GRA
Well-known member
Nope, BEVs are about 5 years ahead in the development/deployment cycle, as I've said numerous times. I assume you meant 'FCEV' rather than 'PHEV' in the last two sentences, because PHEV makes no sense in that context. Presuming that's correct, H2 infrastructure is too expensive now anywhere, but as with most things, economies of scale and the learning curve bring costs down, and what really matters is the cost per vehicle served. Since the obvious place to install H2 fueling infrastructure is at existing gas stations (Shell is installing H2 at three stations in S.F., as well as several other existing stations), the facilities are already owned by people who are familiar with the business model. Going forward, I fully expect the energy companies and station dealer associations to be the major retail players, IF sustainable H2 and its infrastructure can be made cheap enough to be commercially viable. In a country with low gas and electricity prices like the U.S. that's questionable, but in other countries with higher prices and a high % of intermittent renewables that are often in excess (Denmark, Germany etc.) it's more likely.downeykp said:Gra, your post makes it sound like BEVs and FCEVs are equals in the marketplace and that BEV is just getting started. I am not sure what parameters you are using but the former is becoming more mainstream every day. While the latter has seen better days. I, like the majority of the driving public see PHEV as non viable. Infrastructure is going to be way too costly for PHEV to ever make it in the heartland.
In the meantime, while it's dependent on subsidies, I think we need limited deployment on a large enough scale, in a wide enough variety of climates and use cases to make sure the fuel cell tech itself meets customer requirements while continuing to reduce its cost and show that we can increase production, and there are enough countries (in Europe and Asia), regions (New England) and/or states (California) now involved in H2/FCEV deployment to provide this. I think FCEVs will likely see their major transport use for now in commercial long-haul trucks, and locomotives used on low traffic routes, and maybe marine use; high-usage MHE is already an area where they have a large presence. I think private FCEVs are more dependent on how fast and how far BEVs and their infrastructure develop, as BEVs have more of a lead there, but the best operating cases for the two techs are dissimilar enough for now that they appeal to private customers with very different situations and priorities.