Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

[cwerdna]

Maybe now that Model 3 demand is softening Tesla will start targeting 1st generation Leaf owners with a trade up program. They could refurb them for less than than Nissan is currently willing to do and resell them in other markets.

The only trade-up program that makes sense - for both Tesla and you - is for you to buy a Tesla.

Tesla isn't in the used car business and has no desire to do so. They offer only wholesale prices on trade-ins.

Uh, yeah. I think you missed the point I was trying to make. It would be a trade in program against new Tesla cars and they could offload the Leafs in a grey market that they don’t currently service. I would guess if they don’t do it someone wanting to buy EV mindshare might (like VW group). With 400k early adopters Leafs sold it’s a target rich environment for some smart marketer.

duckgeek: I suspect you're overestimating the value of used Leafs. 24 kWh Leafs are not worth very much, esp. if they're down a couple capacity bars. '11 and '12 Leafs on their original packs are nearly worthless (say $4K or less).

I have a 5/2013 built '13 Leaf SV w/premium package now at 64.1K miles and 11 capacity bars still. When I was at around 63.5K miles, the best offer I got for it was $5K (from Carmax and Shift), so far. I took it to 3 Nissan dealers and essentially, they didn't want it:
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=550606#p550606
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=551302#p551302
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=552055#p552055

Even if a vehicle were to be transported to somewhere else with possibly higher value, there's the transportation cost, overhead and inventory risk the buyer has to take. I can't see why Tesla would want to bother with this. They have their hands full as it is. Seems like a good reason for Tesla to partner w/Manheim (which is the rumor) to help handle used Teslas from lease returns and trade ins.

I've put it up at work for $6700 and only got 2 inquiries. One guy I actually worked with for years but wanted CA HOV privileges from his questions in email. My car is of no help on that. The other guy apparently was an '11 Leaf driver and now changed his car in our work EV registry to a '15 e-Golf (he'd previously been asking around about e-Golfs), so I guess that's what he got. I lowered the price to $6500 and have gotten 0 replies.

Used JDM Leafs have already been sent all over the place to mostly RHD markets. They seem to pop up in places like Sri Lanka, for instance.

 

[jvierra]

I was an early adopter of the 2011 Nissan Leaf based on my strong convictions on global warning and the importance of green energy. I was fully aware of how crappy an 80 mile battery was, but I firmly believed that technology would improve over time and that a few years down the road I would be able to buy an upgraded battery to make my original investment worth it. While I have gotten 80K miles out of my leaf dealing with the constant issues with range (most people would not put up with the things I've done to get places in this car) and overall the car has been quite reliable - now that my range is down to 45-50 miles it's become far too limited to be useful for anything but the shortest around town trips. To say I have been incredibly disappointed in Nissan for complete lack of support for the buyers of their product, that would be a tremendous understatement.

A couple years back I got a call from Nissan about the ability to buy a $5500 new battery with the same range limitations of the original battery I laughed at them. At the time my car would make it 55 miles. Why would I pay $5500 for 20 extra miles of range? That's paying $275 for each additional mile of range I am purchasing.

Now they want $8500 new battery with the same crappy range original battery. Are you kidding? Why would I pay $8500 for 30 extra miles of range? That's paying $283 for each additional mile of range I am purchasing. Invest $8500 in a 8 year old car to end up with 70 miles of range? Are they out of their minds?

I almost bought the 2018 Leaf and it's 150 mile battery. Luckily I decided to wait for the 2019 220 mile battery. Luckily Nissan took so long to get that out that the availability of the M3 was good enough CONSIDER buying one without wait. The fully loaded 2019 Nissan long range costs about 50K out the door. The M3 rebate is less so I believe the final out the door price of Nissan is about $15K less than a fully loaded M3.

I will admit It took a while to get over the out the door cost of $59K for a fully loaded M3, but when I did the math and saw that I was getting 325 miles of range for $181/mile + the fact I was getting a brand new car that is WAY better than anything Nissan makes. The M3 is WAY faster, better looking, handles better, fantastic controls, full self driving capabilities, and has significant sex appeal and coolness - and MOST IMPORTANTLY tons of range that allow me to use the car like a normal car on LONG TRIPS thanks to super charging network - not this golf cart range BS Leaf.

I have been driving my M3 for 2 months now and it's the best decision I have ever made. A huge factor to me that I didn't understand when I bought the car is, Tesla actually gives a damn about their customer and they constantly send out free OTA updates that add significant improvements to the car. Since I purchased the car here are NEW FREE features I have received:
- 5% more power
- 15 extra miles of range
- Excellent Sentry mode security feature
- improved auto pilot
- higher speed super charging

Another HUGE benefit of having a huge battery - it will virtually never wear out because I only charge my battery to 66% most days - which STILL gives me a massive 217 miles of range. And most days I drive between 60 and 100 miles. This means my battery is spending most of the time between 66% charge and 33% charge which means - I will probably get 500K miles out of this battery - while maintaining a range of OVER 250 miles !!!!!!

When you have a too small battery you have no choice but to fully charge it and run it down to close to empty which degrades a lithium ion battery. As we have found out from Nissan, the cost of dealing with a degraded battery is INSANE - making spending 59K on truly modern car from a company that is not stuck in the stone age of automotive product design an incredibly SMART SANE decision. Bottom line: if you want your battery to last, you have have a battery with at least DOUBLE and even better TRIPLE the capacity of your longer days of normal driving. This allows your normal driving to put very little stress on the battery. AND combined with very high rate super charging gives you the ability to do truly long range trips.

I was not a Tesla fan-boy until I owned one. That extra 15K you spend to get a much better, much longer range car, that the company actually will support you and keep giving you free improvements while the car sits overnight in your driveway? And you can reasonably use the car on a cross country trip. That's the best freaking 15K you will EVER spend. The M3 might be the last car I have to buy.

Nissan - I was I big fan of yours until the experience of owning your car completely turned me off. By completely ignoring the needs of your customer you have turned a fan into someone willing to spend an hour writing this message warning people about your products. Do not buy a Leaf until you test drive a Tesla. An M3 is like being in the next century compared to Nissan - the amount of better product you get for 33% more cost is an absolute steal. You will never have to deal with Nissan wanting absurd amounts of money to fix their crappy batteries. </ Nissan-Pissed-Me-Off-Rant>

 

[LeftieBiker]

A couple years back I got a call from Nissan about the ability to buy a $5500 new battery with the same limitations of the original battery I laughed at them. At the time my car would make it 55 miles. Why would I pay $5500 for 20 extra miles of range? That's paying $275 for each additional mile of range I am purchasing.

One or two corrections: the replacement battery would have been a "Lizard Pack" with much more durability than the original 2011 "Canary Pack." Also, to get only 20 miles of range back, you would have had to install the new battery with only about 1.5 capacity bars lost. Otherwise it would have been more like 35-40 miles of range regained. I pretty much agree with you otherwise, but I don't want people considering a new pack to get wrong information.

 

[jvierra]

Thanks for the point the upgraded battery being a better chemistry for heat - but unfortunately not any longer range.

My 2011 Leaf with 80K miles still amazingly has 8 bars of capacity. I live in San Francisco Bay Area near the bay which keeps year round temperatures near perfect for batteries. I always charged the battery to 80% and only up to 100% in the hour before I left. So I believe most peoples experience with their Leaf battery being in warmer/colder climates is probably not as good as my experience.

Yes, having driven 80K miles in a Leaf have truly taught me how to drive like an old lady and wring every mile of range out of a Leaf. So by driving 55 MPH on level ground can get me 50 miles. Getting 4 more bars will be 50% more miles so lets call is 75 miles.

If I let my wife or daughter drive the car, I'm pretty sure they wouldn't make it 30 miles on my 8 bars - being not as patient as I am. LOL

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Thanks for the point the upgraded battery being a better chemistry for heat - but unfortunately not any longer range.

My 2011 Leaf with 80K miles still amazingly has 8 bars of capacity. I live in San Francisco Bay Area near the bay which keeps year round temperatures near perfect for batteries. I always charged the battery to 80% and only up to 100% in the hour before I left. So I believe most peoples experience with their Leaf battery being in warmer/colder climates is probably not as good as my experience.

Yes, having driven 80K miles in a Leaf have truly taught me how to drive like an old lady and wring every mile of range out of a Leaf. So by driving 55 MPH on level ground can get me 50 miles. Getting 4 more bars will be 50% more miles so lets call is 75 miles.

If I let my wife or daughter drive the car, I'm pretty sure they wouldn't make it 30 miles on my 8 bars - being not as patient as I am. LOL

Not sure why anyone would have thought that Nissan would step up with battery replacements. They are in the biz of new cars, not extending used ones. I knew that well before day one. But did expect the aftermarket to have stepped up but now realizing well after the fact that that was not really possible either due to an overwhelming demand for cells and few players that can do them.

Now that the money is obvious, we have new cell manufacturers stepping up or refocusing their biz but cell shortages still exist today so the aftermarket is simply pushed back that much more.

Soon....maybe, you might have some options but it seem like "soon" has been there for a long time.

 

[cwerdna]

To say I have been incredibly disappointed in Nissan for complete lack of support for the buyers of their product, that would be a tremendous understatement.

A couple years back I got a call from Nissan about the ability to buy a $5500 new battery with the same range limitations of the original battery I laughed at them. At the time my car would make it 55 miles. Why would I pay $5500 for 20 extra miles of range? That's paying $275 for each additional mile of range I am purchasing.

Now they want $8500 new battery with the same crappy range original battery. Are you kidding? Why would I pay $8500 for 30 extra miles of range? That's paying $283 for each additional mile of range I am purchasing. Invest $8500 in a 8 year old car to end up with 70 miles of range? Are they out of their minds?

At the time the $5500 was announced, that seemed reasonable. But low $7Ks to $8500 is absolutely absurd. Even before the price increase, the 30 kWh Leaf existed and owners asked for in various places (here and at a Nissan EVent in Nor Cal w/the marketing guy there) for the ability to pay more to get a 30 kWh battery instead of just another 24 kWh battery. Obviously, the call went unanswered.

I almost bought the 2018 Leaf and it's 150 mile battery. Luckily I decided to wait for the 2019 220 mile battery. Luckily Nissan took so long to get that out that the availability of the M3 was good enough CONSIDER buying one without wait. The fully loaded 2019 Nissan long range costs about 50K out the door. The M3 rebate is less so I believe the final out the door price of Nissan is about $15K less than a fully loaded M3.

Not sure what you mean by "rebate". Federal tax credit on Nissans EVs is still $7500 whereas it's $3750 on Teslas at the moment.

I ended up buying a '19 Bolt instead before GM's tax credit got reduced from $7500 to $3750 instead of waiting for Leaf Plus. Bolts were being heavily discounted (over $6K off MSRP at the time). Price before tax and license for me was in the low $37Ks for a load Premier (the higher trim, got it w/DC FC inlet, infotainment package and driver confidence II) and before $7500 Federal tax credit. I'd ruled out the 3 for numerous reasons. At the time, the cheapest 3 was the MR at $44K and I don't buy black cars, making it $46K for an acceptable color. Then, minus $3750. This made it a LOT more than a Bolt w/the 3 having some things I do NOT want (e.g. glass roof) and also lacking numerous things I do want and use on my Leaf and Bolt (e.g. Around View Monitor, AM radio, SiriusXM radio, aux in jack).

Prior to 4/1/2019 (the day tax credit on GM EVs/PHEVs went down to $3750), there'd been reports of Bolts going for about $10K off MSRP (e.g. https://www.chevybolt.org/forum/55-2017-chevy-bolt-ev-pricing-dealers-orders-tracking/32263-how-sell-my-17-bolt-quickly-trade-19-a-3.html#post491305).

I will admit It took a while to get over the out the door cost of $59K for a fully loaded M3, but when I did the math and saw that I was getting 325 miles of range for $181/mile + the fact I was getting a brand new car that is WAY better than anything Nissan makes. The M3 is WAY faster, better looking, handles better, fantastic controls, full self driving capabilities, and has significant sex appeal and coolness - and MOST IMPORTANTLY tons of range that allow me to use the car like a normal car on LONG TRIPS thanks to super charging network - not this golf cart range BS Leaf.

I have been driving my M3 for 2 months now and it's the best decision I have ever made. A huge factor to me that I didn't understand when I bought the car is, Tesla actually gives a damn about their customer and they constantly send out free OTA updates that add significant improvements to the car. Since I purchased the car here are NEW FREE features I have received:
- 5% more power
- 15 extra miles of range
- Excellent Sentry mode security feature
- improved auto pilot
- higher speed super charging

Another HUGE benefit of having a huge battery - it will virtually never wear out because I only charge my battery to 66% most days - which STILL gives me a massive 217 miles of range. And most days I drive between 60 and 100 miles. This means my battery is spending most of the time between 66% charge and 33% charge which means - I will probably get 500K miles out of this battery - while maintaining a range of OVER 250 miles !!!!!!

Obviously, the 3 is superior in many aspects that you point out but it's not clear if they have a sustainable business. They just lost over $700 million last quarter. Since they started publicly reporting, they've racked up cumulative net losses (including their few profitable quarters) of over $6 billion. They also have over $9 billion in debt.

That said, I wish other automakers would also issue OTA updates that deliver real improvements or even new futures.

However, given Tesla's lackluster reliability record, I wouldn't be surprised if your pack fails at least once and requires replacement before 500K miles, or some very expensive things fail prior to 500K miles, making it illogical or uneconomical to continue to keep the car. I'm genuinely interested to see if I'm right/wrong on this.

 

[SageBrush]

And most days I drive between 60 and 100 miles.

How did a LEAF ever cover your use ?

 

[SageBrush]

Not sure why anyone would have thought that Nissan would step up with battery replacements.

Now THAT is funny. You should go back to your mountain of posts explaining why Nissan's policy of giving discounts off the $5,500 battery replacement cost was entirely rational and expected. I told you it was a marketing stunt but you were quite sure that $2,000 pack replacements was here to stay.

To your other point: one important way to sell new cars is to not turn past customers into detractors.

 

[SageBrush]

However, given Tesla's lackluster reliability record,

Says the guy with a Chevy, and GM 'customer support.'

 

[cwerdna]

However, given Tesla's lackluster reliability record,

Says the guy with a Chevy, and GM 'customer support.'

I'm no fan of GM and we'll have to see about their "support".

FWIW, right now in Consumer Reports, the Bolt has a predicted reliability rating of 3/5. '17 model year currently receives a 3/5 (there are 5 icons ranging from worst to best). '18 model year receives 5/5. When Bolt reliability results were first known, it was Chevy's most reliable car: https://insideevs.com/news/336118/chevy-bolt-is-chevrolets-most-reliable-vehicle/.

The Model 3 has a 2/5.

Yes, GM reliability overall isn't great but neither is Tesla's.

 

[SageBrush]

FWIW

My problem with CR reliability rankings as you quote them is the lack of weighting. You may care deeply about a panel gap seen with a magnifying glass while I could not care less. I on the other hand know that Tesla will not put my life at risk to save 57 cents*.


* or thereabouts. I was thinking of the ignition switch.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_ignition_switch_recalls

Congrats on supporting a company that is vile and uses your money to block the environmental agenda you presumably care about. They almost make Nissan look adequate.

 

[cwerdna]

I on the other hand know that Tesla will not put my life at risk to save 57 cents*.


* or thereabouts. I was thinking of the ignition switch.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_ignition_switch_recalls

Congrats on supporting a company that is vile and uses your money to block the environmental agenda you presumably care about. They almost make Nissan look adequate.

Tesla has developed a reputation for seeming to avoid wanting to issue recalls for safety defects. Even some long-timers on TMC have observed that. So, I wouldn't be as charitable to jump to that conclusion.

For awhile, some fanboys and others at TMC actively discouraged folks from reporting clear safety defects the owners encountered to NHTSA and would belittle and attack me. No other car forum I've ever been on has behavior like that. Fortunately, it seems like the voice of reason has taken over in that department and folks who now suggest reporting legitimate safety defects to NHTSA are no longer ridiculed.

Besides battery pack or drive unit failures on Model S that sometimes happen while in motion, causing loss of propulsion, here are two (Model S) examples that it seems Tesla isn't too keen on issuing recalls for:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/tesla-upper-control-arm-cracked.96329/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/cracked-forelink.95637/

(same issue but comments on it being a TSB)
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/serious-problem-with-my-2016-model-s.95065/page-2#post-2238459
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/serious-problem-with-my-2016-model-s.95065/page-2#post-2241861

I'm well aware of the GM ignition switch debacle.

Ouch on your last statements. FWIW, I'm not fan of GM and GM business practices were part of what held me be back from wanting to to lease/buy a Volt back in 2013 (when I was deciding on a Leaf vs. Volt). It also didn't help that 3/3 previous GM vehicles in our family weren't very good in terms of reliability. Fast forward to Jan 2019, I frankly didn't see any other good alternative for the $ I was willing to spend on a car for the use cases I had in mind and criteria that were important to me.

You willing to make such statements to every person who bought or leased a GM EV/PHEV? How about the 1st part to every GM vehicle owner/lessee? They sold over 600K vehicles in the US in 1Q 2019 and for 2018, they sold over 8 million vehicles worldwide.

I will admit that whenever I see BRoD-class (Battering Ram of Death) GM trucks and SUVs on the road, I do shudder a bit to think that I've helped enable GM to sell more of them (e.g. CA ZEV credits, CAFE mileage boost, etc.)

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Not sure why anyone would have thought that Nissan would step up with battery replacements.

Now THAT is funny. You should go back to your mountain of posts explaining why Nissan's policy of giving discounts off the $5,500 battery replacement cost was entirely rational and expected. I told you it was a marketing stunt but you were quite sure that $2,000 pack replacements was here to stay.

To your other point: one important way to sell new cars is to not turn past customers into detractors.

Definitely don't remember that. But what I do remember is Nissan's $5500 announcement came as a bit of a shock as the price of the pack was likely much higher. I think Ford was selling replacement packs for roughly $12,000 at the time. But the low price was Nissan's way of saying "ok. so we missed the boat on gen 1 and we are throwing you a bone" well a lot of us thought it was nice and a few took them up on it. For a while, many 2011-12'ers were getting huge discounts up to 90% off. There was no doubt the huge discounts would end.

Now we are in a situation where the pack is likely selling at its true retail value. Battery costs have gone down but supply is still tight which keeps prices higher, blocks 3rd party options, etc. I did think we would have oodles of aftermarket options by now and well didn't consider the manufacturing shortage. That was a mistake. And the shortage has no end in sight. It very well could be another 10 years before we see significant options.

TBT; I think the dealerships have pushed back and the current price of replacement packs includes a cut for them PLUS the install costs.

 

[SageBrush]

There was no doubt the huge discounts would end.

You posted just the opposite, time after time. Here is one example from 8/2017:

16 months ago, I predicted pack prices would drop from $6500 to $3500. I was "wrong" since from a marketing standpoint, it was better to hand out huge discounts instead of cutting the price.

You really should go back and review your posts.

 

[SageBrush]

A completely speculative thought occurred to me that smells about right for Nissan:
The price jump to $8,500 was a response to their inability to import refurbs.

I don't mean retaliatory in any sense. Just that the EPA increased their warranty costs so they cut costs in another place.

 

[Rayavidas]

As you can see guys, the battery costs is almost half price of the car.

Be careful!!

 

[UBUYGAS]

Have you guys seen?, Cleantechnica has written a story about me and my goal of getting 380 miles on my GOM!

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/26/a-2013-nissan-leaf-with-380-miles-of-range/

 

[powersurge]

ok, I went on a rant.

Nissan should not be gouging old owners. Its like not selling replacement engines and transmissions for the sake of selling new cars...

 

[davewill]

This whole issue is a disgust and a disgrace.... Nissan refusing to support these cars is ridiculous. It is like a car company refusing to replace engines or transmissions because they want you to buy another car....

We should all protest as "Leaf Batteries Matter" and contact the politicians and the NTSB.

I don't care what it takes, I am going to find a way to keep my car. Otherwise this will be exactly like the GM EV1 being destroyed by GM's lack of interest in supporting these projects... I will not allow them to KILL MY Electric Car.

Huh? They will not only sell you a new battery, but their dealers will install them. You may not like the price, but most people wouldn't like the price of a new ICE engine installed by the dealer either.

P.S. I find use of the "xxx Matter" for something as trivial as this to be inappropriate.

 

[jlv]

Ah, an article showing a faked GOM reading but not making it clear that is is faked.