disposable, and worthless after 100,000 miles. This would be 5 years driving for me and I usually buy cars that are around 3 years old. Usually with more than 30k miles, this would mean I get 3-3.5 years to 80% but I still need to adjust to suit even a new 75 mile range. Never mind 60 miles. I'd basically have a worthless car after that because Nissan would tell me my battery is worn and I can't install a new one.

Who knows, fast charging what is now essentially a smaller battery may accelerate further degradation and all Nissan will tell you is that you got to pay to bring capacity back to just 70% ! This isn't good enough.

 

[Reddy]

Interesting term, worthless. Is it worth zero, or worth less than the original $35K selling price when new? So what is the value of a 2011 Leaf with 100 Kmi and less than 60 mi range? $15K? $10K? I would have bought one back in 2011 if it were that price since I only need about 20 mi of range. Since the car still would be the lowest cost per mile to drive (other than my bicycle), it would have more "future value" than any other car. Fast forward to 2013 and it's getting harder to predict the future value of an EV since the price of gas has dropped $0.50-$0.75 per gallon in the past year and the price of new EVs have dropped $5-6K. What will 2014 bring? A 200 mi Leaf for $25K? (I'd take one, but I doubt it's possible yet). In any case, Steve has proven that my 2011 Leaf will last to at least 100 Kmi, and maybe even 150 Kmi for my in-town use. Given my 7500 mi/yr driving, will that mean still be zipping along in 2031 with a "worthless" old electric car? Maybe not, but I hope so cause I've never enjoyed replacing the muffler and tail pipe (three times already on my ICE), oil changes, or trips to the gas station.

 

[o00scorpion00o]

Interesting term, worthless. Is it worth zero, or worth less than the original $35K selling price when new? So what is the value of a 2011 Leaf with 100 Kmi and less than 60 mi range? $15K? $10K? I would have bought one back in 2011 if it were that price since I only need about 20 mi of range. Since the car still would be the lowest cost per mile to drive (other than my bicycle), it would have more "future value" than any other car. Fast forward to 2013 and it's getting harder to predict the future value of an EV since the price of gas has dropped $0.50-$0.75 per gallon in the past year and the price of new EVs have dropped $5-6K. What will 2014 bring? A 200 mi Leaf for $25K? (I'd take one, but I doubt it's possible yet). In any case, Steve has proven that my 2011 Leaf will last to at least 100 Kmi, and maybe even 150 Kmi for my in-town use. Given my 7500 mi/yr driving, will that mean still be zipping along in 2031 with a "worthless" old electric car? Maybe not, but I hope so cause I've never enjoyed replacing the muffler and tail pipe (three times already on my ICE), oil changes, or trips to the gas station.

Well the whole attraction is for electric cars to be cheaper to run and cheaper to maintain, obviously at the massive cost of fuel here electric makes a lot of sense, but if it costs as much to run a ev with battery maintenance as an ice including fuel and maintenance then their advantage fades quickly. Nobody will buy them as there will be no benefit and the range is already an issue, a 75 mile range car is a very hard sell. I personally don't know anybody that would tolerate a 20% loss after 100,000 miles unless they buy new and sell after 3 years. But the 2nd hand owner could be landed with huge battery repair bills .

Sure as batteries get larger and more advanced this won't be an issue as Tesla claim their prototype model s has over 300,000 on the battery and it's still going strong.

Don't get me wrong, I really like the leaf and it could do a lot of my driving but I think 80% capacity must be the limit at which batteries are replaced. 75 miles on a new battery 60 in cold becomes 48 miles, this can't work for a hell of a lot of people.

At the end of the day the Leaf is a good first attempt at a mass produced ev but Nissan need to get real and realise that what's good from a technological point of view in the world of batteries is not good in the lives of real people. They need to get MK II on the road quickly. At the very least they should offer a battery exchange program. Bad reputation spreads fast and if they can't get it right now it's going to be even harder to convince people to go electric.

It would be interesting to know the longevity of the Imev batteries, I know this is a leaf thread but can anyone shed some light on it ?

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

When debating the worth of the car, meep in mind that he saved over $9000 in fuel costs alone. Also had under $100 in additional repairs costs which was "way less" than eith e r of his previous 2 cars he wore out

 

[klapauzius]

Also, if he could just pop in a fresh battery, the car would almost be as good as new (as far as motor and drive train go....).

 

[o00scorpion00o]

When debating the worth of the car, meep in mind that he saved over $9000 in fuel costs alone. Also had under $100 in additional repairs costs which was "way less" than eith e r of his previous 2 cars he wore out

Yes and this is the attraction to electrics, but if that saved cash has to be spent on battery repairs it defeats the purpose and it makes the case for electrics a lot harder. Especially if you can't even install a new battery and get a discount on the old battery.

The costs saved here over 100,000 miles based on a 45 (imp) mpg car or 37.5 U.S mpg would be 21,614 USD !

Add another 2,000 or so saving over annual motor tax ( that's another tax just to drive yearly )

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

To hit 100k in the time he's had it means roughly 110 miles/day avg., almost 40k/yr!

Steve? You drive a LOT! (for a LEAFer)

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

When debating the worth of the car, meep in mind that he saved over $9000 in fuel costs alone. Also had under $100 in additional repairs costs which was "way less" than eith e r of his previous 2 cars he wore out

Yes and this is the attraction to electrics, but if that saved cash has to be spent on battery repairs it defeats the purpose and it makes the case for electrics a lot harder. Especially if you can't even install a new battery and get a discount on the old battery.

The costs saved here over 100,000 miles based on a 45 (imp) mpg car or 37.5 U.S mpg would be 21,614 USD !

Add another 2,000 or so saving over annual motor tax ( that's another tax just to drive yearly )

wow, is everyone blind to the basic facts of this story? how many of you have a 130 mile commute? not many I am guessing. keep in mind; during Summer he can still make it without stopping. Winter its an issue but what if you commute is 50 miles? then how much will you save? will it be enough to buy another battery? bet it will with some change left over.

he also mentioned less than $100 in maintenance and repairs. how many oil changes would have been paid for? in my ex Prius, that would be 9 at $75 a pop (higher cost allows 10,000 mile intervals) so he does stop to charge but someone with a 50 mile commute wouldnt, so how much time would be saved in refueling? at 400 miles per fillup and 12 minutes per fill up we are talking FIFTY hours.... ya thats right. more than an entire work week just to get gas and btw; 12 mins is a pretty fast trip in and out of the station. if you dont believe me, try it. time it from the second you leave your route until you get back into your route.

now, you could cheat and stop at any old station but most of us in an effort to reduce that expense, dont do that. we have memberships, grocery store credits or specific station cards that gives us 10 cents per gallon off...


add it up. you think batteries are the only thing that matters?

 

[klapauzius]

add it up. you think batteries are the only thing that matters?

At the end of the day, yes.

If the car cannot be used to do the everyday commute anymore for which it was intended, it becomes useless.
The only thing that prevents that from happening will be a new battery.
Once it is in the car and paid for, you can start adding everything up and be happy about the savings.

 

[JeremyW]

will it be enough to buy another battery? bet it will with some change left over

Yeah, all we can do is "bet" because we still don't know a price for a replacement battery. :?

 

[TaylorSFGuy]

To hit 100k in the time he's had it means roughly 110 miles/day avg., almost 40k/yr!

Steve? You drive a LOT! (for a LEAFer)

Thanks - I guess. There are many, including my Wife and now my Son who carpools with me that say there has to be a better way.

 

[o00scorpion00o]

add it up. you think batteries are the only thing that matters?

At the end of the day, yes.

If the car cannot be used to do the everyday commute anymore for which it was intended, it becomes useless.
The only thing that prevents that from happening will be a new battery.
Once it is in the car and paid for, you can start adding everything up and be happy about the savings.

Exactly !

See Nissan would gladly accept a 100,000 miles as the life span of any car so people would buy more. But Nissan really need to know that damage that will be done to electric car reputation if they get it wrong at this stage.

The thing is Nissan never envisioned anyone driving the leaf to 100,000 miles in nearly 3 years never mind 8 years. They automatically assumed people that would drive the leaf are people who drive to the local shops or do school runs, drive 20 miles to work and back for which the leaf is ideal and for these trips the leaf in some climates could most likely last 10-15 years.

The other problem is we don't actually know what the battery condition will be like in 8-10 years because calender degradation along with cycling could mean it could be down at 70% after 8 years or less.

For me I would reach 100K miles after roughly 5 years, I'd save a lot on fuel, but how much would I save even if Nissan allowed me a new battery ? would it be worth it ? a new battery would only be acceptable not some repair job to 70% for which is completely useless so 80% should be deemed end of life. There will be value in spent batteries but what will they do with them ? can they do anything ? maybe they were hoping to have all those questions answered in 8-10 years ?

But definitely, Nissan need to offer a new battery but I don't think battery costs have dropped a lot since 2011 and Nissan were expecting people to start looking for new batteries or a "repaired" battery after 8-10 years not 3 but they will say that this is expected for the high mileage with the technology and so thanks for buying our Nissan here's a nice pat on the back and a handshake for being the first to reach 100k miles, by the way we're taking orders for 2014's if you're interested !