The Secret Fear Of The World's Biggest Auto Companies

[EdmondLeaf]

I still need a car, but I try to use it as little as possible, carpooling and avoiding unnecessary trips. If it will be possible to use public transport to commute to work, one family car will be gone.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/micheli...et-fear-of-the-worlds-biggest-auto-companies/

For generations, American car buying has been guided by one grand philosophy: which one do I want? But now, another question has begun to percolate: do I need a car at all

 

[dgpcolorado]

I still need a car, but I try to use it as little as possible, carpooling and avoiding unnecessary trips. If it will be possible to use public transport to commute to work, one family car will be gone.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/micheli...et-fear-of-the-worlds-biggest-auto-companies/

For generations, American car buying has been guided by one grand philosophy: which one do I want? But now, another question has begun to percolate: do I need a car at all

Perhaps I am biased, having lived only in sprawling western cities, but I don't buy it. There are relatively few cities in the USA with public transportation that is adequate for doing without a car entirely. And the idea that bicycles will take over seems really far-fetched. I bicycle commuted my entire career, even in snow, rain, and zero degree weather. By the end I saw lots of people who would bicycle commute some of the time but few who did it every day regardless of weather as I did.

If anything, the fact that cars have become more reliable and last much longer, than they did four decades ago, is more of a threat to car sales than large numbers of people doing without cars entirely.

IMHO, of course.

 

[EdmondLeaf]

It is true that beside few cities, public transportation is non existing. Long distance is only plane, because rail system is obsolete and very inefficient. If I will want to use train to go to Dallas it is not only more expensive than fuel efficient car, but also will take longer. I also agree that more reliable and long lasting cars are reducing sale numbers.

 

[TickTock]

We are one small techno-leap away from full immersion, matrix-style, VR. At that point a much larger portion of the population will have little reason to drive anywhere except to get their kids to their soccer games. The streets will be left for utility workers, UPS vans, and pizza delivery trucks. Not going to happen tomorrow but it is closer than many realize.

 

[evnow]

.. except to get their kids to their soccer games.

Hmmm ... Kinect ?

 

[gsleaf]

A much larger portion of the population will have little reason to drive anywhere except to get their kids to their soccer games. The streets will be left for utility workers, UPS vans, and pizza delivery trucks. Not going to happen tomorrow but it is closer than many realize.

The streets may be left to self-driving cars. Forbes is predicting they'll take over by 2040. I imagine that's going to have a profound effect on traffic.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/eco-nomics/2012/09/25/self-driving-cars-will-take-over-by-2040/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[evnow]

The streets may be left to self-driving cars. Forbes is predicting they'll take over by 2040. I imagine that's going to have a profound effect on traffic.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/eco-nomics/2012/09/25/self-driving-cars-will-take-over-by-2040/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Just as they predicted in 1950 that we would all be driving flying cars by 2000.

The accuracy of long term predictions is pathetic.

 

[gsleaf]

The accuracy of long term predictions is pathetic.

I think you're mistaken on this one. Self-driving cars are MUCH more feasible than flying cars.

"In August 2012, the team announced that they have completed over 300,000 autonomous-driving miles accident-free, typically have about a dozen cars on the road at any given time, and are starting to test them with single drivers instead of in pairs."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_driverless_car" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

self driving EV's are the nearish future, IMHO!

 

[evnow]

I think you're mistaken on this one. Self-driving cars are MUCH more feasible than flying cars.

I'm not talking about technical feasibility. We are talking about replacing 1 Billion cars that are running around the planet now.

self driving EV's are the nearish future, IMHO!

All it takes is one accident to make that a perpetual "5 years from now".

 

[GRA]

I think you're mistaken on this one. Self-driving cars are MUCH more feasible than flying cars.

I'm not talking about technical feasibility. We are talking about replacing 1 Billion cars that are running around the planet now.

self driving EV's are the nearish future, IMHO!

All it takes is one accident to make that a perpetual "5 years from now".

While I have no doubt that there will be accidents (and the inevitable feeding frenzy by ambulance chasers) while the technology goes through its teething phase, I think self-driving cars will be such a boon to our society that people will accept the accidents. After all, the number of distractions drivers have on the road is huge, now, and is only going to get worse. Freeing up commute time for something more productive or just more fun will be a big benefit.

Where I see the biggest benefit coming from self-driving cars is the positive effect it will have on senior citizens' lives. We have an aging population, and for almost all of them losing their license means losing their independence. I saw this with my dad, who had his license pulled at 88, and his world immediately got much smaller and became dependent on others. I have no doubt that the crippling of his social life hastened his physical and mental decline, as he was almost trapped in his home except when I could drive him someplace. Self-driving cars will eliminate this problem, and I'd be all for them for that reason alone, aside from the fact that they'll probably be safer drivers than at least 75% of the population.

 

[Stoaty]

While I have no doubt that there will be accidents (and the inevitable feeding frenzy by ambulance chasers) while the technology goes through its teething phase, I think self-driving cars will be such a boon to our society that people will accept the accidents. After all, the number of distractions drivers have on the road is huge, now, and is only going to get worse. Freeing up commute time for something more productive or just more fun will be a big benefit.

My guess is that many thousands of lives would be saved:

--Don't have to worry about a car getting a DUI for alcohol, drugs or prescription meds.
--Don't have to worry about the car making unsafe lane changes, following to close, or reacting with rage when someone cuts it off
--Cars reflexes will be much faster than a humans
--Car will never be distracted by talking on cell phone, texting, eating, putting on make-up, lighting a cigarette, etc.
--Car won't be too tired to drive safely or fall asleep at the wheel

 

[SSS]

The absolute need for 100% reliability is an insurmountable reality now. What happens when the system is down? Will our personal driving skills be as sharp as they need to be, especially after we have surrendered them to autonomous systems? The old adage "use it or lose it" applies to my other skills, how about driving skills?
Just because we can do it doesn't imply should.

 

[Stoaty]

The absolute need for 100% reliability is an insurmountable reality now. What happens when the system is down?

Hopefully, the car would shut down, same as if the car's computer is "down". In that future, it will be considered too risky to allow a mere human to pilot a several thousand pound vehicle down the road at 60 MPH. I just hope Skynet is not involved.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Headline News

"Self Driving Car System Awards contract to Carwings"

actually, I see self driving cars starting to take over MUCH sooner than most are predicting with the start of mass adoption in this decade. expect some small to medium pilot program deployments within the next 2-4 years.

 

[Herm]

Taxis will be the most impacted.. expect taxi trip costs to drop 50%, which will further affect car ownership

 

[dgpcolorado]

Is the infrastructure really ready for self-driving cars? Can the systems really avoid potholes and flooded intersections? How about snow and ice? Having driven a rough, muddy, dirt road yesterday I wonder about how perfect the roads need to be for self-driving cars and how much it would cost to get them up to standard. It doesn't appear that we have the will in the USA to spend the money to repair the current roads and bridges. Will self-driving systems be limited to just a few roads? If so, is that a new "range limitation"?

Sorry, this seems like the usual pie-in-the-sky prediction; I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[GRA]

Is the infrastructure really ready for self-driving cars? Can the systems really avoid potholes and flooded intersections? How about snow and ice? Having driven a rough, muddy, dirt road yesterday I wonder about how perfect the roads need to be for self-driving cars and how much it would cost to get them up to standard. It doesn't appear that we have the will in the USA to spend the money to repair the current roads and bridges. Will self-driving systems be limited to just a few roads? If so, is that a new "range limitation"?

Sorry, this seems like the usual pie-in-the-sky prediction; I'll believe it when I see it.

They will certainly be limited to a few urban areas at the start, but as the systems improve I expect the range of conditions they can handle will increase as well. And where they are really needed is urban stop and go and interstate driving, not two lane rural roads or jeep roads. Here's an idea of the state-of-the-art a year ago:

http://www.wired.com/magazine/2012/01/ff_autonomouscars/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[timhebb]

...Sorry, this seems like the usual pie-in-the-sky prediction; I'll believe it when I see it.

I think you can believe it. Google and other developers driving the technology (pun not intended) are pretty much there already. I strongly suspect the tech will be granular enough to sense and account for potholes and other road conditions. No question automated driving will prove, statistically, vastly safer than human driving. How could it not? We are pretty bad at it in general...plus, it would be a big mistake to underestimate Google.

Once regulators, legislators and insurers understand how well it works, it will be on the fast track to wide and rapid adoption. And drivers? As soon as they realize they can text, Facebook and Twitter to their heart's content while on the road, not to mention watch TV, sleep, read, consume or create content, etc., it will be a done deal.

The primary variable affecting adoption rates in my mind will be cost. But again, at a certain threshold of affordability, legislators may render that a moot point by making the technology compulsory, in view of its safety benefits, like seat belts. The "network effect" of virtually all cars on the road being self-driving will move the safety needle even closer to a perfect record; human drivers will come to be seen as the weakest link in the safety chain, and may eventually be outlawed except under exceptional circumstances. Maybe a license to permit manual driving will become a precious, expensive luxury at some point in time.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Why would the pothole be unexpected? I guess the first time it would be but crowdsourcing would flag the condition and besides we Humans hit potholes all the time.

Th I s reminds me of why EVs suppossdly dont work. Its the 5% crowd making 95% of the noise. A huge reduction in traffic deaths is the most likely result and we are concerned over potholes?