Swap Mustang for Leaf? Anxiety switching to EV

[brian123]

Thanks again for all the advice. I'll look into that book, I'm sure it is inspiring, but being carless will surely depend on lifestyle, distance to work, location, etc. Even if I end up with an EV, riding a bike when I can is surly something I should do just for health. Though, I can't always count on a manageable bike commute distance over the next 3 years.

I'm running some numbers for the next 36months with several routes. From leasing a LEAF, buying a LEAF, keeping the Mustang, or selling it for a cheap car.

I noticed buying a LEAF, they have 0% 72 months with $2500 cash. My income is also enough to get the full $7500 credit. Then there's the $2500 state rebate, plus a $3000 rebate in my area. That all adds up. Will I quality for that 0%, I'm not sure.

To run my loose calculations, how much below MSRP are people getting the LEAFs for in California? Such as from popular dealers on the forum or even using Costco's auto program.

I'll search the forums again to find some examples, but usually I find posts with monthly payment and not the numbers to get there.

 

[GRA]

Thanks again for all the advice. I'll look into that book, I'm sure it is inspiring, but being carless will surely depend on lifestyle, distance to work, location, etc. Even if I end up with an EV, riding a bike when I can is surly something I should do just for health. Though, I can't always count on a manageable bike commute distance over the next 3 years.

<snip rest>

Yes, everyone's situation is different and the book shows you what are the major issues, although at the moment you have the major prerequisite for going car-less or car-lite if you choose - you have multiple options for reliably getting to work without one. Doesn't mean you can or should do either, just means you're a potential candidate, and (I'd say) an excellent one for going at least car-lite, but only if you want to. The book may or may not be inspiring depending on the individual, but I think it's more valuable for its practical advice.

 

[pkulak]

For trips, I have a family in town with garages that I could swap cars with, so that's always a possibility. Anyone ever do that?

I do that all the time. Our family only has a Leaf, and we need to make 120-mile road trips every couple months. At first I rented a car, but then I realized that all my friends and family love driving the Leaf. They think it's a real kick, just because of the novelty. Not sure if that will wear off, of course, but for now I have no problem trading cars with anyone when I need a long range car. It sure beats keeping a gas car around and eating the depreciation and maintenance costs on it. If you need to leave for a week, that's an issue since you'll have to figure out some way for your friend to charge, but if it's just an overnight or day trip, handing it over with 100% SOC is usually just fine.

 

[brian123]

While my initial goal was to get a lower payment to put savings directly towards debt, I wanted to see what was the best decision over a 3 year period. Comparing if I kept the Mustang for the remainder of the loan, or get rid of it now for a lease or buy new/used. So I calculate car payment, insurance and fuel/energy costs over 36 months on several options. I then compared those with the cost of the Mustang over 36 months and selling it at the end.

All things listed below are very optimistic deals. Maybe I calculated something wrong, it is late, but I'm finding buying a LEAF, then selling it after 36 months, might be the best overall path thanks to a possible cash incentive and zero interest, plus a local rebate. But again, I probably screwed this all up and over thinking things.

I also didn't calculate savings from say taking rebates and credits from buying a LEAF to pay off credit cards, avoiding interest fees, then set direct deposits to a savings account to build that money back up.

LEASE A LEAF
(SV with Quick Charge, Zero Down, 30-36k miles, 3 Years)

• Payment $300 (Rough guess with Tax)
• Insurance $110
• Energy Costs $20

Total monthly operating costs: $430
36 months later, costs: $15480

Deduct $2500 rebate and selling Mustang for $4000 at start
Total cost: $8980

BUY A LEAF
(SV with Quick Charge & Premium, 0% for 72 months with $2500 instant cash, $3500 for trade in, Optimistic $2500 off MSRP)

• Payment $410
• Insurance $110
• Energy Costs $20

Total monthly operating costs: $540
36 months later, costs: $19440

Deduct $2500 State, $7500 Fed, $3000 San Joaquin
Car value likely $17500, owe $14400, gain $3100 selling
Total cost: $6440 - 3100 from selling car = $3340

LEASE HONDA FIT EV
(One model, includes home charger, collision coverage, unlimited miles, roadside assistance, zero down except first month)

• Payment $275 (Rough guess with Tax)
• Insurance $60 (Lower since only liability)
• Energy Costs $20

Total monthly operating costs: $355
36 months later, costs: $12780

Deduct $2500 rebate and selling Mustang for $4,000 at start
Total cost: $6,280


BUY CHEAP $4K CAR
(Sell Mustang privately and use $4k from sale for a used car)

• Payment $0
• Insurance $70
• Average Gas Costs $100

Total monthly operating costs: $170
36 months later, costs: $6120
Repair and Maintenance over 36 months: $1800

Car Value: $2500 sell for cash
Total cost: $7,920 - $2,500 from selling car = $5,420

LEASE HONDA FIT ICE
(Zero Down, $0 first Payment, 35 months)

• Payment $190 + $10 tax
• Insurance $110
• Average Gas Costs $75

Total monthly operating costs: $385
36 months later, costs: $13670

Deduct selling Mustang for $4,000 at start, no rebates
Total cost: $9670


KEEP MUSTANG

• Payment $384
• Insurance $124
• Average Gas Costs $100

Total monthly operating costs: $607
36 months later, costs: $21852

Car Value: $14k, 5 payments left, sell for gain of $12,080
Total cost: $21,852 - 12,080 from selling car = $9,772


TRUE SAVINGS:
Difference after 36months and selling or returning all cars

MUSTANG TOTAL COST AFTER SELLING: $9,772

• LEASE LEAF: $8,980 ($792 savings)
• BUY LEAF: $3,340 ($6,432 savings)
• LEASE HONDA FIT EV: $6280 ($3,492 savings)
• CHEAP $4K CAR: $5,420 ($4,352 savings)
• LEASE HONDA FIT ICE: $9670 ($102 savings)

 

[Stanton]

I think your analysis is flawed because you shouldn't be buying/selling cars (especially a Leaf that has virtually no maintenance) every 3 years, ESPECIALLY if you're having cash flow problems (you'll never stop paying for a car).

 

[cgaydos]

A few comments on the calculations.

1) The Fit EV has a great lease price (and it includes insurance) but they are almost impossible to get due to very low supply. This is a compliance car that Honda leases just to get CARB credits, and they have made the lease terms extremely attractive after their initial lease pricing didn't get many takers. They aren't making it after this year.

2) Buying the LEAF and getting the tax credits and CA rebates is great, but you have to float the cash up front. In the case of the federal tax credit you won't get the full amount until you get your 2014 tax refund back next year, but you can get some of it earlier by reducing your tax withholding for this year.

 

[edatoakrun]

While my initial goal was to get a lower payment to put savings directly towards debt, I wanted to see what was the best decision over a 3 year period. Comparing if I kept the Mustang for the remainder of the loan, or get rid of it now for a lease or buy new/used...

You don't seem to be considering your best option, selling your present ICEV and buying a used LEAF.

This will almost surely be your lowest total cost of ownership option, and since you "...have a family in town with garages that I could swap cars with..." you should rarely have to pay to rent a car for the few instances where you need longer range than a LEAF provides.

I am very satisfied with my experience in buying a LEAF new, as the incentives on purchase have resulted in lower TCO than for any other new car (and probably, for any dependable low-miles used car, as well) but am looking forward to even lower ownership costs in the future, now that the high costs of new car depreciation are over.

 

[brian123]

I think your analysis is flawed because you shouldn't be buying/selling cars (especially a Leaf that has virtually no maintenance) every 3 years, ESPECIALLY if you're having cash flow problems (you'll never stop paying for a car).

Your are correct, buying with intent to sell every 3 years is definitely not the way to go (something I've already learned with this Mustang situation). If I'm someone that's constantly wanting a new vehicle every 3 years, then leasing would be more the reliable way to go.

In my 3 year comparison, I didn't mean I'd actually sell the cars. It was just a way to count their worth to offset costs in comparison with the leases that leave you with no car.

If I keep and payoff the Mustang, I'm probably not in any rush to sell it after paying it off beyond the desire for a more versatile vehicle, and I'd of had it for 6 years by then, not 3. If I bought the LEAF, my debt would probably be paid off within a year from normal payments, extra paychecks and some rebates. I'd then setup a savings account for what's left of the credit and rebates, continue to build the savings with direct deposits to hopefully have enough to buyout the car at 36 months. This means if I kept the cars, after 3 years I could own a 6 year old Mustang with no warranty and poor MPG, or I could possibly own a 3 year old LEAF with warranty, worth much more than the Mustang, plus ongoing fuel savings.

If I lease, that's the quickest way to free up money towards my credit cards, but after doing my comparisons, I may not save as much as I think long term.

You don't seem to be considering your best option, selling your present ICEV and buying a used LEAF.

This will almost surely be your lowest total cost of ownership option, and since you "...have a family in town with garages that I could swap cars with..." you should rarely have to pay to rent a car for the few instances where you need longer range than a LEAF provides.

I am very satisfied with my experience in buying a LEAF new, as the incentives on purchase have resulted in lower TCO than for any other new car (and probably, for any dependable low-miles used car, as well) but am looking forward to even lower ownership costs in the future, now that the high costs of new car depreciation are over.

I've though about used LEAFs, but after a quick look at the market, its difficult to see the savings compared to a new one after factoring in rebates for my area. Then I've also read about changes to the LEAF in recent models that have helped with battery life, and a used one will already be at lower capacity. I'm not sure what kind of loan I can get for used vehicle, but probably not interest free. I'll look into though to add to my comparison

A few comments on the calculations.

1) The Fit EV has a great lease price (and it includes insurance) but they are almost impossible to get due to very low supply. This is a compliance car that Honda leases just to get CARB credits, and they have made the lease terms extremely attractive after their initial lease pricing didn't get many takers. They aren't making it after this year.

2) Buying the LEAF and getting the tax credits and CA rebates is great, but you have to float the cash up front. In the case of the federal tax credit you won't get the full amount until you get your 2014 tax refund back next year, but you can get some of it earlier by reducing your tax withholding for this year.

I've contacted my Honda dealer by email, they told me they had just sold one and didn't expect to have another for 2-3 months. Though, the email said nothing about a waiting list, which I find hard to believe there isn't. I'm sure they wantme to come in and try to sell me something else once they show the wait list. I'd have to get my name on several dealer wait lists and hope most the people ahead of me back out and I get bumped up.

Yep, it's true I can change my withholdings and then put that exactly amount directly to my credit cards to see some up front reduction in debt while I wait for the remaining rebates/credits. I do make enough income that I don't worry about not fully benefiting from the credit. I'm not sure when the San Joaquin rebate is issued. Though, getting that 0% interest loan with cash incentive, I'm probably borderline on the credit score needed for it. If I can't get that, then buying a new LEAF might not work to well.

 

[edatoakrun]

...
I've though about used LEAFs, but after a quick look at the market, its difficult to see the savings compared to a new one after factoring in rebates for my area. Then I've also read about changes to the LEAF in recent models that have helped with battery life, and a used one will already be at lower capacity. I'm not sure what kind of loan I can get for used vehicle, but probably not interest free. I'll look into though to add to my comparison..

Sounds like you do qualify for (perhaps) the highest level incentives in the USA, so buying new might make sense for you.

No simple way to determine battery condition on a used LEAF, as neither the capacity bars or LBC reports can be relied on for accurate data, but remember the only range test (AFAIK) of a eight-capacity-bar LEAF still got almost 60 freeway miles, and could of course go much farther on a single charge at lower speeds, at the same temperatures.

http://electricvehiclewiki.com/Battery_Capacity_Loss" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

How often do you expect to need to drive further than that?

In terms of rebates, remember the state $2,500 will be delayed, and the SJV $3,000 may be slow to come, and is taxable as well, and both must be repaid in part if you sell your LEAF.

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=1686" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

As to loans, your first priority might be to lower the interest rates on your current debt.

Have you tried a credit site like:

https://www.creditkarma.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

To find lower rates on your existing debt?

If I were buying a used car today, the cheapest (short-term, of course) financing I could get would be by simply getting a credit card advance.

 

[dgpcolorado]

One comment on your "Buy a LEAF" scenario: the residual value of $17,500 at three years is wildly optimistic. Three year old LEAFs currently sell for much less than that and if the rumors of a longer range LEAF are true the value of the current short range LEAFs will fall even more.

 

[brian123]

I was checking craigslist for any used LEAFs and came across someone trying to get rid of their 2014 SL LEASE with only 200 miles so far. $210 a month, 35 months remain with nearly all of the 36k miles. Seems good even if I don't get any rebates but curious. I don't know much about taking over a lease. The guy must have put money down to get that low monthly payment I would think.

As for used, the best prices to make it worth while are for 2011 models, often with 20-30k miles with prices around $14-$16k. But is a 2011 a good choice to own used?

One comment on your "Buy a LEAF" scenario: the residual value of $17,500 at three years is wildly optimistic. Three year old LEAFs currently sell for much less than that and if the rumors of a longer range LEAF are true the value of the current short range LEAFs will fall even more.

You are probably right. I'll review used prices again, I suppose I was too optimistic with it being an SV even with quick charge and premium. And if newer vehicles get much better range, then the value is shot. Kind of reminds me of old fashion SLR cameras. They were expensive as heck, but their value. Then when DSLRs came along, you still pay a ton, but their value dropped like a rock due to the improvements with every new version. This is going to effect electric cars the same way until range is no longer an issue with each new year.

 

[GRA]

One comment on your "Buy a LEAF" scenario: the residual value of $17,500 at three years is wildly optimistic. Three year old LEAFs currently sell for much less than that and if the rumors of a longer range LEAF are true the value of the current short range LEAFs will fall even more.

Also, if you keep the Mustang but start using a bike for your commute, you'll reduce the operating costs on the Mustang as well as the end mileage when you sell it, plus you may be able to get a lower insurance rate (I did) for the reduced annual mileage.

 

[RonDawg]

I was checking craigslist for any used LEAFs and came across someone trying to get rid of their 2014 SL LEASE with only 200 miles so far. $210 a month, 35 months remain with nearly all of the 36k miles. Seems good even if I don't get any rebates but curious. I don't know much about taking over a lease. The guy must have put money down to get that low monthly payment I would think.

If you can get the lessor (likely NMAC) to approve that deal, and that there's nothing wrong with the car, I'd go for it. That is an excellent lease price for an SL.

What you would do is contact the lessor and see if they will agree to let you take over the lease. If they allow it, you would have to qualify as if you were leasing a brand new car. In the case of NMAC, the original lessee is still responsible for making sure the payments are on time and the car is returned at lease end in satisfactory condition and mileage.

 

[brian123]

I was checking craigslist for any used LEAFs and came across someone trying to get rid of their 2014 SL LEASE with only 200 miles so far. $210 a month, 35 months remain with nearly all of the 36k miles. Seems good even if I don't get any rebates but curious. I don't know much about taking over a lease. The guy must have put money down to get that low monthly payment I would think.

If you can get the lessor (likely NMAC) to approve that deal, and that there's nothing wrong with the car, I'd go for it. That is an excellent lease price for an SL.

What you would do is contact the lessor and see if they will agree to let you take over the lease. If they allow it, you would have to qualify as if you were leasing a brand new car. In the case of NMAC, the original lessee is still responsible for making sure the payments are on time and the car is returned at lease end in satisfactory condition and mileage.

The lessee has since posted it on Swapalease. It shows the Lessor is NMAC and shows a $249 application fee, $0 transfer fees. I haven't heard back yet from craigslist, so I may have to pay $60 to sign up to contact the seller through Swapalease. The listing is now featured, so they person must be spending money on that site.

So, based on your last comment on the original lessee's responsibility, there's really no true transfer of the lease to where the new lessee is fully responsible? I also figure I'd want the car inspected for an visible or hidden damage that might come up up returning the vehicle at the end of the lease. Though, I doubt that's the reason why, but it must of been a big mistake to find the car didn't fit their needs after only 180 miles on the car.

 

[RonDawg]

If the lease terms are agreeable to you, it might be worth the $60 fee. And if it does fall through, you might find something else you like.

Holding the original lessee responsible even after someone else assumes it is NMAC's way of discouraging this. Yes I would want to do a physical inspection and a test drive before agreeing to take over the lease.

As far as why the car is already not wanted, it could be:

• Range turned out to not be what they expected or were told by the dealer
• Unexpected job changes cause a commute longer than the car can handle
• Unexpected job loss/reduction or other financial issue causing the payments to be unaffordable

 

[brian123]

From the Craigslist ad for the $210 2014 SL Lease, it appears it was work commute distance issue.

I got a reply through Swapalease asking about the lease-end buyout, it's $13,501. That's not too bad of an option to have later if the car still fits my needs by then, is it not?

I'm about to call a local dealer after asking about Costco pricing, so I how to get a few numbers from them soon.

 

[RonDawg]

With a $13501 residual and a $210/month lease payment, that person had to have put down an enormous down payment on that car.

That's actually a very realistic residual. Mine for example is $16,800 after 3 years and 36k miles, and from the earliest Leafs coming off-lease recently that is a horribly unrealistic figure.

Keep in mind you're unlikely to get that kind of lease payment on a new SL unless you also put down a very big chunk of cash.

 

[brian123]

With a $13501 residual and a $210/month lease payment, that person had to have put down an enormous down payment on that car.

That's actually a very realistic residual. Mine for example is $16,800 after 3 years and 36k miles, and from the earliest Leafs coming off-lease recently that is a horribly unrealistic figure.

Keep in mind you're unlikely to get that kind of lease payment on a new SL unless you also put down a very big chunk of cash.

I suppose if I wanted to take the safest route, this lease would be the best choice. If the LEAF doesn't work out or if there are much greater range cars out, I can turned it in. If nothing new is drastically different, the buyout is a decent used price and I'll know first hand if the car is worth it since I was the one driving it.

Got a quick price quote from my Costco inquiry:
2014 SV
Premium Pack + Charge Pach

MSRP $35,520
Discount: $1,840
Price: $33,680 (Invoice $33,154) So $426 over Invoice

NMAC CASH: $2500

Final Sale Price: $31180

Tax $2574
License Fee $320
Elec Filing Fee 26
Doc Fee 80
A 26 fee, description was cutoff, possibly tire fee.

Total: $34188.95
0% for 72 months

With 0 down, 72 at 0%, the dealer's quote sheet shows $509.96 a month.
Though, wouldn't the total divided 72 times be 474.84?

For trade in, an optimistic $3500 brings the total to $30688.95, or 426 a month. Hopefully there's some wiggle room to get that down a bit more.

$426 is more than my Mustang $384 payment, but I'd save $20 in insurance from Geico. So my cost is $22 more a month with the LEAF, but I'd save in gas. With $13000 in credits and rebates, that should have the car mostly paid off after 3 years. 3 years from now, I think I'd rather have a 3 year old Leaf with warranty just about paid off compared to a 6 year old mustang.

LEASE:

The swap lease may be the easiest route for qualification, free up income instantly, but I would have to take time to sell Mustang Privately. With zero rebates, despite the low monthly price, it's not the top long term deal compared to buying or keeping the mustang. Also will cost about $20 more a month insurance as a lease compared to finance from my quotes.

QUICK CHARGE
The dealer salesman I talked to on the phone knew about the Nissan branded quick charger that recently showed up on plugshare. It appears a guy installed it at his shop and you can use it for free. He lists his number if you need it, as it appears he likes to turn it off to save power initially, but working on ways to make it easier to access. That station is 13.6 miles from my home, so I could trickle charge most the time and use that station when needed. Also, the salesman said Nissan may be subsidizing a quick charger at the dealership from what he heard in the next few months while he was at the San Joaquin air quality district office.

Going to check out the dealership in town to try out the LEAF this Saturday morning and work on the numbers.

 

[RonDawg]

Since your 'stang is relatively new, you may want to consider at least getting an offer from CarMax. You may want to contact a few Ford dealers to see if they are willing to buy the car from you as well; my father did that with his 10 y/o Honda CR-V when he was no longer able to drive. While one Honda dealer was not interested at all unless we also bought a new car from them, another gave us $500 above CarMax's surprisingly generous offer.

Also, you mention $2500 NMAC cash. I hope that's independent of the $2500 CVRP rebate, because you have to apply for that separately, and currently the program is out of money. Anybody who has bought a qualifying car but have not yet gotten their rebate likely won't get their money until after July 1 when the next year's budget starts.

 

[brian123]

Since your 'stang is relatively new, you may want to consider at least getting an offer from CarMax. You may want to contact a few Ford dealers to see if they are willing to buy the car from you as well; my father did that with his 10 y/o Honda CR-V when he was no longer able to drive. While one Honda dealer was not interested at all unless we also bought a new car from them, another gave us $500 above CarMax's surprisingly generous offer.

Also, you mention $2500 NMAC cash. I hope that's independent of the $2500 CVRP rebate, because you have to apply for that separately, and currently the program is out of money. Anybody who has bought a qualifying car but have not yet gotten their rebate likely won't get their money until after July 1 when the next year's budget starts.

That's a good idea to check around.

Carmax, I checked them out the moment I started toying with the idea of selling. I heard it could be hit or miss, worse than KBB trade in value, or better. Sadly, they wanted to offer $16k, far below KBB trade in.

The dealer I bought it from recently had a buy back event, usual marketing to get me in another car, so I passed at the time. Though, now I notice they will buy used cars even if you don't buy a car from them. I'll have to check around. I hope the market isnt so bad that the KBB numbers were not too optimistic.

TRUECAR,

So after the quote from the dealer, I decided to check truecar and see what certificates I can get at certified dealers. I printed out two prices from Bay Area certified dealers with 3600-4400 off MSRP for my config. That's much better than the 1800 or so off msrp at my local dealer before the 2500 nmac cash back.

I don't think the cash back is related to the rebate based off the information I've read and how it's calculated in the price at purchase.


UPDATE:

The lease swap I've been looking at is not an SL, not even an SV. Glad I didn't pay the $60 for Swapalease just yet to fully contact the person. Instead, I had requested photos with one of the preset questions. The response was they were submitted to Swapalease and should be up soon. They are up, and it looks like a cloth interior with basic radio that comes with an S model.

http://www.swapalease.com/lease/details/2014-Nissan-LEAF.aspx?salid=841116" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;